Originally Posted by
Arianrhod
Alright. I've taken some time, a couple steps back, and processed all of the information. Here's where I'm at:
The meta as such is thus:
Miracles is widely agreed to be tier S. The pressure exerted by this deck existing warps the format around it.
The tier 1 decks of the format, per the data, are Shardless, Eldrazi, and Grixis Delver. Popular decks that are also putting up results in this meta include DnT, Storm, and RG Lands. We're talking about a GP, so Burn is also worth noting.
This gives us the following list of decks to prepare specifically for:
S:
Miracles
1:
Grixis Delver
Eldrazi
Shardless
1.5:
DnT
Burn
Storm
Lands
I organized them within categories roughly in terms of how many of each I would expect, via metashare. Grixis Delver is more populous than Eldrazi, which is more populous than Shardless. And so.
Eldrazi and Shardless are both very good at combating Miracles. Obviously Miracles has and can adapt, but both of those decks has found a working way to defeat the deck a reasonable amount of the time. Delver is Delver. There is always Delver.
From what I've seen via coverage and research, Eldrazi is combative vs Miracles primarily because of Eye of Ugin. Miracles can stave off Eldrazi through the midgame, but once Eldrazi hits 7 mana and can start activating Eye of Ugin, very bad things start happening to Miracles.
Shardless vs Miracles basically boils down to two things: planeswalker control, and raw card advantage. Ancestral Vision backed with Decay to keep Counterbalance at bay is strong in the matchup, as is Liliana of the Veil and Jace TMS: Miracles has few ways of effectively pressuring planeswalkers g1, although it is effective at protecting its own. Shardless can keep the foot on the gas a little longer than Miracles can, which is important.
There are two takeaways from this: the Colorless builds, to have a functional Miracles matchup, need to leverage Eye of Ugin. There's not really much surprise there, but it does have an effect on how the deck is built. Also, Painful Truths is somewhere we very much want to be vs Miracles.
With this in mind, I've come down personally to either forcing Colorless to work for Columbus, whether it's technically ready or not, or to play Rhinos with a revised mindset and sideboard.
Colorless:
4 Veteran Explorer
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Fauna Shaman
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Fierce Empath
1 Reclamation Sage
1 Oracle of Mul Daya
4 Thought-Knot Seer
1 Reality Smasher
1 Primeval Titan
1 Kozilek, the Great Distortion
1 Ulamog, the Ceaseless Hunger
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Green Sun's Zenith
2 Ancient Stirrings
1 Toxic Deluge
3 Abrupt Decay
3 Pernicious Deed
2 Sensei's Divining Top
1 Ugin, the Spirit Dragon
1 Eye of Ugin
4 Verdant Catacombs
3 Bayou
1 Llanowar Wastes
2 Cloudpost
4 Glimmerpost
4 Forest
1 Swamp
1 Wastes
1 Karakas
1 Phyrexian Tower
sb::
1 Endbringer
2 Warping Wail
2 Thoughtseize
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Reality Smasher
1 Toxic Deluge
1 Golgari Charm
2 Krosan Grip
2 Obstinate Baloth
This is my current take. I'm down to 6 Posts, to keep the Enters-Tapped lands to an absolute minimum. One of my friends locally is suggesting 2 of each Tron piece instead, but I'm not sure I want to be without the lifegain from the Glimmers, which has been roughly as good for me as Cloudposts have been questionable. Ideally, I want to be in a scenario where I have one of: Eye / 2 Cloudposts in play, then Titan for the other two, which will still allow for Eye shenanigans without needing to overly warp the manabase.
I'm trying out some different creature choices here, like Fauna Shaman to turn lategame accelerants into gas. I'm also running more removal. I couldn't quite fit in as much as I wanted -- I was hoping to have a pair of Maelstrom Pulses as well, but there just wasn't any room.
One maindeck Reality Smasher with two more in the board helps the grindy matchups a lot. It's very possible that as I test, the 2nd Primeval finds its way back into the deck. I definitely don't want more than that, though.
Endbringer in the sideboard is something that I think is actually a pretty great option at the moment, for builds that can take advantage of him. He breaks grindy stalled board states wide open, and he makes Show and Tell and Lands both very unhappy if you get him online. Lands can enjoy their nice indestructible endlessly recurring 20/20 that can never attack or block :)
Rhinos:
4 Veteran Explorer
2 Deathrite Shaman
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Deadly Recluse
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Eternal Witness
3 Siege Rhino
1 The Gitrog Monster
1 Sigarda, Host of Herons
2 Baneslayer Angel
1 Dragonlord Dromoka
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Green Sun's Zenith
2 Painful Truths
3 Path to Exile
2 Abrupt Decay
3 Pernicious Deed
3 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Verdant Catacombs
4 Windswept Heath
3 Bayou
2 Savannah
1 Scrubland
3 Forest
2 Plains
1 Swamp
1 Phyrexian Tower
1 Karakas
sb::
1 Sorin, Grim Nemesis
1 Elspeth, Sun's Champion
1 Painful Truths
1 Krosan Grip
1 Golgari Charm
2 Tsunami
2 Surgical Extraction
2 Thoughtseize
2 Ethersworn Canonist
1 Celestial Purge
1 Toxic Deluge
This is my current Columbus prototype while I work on Colorless.
The maindeck is similar to what I had before, with a couple of slight changes. The deck honestly felt pretty great, so I didn't want to change much. Spiderbro still holds the ground early while removal and sweep covers the wide angle. Gitrog replaced Meren. Hypnotoad earned his due respect at Charlotte, and I expect him to continue being great here.
The sideboard is a bit different. I'm not forcing cards to be playable against Miracles. I'm refocusing my lines of attack around a couple of axes, and if that's good enough, great. If it's not, then I'm not going to force the issue any further -- best deck in the format or not, it's still just one deck, and unlike a lot of other decks, it actually lets you play a game, so there's always options for out manuevering and outplaying.
Celestial Purge is something that I think might be a card we've overlooked. It hits Liliana, Deathrite, Blood Moon, Nahiri, and Gurmag to name a few, with a lot of other, more fringe applications. Most relevantly, though, it's an instant speed, 2-mana answer to two very irritating planeswalkers.
I want the third Painful Truths maindeck, but I don't know that I can swing it. I could potentially try shaving to 21 lands to squeeze it in, which is an option.
When rebuilding the deck, I questioned if I wanted the Baneslayers long and hard, and I came to the conclusion that I really just do. Columbus is likely going to be a very aggressive metagame, and Baneslayer stomps all over that.
I also want to look into the possibility of a KotR/Tireless Tracker/Gitrog landfall-styled version at some point. I don't think I'll get around to it before Columbus, but I think that there could very well be something there.