[DTB] U/G/x Thresh - a.k.a. Not Quite Gro, SuperGro

As I said before, Sarcasto's list is atypical, as it strays from the classic Gro card counts. His success at the GP certainly gives us reason to discuss and explore the deck, but as of now I don't see it as representative of UGr Gro.

UGr Gro is a deck almost identical to your list, but with the appropriate card swaps made for color.

-4 STP
-4 Mage
-2 Enforcer

+4 Bolt/Fire Ice/Magma Jet
+4 Mongoose
+2 Fledgling Dragon/Sea Drake

It's the same deck, with differences only in how the specific card swaps interact with the metagame.

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Originally Posted by Obfuscate Freely

As I said before, Sarcasto's list is atypical, as it strays from the classic Gro card counts. His success at the GP certainly gives us reason to discuss and explore the deck, but as of now I don't see it as representative of UGr Gro.

UGr Gro is a deck almost identical to your list, but with the appropriate card swaps made for color.

-4 STP
-4 Mage
-2 Enforcer

+4 Bolt/Fire Ice/Magma Jet
+4 Mongoose
+2 Fledgling Dragon/Sea Drake

It's the same deck, with differences only in how the specific card swaps interact with the metagame.

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Okay, I did not see your posts detailing that and I apologize for the assumptions-- I was going by Sarcasto's list, which seems more aggressive than UGw. Those card swaps you mention make a lot of sense-- I will freely admit that UGr is a better deck for a defined metagame as it stands now. I just like UGw a lot and I think it's more versatile, and the metagame is not exactly defined anywhere. We have thoughts on what the metagame should be, and for sure goblins will see lots of play, but other than that the expected decks at a large-scale event could be anything. We have something to go by thanks to GP Philly, but nothing is really solidified yet.

In addition to the modifications that Ob Freely stated that convert UGw to UGr Gro, I would also suggest dropping Sleight of Hand (plus another card) for Magma Jet. Jet functions as a weak cantrip at times, much like Sleight does, but Jet is much stronger because it can be removal and it sets up Predict.

I myself run 2 Strategic Planning and 3 Pithing Needle in my UGr Gro maindeck. Strategic Planning has proven to be nothing short of amazing. It allows me to get threshold extremely quickly, providing 3 cards to my graveyard, and it is strong in the lategame too, allowing me to dig for answers. It is like Mental Note, but it lets you choose which cards to keep and which card goes to the graveyard (like Mental Note+Sensei's Divining Top). I think that Strategic Planning merits maindeck slots due to its early game threshold enabling and lategame card selection.

Is Strategic Planning worthy of maindeck slots in Gro? If so, how many?

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Originally Posted by dsg123456789

I think that Strategic Planning merits maindeck slots due to its early game threshold enabling and lategame card selection.

Is Strategic Planning worthy of maindeck slots in Gro? If so, how many?

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I believe that the same argument against Mental Note can be used here just in the fact that you have to few answer to an array of problems that have to be dealt with. The odds of you coming across a scenario in which you hit 2-3 crucile cards are low but those odds are still enough IMO to dennouce it as a main deck slot.

Edit: In UBG grow how good would Nightmare Void be in the wombat match up be??? ob freely and I were thinking of something like 2 intuition, 1 NV, and 1 genesis in the board. Thoughts?

I'm happy to see this thread's taken off! :)

There's a lot to talk about, so I'll weigh in with some of my ideas.

RE: URG vs UWG. Strategically, I'd much rather play the UWG list, especially if the new Loam/Dredge Tog lists start taking off. I've pretty much been playing Tog exclusively for the past month and it's really freaking good. URG will stuggle and will likely lose the battle of attrition. Tog couldn't give a wank about Lightning Bolt/Magma Jet, etc. and the only thing that flies in URG is Fledgling Dragon, which will chump for a turn. UWG is already pre-boarded with as many StP as Tog has Togs, 3 Mystic Enforcers (aka Tog-busting-extraordinaire), Meddling Mage for Intuition/LFL, Pithing Needle for Sandbar/Deed/Tog. URG really has to fight an uphill battle there. But URG is better against Goblins, for reasons that are too obvious to mention, so that's a reason alone to consider running it.

RE: Predict vs AK vs Mental Note. My disdain for Predict is pretty well known (though maybe not here). I like the effect, but it's really twice the cost you want to pay. AK and Strategic Planning suffer the same problem. Solid cards, but slow and overcost. That's pretty much the only reason to run Mental Note: it's synergistic and cheap. And that's what the deck is looking for. I always side AKs out anyway against aggro, but I'm not certain that I wouldn't side out Mental Note either, you really want to leave the core of the deck intact and I don't think Mental Note is better than Brainstorm, and it's not as good as Serum Visions because scrying for lands when you're up against Wasteland keeps the deck floating.

I've had AK in my lists forever now and used to run 1-2 Merchant Scroll/Mystic Tutor to dig up AK3/4, but this was back when decks weren't as optimized, and I could run subpar cards myself and still not notice that they were actually bad. :)

I'm a fan of Sleight of Hand, but Mental Note likely trumps that, so those are easy test-slots to fill.

Statistically, you can't worry about "dreding" good cards with Mental Note. You may just as easily "dredge" two unnecessary lands as StP + Meddling Mage. Experiment with cutting the deck at different places, and you'll see that the argument holds not water.

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(Mulletus) Ok I wont lie, the deck is great, but what does this deck do against 32 creatures maindeck. Most with trix to boot? 4/4 for 2 isn't that hot against ftk. It handles the main 2 decks in the format, but how does it do against us randoms. Even Geddon is tollerable.

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Well, you never have to deal with 32 creatures, only the ones that resolve, and then, only the ones that matter. Werebear does make excellent target practice for FTK, and then you have a 4/2 to deal with. He always needs to be countered -- but he's easily Daze-able. Though, if you're talking about Goblins, it's not pretty. Tivadar's Crusade is often your best bet since you can solve multiple problems for 1WW and a card. Of course you need to manage your mana carefully by exposing your non-basics. A safe bet is to fetch a basic island turn 1 (which is one of the few auto-plays this deck has), getting your Plains with Strand/Heath on turn two (now you have non-Wastelandable access to your 4 StP + 4 BEB/Hydroblast), and cracking another fetch/playing Tundra (which any fetch can find) on turn 3. And even if your Tundra bites it, it's still done it's job. And if you can hold out to turn four before you Crusade, by leaving one or more fetchland uncracked, all the better.

Or, you know, play URG and cast Pyroclasm for a mere 1R. ;)

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(dsg)Is Strategic Planning worthy of maindeck slots in Gro? If so, how many?

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I'm testing one. I sometimes like it, but it again suffers from the Predict/AK problem: it costs two mana, and this one is a sorcery, so you can't even counterspell/stifle/etc. Hence, I'll often sit on it if I have other reactive cards in my hand, and that's not satisfying. Like Pox in Pox (deck), Threshold should be cantripping early and often. And sorcery + 1U really slows your momentum if you have other things to do.

Onto new news:

From this past weekend (source Morphling.de). (Thanks Kimberly!)
Man, there's some crazy fucking decks in there. :)

First Place: UWG Threshold (5-0) (17 players)

4 Accumulated Knowledge
4 Brainstorm
3 Daze
2 Disrupting Shoal
4 Force of Will
4 Portent
3 Predict
2 Stifle
3 Meddling Mage
3 Mystic Enforcer
4 Nimble Mongoose
3 Werebear
4 Swords to Plowshares

Lands (17):
2 Flooded Strand
1 Forest
3 Island
1 Plains
3 Tropical Island

Sideboard (15):
3 Armageddon
4 Hydroblast
1 Meddling Mage
3 Pithing Needle
2 Stifle
1 Tivadar's Crusade
1 Tormod's Crypt

Notable cards: AK, 2 D Shoal, Portent + Predict, maindeck Mongeese. Nothing wonky in the sideboard. Pretty much Lam's list from the GP.

Seventh place: URG Threshold (2-2-1)

2 Phyrexian Furnace
1 Pithing Needle
4 Brainstorm
4 Counterspell
3 Daze
4 Force of Will
4 Portent
3 Predict
4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Werebear
4 Fire/Ice
2 Fledgling Dragon
4 Lightning Bolt

Lands (18):
1 Forest
2 Island
1 Mountain
3 Polluted Delta
3 Tropical Island
4 Volcanic Island
4 Wooded Foothills

Sideboard (15):
3 Hydroblast
3 Naturalize
2 Null Rod
4 Pyroblast
1 Pyroclasm
1 Sandstorm
1 Tromod's Crypt
3 Tundra
4 Windswept Heath

Just thought I'd share. This is a good discussion. :)

Cheers,
Bardo



Edited By bardo_trout on 1133213933

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Originally Posted by bardo_trout

Statistically, you can't worry about "dreding" good cards with Mental Note. You may just as easily "dredge" two unnecessary lands as StP + Meddling Mage. Experiment with cutting the deck at different places, and you'll see that the argument holds not water.

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Again, just to remark-- I'm not saying that it's more likely that you'll mill something that you'll care about. I'm saying that milling in general is undesirable because if you hit something that you do care about, it's more important for the deck than if you hit something you don't. The consequences of a negative mill are heavier than the benefits of a positive mill because of the lower level of redundancy UGw has in terms of removal and win conditions.

Not being too much of a Gro player myself, I probably will not have time to test it, but Peek would seem to be a decent card AND fit into Gro's overall strategy - well worth testing time in the last cantrip slot over Mental Note/AK/Predict/other.

P.S. I appologize to anyone else who has tested this in the past and I've missed it within the hundreds of pages of reading about Gro. Good luck guys.

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Originally Posted by Ridiculous Hat

I will freely admit that UGr is a better deck for a defined metagame as it stands now. I just like UGw a lot and I think it's more versatile, and the metagame is not exactly defined anywhere. We have thoughts on what the metagame should be, and for sure goblins will see lots of play, but other than that the expected decks at a large-scale event could be anything. We have something to go by thanks to GP Philly, but nothing is really solidified yet.

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Despite some of the things I said, I really wasn't trying to push UGr as better than UGw. I just wanted to clear up the misconception that one was inherently strategically different from the other.

I agree with you that a more defined metagame would be necessary to determine which splash is better, if an objective conclusion is possible.

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Originally Posted by dsg123456789

In addition to the modifications that Ob Freely stated that convert UGw to UGr Gro, I would also suggest dropping Sleight of Hand (plus another card) for Magma Jet. Jet functions as a weak cantrip at times, much like Sleight does, but Jet is much stronger because it can be removal and it sets up Predict.

I myself run 2 Strategic Planning and 3 Pithing Needle in my UGr Gro maindeck. Strategic Planning has proven to be nothing short of amazing. It allows me to get threshold extremely quickly, providing 3 cards to my graveyard, and it is strong in the lategame too, allowing me to dig for answers. It is like Mental Note, but it lets you choose which cards to keep and which card goes to the graveyard (like Mental Note+Sensei's Divining Top). I think that Strategic Planning merits maindeck slots due to its early game threshold enabling and lategame card selection.

Is Strategic Planning worthy of maindeck slots in Gro? If so, how many?

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When Zur and I first played UGr, we had Fire/Ice in the deck. This was back when Survival was around, and Fire was hot because it 2-for-1'd all the time. When Survival died down, Fire/Ice lost some of its luster (you never 2-for-1 Goblins with it), so we tried Magma Jet. Jet is awesome for the reasons you've mentioned; it gives you a decent set-up spell and a decent spot-removal spell at the same time.

Since then, we've both switched to Bolt, but it is possible to squeeze extra removal into the deck by masquerading it as draw. Personally, I don't think it's needed; I like the lower curve and the better draw you get with Portent (or Sleight).

As for Strategic Planning, bardo covered its problems pretty clearly. Basically, 2 mana sorceries are really cumbersome, and it's effect is worse than Impulse's anyway.

...Yeah, I know it ditches 2 cards. That isn't reason enough to run it.

If you are having difficulty reaching threshold, that is because you have run out of spells to cast. Games like that are difficult to win anyway. Mental Note is much better at giving you quick threshold, but it doesn't usually make the cut, either, because it is such a poor draw spell.

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Originally Posted by bardo_trout

RE: Predict vs AK vs Mental Note. My disdain for Predict is pretty well known (though maybe not here). I like the effect, but it's really twice the cost you want to pay. AK and Strategic Planning suffer the same problem. Solid cards, but slow and overcost. That's pretty much the only reason to run Mental Note: it's synergistic and cheap. And that's what the deck is looking for. I always side AKs out anyway against aggro, but I'm not certain that I wouldn't side out Mental Note either, you really want to leave the core of the deck intact and I don't think Mental Note is better than Brainstorm, and it's not as good as Serum Visions because scrying for lands when you're up against Wasteland keeps the deck floating.

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I never have understood your "disdain" for Predict. 1U is a perfectly fine cost to draw 2 cards (often milling through an unwanted one) at instant speed. If the card cost U it would clearly be undercosted.

I really think Gro needs some form of card advantage in its draw, however small. It helps you recover from pitch counters and mulligans. Predict is the best we have, and if you give it a try, you might be more pleased with it than you'd think. It's certainly better than Strategic Planning!

The second point you bring up, about sideboarding, should make for an interesting discussion. Against aggro decks, I often side out my "4th" draw spell (3x Portent/Sleight of Hand), and sometimes a Predict. However, I prefer leaving all the draw in whenever possible. Running out of cantrips is really the most common reason Gro loses games, in my experience.

EDIT: Peek is awful. Sheer velocity isn't enough to keep the deck moving. Gro cheats on lands, threats, and answers, and it needs more powerful manipulation to get away with it.



Edited By Obfuscate Freely on 1133215277

i tested peek in nqg at a gp trial 2 weeks ago and found it to be a very useful card, if your not sure about the metagame and maindecking both mages and needle. its imo a personal choice like mental note etc.. since you usually know anyhow what to name for mage/needle and it doesnt serve a role of either putting cards in the gy or digging deeper into the deck like all other draw spells do.
on the other hand there are even many differences like in goblin builds with jitte md or other nasty things so its really no bad idea to try them out.

if you ask me, ill keep them in as long as i play needle and mage main.

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(Ob Freely) I never have understood your "disdain" for Predict. 1U is a perfectly fine cost to draw 2 cards (often milling through an unwanted one) at instant speed. If the card cost U it would clearly be undercosted.

I really think Gro needs some form of card advantage in its draw, however small. It helps you recover from pitch counters and mulligans. Predict is the best we have, and if you give it a try, you might be more pleased with it than you'd think. It's certainly better than Strategic Planning!

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You're not guaranteed to ever draw 2 cards off Predict. Yes, you can set it up with one of your 1cc draw spells, but that really smells of one of the "Danger of Cool Things" moves.

Anyway, if Predict said: "Draw two cards" for 1U at instant speed, it would be an immediate 4-of here, but it doesn't. It says "Draw two cards, if you invest some effort or get lucky."

But I certainly agree that the deck needs some form of card advantage, above the cantrips and library manipulation that the 1cc spells offer. That's why I continue to run AK, which I'm not terribly satisfied with. At various points, I've even run 2+ Fact or Fiction in this deck, but I don't advocate that any longer.

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(LinkXwing) Not being too much of a Gro player myself, I probably will not have time to test it, but Peek would seem to be a decent card AND fit into Gro's overall strategy - well worth testing time in the last cantrip slot over Mental Note/AK/Predict/other.

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Peek is really shitting at digging for land and the land search that Brainstorm/Visions/Sleight/Portent offer are one of the ways we can reasonably be running so few lands in the first place.

And there's no reason to apologize for bringing up an idea. Consider this thread tabula rasa from the meandering 17-page Super-Gro thread that was started in October 2004. And even if an idea is bad (and I'm not saying that yours is), it's good for others to debate the point, so that lurkers will understand the argument and be enlightened. :)

Bardo,
doin' it for the lurkers...



Edited By bardo_trout on 1133222566

We aren't guaranteed anything in this life. But I'll take my chances with Predict nonetheless. Try it before you knock it.

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Originally Posted by Obfuscate Freely

We aren't guaranteed anything in this life. But I'll take my chances with Predict nonetheless. Try it before you knock it.

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I've been testing U/G/r gro the last few days, and I don't see why anyone would not run predict. I don't see the card as a 4 of, but it cantrips no matter what not to mention it fills the yard early game to make that bear a 4/4 turns 3-4. I tested the mirror match with kadilak earlyier, the only problem I had was enforcer does U/G/r gro have an answer? I boarded in FTK and never drew one! there was 26 cards left and 4 FTK! isnt that lame... As for peek I would run it in U/G/w gro because of mage and MD needle. Peek makes both of those cards atleast twice as good as they already are. What's the better beef in U/G/r gro dragon or sea drake? Also has anyone thought of confidant in gro? I was messing with it but I was to lazy to look for beefy black threshold dudes, is there any playable ones?

Dragon is your answer to Enforcer, but Sea Drake is sexy with sideboard Winter Orb. Take your pick.

The other good way of dealing with a resolved Enforcer is to grave-hate them out of threshold, and Bolt/Bear it.

@Wasted:
There are no good black threshold creatures, save 3/3 fears for 1B that can't block. So really, no. I thought about confidant, but it is the only think black offers, where blue is so much deeper (because you must cut blue for confidant because Force of Will is not playable in a deck that already normally bolts itself).

I find Dragon to be a better beater because it is a 5/5, doesn't ruin your tempo when it matters, and it swings for a lot more. However, Winter Orb sideboard is pretty good, and Sea Drake can randomly beat an unprepared deck if you get it turn 3, and it also surives graveyard hate better than the Dragon does.

I save my counters for Bears and Enforcers when facing UGw Gro. I only need to resolve a nimble mongoose, and that will go all the way. Also, as Ob Freely said, Dragon is your only answer to Enforcer.


Because I have been frustrated with UGr Gro's weakness to large creatures, I have been thinking about how I might go about playing 4-color Gro (UGrw). I figured with StP, Armageddon, Magma Jet, Mage, Enforcer, Bolt, F/I, Lightning Helix, etc, it might turn out to be very powerful. I think that I would probably run Enforcers main over Dragons, and then sideboard Geddons, Pyroclasms, Mages, and StP. With that mix, you get the powerful lategame of Red while having the metagame tools of White (I believe that White allows for more metagaming than Red does).

Also, I would like to plug against for Compost in the sideboard as a 2+ of for a metagame call. This card makes the Black deck matchups that are fairly difficult very, very easy, and you cannot lose if you resolve 2 of them (They are better with the Red splash because black weenies are small, and so burn 'yards them to draw cards while StP doesn't let you draw cards). I just want to make sure to bring this potential bomb to the attention of all Gro players who may struggle against Black decks in their own metas--it will shore up your matchup and then some.

Pretty much everything OF said, I agree with. Peek does seem really bad, and even with Needle and Mage, you don't necessarily name what they have for the "cool" play-- you name what you're worried about them having. They're insurance policies that just happen to be proactive. Consider Pithing Needle and Meddling Mage closer to "Seal of Counterspell" than anything.

As for black, I guess you could play Possessed Aven, but honestly the best UGb threshold creature is Psychatog, even if it technically doesn't have threshold written on it.

Compost seems interesting, though I suppose it's a metagame issue-- if lots of people are playing Pikula.dec then Compost definitely belongs, but otherwise it seems like it's a really narrow hoser. Though I guess that's what they said about Tivadar's Crusade. :cool:

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From this past weekend (source Morphling.de). (Thanks Kimberly!)

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This is a bit embarrassing...cause that list is actually mine. I just sent bardo that link for the Appendix.
The more important thing i wanted to tell him was...
...well windux already told you that he succeeded at GPT Lille in Dortmund with a list very close to Hat's.
The thing you may be interested in, is: That GPT was in fact dominated by NQG.

T8:
1/2 = Ugw NQG / WUBS
3/4 = Ugr NQG* / Ugr NQG*
5/6/7/8 = Burn/ Burn/ Flame Vault/ RW Rift

*both MD identical to Pat Mc Gregors GP list. You can watch them at morphling.de anyway soon.

This result is far more important than my success in Bremen imo. In fact i tend to believe that GPT Dortmund was the hardest and most meaningful Legacy Event i ever attended to (and i've seen lots of them if you consider the stardards of german Legacy).
There were only 3 or 4 VialGoblin lists among those 32 players iirc and i knew at least one of them as an expierenced player. As you see none of them reached T8. The best of them played 3-2, and he only achieved that by being lucky enough to play round 5 against me (i had the worst tourney ever (playing UrLandstill), which was pretty much my own work, not that of the strong meta).
It should be mentioned too, that WUBS was already defeated by its semifinal opponent round 5, which scooped in the playoffs.

I want to comment the fact that my list is very close to Lam's.
I played the deck without Mages and with 4 MD Mongoose at some events and did not miss Mage's ability that much (it is obviously good - i don't want to argue about that). I added Mage to my list again cause i simply wanted to run more creatures MD. Originally i planned to go up to 14, but found only space for 13 in the end. Later on i realized i came very close to Lam's list.
Anyway...

I had discussions with windux at zkforum.de, during which we had to realize that we have very different ideas about the deck's choices as well as about it's general idea.

It seems obvious to me that lists close to Lam's have much more late game control strengh due to better topdecking possibilities and the use of AK, while lists close to Hat's are more consistent due to the higher number of cc1 cantrips and usually hit threshold a turn (or at least half a turn) earlier.

The only thing i miss in this thread yet, is a discussion about those two different approaches and their pro's and con's.
In the SuperGro thread several choices were discussed without any respect towards in which variants they may be played.

I see that as a problem of the discussion in general. I don't believe it will bring us much further, if we discuss choices (especially the cantrips) as isolated items.
We all know the arguments about Mental Note, AK, Predict, Portent etc. and all of us have tested at least the choices we are playing.

@Hat
All i know about your match vs. Lam is this:

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Round 9 - Lam Phan with mirror. G1 he gets 0 green sources after 3 serum visions. I play a meddling mage on stp and then two werebears. G2 the bad buildness of his deck with AKs etc is revealed and I end up taking it home with lots more creatures than he had because I rule. Also I made an awesome play g2-- I have an unthreshed werebear and two lands in play, he's tapped out. I untap and play a meddling mage precombat, he dazes... and I PAY THAT SHIT.

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I would very much like to hear more about the match, and why you believe that a more controlish variant of the deck is bad by definition.
We have exchanged many arguments about all of the cantrips. I would like to hear what you (and the rest of us as well) feel the deck has to do.
You may say AK is slow as hell, which we all know. So why don't we play Mental Note...let's say instead of Sleight of Hand.
We all know the pros and cons of those two as well.
Why is Predict+Sleight the right amount of speed on the one hand and CQ & CA on the other in your opinion?
Which aspects of the meta would have to change to make slower or faster cantrips more desireable?

I said more about Lam's deck in my tournament report on starcity, but basically game 1 he got color-screwed and game 2 the game went on forever and I got the enforcer first as he only played 2. Things that I noted:

-He only had 8 one-mana cantrips, so I found that numerous times he was not able to play as much card draw as I was.
-He played AK late-game in game 2 and ended up drawing 1 and then drawing 2 with it. It didn't actually help him at all.
-His sideboard is a mess.
-He brought in Pithing Needles after board for some reason.

He said afterwards that the only matches he lost in the swiss were to the mirror (to me and CavernNinja, no less), so I'd be inclined to believe that his build is not the best for a gro-dominated field.

I find that if you play 11 one-mana cantrips, you can safely only run 17 lands. Pithing Needle helps with that as well in terms of the Wasteland factor, so really it helps the deck topdeck even better and doesn't saddle your hand with a bunch of spells that require two lands to cast. Predict is the only CA spell because it also happens to fill up the yard a little quicker, and so far I've found it to be quite good. The fact that certain builds of Landstill are playing Enlightened Tutor is just icing on the cake-- Predict is what I want out of a two-mana draw spell, and typically if you have extras it can still clog up the hand. Usually a Brainstorm followed by a Predict naming Predict is the most optimal play.

Well, at this point I would say we all realize that Winter Orb has incredibly savage synergy with Sea Drake, Daze, and (if you run it) Fire/Ice.

So, my question is, why has no one given a list with md orbs a try? I would be inclined to say that it fits this deck's strategy quite nicely; especially when coupled with additional mana denial in the form of Stifle.

Also, why is the U/R list the only one running Drake?

As a side note, Naturalize>Disenchant.

In a Meta, where Goblins are dominating, it isnt that smart to Run a card, that Supports Goblins even more.
You maybe play 1-2 Canttrips to search a Blocker and gain as soon as possible Threeshold, because your 1/1 Critters, arent that good.

One reason, why i never tried Sea Drake is, that his Body is 4/3...3 is the magic number: Lightning Bolt, Chain lightning, Incinerate. A 3/4 Body and i would probatly play it.
Sea Drake trades 1:1 with:
90% of all Burn (Fire/ice not)
Threshold Werebear
even Threeshold Nimble Mongoose

Fledling and Enforcer is at least a 1:2 Trade for you.
I Mean x/5 and x/6 Bodys. It even trades with Eternal Dragon, Exalted Angel or all Goblin, Stompy, AngelStompy Creatures.
Ok Eternal are only in RW Rift, Rabit Whobmat and maybe as 1-2off in Landstills (90% for LandFetching).

It just so happens at the moment that the people who like Sea Drake seem to all also like red. I don't think there's any inherent difference, though; I'd run Drake over Enforcer as soon as over Dragon. The reason I'm running Drake right now is because mana denial (mostly my own Winter Orbs vs. control) is more prevalent than fat (the mirror/RGSA/Angel Stompy/etc). If the reverse became true, I could see myself switching back to Dragon.

As for Lightning Bolt, few decks play the card and none are very popular. Burn would rather target you, and Goblins probably won't see a Drake (they get shuffled away and boarded out). I would only worry about it if I expected a significant amount of U/R Landstill, SDZ, and/or the mirror match. Also, it doesn't trade with Mongoose so much as it races Mongoose.

I wouldn't play Winter Orb MD mostly because of Goblins, and to a lesser extent the mirror match and Deadguy Ale.