1) Ok seems legit. here is an old article with a player's experience & "maths" included.
http://www.channelfireball.com/artic...-force-of-will
-According to the writer -> 15 seems to be the bare minimum to play FOW. So >=15 , feel free to use the number that fits you.
2) While I could agree with some of your logic, I think you don't get my point. I'm comparing Probe with Ponder to know which one is better in terms of fulfilling a deck's strategy: ramping to go over the top.
And even if you are not "digging" with Probe, in a certain sense, you are playing them as a 4-of which, per definition, increases by 0,x % your odds to see every other cards in your deck, including the ones you really want to see (explorer + CT):
a) Paying 1 for just drawing 1 is bad when you could have "ponder" instead. The first probe is very strong. Each other iteration is average (you need to know opponent's hand) to very bad (you pay 1/2 life to draw 1). Ponder is never strong as a Probe could be in certain circumstances, but Ponder will never be bad.
b) If I have to evaluate synergy & individual worth of a card, here. Ponder > Probe, if your goal is to setup a CT + Explorer. And yes that is my main goal.
c) We are no combo/tempo deck, here. We are not
pro-active but
re-actif. We are a control archetype. Probe is better for proactive decks.
d) DTT>TC for reactive decks:
- 2 chosen cards > 3 unknown when you are looking for answers.
- DTT is instant and can be played (EOOT) without
losing tempo at the constraint of double blue. Actually, by playing TC you can lose some crucial tempo.
I think we can agree to disagree on this. I'm fine, until you or me change his mind :cool: