[DTB] U/G/x Thresh - a.k.a. Not Quite Gro, SuperGro

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Originally Posted by Obfuscate Freely

I don't think Mental Note is optimal in any Gro list, regardless of color. Cutting Predict for Night's Whisper is defensible, but Portent will always be a better choice than Mental Note.

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This is a very bold statement. The way you worded it, you don't believe the 1st place Lille list was optimal (even for its own metagame)? I find it hard to believe that the first place list of a GP isn't at least optimal within the tournament. You also claim that Portent is "always" better then Mental Note? I am positive there are multiple positions in which I would rather have Mental Note - such as having a Mongoose on the table with a Warchief across from it and 4 cards in the grave. If you had said *almost* always then I wouldn't have bothered to post, but "always" is far too stong an assumption. If the meta is full of fast aggro decks I believe Mental Note is a much better choice then Portent. I've found the best way to beat a lot of the speed-aggro decks in the format (R/G Beatz, Goblins) isn't to win with card advantage, but to lay down giant creatures. My specific gameplan against Goblins is to get Threshold as fast as possible and get some large blockers down.

Recently I haven't seen any well worded or worthwhile arguements for OR against the Predict/Mental Note arguement. Bardo's and Ob's earlier posts were very good, lets get back to those types instead of these recent 2 liners.

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Originally Posted by Evil Roopey

No one said that you couldn't run Mental Note and Portent side by side. In fact, it's probably even better that way.

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Mental Note is worse than all of the other draw spell options, as well. If you have room for it, you should be playing something else in its place.

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Originally Posted by urza_insane

This is a very bold statement. The way you worded it, you don't believe the 1st place Lille list was optimal (even for its own metagame)? I find it hard to believe that the first place list of a GP isn't at least optimal within the tournament.

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The fact that the deck won the tournament is not proof that it is optimal. If you take Summersberger's list to be optimal, then we should all be highly impressed with Krutil's performance, since his deck is so different from the optimal list (Summersberger's), and yet he still managed a 2nd place finish!

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You also claim that Portent is "always" better then Mental Note? I am positive there are multiple positions in which I would rather have Mental Note - such as having a Mongoose on the table with a Warchief across from it and 4 cards in the grave. If you had said *almost* always then I wouldn't have bothered to post, but "always" is far too stong an assumption.

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What I meant is that it is always better to include Portent in your decklist over Mental Note. Extrapolated, this means that Portent is stronger than Mental Note in the majority of possible situations within any given tournament field.

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If the meta is full of fast aggro decks I believe Mental Note is a much better choice then Portent. I've found the best way to beat a lot of the speed-aggro decks in the format (R/G Beatz, Goblins) isn't to win with card advantage, but to lay down giant creatures. My specific gameplan against Goblins is to get Threshold as fast as possible and get some large blockers down.

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Gro's spell-based defense comes online much sooner than do it's creatures (Force is online from the onset of the game), so it is better to slow an aggro deck's early development with countermagic and removal than with creatures. Threshold should be achieved naturally by turn 3 or 4, whether or not you run Mental Note, so that is when the creatures can come down to stabilize the board and win the game.

The advantages Portent has over Mental Note are its abilities to fix your early game mana situation, strengthen your spell-based defenses before your creatures can be utilized, and ensure you have those creatures when you do need them.

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Recently I haven't seen any well worded or worthwhile arguements for OR against the Predict/Mental Note arguement. Bardo's and Ob's earlier posts were very good, lets get back to those types instead of these recent 2 liners.

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Hey, what's wrong with being concise? :cP

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Mental Note is worse than all of the other draw spell options, as well. If you have room for it, you should be playing something else in its place.

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So when I don't think that Predict is better than Mental Note, which is the arguement not Portent, you just say, "Your wrong "?

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Touche?

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Originally Posted by Evil Roopey

So when I don't think that Predict is better than Mental Note, which is the arguement not Portent, you just say, "Your wrong "

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Cutting Predict doesn't make Mental Note any better. Since you seem to need a rehash:

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Originally Posted by me

Mental Note is abyssmally bad at chaining into more cantrips, or digging for threats, or finding answers. It can occasionally get you threshold a turn or two earlier, but getting seven cards into the graveyard happens plenty quick enough without sacrificing your midgame advantage. I think the card is awful in the deck.

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Originally Posted by me

Mental Note is awful in the mirror match because it's a poor manipulation spell. The Gro mirror is a battle of attrition that is won be whomever draws more creatures and removal spells. Rushing to threshold might let you get a few free hits in, but life totals are only marginally relevant until they're under 10. The midgame sacrifice is not worth it.

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Originally Posted by me

Gaining card advantage is actually very important against Goblins, and it also helps against Solidarity. In neither matchup would I want to sacrifice the draw engine for the small possibility of getting threshold sooner.

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Originally Posted by me, again

Mental Note isn't in the same league as the other cantrips, and that includes Portent. Brainstorm and Serum Visions let you see three cards, which is approximately three times as many as the one card Mental Note lets you look at. Portent actually lets you see four cards if you need it to.

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Originally Posted by me, one more time

One more time, reaching threshold with 15-16 draw spells is rarely difficult, but maintaining card quality advantage with Mental Note often is. It's effectiveness against Tormod's Crypt might be the absolute best argument for Mental Note's inclusion, but that alone doesn't make it worthwhile.

Neither does the card's synergy with Brainstorm, obviously.

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I thought that I had covered my reasoning against Mental Note well enough, already.

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Originally Posted by Evil Roopey

Note costs 1. Predict costs 2, twice as much as Mental Note, but is significantly more powerful. With that in mind, I think that the need to actually go through cantrips and pick up up needed cards is greater than wanting to be slower and actually gain card advantage.

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Mental Note doesn't "pick up needed cards," it gives you a single random draw off the top of your library. For 1 blue mana, this is horribly inefficient when compared to the other draw spells in the deck, and it is horribly inefficient when compared to other options such as Sleight of Hand and Opt.

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See where our veiws differ is in the fact that this deck does not need card advantage. It needs speed. The entire deck is based on tempo. You run "free counters" and cheap threats for this reason, and this reason alone. Why stretch it? There is no need.

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Gro does have severely undercosted threats and answers at its disposal, but a draw engine is necessary to form a cohesive deck out of them (and simply to utilize some of them, namely the threshold creatures). The advantage Gro has over other decks is that it can afford to spend a good portion of its mana on draw spells because these business spells are so cheap.

Yes, Gro can sometimes generate a tempo advantage as well, but it is the control deck in too many matchups for it to be called a "tempo deck." Luckily, the overwhelming card quality advantage that comes from chaining draw manipulation spells into powerful threats and answers is enough to win most games on its own.

I've always found the extra cards from Predict to be important. The extra card drawn off of a successful Predict will likely make a later Brainstorm that much stronger, or it will mitigate the alternative cost of a Force of Will, or it will simply draw an extra business spell when it is cast. However, if I were to remove Predict, it would have to be for something that offered manipulation comparable to the other draw spells. Thus, if you really don't like Predict, I would look at Sleight of Hand, Opt, or another 2cc option like Impulse or Telling Time before playing Mental Note.

I'm sorry to take a vacation from this thread for so long. Being viciously overworked at work (where I do most of my posting), and completely consumed with Hunter S Thompson's Fear and Loathing: on the Campaign Trail '72 at home (not to be confused with Hunter's sublime Fear and Loathing in Las Vegas) has left me with little time to discuss and debate MtG decks--even ones that I love--but I'll crawl out of my hole to at least make this post.

So, where were we?

(starting from June 4)

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

It bears mentioning that Mystic Enforcer is also desirable in many other matchups, from RGSA to Angel Stompy. I only board the card out against combo decks (which are highly favorable, anyway), and maybe Goblins.

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I'm not so sure he's needed against RGSA--Mongeese, Werebears, and even Meddling Magi do the job. The last time I played against RGSA in a tournament I boarded out my lone Enforcer and never felt he was needed. However, it is worth noting that he is a brick shit-house against Angel Stompy and the mirror. But against something like Rifter or 3/4cSlide, he's rather irrelevant. I'd rather draw Naturalize than Enforcer in those match-ups. He's also not going to get the job done against combo, since you don't want to tap out and not have Counterspell and cantrip mana open--but that's not terribly relevant since Thresh is strong against all forms of combo.

Anyway, I'm not convinced he's necessary at all in these builds--but there are times when he does show up, and it makes for a total blow-out, but I'm not convinced that then he's isn't overkill.

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

This is an internet discussion forum that exists for the purpose of developing and tweaking decks to make them better. It invalidates our entire dialogue for you to elude debate because the deck is "strong enough."

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Well, I think you meant "evade" not "elude," but that's a technical point. Also the form of the debate isn't an "Internet" or MTS phenomenon--it's classic Western philosophical debate. You know, someone adopts a position and uses logic and lines of argumentation to pursuade their debater (more likely, the audience) of something or another because some measure of truth can be found with reasoning and logical deduction.

I was offering an alternative out of this thorny mess and suggesting that maybe we're both right and there is not one objectively "correct" or "true" build; and that the variables are such that Mental Note is going to be better in some situtations and Portent better in others. So, with all of these unknowns, we may be both right, for all we know. I was not being evasive, I was being open-minded.

In any case...

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

I also disagree that the cantrip power levels are minor. Mental Note isn't in the same league as the other cantrips, and that includes Portent.

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I simply disagree. Hitting threshold a turn or three earlier in some match-ups, even in the mirror when getting in an early extra three, four or seven damage, will make the difference between winning and losing. It may be subtle, and it may be overlooked when you sign the match-slip, since it happened in what appeared to be an inconsequential turn (we have a natural bias looking at the endgame), but the extra damage that Note provides can (and has) absolutely won me games I would otherwise have lost.

I remember playing Portent when Ice Ages was on the shelves, and I have the same reservations of it now as I did in 1995 or 1996. Most of the time, you want (and sometimes need) action now--to drop a threat or draw a counter or play a land, etc.; and next turn is not good enough to drop a Mage or remove a threat (StP, etc.). I don't have to tell you the weakness of Portent, but there are games you will lose because you're playing it. Note that this is also true for Mental Note, compared with Portent as well. (see my paragraph above).

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

If you need to draw Mental Note to reach threshold, what happens when you don't draw Mental Note?

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The same thing with any other variation of this deck: you hang in there with your control cards and play the control role until you can become the aggressor. It happens with all versions of this deck when you draw too many non-sac'able permanents and not enough early cantrips/fetchlands.

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

Of course, if Mental Note is necessary with only 12 draw spells, I will argue that that alone is a good reason to run more.

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This reminds me of JP Meyer's set review for Fifth Dawn (this is paraphrasing since I haven't read it since it ran on SCG). When reviewing Serum Visions, JP remarked how long it would be until someone played a deck with 4 Quirion Dryads, 16 lands, and 40 cantrips. Obviously that would be a terrible deck, but in this absurd idea, I think there's something valuable.

The point I was making is that every cantrip you add is another spell that doesn't do anything on its own. They may drive the deck forward and create a lot of potent synergies, but they're not threats or answers on their own, they're catalysts for the deck. So the more draw spells you add, the more you're hollowing out the deck. In a lot of ways this is Good Thing since it effectively reduces your deck size, or artificially increases your 4-ofs, however which way you look at it. But too many cantips is going to make for a disaster, and too few will make the deck sluggish and inert. So, with 12, as opposed to 16, I can fit in 4 more cards that "do something."

That was the point I was making: where's the line? Why not 20 cantrips? 24? Because you're cutting away too much muscle and tissue.

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

"Or whatever?"

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That would be Predict.

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

Meddling Mage is a preemptive counterspell that gets answered by creature removal. I'd rather play Portent and find a Force or Counterspell.

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Meddling Mage is one of the best cards this deck plays. He's a clock, he can prevent multiple spells from being played, he's Chris Freaking Pikula. True, he can be answered with creature removal, but that's true of most creatures, and we still play them, right?

Importantly, he also lets you conserve your control cards so you can stop secondary threats.

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

The second-place deck (Krutil) only played 11 draw spells, but he eschewed Mental Note for three Predicts.

The third-place deck (Labarre) ran 14 draw spells, sporting 3 each of Mental Note and Predict.

I'm not sure you can make any definitive conclusions based off of those results. All 3 decks were considerably different than your list is now.

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For the record, I think Krutil's list is brilliant.

For reference:

UGW Threshold - 2nd place
Grand Prix: Lille
December 18, 2005

4 Brainstorm
4 Serum Visions
3 Predict
4 Force of Will
4 Daze
4 Swords to Plowshares
3 Worship

4 Nimble Mongoose
4 Werebear
4 Galina's Knight
2 Meddling Mage
2 Mystic Enforcer

4 Flooded Strand
3 Windswept Heath
4 Tropical Island
4 Tundra
1 Plains
1 Island
1 Forest

(sideboard)
3 Umezawa's Jitte
3 Pithing Needle
3 Stifle
2 Armageddon
2 Meddling Mage
2 Seal of Cleansing

And LaBarre was just hedging his bets (with the 3/3-split). :)

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

If you trust Summersberger's cantrip base and creature base, why aren't you running 4 colors? Do you think that Krutil's maindeck Worship or Labarre's Isochron Scepters could be optimal?

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I'm not running four colors, because I like the stability of my mana too much to sacrifice it for flexibility. Maindeck Worship is a brilliant idea, and I gave up maindeck Isochron Scepter long ago (you can see it in my first SCG article), but I never ran it in a deck that ran Fire/Ice. But the next time I sleeve up UGR Thresh, I'll test it and pray I don't run into anyone with Pithing Needle. :)

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Originally Posted by me

The deck is durable and flexible enough that variations, as long as they're well reasoned and tested, don't make for inferiority, necessarily. (emphasis added)

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely"

As a Gro proponent and player, I don't appreciate this attitude. Stating that the deck is good no matter how you build it is a good way to stifle innovation and development.

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You've obviously missed my point entirely. As I mentioned earlier, I'm not convinced that there is one objectively "best" and "correct" version of this deck--but that doesn't mean we shouldn't try to find it if one exists.

And we've both seen lists that are absolutely dreadful and need a lot of work. I wouldn't say all Gro decks are "good enough."

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Originally Posted by Evil Roopey

Me on the other hand play the deck very similar to the way I play Fish: Use my early game advantages to get into the midgame in a position that opponent will not be able to recover from. Now with that in mind, which of these plans is better?

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That's my plan as well: where you can, hit them early and hard, so you're in a better position when you reach the midgame and need your threats to connect half as many times as your opponents'.

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Originally Posted by Mad Zur

It is also relevant that two out of three Gro decks in the top eight at GP Philly had fifteen draw spells, including Predict but lacking Mental Note.

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I belive this is somewhat of a red herring. Mental Note was tech that came out of Lille. No one on these boards or TMD was talking about it seriously (or better yet, reporting results about it) in October.

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Originally Posted by MadZur

It is indeed relevant to point out that the deck has performed very well without Mental Note.

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This is true, but the deck ran quite well with Accumulated Knowledge too. I think it runs better now, since the deck has moved away from the 2cc drawers (well, mine and others, anyhow).

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Luckily, the overwhelming card quality advantage that comes from chaining draw manipulation spells into powerful threats and answers is enough to win most games on its own.

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So, you are saying that a card that costs twice as much as an alternative is better at doing this?

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Originally Posted by Bardo

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

This is an internet discussion forum that exists for the purpose of developing and tweaking decks to make them better. It invalidates our entire dialogue for you to elude debate because the deck is "strong enough."

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Well, I think you meant "evade" not "elude," but that's a technical point.

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Just another quick technical point, elude and evade are synonymous.

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Originally Posted by Bardo

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Originally Posted by Mad Zur

It is also relevant that two out of three Gro decks in the top eight at GP Philly had fifteen draw spells, including Predict but lacking Mental Note.

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I believe this is somewhat of a red herring. Mental Note was tech that came out of Lille. No one on these boards or TMD was talking about it seriously (or better yet, reporting results about it) in October.

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Actually, the discussion was about the performance of different builds of gro at the time he pointed that out, so it was anything but a red herring. Along with the rest of that post, it backs up the point that the tempo you gain from mental note isn't nearly as important as the card advantage or card quality you would gain from running portent or predict in most matchups.

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Originally Posted by Evil Roopey

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Originally Posted by Ob Freely

Luckily, the overwhelming card quality advantage that comes from chaining draw manipulation spells into powerful threats and answers is enough to win most games on its own.

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So, you are saying that a card that costs twice as much as an alternative is better at doing this?

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Drawing two cards certainly is.

Historically speaking, we can pretty easily conclude that 1 mana for a card becomes an increasingly better deal as we go up on the curve, up to some certain probably, judging by Flow of Ideas' lack of play, cutting off around 5; Reach Through Mists is unplayed competitively, whereas at sorcery speed, with a drawback, and in a probably worse color in most formats, Night's Whisper is fairly staple. Thirst for Knowledge and Compulsive research, which never even let you keep three cards, are even more played. While not completely parallel to Gro's deck strategy, in an overall view of magic history and theory, it's fair to say that 1 Mana/1 Card is trumped by 2 mana/2 cards pretty unanimously, so dismissive statements infering that only n00bs would sacrifice tempo for card advantage are, in this case, irrelevant. Then it becomes a question of; how hard is it to get tempo? And the answer is pretty clearly, in my opinion; not very.

Now let's compare Mental Note and Predict. I'll be reflecting it to Dredge a Tog, since they both seem to have the same roles and concepts.


Mental Note is an aggressive cantrip, while Predict is more defensive unless it's in Red Thresh.

Mental Note gets your guys to the point without much change in hand size, while Predict draws into the overall answers, burn, or threats.

Mental Note makes you go beatdown, while Predict supplies you with answers. I truely dont think these cantrips should be compared, as they both force you to play differently.

I've realized the Alix and Bardo have different views on the deck. That's fine.
Dan is more aggressive with Threshold (And you play Dredge a Tog Tsumara style, I mean you seems like you would play Nuijten's) as he wants Threshold so he can win and maintain the mommentum to find things, and Alix just wants to insure that he has absolute control over the game by find threats and answers to seal the game with even more mommentum (Your most likely to play Tsumara's).

So Bardo wants to win with the destination point, while Alix wants control follow up with a threat with some answers backed up.


Now Bardo has 12 cantrips while Alix has 16. Alix has less answers but a better mommentum to find them so he can maintain the consistentcy, while Bardo has Mages to slow the opponent down, and runs more win conditions, with Mental Notes to make them lethel.

I personally think that these cantrips change change the whole deck on it's own. I say we seperate the two lists and start a new thread. I mean do you see Uba Stax, Cron Stax, and 5c Stax all in the same thread? No, because all 3 play so differently. So Mental Note and Predicts should stay out, because they force the deck to function differently, and play differently.

and yeah... I'm to lazy to edit, so sorry for the extremely horrible grammer...

I'm all for it. Any time we can split up a Gro discussion even further, until the stupid archetype finally loses all momentum and dies, has my support.

I really think it comes down to how you play. One person may wants more control, while another person wants to go aggro sooner. Is one person right and the other wrong ??? NO. I really feel it comes down to what you are comfortable with. That's another reason why there are three different color splashes for this deck. In the end all forms of Gro have the same plan, control the game and then bash face with big uncost creatures. Same results different names. If one person doesn't like said card, then fine that's his/her opinion and you can argue about it and your not going change anybodies mind about it.

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Originally Posted by Brushwagg

I really think it comes down to how you play. One person may wants more control, while another person wants to go aggro sooner. Is one person right and the other wrong ??? NO. I really feel it comes down to what you are comfortable with. That's another reason why there are three different color splashes for this deck. In the end all forms of Gro have the same plan, control the game and then bash face with big uncost creatures. Same results different names. If one person doesn't like said card, then fine that's his/her opinion and you can argue about it and your not going change anybodies mind about it.

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The question is what is the best way for Gro decks to accomplish "controlling the game and then bash face with big uncost creatures". If the goal was to get to Threshold as soon as possible why not play Mental Note and Predict that would put the as many cards as possible in to the yard with the least amount of cost.

But card selection is very important thus the reason to play Brainstorm and Serum Visions. Portent and Predict are just a continuation of that strategy. Mental Note is not about card selection at all. It puts two random cards from the top of your library and 1 random card off the top into your hand (except for when you brainstorm). Mental Note does not seem to fit the strategy of the deck to use cantrips to gain virtual card advantage and build Threshold as consequence of using cantrips.

Mental Note is good... but it forces you to lose momentum, meaning it just get's to the point so you can get Threshold. Builds that usually run Mental Note have at least 12 to 14 creatures.

But Predict... I'm sorry, but Predict is a very interesting card. The card your most likely to pitch to this card means your thinning your deck, and drawing two cards. It has the functions of what a true aggro control deck wants; replacing/adding a threat to the table, and finding answers.


@Brushwagg: Thanks, I'm happy that somebody actually sorta understands what I was talking about.

@AnwarA101: Actually... I play Bardo's old list list with Sleight of Hands and Mental Notes... instead I takeout M. Note #4, and the two Sleight of Hands for 3 Predicts. Predict IMO can be a mini Mental Note, and can be set up if you want Card Advantage.

hi everybody
i am not used to play threshold (i played only about twenty games)
and i wanted to know if someone tryed seton's scout in the mental note version
1G
2/1
can block as thought as it has flying
threshold+2+2
the only problem i see is is 3 thoughness(lightning bolt target)
that makes him worse than werebear
but did someone tryied it or it is just crap?
thx

If your meta is flooded with fliers then go ahead and play scout. If not, then Werebear is the better choice. Playing both is an option, but Threshold simply doesn't need that many creatures.

I've tested Seton's Scout, but only as an addition to Werebear. His ability to block flyers almost never came into play. If you feel like you need another beatstick for some reason, he is a great choice after Nimble Mongoose & Werebear, but after testing him I just didn't find that another beater was needed. If I was going to up the creature count, I would prefer creatures that do something more than beat, like Meddling Make or Dark Confidant.

I have been keeping up to date with the Mental Note vs. Predict discussion here and I play tested a bunch today and yesterday to figure out which is actually better.

The jist of it is in the mirror match, predict is strictly better, it always came down to who got creatures out faster and in more numbers. You get into a position where both players are top decking and diggin once or twice each turn to find more threats. With mental note you have to wait till another visions or brainstorm to make sure you don't hit a creature. Every time I would hit a creature it pretty much meant game over. Not to mention most players after they serum or brainstorm will place a better card on top so to mill it away is nice.

On the other side of the fence, against gobbos I found that mental note was strictly better, they can keep you low on mana with ports/wastes. So the one casting cost really is a plus. The fact that you need to get threshold right away is huge. You can't afford to toss out wear bears without thresh, and at the same time you can't afford to hold them back in hand for a free piledriver swing.

It also depends who has more creatures in play, and who has more guys. In g2, if everybody sides in Crypt, the Predict version is absolutely fucked if they dont get that Needle/Crypt.

I personally think Predict is better in a metagames that dont have a lot of Threshold. As for metas with Threshold, Mental Note would be the way to go.

Like I said, theres truely no point in comparing the 3 Stax variants in Vintage, as they all have different functions for different metagames. Also, it's like comparing Magpie MUC with Spire Golem MUC, it all depends on the metagame.

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Originally Posted by BoardinCharlie

I have been keeping up to date with the Mental Note vs. Predict discussion here and I play tested a bunch today and yesterday to figure out which is actually better.

The jist of it is in the mirror match, predict is strictly better, it always came down to who got creatures out faster and in more numbers. You get into a position where both players are top decking and diggin once or twice each turn to find more threats. With mental note you have to wait till another visions or brainstorm to make sure you don't hit a creature. Every time I would hit a creature it pretty much meant game over. Not to mention most players after they serum or brainstorm will place a better card on top so to mill it away is nice.

On the other side of the fence, against gobbos I found that mental note was strictly better, they can keep you low on mana with ports/wastes. So the one casting cost really is a plus. The fact that you need to get threshold right away is huge. You can't afford to toss out wear bears without thresh, and at the same time you can't afford to hold them back in hand for a free piledriver swing.

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To be precise, your usage of the term "strictly better" is strictly incorrect. Something is strictly superior when there exist no instances where it is not better. For example, Lightning Bolt is strictly superior to Shock.

Now, having tested the Thresh mirror quite a bit myself, I can tell you that there are situations where Mental Note is a game-breaking play, and would, in fact, be a better play than Predict in the same situation. Therefore, neither is strictly better. Predict may theoretically be better more of the time (but even there I have my doubts), but not strictly so.

Just thought a clarification was in order.

I would like to ask a question here. What color splash has everyone been testing the Predict vs. Mental Note in? I play the Black version with Mental Note and I have been really happy with it. Of course I also play Dark Confidant, Night's Whisper, Brainstorm, and Serum Visions. So I really feel Predict is not needed because I already draw/see alot of cards.

I also like the quick boost Mental Note gives me. It has won me more then a few games.

However outside of the Black splash, I can see where Predict could be better, since there is no real card draw. I could be wrong, since I haven't played with White and only limited playing time with Red.