Printable View
I'd like to ask what the optimal play is in the following situation:
I have 2 Trops, 1 Flooded Strand and 1 Volcanic Island on the board. My opponent is going to win next turn and has 3 life left.
My hand is Portent, Serum Visions and Brainstorm. How can I maximize my chances to dig into Lightning Bolt?
So, I'm going to guess BS, fetch, serum, portent. This looks at 3 cards, shuffles, looks at an additional 3 cards, putting two on bottom, then looks at the next three, if it's not there, you get a shot at one more after shuffle, that's 10 cars, 3 of which while you've got 2 bad ones on the bottom.
Playing serum first, then BS, then fetch also has the same net result, except now your deck is larger when you BS, so you don't take as much advantage of having two known cards on the bottom.
The most cards you can look at with any of these is 10, 3 from serum, 3 from bs, 4 from portent. You can only keep those two extra cards on the bottom for either 3 from bs or 3 from portent, and have to shuffle afterwards.
Imagine the same situation, but with the option to play an Island instead of the Fetchland.
Is the shuffle effect an advantage in a digging situation? What about using Portent's shuffle effect instead of the Fetchland shuffle, would that be better?
The shuffle effect... I dont think so. I think what makes Strand good in this situation is to thin out a land just so you can find that Lightning Bolt for the kill. So that's one card less that's thinned out. Now your cantrips are maximized for a much more stronger digging.
More importantly, of the 10 cards you dig into, you'll see 2 cards twice in this scenario: You've put 2 cards back with BS, so portent only shows you only one additional "unknown" card before you decide to shuffle. It's better to fetch if it's possible, then portent shows you 3 new "unknown" cards plus the one after shuffling.
Thanks for the replies.
I'm not completely sure in the second scenario (without the Fetchland). Which path is correct?
1) Serum Visions, Portent, Brainstorm
or
2) Portent (shuffle), Serum Visions, Brainstorm
or
3) Serum Visions, Brainstorm, Portent (shuffle)
or
4) Brainstorm, Serum Visions, Portent (shuffle if necessary)
I didn't list the options with Serum Visions at the end, because I need to win this turn (or in the opponents upkeep the latest).
Let's go through these scenario's one by one and find out how much cards you see.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongo
1) You see 3 unknown cards of the serum visions, 3 unknown ones during your turn from the portent and 3 unknown ones of the brainstorm. During your opponent's upkeep you draw a "known" card. You see 9 unknown cards in total. I assume you use the shuffle option of portent. However, if you play the brainstorm after the upkeep draw of portent, the upkeep draw of portent nets you an unknown card as well. Instead of 9, you'd see 10 unknown cards.
2) You see 3 unknown cards during your turn from the portent, 3 unknown cards of the serum visions and 3 unknown ones of the brainstorm. During your opponent's upkeep you draw a "known" card. You see 9 unknown cards in total. However, if you play the brainstorm after the upkeep draw of portent, the upkeep draw of portent nets you an unknown card as well. Instead of 9, you'd see 10 unknown cards.
3) You see 3 unknown cards from the visions, 3 unknown ones from your brainstorm, but you put 2 cards back so you see only 1 unknown card from your portent this turn. During your opponent's upkeep you draw an unknown card, for a total of 8 unknown cards.
4) You see 3 unknown cards and put 2 back on top from brainstorm, so you see only 1 unknown card from your serum visions. You see 3 unknown cards this turn from portent and another unknown one during your opponent's upkeep. For a total of 8 unknown cards.
In scenario 1&2 you see the most "unknown" cards. I'd prefer scenario 2, because the upkeep-portent draw and the brainstorm draws are from a smaller "population" of unknown cards, because you still have some unwanted cards on the bottom of your library. Therefore the chance of drawing what you want is slightly bigger.
So after thinking about it, I thought that this was the right sequence:
1. Play Brainstorm
2. Crack fetchland
3. Play Serum Visions
4. Play Portent
Brainstorm will pull 3 cards out of your library, but it puts 2 back. Assuming none of them are Bolts, that still means your library has one less non-Bolt card in it.
Fetching pulls another non-Bolt out of the deck, as well as clearing the top for the subsequent draw spells.
Serum Visions draws you another card, either finding Bolt or pulling out another non-Bolt card. You then get to Scry, which puts two more non-Bolt cards on the bottom of the deck, essentially shrinking the library even more.
At this point, if you haven't found the Bolt, at least your library is 5 cards smaller than it was before, which makes it significantly more likely to hit a Bolt with the Portent, which shows you 3 new cards. If you still don't see the Bolt, and you have to shuffle, the 2 cards you Scryed to the bottom get put back into the mix, but at least you've got one more shot on the next turn's upkeep.
In total, you see 10 cards, which is the most important figure, but the reason this is better than the other options is that you maximize the deckthinning effects of the cantrips and the fetchland.
However, one thing I missed in this analysis is the possibility of finding both another 1cc draw spell and the land to play it. Taking this into account, I believe this may be the correct sequence, instead:
1. Play Serum Visions
2. Play Brainstorm
3. Crack fetchland
4. Play Portent
This sequence gives you a better chance of playing a 4th draw spell because it lets you utilize the Serum Visions' Scry cards to assemble the little "combo" of land + draw spell. If Serum Visions shows you either a draw spell or a land, either in the drawn card or one of the Scry cards, you can decide to keep it and hope for Brainstorm to find you the other. If Serum Visions shows you both, than you will definitely want to Brainstorm into them.
Imagine that Serum Visions draws you a blank card, but one of the cards you see with the Scry is a Portent. You can leave it there and put the other card on the bottom of the deck, and then play the Brainstorm. Now, if you don't see a land, you've reduced the number of new cards you'll see this turn, but if you do hit a land, you've got a 2nd Portent to play, which gets you a look a 3 new cards after you play the 1st Portent (and shuffle).
The only downside to this sequence, relative to the one I posted above, is that you have to play both the Brainstorm and the Serum Visions before fetching, which means that there is an extra land still in the deck while you resolve the Serum Visions. That land may make it easier to manage a 4th draw spell, but it is certainly not a Lightning Bolt.
In most situations, I'm pretty sure this 2nd option is better, but there might be exceptions. The size of your deck, the number of lands left in it, and the number of draw spells left in it each need to be taken into account when you decide whether or not the slight probability advantage of the 1st option is outweighed by the slight chance of playing a 4th draw spell that the 2nd option gives you.
Now, the scenario changes if you don't have a fetchland. Mad Zur and I will work on it (he helped a lot with this post), and we'll get back to the thread later.
To recap, the first scenario:
Turn 9, you have 2 Trops, 1 Fetchland and 1 Volcanic in play.
No land played yet. Opponent is on 3 life, kill with Bolt.
Your hand: Portent, Serum Visions, Brainstorm
I would go:
1) Serum Visions
2) Brainstorm
3) crack Fetch
4) Portent
The same as in ObFreely's excellent analysis. The effect of the additional land in the library while resolving SV is marginal, and the payoff by an additional cantrip is worth it.
-------------
The second scenario, once again:
Turn 9, you have 2 Trops and 2 Volcs in play.
No land played yet. Find Bolt to win the game.
Your hand: Portent, Serum Visions, Brainstorm.
I would do the following play:
1) Portent (looking for cantrip or land to put on top)
2) Serum Visions (draw cantrip or land)
3) Brainstorm (dig into the missing piece)
4) Land, cantrip
Portent gives you greater control and selection over the Serum Visions draw (optimally drawing either land, cantrip or bolt), hence I started with that. If there is a land or cantrip, you can draw it with SV and put the unneeded cards on the bottom.
Now you're digging into 3 fresh cards with the Brainstorm, hopefully giving you the Bolt or the missing piece to continue the cantrip chain.
The downside on this scenario is even if you manage to pull of the 4th cantrip, is that there are two non-Bolt cards already on top of the library. You also have to put two known cards on the bottom of your library with the SV if you don't shuffle with Portent. I don't know if the added control over the SV draw is worth those drawbacks.
Thus, it might be feasible to go:
1) Serum Visions
2) Portent (shuffle)
3) Brainstorm
4) land, cantrip
Please correct me if I'm wrong, like I said, I'm not completely sure what the best play is.
To all writers out there: this is very good material for an in-depth Threshold strategy article.
OK, so you play the brainstorm on your turn and you find a land and a cantrip. But what if the land is not a fetchland? A short overview for all of the 3 cantrips.
If it's a serum visions, you'll see an additional card this turn (digging though brainstorm). The first portent-draw nets you another "new" card. So this nets you +2 unknown cards.
If it's a brainstorm, you'll see an additional card this turn (digging though brainstorm). The first portent-draw is a known card you put back with the drawn brainstorm. This only shows you +1 unknown card.
If it's a portent, you'll see an additional card this turn (digging though brainstorm). You'll see 2 additional random cards during your opponent's upkeep. This shows you +3 new cards.
So even if you find a "normal" land and a brainstorm, you'll see at least as much cards as you'd see if you play the brainstorm after the upkeep trigger of the portent. So this approach seems better.
If you start to include cards in your analysis you still have to draw however, you should think about probabilities you'd draw them. If you have the choice to make the cantrip chain a little longer, you'll have to make a decision: Is the chance I'd draw Bolt AND draw AND land bigger in the number of cards I'll see in this scenario then the chance I'll just find bolt in the other scenario, even though I'll see less cards.
In short, you'll need a probability calculator if you use this approach to find the "probably optimal" play :wink: .
I just skimmed the discussion below, so I'll just give my answer and see what other people wrote after I post this.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongo
After some thought, I don't think there's a heck of a lot of difference when looking at the top play combinations. But here's what I'd do:
I'd lead with the Serum Visions first--hoping to immediately draw into another card drawer or the Bolt, though neither of those are terribly likely. If I drew into a land or a useless counter, that'd be one of the cards I'll shuffle back with Brainstorm. Off the scry, I'd move anything that isn't a card drawer or the bolt to the bottom of the library--but keep the card drawers on top. The only thing I don't like about this play is not having any control of the card I drew off SV--that's one way to make this sequence of spells better, but there are trade-offs, as noted below.
Next I'd play Brainstorm and hope to draw into more card drawers. By this time I've likely seen at least 2 useless cards (land, counter, etc.), which I'd shuffle back with the Flooded Strand, which I'd activate now. Then I'd tap another Trop to cast Portent. If I saw the Bolt, great, if I saw another Brainstorm, I'd move that to the top of my Library--otherwise I'd shuffle these cards away. But note that drawing into any Sorcery speed drawers with Portent at this point is really bad--which is one of the reasons I don't care for the card. It sucks when you're under this kind of pressure and is best when the game state is neutral of you're already winning.
Anyway, this sequence of plays lets you see at least ten new cards--and probably more, depending on what we drew off SV and Brainstorm (plus another Brainstorm off Portent during our opponent's upkeep). But that's the problem with this kind of analysis in the abstract. The deck is really interactive and all of our plays, after the first one, can be radically different depending on what we draw once we start.
But, that's my answer:
1) Serum Visions
2) Brainstorm
3) Crack Strand
4) Portent
Now let me see what other people said...
Edit - Looking back, I agree with Ob Freely's Option B but nothing I read has me doing anything differently.
Incidentally, the right answer is the one that has you drawing the most amount of cards with the least amount of randomness. But it's hard to gain one without sacrificing the other (consistency vs. raw card drawing). Being a gambler, I'd rather see more cards with a greater amount of unpredictability than the alternative. :)
What's the best answer to the UGW mirror?
I've been trying FTK, but it feels a little slow (especially when you want to take care of Jotun Grunt earlier). Enforcer is also a big problem.
Loaming Shaman is amazing, since it gives you a Tormod's Crypt-like effect with a 3/2 body attached to it.
Now that Grunt is going around, FTK looks pretty good (there are more than just Werebears for it to target, now).
Control Magic might be even better, though, since it can deal with Enforcers as well, and stealing a Grunt or Enforcer should be gamebreaking. Along this same vein, Mind Harness might be worth looking at, although it can't take Grunts.
That's a pretty cool idea. Having the ability to answer Grunt seems critiqual. So I think control magic would be a better option than Mind Harness.
Vs. what other decks would control magic also be good against though? Seems weak vs. Angel stompy (with thier mothers and Parallex Wave.) I haven't tested, but FTK seems like it would help in the match-up.
Also, how has Loaming Shaman been? Is it better than crypt? It loses the turn 1 by pass discard/counter factor and it's instant speed (important vs. Iggy Pop). 3/2 boddy seems nice though, trades with the mongrel and mages.
Other thoughts?
Let me try this again...
I say we put Vedalken Shackles in the Sideboard?
It's Control Magic, but they side in Needles on game 3... we side out Shackles on Game 3. So what do ya say?
Can I see the lists that everyone is using right now?... I'm making a major move to the deck by adding 4 Stifles MD... To shore the combo match-up that we have a bit weaker game against than UGW because of the loss of Meddling Mage, as well as for its overall utility... I'm only running 8 creatures MD though, which might rpove to be a liability, though I haven't felt it during my (pretty limited) testing so far...
The problem I've found with running only 8 creatures in this deck (bears and gooses, I presume) is that your late game becomes shaky. If you haven't dealt very much damage early game, and the ground becomes bogged down, your burn becomes rather weak. It's often impractical to try to burn the other person out, and as removal it becomes obsolete late game vs some decks. Fledgling dragon, even as a 1-of, allows you to break these stalemates, or just swing once and put your opponent into burn range. He's also your answer to enforcer from the pseudo-mirror.
I think because of the nature of the removal this deck runs, you need to play a tad more aggressively than with the white splash. In short: try running a dragon or two.
Are people still running BTS? I was running 1 Dragon, and one Shaman, I run 4 mental notes, and I noted Fledgling Dragon away 3 too many times, so I decided to take him out. I play 2 BTS now. I have 2 reasons why I took him out. Burning Tree Shaman costs less and I only have one Dragon. I am definately going to try loaming shaman in the sideboard though. Where would you put Control Magic? maindeck or sideboard? Forgive me if that has already been answered, but I just quickly skimmed through the thread.
Yes, they are. I can just talk about the German players and most of them are playing the BTS. In my opinion it is a very powerful creature against nearly every deck (e.g. Salvager, VG, Landstill...). The idea of Vedalken Shackles seems to be very interesting, but I think that you will have problems to take over an Enforcer or a Grunt, because you are just playing 17 lands. And from these 17 lands, how much are Islands?Quote:
Originally Posted by Angel of Despair
You only play 17 lands if you run at least 11-12 Cantrips with Library Manipulation. People usually run 18 if they run only 8 Cantrips with Library Manipulation, and 4 Mental Notes. So getting the opposing creature is rather easy, if you run at least 16 Islands.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tobias Moeller
BTS is a powerful creature, but sometimes I really dislike the fact that it's not evasive like Dragon, and getting 2 Red mana is easy if you dont crack your fetchlands early like most people.
I agree with Anti~American4621. Getting double colors at one point of the game has rarly been a problem for me. I will concede that it can be and often is very difficult vs. Various versions of Deadguy (Sinkhole, Vindicate, Wasteland, discard and now possibly small pox.) But Short from that one match-up, it is relativly easy to obtain double colors. You might have some trouble vs. Gobs (with 8x Ports/wates) but usually that just slows you down a couple turns . . . and you have such a great match-up vs. them anyways.
On the point of fetchlands, you really should save at least 1 (of the extra ones) for your brainstorms (as a shuffle effect). You can keep them in your hand as well as a bluff or cards to throw back with brainstorm.
What have we learned today? If you save your lands in your hand, and you draw a Brainstorm, your ensured better card quality.Quote:
Originally Posted by FallenOmnipotent
I've been testing a new version. First, the decklist:
4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Werebear
2 Wee Dragonauts
4 Brainstorm
4 Portent
4 Serum Visions
4 Predict
4 Force of Will
3 Counterspell
3 Daze
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Magma Jet
4 Volcanic Island
4 Tropical Island
3 Flooded Strand
3 Polluted Delta
2 Island
SB:
3 Control Magic
3 Naturalize
3 Stifle
3 Pyroclasm
3 REB/FTK/Needle/etc.
This version has been doing very well for me. In a Goblin/Gro/Solidarity meta, I even dare to say it is the best deck.
The Dragonauts may need some explanations. Although they might seem junky, they can grow very quickly because 34 cards in the deck are sorceries or instants. 7 to 11 point swings are not uncommon. They have nice synergy with the cantrips and direct damage and a very manageable cost at 1UR (they can also be pitched to Force, unlike BTS or Dragon).
The big advantage that UGR Gro has over its UGW cousin is the ability to quickly switch between control and aggro, and the Dragonauts really assist that strategy.
Another reason why I like this particular UGR version better is its improved cantrip base. With Magma Jet, you have 20 spells that can manipulate your library. Not only is this important for ensuring better card quality, but also card quantity because you have a very high chance of drawing 2 with Predict.
The versatility of the sideboard is another major selling point.
Control Magic is the hidden gem here, as it gives you a way to deal with big creatures, which are difficult to handle. It also trumps the mirror because it can steal Enforcers, Grunts and Werebears.
Stifle is useful in a lot of situations. Together with Pyroclasm, the post-board Goblin matchup should be favorable. The rest of the board should be obvious.
The last 3 slots can change depending on the meta.
I'm really interested in some good feedback!
Ive noticed for a long time that people say UGR thresh has a way weaker match-up against combo than UGW does due to ugw running mage. However, Ive ALSO noticed that there is a number of UGW thresh decks that haven't been running meddling mage at all. Just check out jesse hatfields' deck at the last duel for duals day one. He took second place and wasn't running any meddling mages main or side. I don't know if he got paired up against any combo that day but he must have felt confidant enough about his combo match ups not to run them. My main question is...do you think that ugr thresh has THAT much worse of a combo match up than ugw does or do you think regardless of ugw or ugr, the combo match can be won easily if you play the right counters at the right times?...I'm not saying I agree with one or the other but i'm just throwing the thought out there..what do you guys think?
Well, take this as you will, but Anti~American4621 says he finds the GUr Thresh vs. Solidarity match-up quite favorable. I, on the other hand, feel that if it's a good solidarity player, it's quite unfavorable. A big differance is that Anti~American4621 has played vs. Solidarity an uncountable amount of times (might be slightly exagerated); I have played against solidarity (with competant players) less than 10 times my whole life. (There aren't very many big profile 1.5 tournements over here in MN.) I've lost the majority of those times. However, let it be noted that I didn't play REBs back then (was trying out Hidden Mongoose).
I believe that the statement claiming UGr's Thresh's combo match-up to be A LOT worse than UGw is rather injust. It most likly incorporates less expiranced players (like me -- I'm not [necesserily] a bad player, but I have had very little encounters with combo...however, I am a bad speller).
Medling mage undoubtably helps vs. combo. But I guess it is being questioned as to whether it's needed or not (over kill? Too narrow? etc.) In the end, I think that R Thresh's combo match-up is worse than W's, but not way weaker.
In my opinion, Red's burn is a significantly weaker form of applying preasure. White potentially has mage which is both a defensive and offensive play. How ever, it's StPs become a dead card (but this should be too much of a problem. More often than not, you'll be able to shuffle it away with one of the cantrips/fetchlands.)
Edit: By Bongo's post above, apperantly he is having a relativly good time vs. solidarity too.
I have a good winning percentage against combo because I pack 4 Stifles MD... Might not be too much of an addition, but with all the counterspells in the deck, it really tightens up the storm combo MU.
I also find it very valuable in the Goblins MU, especially knowing that they're not expecting it. :tongue:
i like the idea of md stifle...I would probably play 3 if I did...one thing I was thinking about though was...Would I rather run 3 md stifle, or 3 md pithing needle? although pithing needle seems like the definate choice, stifle can stop combo and is also an instant speed spell (you can stop fetchlands, waste,etc and has the element of surprise) while needle is perminant, and stops cards, the opponent can play around it more...personally I think that running both would be way too much...what do you guys think is better? stifle vs needle?
non. Run 11 burn cards. Wanna see this deck's success? Ask Wastedlife, he won a Mox and Top 8ed a lotus tourney with the deck. It's still the same, agressive and hardly rusn out of fuel. Red Thresh isnt menat to be more aggressive, but rather a stronger efficientcy for aggro-metagames. In fact. it can also take down Solidarity if you know how to play it right. You can so easily win against a ton of decks without the help of Mage.
Anyways. Needle. Needles stop Vial from pumping guys out under the counter radar and abuse rediculous amounts of mana.
Stifle is good too. It beats Goblins, and whips IGG and some other stuff. It can also stop SoFI and Jitte triggers.
Heres his deck before he retired from UGR...
// Lands 17
4 Wooded Foothills
3 Flooded Strand
4 Volcanic Island
3 Tropical Island
1 Forest
1 Mountain
1 Island
// Creatures 10
4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Werebear
2 Fledgling Dragon
// Spells 33
4 Brainstorm
4 Serum Visions
4 Predict
3 Daze
3 Counterspell
4 Force of Will
4 Lightning Bolt
4 Magma Jet
3 Fire // Ice
// Sideboard 15
4 Pyroclasm
3 Flametongue Kavu
3 Krosan Grip/Naturalize
5 Open Slots.
12 Red Sources. You have more Burn + Dragon than Men.
To get that thing out of the way once and for all, UGR's combo matchup isn't significantly worse than UGW's. What it lacks in Meddling Mages, it makes up in its quicker clock, better card selection to get counters and the Stifles/REBs in the board.
Now, I'd really like some intelligent conversation about my new version posted above.
What's your opinion on Wee Dragonauts?
Any suggestions?
To heat this thing up, I will make a broad statement: Right now, UGR Thresh is better than UGW.
This statement might be controversial, but that doesn't make it meaningful. Can you back it up with some elaboration?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongo
This is the closest thing to a point you've made for UGR being better than UGW, and it also needs a lot more elaboration.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongo
Please understand that I am not disagreeing with you, but that may change if you clarify your argument a little. I can certainly say I'm skeptical, since having no removal pretty much necessarily puts UGR in the hole against other Gro decks. Is UGR's Goblin matchup better enough to outweigh its UGW Gro matchup?
White has better sideboard options, more relevant removal, and Jotun Grunt. Grunt alone makes White better in my opinion.
I agree with him. White has more metagame answers and stronger win conditions, such as Mystic Enforcer, Jotun Grunt, Nantuko Monastery, and much more. It also has answers to certain aggro decks, like Tivadar's Crusade, Worship, Condemn, and Reprisal. Control answers are also quite revelent, such as Armageddon. Ray of Revelation is also quite good in this deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by troopatroop
Red is only a metagame concern, but according to Wastedlife, Red has the exact momentum as White Pre-Board, but it's reach and velocity is much better. As for the deck Pre-Board, it's probably going to side in something like Stifles or something.
Need to double post.Quote:
Originally Posted by FallenOmnipotent
This is how you play against Solidarity.
1. Keep your mana open, and dont tap yourself out.
2. Predict on EOT, always. If your opponent is Remanding it, let it be.
3. Play men. You only need at most 2-3 men on the board. Exclude Dragon.
4. EOT, Cantrip, Burn, and/or set-up Predict.
5. Analyze their board position when they decide to go off,
i. If they have 5 or less lands, counter the first untap effect and counter eveything else. You dont want them having enough mana to do tricks with the stack.
ii. If they have a lot of Lands, just Counter their meditates or something. Even their untap effect wouldn't be a bad play. Make sure they cant Turnabout you, or else your screwed. If they do, hopefully you can Burn them in resp to that with some last few points of damage before your opponent goes off, but that's rare.
But one problem I do have is that with the lack of Portent, it's much harder for me to find counters, and Burn is more of a give/take situation on how you want to use your cantrips.
Just as a note, I saw a post a few back discussing control magic. While I'm not entirely sure I like that card in this deck, if other people like it, wouldn't treachery be worth a look? Five is more than four, yes, but you get to untap and have counter/burn backup after you steal their best creature. Thoughts?
I summed that up for you. Kinda funny.Quote:
Originally Posted by Anti~American4621
I think Stifle would best be used as LD, your best chance is to race them. Get a turn one or two critter, get it thresh and dig for burn burn burn.
I know some germans have been playing Hidden Gibbons in the sideboard to help out.
And Stifle would disable them from a Shuffle effect, meaning that they will draw squat from their Brainstorms. Also, it would make the first two cards from their Meditates horrid.Quote:
Originally Posted by bane_of_the_living
And Stifle would disable them from a Shuffle effect, meaning that they will draw squat from their Brainstorms. Also, it would make the first two cards from their Meditates horrid. That wouldn't be a bad idea, but you have a favorable match-up against them already, however, Needle is very good against Salvagers, Goblins, Angel Stompy, decent versus Faerie Stompy, and some more random decks.Quote:
Originally Posted by bane_of_the_living
Quote:
Originally Posted by Obfuscate Freely
1) UGR is stronger than UGW against Goblins and aggro. This is huge because the metagame right now (or at least the metagame as I see it) is still aggro-based.
I've played with UGW against Goblins, and I don't think it is favorable. The Tivadar's Crusade's in the board prove this. In game 1, UGR has a better chance, and in sideboarded games it is favorable (3 Pyroclasm and 3 Stifle).
UGW only has Swords for in-game removal, which I often found to be not enough.
There is also an interesting tactical twist in sideboarded games with UGR - aggro tends to slowplay because they don't want to trade Xfor1 into a Pyroclasm. Against UGW, I usually put out as much threats as possible, since I only have to worry about Swords and there is no mass removal.
2) UGR has the better cantrip base.
Assuming one doesn't use Mental Note (which I think is subpar), you have:
4 Brainstorm
4 Portent
4 Serum Visions
4 Predict
4 Magma Jet
to manipulate your library, which is more than any other Gro list I know of. Library manipulation is the heart and soul of this deck, ensuring better card quality. With my cantrip base, you almost always name the right card with Predict, ensuring card quantity to keep up the pressure.
3) UGR can switch better between roles.
Because the white options in general are very defensive, UGW has to rely on its creatures for offense.
Now, UGR is a lot more flexible, since burn can be used defensively and offensively.
Burn offers a way to win outside of combat damage. This is very important in a stalemate on the board and against control decks when you need to get through those last points.
Wee Dragonauts also helps in this regard, as it is cheap and synergistic with the cantrip and burn spells. It's also a threat with flying that is not affected by graveyard hate and can be pitched to Force.
Not only does Burn offer more flexibility, it also speeds up the clock.
These are the 3 main reasons why I think UGR is better than UGW in the current metagame.
The only "weakness" which is often criticized is the pseudo-mirror against UGW. If that is the only bad matchup for UGR, I'll accept that, because right now, UGW has more bad matchups, of which the Goblin matchup is the most significant. I'd like to go more in-depth, though:
Game 1, UGR is the underdog because of Swords. The proper role here is aggro, because you don't want UGW to draw into Swords. Force them into the defensive with beats & burn and refill with Predict.
Actually, I like my chances against Mental Note builds, since it is very likely that I end up with better card quality (and quantity in case they don't run Predict), which can help to negate the impact of Swords.
Now, the sideboarded games get more interesting. White often sides in additional copies of Enforcer and Jotun Grunts. I side in Control Magic and FTK, which trump those UGW's board plan because they're essentially 2for1 that deal with the opponents sideboard strategy, too.
The only card in UGW that is hard to answer is Monastery. Because sideboards vary wildly, this is hard to predict. But so far, I've had good results with the Control Magic/FTK plan.
I hope this explains why I think UGR is better than UGW right now.
I don't think it's fair to say red is stronger against aggro in general. What aggro are you talking about specifically? I'd much rather have white against Angel Stompy, for example. And without Pithing Needle, I'm not even sure your build would be better against Goblins.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bongo
This has very little to do with the deck being red. One could easily playQuote:
2) UGR has the better cantrip base.
Assuming one doesn't use Mental Note (which I think is subpar), you have:
4 Brainstorm
4 Portent
4 Serum Visions
4 Predict
4 Magma Jet
to manipulate your library, which is more than any other Gro list I know of.
4 Brainstorm
4 Portent
4 Serum Visions
4 Sleight of Hand
4 Predict
...or something like that.
This point is debatable, and if it's true, I don't think it makes enough of an impact to be a major issue. The vast majority of times burn goes to the head are when there are no creatures on the board it can kill. That means either an empty board (in which case you were free to go on the offensive anyway and I doubt the 2-3 damage helped significantly) or a board with creatures you can't kill (in which case you may in fact have to leave creatures back to block, rather than attack with them). There are actually some situations where having StP would make it easier for you to switch roles by removing a potential blocker that burn wouldn't kill.Quote:
3) UGR can switch better between roles.
Because the white options in general are very defensive, UGW has to rely on its creatures for offense.
No, the weakness is generally worse removal, which manifests itself primarily in the mirror but in other matchups as well. There are a good amount of creatures in this format that don't die to red removal. None of them are as popular as the mirror, of course, but they can add up.Quote:
The only "weakness" which is often criticized is the pseudo-mirror against UGW.
Well Sleight of Hand doesnt deal 2 damage. And it sucks. Bongo have you considered Lavadart for its Dragonaut awsomeness?Quote:
Originally Posted by Mad Zur