Jamest, you have a very extensive post there. I would've posted last night, but I was in a foul mood, and it would have likely resulted in warnings on my part or the potential locking of this thread. First off, let me say, anyone who has any sort of experience with this deck for more than six months, should have no doubt in their mind, that this deck will never be tier 1. However, the deck is a blast to play, is kind of janky, and can still be competitive with the right pilot. I'll handle your post in pieces.
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Probability question: if you run 18 lands, how often will your opening hand (seven cards) have zero or one land? What's an acceptable percentage for you?
I'd run at least 20 lands. There's not a lot of decks out there that this deck can beat if it's stuck on one land. (Eldariel, I was a proponent for running more lands in Faerie Stompy too.)
Yea, sometimes you draw mana light hands. It does happen. When I first played the deck oh so many years ago (this was my first tournament deck, granted at the time it was mono red), I was playing with 21 lands. As time progressed I added fetchlands, and eventually dual lands. All the while my draws and mana curve was smooth and strong. When I began to retest the deck for some reason I went to 18 lands, and I can say the change hasn't really affected me a whole lot. I still draw lands at the most inopportune times like before. I'd say if anything, 19 or 20 is likely the magic number, but 18 has been working just fine for now. However, this is for the NON-CURSED SCROLL builds. Those run differently, and need upwards to 21 lands to support the card.
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Anyways, the whole RG Aggro archetype is one of my favorites. I'm glad people are still working on it. In my past testing, the main problem was that the deck had a tough time against aggro-control specifically Threshold. They have the ability to counter or plow anything threatening (ie Dryad) and their Threshold creatures outclass ours. Their cantrips ensure that they draw more relevent spells than we do. I remember messaging Feinstein about this matchup and he also felt it was not positive.
This is my logic for the inclusion for SCM and Blood Knight, which everyone seems so fucking adamant about not including, excluding Anarky87. SCM requires less set-up than any of you are giving it credit for. Thresh really isn't too key on pitching mongeese often to a fanatic. Like, pre-thresh, they have to play so defensively, as none of their threats really are. Even post thresh you can just drop stupid hands and burn them out. Granted it's an ideal situation. And yes, the deck is not an easy match-up, but it is winnable if you play smart. You say they have the ability. It's just that. Every deck has the ability to do something. It's just, they won't always have a hand full of counter and plow for the early game.
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We already get hosed by combo so, for me, this deck needs a positive or even matchup against aggro control (along with the Goblins) to be competitive.
At Kadi Dual Land Draft II I beat Gearharts Solidarity with Zilla. Granted my hands played out Sligh with the addition of Elvish Spirit Guide. My point is, you bring in 8 cards, and mulligan into at least one of them, ideally two or three.
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Other comments:
- Why not straight Burn? Burn also beats Goblins, and aggro in general, including this deck. What does playing creatures give us?
- I highly doubt this deck has a positive or even matchup against Faerie Stompy. They run so many problem cards for us including Chalice, Trinket for Chalice, Jitte, pro-red, etc with the necessary acceleration.
- Slith Firewalker - I don't like this card. It takes a lot of babying to get him going and even then he's still slow and fragile.
Straight burn lacks consistency. Creatures greatly bolster that. No, I don't think the Faerie Stompy match is all that spectacular. However, you've got the means to win. Bolting a Drake is a nice tempo boost. I'd bring in REB's and Grips post board. This is one of the first things I agree with. Hence, my non-inclusion of slith.
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- Scab Clan Mauler - If you're going to play this, I recommend playing Seal of Fire and Rift Bolt. Both cards nicely set up a turn 2 SCM.
- Rancor - So strong when it works and a liability when it doesn't. It's the most Hot/Cold card. To me, this card should be judged how whether it can improve the aggro control matchup (since we beat Goblins with or without it). On one hand, it puts all our creatures on par with Werebear and Mongoose. On the other hand, it's a 2-for-1 loss with Plowshares and it's not a threat on its own (important observation by kicks), which has many tactical implications.
Point one: No. On to the next. In my experience with Rancor it's been something like: "Oh look, everything is now a much larger threat." If they drop some piece of removal or counter it means that I forced them to waste a resource on my terms. This is important, because I'm still controlling the tempo of the game.
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- Mogg Fanatic - Mediocre 1st turn play. Crappy topdeck. Just weak.
- Blood Knight - Sucks. Pro white doesn't mean crap when Threshold wouldn't even bother plowing it if they could. Sure, it's decent with Rancor, but that means it's only conditionally useful. Then we have more cards that aren't good on their own. And what if Thresh is playing red removal?
I'm sorry, but if you are suggesting the removal of mogg fanatic from the deck, I have to call into question your experience with the deck. When I make any sort of sligh list, he's one of the first four play sets (along with Lavamancer, Lightning Bolt, and Magma Jet) that gets scrawled onto the list. Like, it's just awsome. I'd like to tell you every time he's been useful, but it be no stretch saying it would be longer than this thread currently is. And onto Blood Knight. If I were thresh I'd want to Plow a 2/2 First Striker. Why? Because it represents a rather large threat just on its own. Even without a rancor, if a werebear blocks it, I fling a piece of burn, and the problem is solved. Against Angel Stompy he can go the whole distance with enough burn supporting him. Mind you, the build I encounter is packing 8 pro red guys, and I think it's two or three MD SoFI. I don't think there is many other creature that is easy as hell to cast, cheap, dodges Plow, and doesn't trade with a large majority of creatures in this format. Short of Nimble Mongoose.
For reference when I refer to boarding for matches, this is the Board I am currently using:
Side Board
4 Tormod's Crypt
4 Red Elemental Blast
4 Pyrostatic Pillar
3 Krosan Grip