For those new to the whole "Predict" thing, I wrote a primer a few months back, after GP Columbus. Here it is again, for posterity's sake:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...l=1#post956685
Printable View
For those new to the whole "Predict" thing, I wrote a primer a few months back, after GP Columbus. Here it is again, for posterity's sake:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...l=1#post956685
That's a pretty good explanation, though I think you don't quite have a handle on card advantage. You say:Quote:
Originally Posted by Minniehajj
"Predict is a true source of Card Advantage. Now, a deck like miracles doesn't seem to really be wanting for an effect like this, but let's take a closer look: Not much in Miracles actually creates card advantage! Virtual card advantage is created by Counterbalance/Top, while cards like Brainstorm and Jace, the Mind Sculptor (ideally, in conjunction with fetch lands) create actual card advantage. Outside of those two scenarios, however, card advantage is difficult to generate."
Which is not quite correct. Counterbalance is virtual card advantage only if you never counter more than one spell with it, which usually only happens in situations where your opponent has given up or when they have Abrupt Decay in the deck and so are playing towards it. It is a 1-for-1 if you counter a single spell or they Abrupt Decay it immediately, and then once you have countered the second, third, forth spell (etc.), you are generating card advantage by using one card (Counterbalance) to counter multiple other ones. Counterbalance, along with Jace, The Mind Sculptor, are sources of real card advantage. Brainstorm + Fetchland is not card advantage at all, not even virtually. It is a cantrip (CA neutral) that also offers a variable improvement in card quality, which is still extremely valuable but a very different thing from card advantage. It's not actually Ancestral Recall, it just feels like it sometimes. In addition, sweepers like Supreme Verdict and some of the sideboard cards like Izzet Staticaster and Kozilek's Return (and most commonly Terminus, though the cards go back into the deck so the actual card advantage is difficult to quantify) generates card advantage every time you get more than one creature, Snapcaster Mage is usually a 2-for-1 (when it's not just Ambush Viper, and when the opponent spends a card to remove it), and Entreat the Angels and Monastery Mentor generate card advantage (a token is generally considered to be worth about half of a card, and blocking a Delver of Secrets with a surprise 4/4 angel is certainly card advantage), though it's less important there because you usually win the game very shortly after casting one of those.
It's why Miracles is better classified as a control deck, rather than a prison deck. Prison decks generate virtual card advantage by stopping the opponent from ever playing anything. It is virtual because, while the lock pieces are in play, you can be said to be ahead on card advantage, but if they opponent can wriggle out of the lock, then all of those cards can be used again. A control decks generate actual card advantage, answering cards with cards so that there is nothing to wriggle out of. If an opponent runs a test spell or two into Counterbalance before they can get it off of the table, those cards are gone. If they are holding those spells until they can Abrupt Decay a Trinisphere, they still have those cards to play with and have only lost tempo. Point is, Miracles has always had ways to generate card advantage throughout the deck. A 4 Predict, 2 Jace list is about as capable of generating card advantage as a 4 Jace, 1 Predict list from back in the day, but where Jace has a high ceiling and costs 4, Predict has a high floor and a low ceiling and only costs 2. Some see that as an advantage, some prefer to play the more powerful card, but both builds of the deck are about equally good at generating card advantage in the short term. Given enough time, Jace will crush Predict in card advantage, so the choice is largely one of wanting to play a long game or a short one. But Predict didn't suddenly introduce card advantage to Miracles. Miracles has always had card advantage, in a lot of different ways, and is one of just a few decks in the format that actually does, which is why it is one of the few decks in the format that can play a control game.
Anders Theisen has written the second part of his Miracles Primer
https://thelibraryatpendrellvale.com...he-pointy-end/
Sib
To add to benthetenor's post. Brainstorm does more than improve card quality. No other Legacy deck abuses the card Brainstorm more than Miracles because it does double duty at improving your hand quality and putting cards on the top of the deck that you don't want in your hand to begin with. But every Miracles players knows this.
I would definitely say a lot of people don't understand how the card Counterbalance generates card advantage when it's not a lock piece. Counterbalance can also act as a Time Walk in a lot of spots too. For example - I go Island pass, opponent goes Land, Deathrite. I then go Island, Counterbalance, pass. Some percentage of players will throw a spell into the Counterbalance where you get a percentage shot of blind flipping. Another percentage of players will leave up Abrupt Decay mana, where you then get a virtual Time Walk which is incredibly useful in the early turns of the game so that you get to establish your mana base and set up your next plays of the game.
I'd like to discuss the merits of Null Rod in the sideboard of Miracles, primarily as a mirror-breaker, but with obvious power against Storm decks, DnT, and even Belcher.
LordofthePit23 5-0'd with a list like this, demonstrating at least some potential viability: http://magic.wizards.com/en/articles...gue-2017-03-16
Null Rod does seem like gas vs mud decks too. And if it 5-0 a league it must be good right?
Not necessarily. That being said, it's an interesting experiment but not one that I think is worth it. SDT is just too good in the mirror.Quote:
Originally Posted by JohnOfTheCool
So, here are a few reasons why it can be good in the mirror, specifically in the 4 Predict shell:Quote:
Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual
- When both player's Tops are shut off, you are essentially crippling both player's deck-manipulation abilities. However, when you have 4 Predict and they don't, you suddenly have a drastic advantage in terms of controlling your draws, especially with revealed cards from both their Counterbalance and yours. Your CB can reveal a card to one spell, and when they try to cast another of a different CMC, you can Predict that card away to get a fresh reveal. Even better, you can Predict their cards away to help resolve your own spells.
- When they have Mentors and you don't, shutting down Tops is actually more asymmetric than it may seem at first, since Top accentuates Mentor's power so much, and while is nice to have in order to Entreat on the end step, is not strictly necessary. Besides, you can still trigger your entreat on their end step via a Brainstorm or Predict.
- If you have a CB/Top lock in play, you're not obligated to play the Null Rod if you see it. Just use it as a CMC 2 to flip to CB, or shuffle / Predict it away. Meanwhile, if they have an active Top and you don't, you can now just slam a Null Rod and negate their advantage.
- EE is frequently used as a catch-all in the Miracles mirror. LordofthePit's list doesn't play any of this card, and just shuts down your opponent's EEs. Your Angels just got a lot safer.
I'm not saying Null Rod is the "hottest new tech" for the Miracles mirror, necessarily, but I am saying it might not be quite as bad as it looks at first glance.
Have you tried slashing green for gaddock teeg and choke?Quote:
Originally Posted by MXG
Slippery slope, nice.Quote:
Originally Posted by TheArchitect
Putting that aside for a minute, Null Rod / Stony Silence effects have already been shown to be viable alongside one's own Moxen / Black Lotus in Vintage. Anti-synergistic cards typically look far worse on paper than they end up being in practice.
See: Monastery Mentor & TerminusQuote:
Originally Posted by MXG
Hey guys, I ended up playing Null Rod after the initial inspiration came from Poron. I was reluctant to try it out but Minniehajj gave me the jolt I needed. I think it was him (but not sure) that mentioned that in the mirror match, you have to be able to properly shift between extending the game and closing it out, as outlined in old theory from Who's the Beatdown. So I figured I'd give it a try.
After running Null Rod in a bunch of leagues, my conclusion is it is very good at shutting down activated abilities of artifacts.
"Whenever you find yourself on the side of the majority, it is time to pause and reflect."
Mark Twain
I'm starting to come around the the idea of Null Rod actually, there are some subtleties I didn't fully appreciate before. Thanks Poron for the innovation, and lordofthepit for trying it out. I'll give it a spin at my LGS next Legacy night and report back.
You're a legend! Can I send you my null rods to sign please???!?!? I know I'm not alone when I say that you're an inspiration to us all!Quote:
Originally Posted by Poron
if you block both his EE and Top (which here means Terminus) a single Mentor gets you out of the mirror, often.
Anyway nowadays it's good only against Equipments, Vial, Top and LED/Petals.
Sulfur Elemental is much better against white decks where Rod would be useful and against storm decks we normally don't really need more than Flusterstorm and CB.
A 2cc sorcery anyway is not where we want to be at that point CB is simply better.
Null Rod is an idea for a shock transformational SB.
It's (or it can be) a good card for a meta really packed of artifacts.
It's not the current one
haha I would sign them "to MUD, with love. Poron"Quote:
Originally Posted by Minniehajj
Oh man, this is so exciting.Quote:
Originally Posted by Poron
https://media.giphy.com/media/jwtg3IHmDKTpm/giphy.gif
Addressing this one point for now, considering most decks are moving away from Mentor as the main finisher and going back to ETA because of how the meta is reshaping, Null Rod does less in the mirror than it may have done say 2 months ago. That could still change.Quote:
Originally Posted by MXG
As for artifact hate in the mirror, 2 Wear//Tears are still brought in and while they wouldn't hit Top (that doesn't have a draw effect on the stack), they would still be able to get an EE off the board if you needed it gone.
I play a very "stock list" of predictless, nonlegend, miracles. My meta is full of bug decks (predict seems good here), death and taxes (better matchup imo postboard), and combo (mainly snt). What sideboard cards do you find most pivotal in this meta? I was thinking of playing sulfur elementals, but I have trouble fitting the 2 into a "normal" stock miracles board. Suggestions?
I've been flirting with landstill, meanwhile, for my meta but the dnt matchup is horrible.
Sulfur Elemental is a bit narrow. Yes it can kill DnT creatures, but it cannot kill that problematic one: Prelate. It's borderline useless against combo like SnT. It can go after opponent's Lili or Jace, but not that great.Quote:
Originally Posted by Echohots
The card that can deal with all the MUs, is Venser. Venser bounces the equipment/Prelate and then block to kill SFM or anything that matters. When your opponent SnT, you now can Venser in and bounce whatever your opponent put in. Sure your opponent might be able to draw 7, but at least you are not spending Mana, your Mana can be spent on fighting over stack or something else. Against BUG decks, Venser is great for the slower, Shardless BUG version, bounce Lili or a Vision is always nice, you might even get to bounce needle/null rod. It might be too slow for the BUG tempo, depending on which version.
As much as I love Venser, is he really worth it without Karakas? Sure, he can bounce Lili, but for 1 CMC less you can CJ her. I agree with you, he can fill a role against any MU, but wouldn't that qualify for the main deck?Quote:
Originally Posted by twndomn
I used to have Venser in my SB but I cut him, and I play a miser's one-of Karakas. I think he's just too slow right now. If SnS starts getting much more popular he might go back into the SB.
Awesome final for EE.
For those without context, my good friend, Anuraag Das, also known as Anzi104 or AnziD on here and twitch, proliferator of the 4 Predict build of Miracles since last November, has won Eternal Extravaganza 6 with 4 Predict miracles, defeating his roommate and Eternal Weekend 2015's Legacy Champion, Bob Huang in the finals, who was on 3 Predict miracles.Quote:
Originally Posted by HSCK
They were playing 74/75, with the only difference being Anuraag play 2 Snap main, 4 Predict main with the 3rd Snapcaster in the sideboard, with Bob playing 3 Snap main 3 Predict main with the 4th Snapcaster in the sideboard.
Hello all! I've been testing Miracles out on Cockatrice for a few weeks, and I'm curious about win condition choices. My local meta, from what I can gather, consists of the cheaper options for Legacy because it is a fledgling scene. Decks such as Burn and BR Reanimator are very popular (the scene is also very small), but there are some more established players who play Infect and D&T. I interpreted this as Mentor being the better win condition because I can close out the game rather quickly once the combo decks have used up their gas. However, I also wanted to run Entread as a lategame engine against D&T. I decided to utilize a 2-1 split on Mento-Entreat, but I'm not sure if this is correct. Again, I'm not entirely familiar with the deck, but I am learning quickly. Thoughts?
Sent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
Congrats Anuraag! Looking forward to seeing you and Bob banter on stream about this one ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by Minniehajj
Finally tried a single Predict last night. It was fine, but I don't think I'll go to more than 1.
Hoy mano people asisted? Where i can find videos? CongratzQuote:
Originally Posted by Minniehajj
It's unlikely you'll get great results from a single Predict, it's an engine in the deck. I'd advise trying the full set to feel it in action, it's a really different playstyle and dramatically changes lots of MUs. I feel like you have a lot of bias against it, though. Try and play it with an open mind.Quote:
Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual
Congrats to AnziD!
We want the report!
I've never felt the want for more cards in hand. I also don't play an aggro-style with the deck; I'd rather sit back, bide my time, answer threats, and then turn the corner like a traditional Miracles deck. Predict makes the deck faster; my playstyle is to play the deck "slower" (in terms of closing out, not actually slow play; I'm not a monkey.) I've never had troubles finishing games or finding answers when I need to. And if I wanted to run more predicts, I would have to cut some answers. No thanks.Quote:
Originally Posted by Whitefaces
Sure, but it's not simply about 'having more cards' or based on playstyle. It's a reaction to the current state of Legacy. A larger number than ever of other top decks are either playing Abrupt Decay or have other ways around CB (vial, cavern, high cmc etc). CB has been the 'engine' to generate virtual card advantage in the past, but it's no longer as reliable as before. These current Predict builds with Jace and Entreat are absolutely 'slow' control as you put it, but they have this CA engine built in to fight the other fair decks with raw CA. It's also a huge trump in the mirror.Quote:
Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual
That just sounds like you'll be taking more losses due to an inability to adjust.Quote:
Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual
Went 4-4 @ the GP Shizuoka Grade Up Legacy Tournament + won an 8 man with a pretty standard mentor miracles build. I'm very new to the deck and I'm pretty sure a competent player would've gone 6-2/7-1 in the matches I punted. Flusterstorm and JTMS overperformed all day and please pardon the poverty manabase. Do you guys have any tricks for (1) maintaining mental acuity + (2) remembering what you left on top? I'm not used to playing a control deck IRL (normally a combo player used to predefined lines)
Maindeck
* 4 Polluted Delta (Waiting for Tarns to drop)
* 4 Strand
* 2 Arid Mesa
* 1 Steam Vents (Traded 3 HP forces for a SP revised Volc. Score!)
* 1 Plains
* 1 Plateau
* 6 Islands
* 2 Tundra
* 4 Counterbalance
* 4 Top
* 4 Ponder
* 4 Brainstorm
* 3 Snapcaster Mage
* 1 Engineered Explosives
* 4 Terminus
* 4 STP
* 1 JTMS
* 1 Council's Judgment
* 1 Pyroblast (Japanese meta)
* 3 Mentor
* 1 Counterspell
* 4 Force of Wll
Sideboard
* 2 Sower of Temptation - Sneak and Show City
* 1 Containment Priest
* 2 V-Clique (Need a 3rd)
* 1 Flusterstorm (Need a 2nd)
* 2 Wear/Tear
* 2 Blood Moon (overperformed vs my Leovold MUs)
* 2 Surgicals
* 3 Pyroblasts
Rd 1 - Miracles Mirror 0-2 (Tried to slam a turn 4 mentor with force+flusterstorm backup, opponent had force, flusterstorm, flusterstorm)
Rd 2 - Tin fins 2-1 (he force checked my every game)
Rd 3 - Eldrazipost 1-2 (Lost g1, g2 I swords his ulamog, blood moon him, then Mentored him to death. G3 he had T1 Mimic, T2 TKS, T3 Smasher draw)
Rd 4 - Monoblack Pox 0-2. Chains is a card.
Rd 5 - Burn 2-0. Deck was totally foil with full guru landbase. top+balance+float terminus for fireblast shenanigans = GG.
Rd 6 - Shardless 0-2. Mulled a lot and got crushed by leovold.
Rd 7 - Shardless 1-0. G1 took around 45 minutes with JTMS outdueling Lily. We were in a topdecking war, so I just keep fateseeling him with 2 tops in play, while he kept armagedoning my lands.
Rd 8 - Solder Stompy 2-1. G1 he t1 T-sphere into T2 Arbiter +GQ. G2/G3 Wear/Tear did serious work, with JTMS fatesealing him G2/Mentor going nuts g3.
Side Event
Rd 1 - Miracles Mirror 2-0. G1 I won a huge counterwar around turn 7ish, then mentored him to death. G2 he stumbled on land and I pyroblasted 2 of his ponders.
Rd 2 - BUG Leovold 2-0. Took around 1.5 hours to finish this. Classic grindfest with JTMS + terminus preventing him from doing anything G1, whereas G2 I blood mooned him with 0 cards in hand/all nonbasics, then dropped a mentor to take it.
rd 3 - Grixis Delver 2-0. Fast balance G1 took it, whereas G2 I drew a metric shitload of pyroblasts.
After going 5-0 then 0-4 at the GP, yesterday really highlighted why legacy is the best format. Interactive, skill testing, and most of all super fun. Seriously, Magic is supposed to be a game about casting spells between dueling wizards, and Legacy is just that. I used to mainly play lands and dredge, but I'm now dedicated to playing miracles and look forward to improving.
Congrats Anzid! Just want your views on not playing mentor against mirror, how would you board against a mirror that plays mentor?Quote:
Originally Posted by Pische
THanks.
I've avoided playing Predict for a long time and I never once felt like I needed the card. I ended EW2016 with a 6-3 record, with losses coming to 4c Loam, a concession to DnT (was 1-1-1 and I felt I was dead to his hand vs. my hand), and Grixis Delver. Granted, this is before Leovold made BUG decks more prevalent, but people were playing already 2-3 Predicts back then. In none of my losses did I think I needed to draw more answers; my opponents just had way more gas than answers I could have ever drawn. And cutting down on answers just to have more looks to find them is not a direction I want to go in with the deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by HSCK
A 6-3 record is hardly a good, or big enough sample size to draw conclusions from. Anyway, I stated why I think it's great currently. If you don't like it that's fine.
The point is, you keep pushing Predict as an end-all-be-all auto-include in the deck in the same way Terminus and Top are, and it just isn't. Like others in here have said, going heavier on Predict will make some MUs better and some MUs worse. The MUs that are made better, I don't find myself struggling with them to begin with, and I'd rather not have other MUs get worse.
The finals of a large legacy tournament was 4 Predict vs 3 Predict and you've decided this is a good time to convince people that Predict sucks?