You have to mulligan more with Rogue Hermit than belcher and graveyard hate destroys you.
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Thanks for the answers.
So basically a well tuned (statistacally proven) burning wish belcher deck is the deck of choice for the turn-one-high-variance-blue-mage-hater-grinder (that word would work in german) (not taking into account the possible fun factor).
I guess thats also why more belcher lists appear in random top16s than the Hermit.
(Also that "Whoopsie, all non-land" or whatever name for this deck is so much worse than Rogue Hermit)
So I've tried the standard 8 win conditions list as well as versions with 7 dudes + 4 living wish.
For the living wish version I played one Balustrade Spy in the SB because LED can be a mana source for Informer's activation.
I initially leaned towards the 11 win con version as I figured I would be muliganning less (I also play 11 win cons in belcher). However I'm not sure if I actually mulligan less than the 8 win condition one. The reason is that we play the following dead cards:
5 narcomoeba +bridge (4/1 or 3/2)
2-3 cabal therapy
1 Dread Return
1 Lab Maniac
1 Underworld Cereberus
This isn't even including the protection cards in the main (pact of negation, chancellor of the annex)
Belcher has 11 win cons as well but all of the other cards are mana (except probe). So the fact that living wish requires 6 mana...you need in your opening hand the following example combinations:
1 living wish
6 net 1 mana cards (0 chrome mox)
or:
1 living wish
1 LED (net 3)
3 other mana sources (not chrome mox)
I found myself taking mulligans for almost every wish hand I had because I couldn't turn 1 or even turn 2 most of the time since I either had at least 1 dead card or another win condition (or protection if I was playing it).
Has anyone had success with the living wish version? I can't seem to find any tournament results....
What sort of sideboards do you guys use? I sold all my cards, bought a new computer and some clothes. Now I need some new hobbies and things to do, so... yeah. Do you have any non LED sideboards as of now and if you do, what do they look like? I'll be buying the LED's at some point, but it'll take some time to get them so in the meanwhile I would like to go on with a budget. ;)
The sideboard Belcher/LED/Spoils plan is quite weak in my opinion. You can't use pact of negation to force through your combo unless you have the mana to activate Belcher on the same turn.
Lets say you win G1 so your opponent starts G2. If you don't sideboard at all you die to Tormod's Crypt or Grafdiggers Cage. Surgical extraction you can therapy or use pact of negation. Crypt is not at all common and cage is only played as a 1 of; 2 of MAX. Problems arise when you can't go off turn 1 and you die to the turn 2 hate: Rest in Peace / Relic of Progenitus (relic doesn't activate on turn 1). Is it really worth playing the slower Belcher plan which you can't reliably force through with pact of negation? If you lose G2, and you start G3 would you still keep the Belcher plan?
Anyways, if you're deadset on playing a transformation sideboard you could try Empty the Warrens which doesn't use LED. I would vote for more protection (4 pact of negation main):
4 Nature's Claim (vs leyline of the void)
4 Chancellor of the Annex (sideboard only vs non-blue decks with Thoughtseize/Duress if you're on the Draw)
7 other spots (Duress, Unmask, etc...)
Why this tread cannot enter the category of "Established Decks" in this forum?
I suppose it could be. The problem with combo decks like this (and Belcher) is that not many people want to coinflip vs Force of Will decks at a large tournament thus there are little top 8 finishes. There is only one top 8 finish this year (actually 1st place): http://tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=16193&iddeck=120949
I'm not entirely convinced on some of his choices like Ignot Chewer maindeck over lets say Pact of Negation (could be a typo in the list though). Manamorphose is also equally as weak. It's only purpose is to filter for black mana, the draw is very deceiving. Furthermore, 3 narc/2 bridge split is strictly better as it gives you an additional black card for Chrome Mox.
Depending on the match-up, wishing for Magus of the Moon requires only 5 mana (as opposed to 6 for Desecration Demon / Phyrexian Obliterator). Containment Priest and Thalia/Canonist are also options in the combo mirror. If you want to minimize the chances of having additional win conditions, you can always remove the Living Wish tool-box and add additional mana. However, this locks you into the Past in Flames kill and gives no outs to graveyard hate.
Tomb of Urami is an option but doesn't hit as hard as Desecration Demon (same mana requirement). The Past in Flames kill saves you deck space by cutting down on the number of dead cards, making the deck more consistent (though a little slower). The Living Wish tool-box is optional but should probably be included since you're playing LED in this version already.
Hi guys,
I'm a big fan of this deck, and am looking to improve my list as much as possible.
Please let me know what your opinions are for card choices and their counts.
I chose the Sutured Ghoul win over Laboratory Maniac because of cards like Lightning Bolt (and it requires 1 fewer card).
The 3 Narcomoeba/2 Bridge from Below is the best option I have found.
I don't quite like the transformational sideboard, but it usually blind sides people who put in graveyard hate (I have not had good experience with Spoils of the Vault, it just kills me).
Pact of Negation and Cabal Therapy provide a lot of cover for the combo.
25 Creatures
4 Balustrade Spy
4 Undercity Informer
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
3 Narcomoeba
1 Wild Cantor
4 Street Wraith
1 Sutured Ghoul
35 Spells
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal
4 Pact of Negation
3 Summoner's Pact
2 Bridge from Below
1 Dragon's Breath
1 Dread Return
4 Cabal Therapy
Sideboard
4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
3 Seething Song
1 Manamorphose
3 Empty the Warrens
I suggest you don't play Azami, since it takes up one more slot in the deck and just play something like:
4 Simian Spirit Guide
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
1 Wild Cantor
4 Summoner's Pact
4 Lotus Petal
3 Chrome Mox
4 Dark Ritual
4 Cabal Ritual
4 Manamorphose
4 Balustrade Spy
4 Undercity Informer
4 Narcomoeba
1 Dread Return
1 Laboratory Maniac
1 Underworld Cerberus
4 Gitaxian Probe
4 Street Wraith
3 Cabal Therapy
1 Bridge from Below
1 Pact of Negation
If you combo you will have 4 Street wraiths in your hand so if they try to bolt your Labman just cycle again for the win.
I don't think Street Wraith's cycling and black imprint is worth playing, you can't rely on cycling in order to find your win conditions and you have enough black cards already for Chrome Mox. You should play Manamorphose instead, because Manamorphose enables BB in order to make your Cabal Therapies real considerations and thus opponents will have to think about countering Manamorphose.
4 Cabal Therapy is way too many copies, 2 or 3 max, and I don't see any reason to cut a copy of Summoner's Pact at all. Gitaxian Probe is also quite shit, even when you see your opponent's hand the likelyhood is you can't do anything with the information, you can't rely on cycling in order to find your win conditions and you're cutting initial mana sources to play it as well.
Belcher is an ok option but Warrens is super sketchy considering you're already playing Pacts. Personally I think Spoils is a pretty legit option, 20% to die or not you have so many cards that you need to SB out if you're going to transofrm and Spoils has some of the highest utility possible.