Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
It's probably not worse than Displacer, at the very least.
Tonight I had an interesting keep, wondering what people think of it.
Vs. Unknown deck. Friend who lately plays mostly Grixis Delver, sometimes Reanimator, MUD a while back, known for playing Stax (recently Eldrazi Stax) in Vintage.
I'm on the play. I mull one land hand to 6, he mulls too. My 6 is Vial Vial SFM Thalia Flickerwisp STP. I keep, scry non-land to the bottom, pass. He's playing Eldrazi and t1 Chalices me, game over. (I did draw a land t2.)
So is that keep greedy or actually a pretty rational decision? 42% of the rest of my deck is lands, I get a scry - so I have a high likelihood to have one on the top two. I also have 2 Vials, so if one is Forced, Dazed, whatever, I still can cast a backup. In the best case scenario I have double Vial going, which is super powerful with Imperial, which has a higher curve and can cheat on a ton of mana. I'm also on the play, so I'm not really falling behind by missing one land drop. Even if I play no lands for the first 2 turns I'm not totally out of the game.
The alternative is mull to 5. Mulling to 5 on the play gives you a good chance at having an unplayable hand, the chances of Vial + at least one land is down to something like 25%. Lots of potential garbage hands in a 5 (no lands, Bskull in hand, no white sources, double Thalia, etc) And even when you have a playable fair hand the card disadvantage comes to haunt you. Mulliganing is its own form of greediness.
So I *think* the keep was correct vs unknown opponent. It might even be correct vs Eldrazi, even with the risk of t1 Chalice, since if they don't have it double Vial gives you a lot of game, but I'm less sure there. This isn't the first 0 land Vial hand I've kept on the play thanks to the scry rule. G2/G3 or against any deck that maindecks Needle or Revoker that keep is probably too risky, but g1 on the play I think I like it even though I got super punished. It's also possible that this keep is more rational with Imperial than Mono-W, as Vial on 3 + drawing into Recruiter lets you do pretty powerful things, whereas Mono-W is a little less dependent on Vial and can attempt to grind out some fair game off 5 cards with Serra Avengers or whatever.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
hi guys!!
i m new with this deck!!
someone have already studied a list with new thalia,
i think is great card for this nice deck,
especially against lands and eldrazi,
also, i started play, but still not palyed against some match up,
how is match up against eldrazi, ?
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
@iatee
I'm going with "super greedy". Sure, we run a lot of lands, but we also mulligan very well (well, I haven't actually mulliganed as frequently with Imperial, but WW mulligans very well and not being willing to mulligan aggressively is a common mistake with DnT.)
Also, IMO the mulligan scry is never a good reason to keep a hand you wouldn't have kept before the scry rule. I always ask myself if I would keep it without the scry, and if I say no, I mulligan.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
That logic doesn't make any sense to me. The scry rule changes the game's statistics so drastically that pretending like it doesn't exist is just not playing optimally. Without the scry rule, the top card of my deck is 42% to be a land. So the majority of the times that keep would result in me being punished and the keep would be extremely loose. With the scry rule, I have something closer to a 70% chance at hitting a land. And Land Vial Vial Thalia STP SFM Flickerwisp would be a pretty decent keep if we just pretend I'm on the draw - plus my opponent mulliganned. So it's a 70% chance at a pretty solid double vial hand on the draw vs a 100% chance of having a 5 card hand on the play.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
Quote:
Originally Posted by
iatee
It's probably not worse than Displacer, at the very least.
Tonight I had an interesting keep, wondering what people think of it.
Vs. Unknown deck. Friend who lately plays mostly Grixis Delver, sometimes Reanimator, MUD a while back, known for playing Stax (recently Eldrazi Stax) in Vintage.
I'm on the play. I mull one land hand to 6, he mulls too. My 6 is Vial Vial SFM Thalia Flickerwisp STP. I keep, scry non-land to the bottom, pass. He's playing Eldrazi and t1 Chalices me, game over. (I did draw a land t2.)
So is that keep greedy or actually a pretty rational decision? 42% of the rest of my deck is lands, I get a scry - so I have a high likelihood to have one on the top two. I also have 2 Vials, so if one is Forced, Dazed, whatever, I still can cast a backup. In the best case scenario I have double Vial going, which is super powerful with Imperial, which has a higher curve and can cheat on a ton of mana. I'm also on the play, so I'm not really falling behind by missing one land drop. Even if I play no lands for the first 2 turns I'm not totally out of the game.
The alternative is mull to 5. Mulling to 5 on the play gives you a good chance at having an unplayable hand, the chances of Vial + at least one land is down to something like 25%. Lots of potential garbage hands in a 5 (no lands, Bskull in hand, no white sources, double Thalia, etc) And even when you have a playable fair hand the card disadvantage comes to haunt you. Mulliganing is its own form of greediness.
So I *think* the keep was correct vs unknown opponent. It might even be correct vs Eldrazi, even with the risk of t1 Chalice, since if they don't have it double Vial gives you a lot of game, but I'm less sure there. This isn't the first 0 land Vial hand I've kept on the play thanks to the scry rule. G2/G3 or against any deck that maindecks Needle or Revoker that keep is probably too risky, but g1 on the play I think I like it even though I got super punished. It's also possible that this keep is more rational with Imperial than Mono-W, as Vial on 3 + drawing into Recruiter lets you do pretty powerful things, whereas Mono-W is a little less dependent on Vial and can attempt to grind out some fair game off 5 cards with Serra Avengers or whatever.
Super greedy. Even if I was drunk I wouldn't keep that.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
Well, do you have any reasoning to back it up?
Anyway, that's the 3rd time I've kept a Vial mull with no land post-scry rule. In all cases it was on the play, I don't think you can ever do it on the draw.
First time - beat Eldrazi.
Second time - lost to Infect by a turn, but would have won easily if I drew a white source in my top 3. (Hand was something like 3 STP Vial, Fiend Hunter, something).
This time - punished by Chalice, would have been interesting to see how the game went otherwise.
In all cases my alternative was going to 4 or 5, where your general expected win percentage is already down to like 20/25%. Even though it seems like a cowboy move, the cost of taking this risk is actually not that high.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
Quote:
Originally Posted by
iatee
That logic doesn't make any sense to me. The scry rule changes the game's statistics so drastically that pretending like it doesn't exist is just not playing optimally. Without the scry rule, the top card of my deck is 42% to be a land. So the majority of the times that keep would result in me being punished and the keep would be extremely loose. With the scry rule, I have something closer to a 70% chance at hitting a land. And Land Vial Vial Thalia STP SFM Flickerwisp would be a pretty decent keep if we just pretend I'm on the draw - plus my opponent mulliganned. So it's a 70% chance at a pretty solid double vial hand on the draw vs a 100% chance of having a 5 card hand on the play.
/shrug. You asked a question, people answered. I agree with their take. I wouldn't keep a 0-land 6-card hand either, even if it had three 1-drops. FWIW you have a 92% chance of opening on at least 1 land out of 23 if you mull twice.
People have different takes on risk, and what they like to get out of a game. If you had ripped a land, you might well have gone on to win that game, and had a cool story to tell. That's not my style, so I wouldn't do it, but I'm not bothered if you'd do it the same way again.
You asked, we answered. Our answers don't have to agree. :cool:
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
I mean I just don't think "I always ask myself if I would keep it without the scry, and if I say no, I mulligan." is a particularly rational decision for someone looking to maximize the number of games they win.
While you do have a pretty high likelihood of hitting at least one land on a mull to 5, you only have a 25% shot of hitting a land + Vial, which is really the only powerful mull to 5 and even then you've given up some of the advantage of Vial because your hand is pretty empty.
I know we don't have to agree, and maybe there is some amount of risk profile here, but I'm genuinely not even sure what I'm doing is more risky than what you're doing if you tally everything up.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
After talking about this with some friends I realized I was wrong about the 'worse on the draw' aspect of this for a few reasons:
1. For some reason I was visualizing them hitting two land drops before you hit one if you do this on the draw, but that's just not true. You're (70% of the time) drawing and playing a land at normal tempo if you do this on the draw
2. One thing you're doing when you do this on the play is giving up 'the play' which is almost painfully valuable in legacy and in some matchups (e.g. Storm) worth more than a card.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
I don't think I would ever keep a 0 land 6 card hand with taxes. My reasoning is
1. I want to get vial down asap, our deck operates much better the earlier we get vials online.
2. I want land as well. In my experience with death and taxes I have found many times that not having the correct amount of land to play threats, cast non creature spells like swords through a thalia or suit up with equipment then my deck is running slow and I'm only making things worse by giving my opponent time.
3. Top deck non basic into vial can easily lead to daze your first vial into wasteland your land, then you are back to square 1 minus 2 cards. Even if you top deck a basic and your opponent is in fact on a delver variant they could potentially turn 1 delver, daze your vial, turn 2 flip delver with force/pierce/daze back up for your second vial if you are still stuck on land, then you are really behind and climbing back is a concern.
4. This last one kind of shoots any reasoning you might have had in keeping that hand since you know your opponent. If I am against a known prison player he is very likely going to turn 1 a chalice at 1 or Trinisphere which locks you our for at least 2 if not 3 more turns. The more time you give those decks to set up, the worse things can get for you. In my experience against stompy or stax variants, they usually will keep a hand that either puts a chalice at 1 turn 1, or a Trinisphere by turn 2. The fact that you know your opponent favors those kind of decks is an even worse reason to ever keep a hand like that. The fact that you are on the play and guaranteed to not draw a land for turn 1 makes it even worse for you.
On a side note:
I keep a lot of really appealing 1 land hands and get punished regularly whether I play 23, 24 or even 29 lands when I'm on post. Playing the odds like that will get you countless game losses that are unnecessary in a deck that, as redtwister stated, mulligans very well.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mykatdied
I don't think I would ever keep a 0 land 6 card hand with taxes. My reasoning is
1. I want to get vial down asap, our deck operates much better the earlier we get vials online.
That's my logic too, which is why I think a 70% chance at a t2 Vial is better than a 25% chance of a t1 Vial. (And If this keep were on the draw it would be a 70% chance at a t1 Vial.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mykatdied
2. I want land as well. In my experience with death and taxes I have found many times that not having the correct amount of land to play threats, cast non creature spells like swords through a thalia or suit up with equipment then my deck is running slow and I'm only making things worse by giving my opponent time.
Sure, lands are good, everyone likes lands, but card advantage is also relevant in legacy, and we don't have many ways to make up for starting a game with 2/3 fewer cards. (Imperial has far more, but also is more punished for being land light.)
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mykatdied
3. Top deck non basic into vial can easily lead to daze your first vial into wasteland your land, then you are back to square 1 minus 2 cards. Even if you top deck a basic and your opponent is in fact on a delver variant they could potentially turn 1 delver, daze your vial, turn 2 flip delver with force/pierce/daze back up for your second vial if you are still stuck on land, then you are really behind and climbing back is a concern.
This is a risk for sure (and I was even guessing he was playing Delver) but mulliganing to 5 is also a risk. If the numbers I've seen from other formats are anything to go by, your EW % is already down to something like 20-25% when you go to 5 on the play. It's not that you *can't* win off 5s and have great hands, but you're not throwing away some huge chance at winning when you keep these bet-the-house-on-Vial hands. That's my key point - I don't think I'm favored to win the game when I keep this hand, but I also don't think I'm favored to win the game with an average mull to 5. Both cases involve getting lucky, the question is which one involves more luck.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mykatdied
4. This last one kind of shoots any reasoning you might have had in keeping that hand since you know your opponent. If I am against a known prison player he is very likely going to turn 1 a chalice at 1 or Trinisphere which locks you our for at least 2 if not 3 more turns. The more time you give those decks to set up, the worse things can get for you. In my experience against stompy or stax variants, they usually will keep a hand that either puts a chalice at 1 turn 1, or a Trinisphere by turn 2. The fact that you know your opponent favors those kind of decks is an even worse reason to ever keep a hand like that. The fact that you are on the play and guaranteed to not draw a land for turn 1 makes it even worse for you.
Hadn't seen him on MUD in legacy forever. But he knew he was playing against DnT, and I don't think Chalice style decks can keep hands against DnT on the draw simply because they have an early prison piece (since those hands just lose to T1 Aether Vial). Were I to mull to 5 against what my opponent did end up playing (Eldrazi, t1 Chalice) about 1/4 of my deck contained 'bad cards' (Thalia, Mom, STP, any copy of Vial after t1) and he had a TKS in hand in case I did have anything relevant. I was losing that game, absent some ridiculous draw.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mykatdied
On a side note:
I keep a lot of really appealing 1 land hands and get punished regularly whether I play 23, 24 or even 29 lands when I'm on post. Playing the odds like that will get you countless game losses that are unnecessary in a deck that, as redtwister stated, mulligans very well.
Post revolves around its lands, DnT revolves around Aether Vial. I also don't agree that the deck mulligans well, at least not relative to other T1 legacy decks, most of which have cantrips to clean up their hand or sol lands that easily make up for the card disadvantage. It mulligans well if you hit an Aether Vial (which is similar to Sol lands in providing virtual card advantage with extra mana) but Wastelands/Ports are only strong when you're ahead or at par on resources.
I think ultimately this decision is close and if I'm wrong I'm not wrong by a lot, and if I'm right I'm not right by a lot. But it is a strategy I think people should at least think about, and only because of the new mulligan rule.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
I only referenced 12 post on 29 lands. I sometimes run dnt with 23 or 24 if I am using a similar mana base to a user on mtgsal that has a 24 lands version with dust bowl and flagstones. On more lands I sometimes get hurt on 1 land vial hands when I either can't resolve a vial and don't draw another land or I do resolve vial but don't have the mana to actually cast any non creature spell. Death and taxes is definitely a vial deck, but we're much better when we have land to do other things whether it be port down an opponent stuck on 2 lands while we have thalia in play, be able to run out wasteland and punish out opponent. I don't think you can take 3 good 0 land keeps where you got lucky and use that as the rule. If that is how you want to look at it, I can't fault you for that. It's worked for you, so you are going to do it. Maybe in your local LGS it pays off and your opponent can't punish you for it. At higher level legacy if you make a habit of those keeps you will get punished regularly. It will be the difference between cashing out and missing out.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
Actually my local game store is more competitive than most rounds at Opens/GPs, e.g. the player I lost to is an ex-Eternal Weekend Legacy champ. In any case, I've won countless games off 1 land Vial hands at competitive REL. The fact that sometimes it doesn't work out doesn't mean that it's wrong to often keep a high-risk high-reward hand. Sometimes mulliganing doesn't work out, that doesn't mean it's wrong ever mulligan.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
@iatee
A 1 land hand with Vial is a completely different animal from 0 lands with 2 Vial. I agree with you on 1 Land (especially a Plains) and a Vial being a viable keep, especially if your spells are good.
I think you overlook that even though we do not have a source of CA and deck manipulation beyond SfM, the redundancy of DnT makes it a very consistent deck in mulligans. And your build actually has more manipulation thanks to Recruiter, while having a weaker mana base, so that alone makes me doubtful vis-a-vis 0 land hands.
"Without the scry rule, the top card of my deck is 42% to be a land. So the majority of the times that keep would result in me being punished and the keep would be extremely loose. With the scry rule, I have something closer to a 70% chance at hitting a land. And Land Vial Vial Thalia STP SFM Flickerwisp would be a pretty decent keep if we just pretend I'm on the draw - plus my opponent mulliganned. So it's a 70% chance at a pretty solid double vial hand on the draw vs a 100% chance of having a 5 card hand on the play."
You do have a 68% chance of hitting some land with the scry rule, but you only have a 35% chance of hitting a land that produces white mana, but a much worse chance of hitting one of your 3 Plains (including your 5 fetches, around 25%), which is your most best land because it cannot be hit by Wasteland.
Also, important to a mulligan is whether or not you asked yourself what your chance of winning the game was if you missed? And if you missed twice? The chance of hitting a land by itself is not sufficient. You have to consider what happens if you don't hit a land, or if you hit a land and it is destroyed.
Summing up, I agree that the scry rule, especially for lands, is a significant change in the game, but it does not magically make a very greedy keep good and a hand with 0 land and 2 Vial is very greedy because it has to 1) hit a land drop in your first two draw steps (68%) or lose, and 2) preferably hit a land drop that can cast StP (35%) not susceptible to Wasteland (25%), 3) not face Chalice on 1 turn 1 or some other disruption. Especially given your knowledge of the player in front of you, while I agree that your basic % chance of hitting a land is significantly better with the scry rule than without it, the chances are still not great and the chance of hitting a Plains make it look much worse, alongside the fact that the second Vial is likely simply redundant, and without a Plains you can't cast StP at all. Chalice on 1 simply shut the door.
Therefore, for me, the 0 land hand is a riskier keep than the mulligan to 5 with a scry because I am not just calculating the chance of hitting a land in the first two turns, but also how bad my chance of winning at all becomes each turn I miss a land drop.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
See, I think the fact that you think the second Vial is redundant is where we differ - I see it as the huge upside in the scenario, Vial into Vial means I can possibly win the game without even needing a second land or casting a spell not called Aether Vial. Again, this argument might ultimately be due to how differently Imperial plays, as once you have Vial on 3 + Vial on 2 the deck is going to either a. quickly draw into some very powerful things b. draw into lands, which are fine too.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
I have been doing some thinking about the Wr version of this deck. Waaay back when I was first trying to figure out what a deck featuring Mangara and Aether Vial would look like, I had a more controllish version as my start point. It was Wu, and I messed with it for about two weeks before swapping in a bunch of creatures and staying just in white. The point is that I used Sensei's Divining Top because it was so important for the role of control. Well, Wr seems to play a similar role. You get one activation - or possibly two with a fetchland - before turn 3 to help you land your best creature on that turn. This was my thinking back then, and it appears relevant with the toolbox here. I copied this from the OP and made some guesses to accommodate this plan. Tell me what you think.
2 Cavern of Souls
4 Flooded Strand
3 Karakas
2 Plains
2 Plateau
4 Rishadan Port
4 Wasteland
2 Windswept Heath
3 Flickerwisp
3 Imperial Recruiter
1 Kor Skyfisher
3 Magus of the Moon
1 Mangara of Corondor
1 Mirran Crusader
3 Mother of Runes
2 Phyrexian Revoker
1 Pia and Kiran Nalaar
3 Stoneforge Mystic
3 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Swords to Plowshares
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Umezawa's Jitte
3 Sensei's Divining Top
4 Ęther Vial
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
It's an interesting idea, I might try it. Top is a non-Mom one drop, so it does help justify -1 Moms. That build has a 74% chance at having a T1 play on 7 cards, vs normal DnT's 65%.
I feel like 3 is probably too many, maybe 2 is safer. We do have a *lot* of shuffle effects though. Fetches obviously, but also SfM, Recruiters and Flicker effects - counting everything we actually have more than most blue decks. Recruiter for Recruiter gives you as many as you want. There are probably some interesting tricks with Top too, the obvious one is activate to draw a card, Vial-Flickerwisp or Skyfisher the Top for a free card.
I have noticed myself siding out Thalias more and more with Wr, mostly because I expect the games to go long and want to limit my x/1 exposure. So I don't think that 3 Thalias is heresy, especially with Eldrazi pushing a lot of Storm out of the meta. Still, going down to only 5 relevant t2 hatebears vs combo seems like you're giving up a lot g1. Recruiters help, but generally only if you have a Vial (t1 Vial, t2 Port, t3 Recruiter -> Thalia).
One awkward thing about playing Tops is that it means you can't name them with Revoker, which makes the Miracles matchup a little worse. But the Miracles matchup is already insanely good, especially with Pia/Kiran main. This build seems very powerful against midrange decks but soft to aggro and fast combo. Unlike Miracles we don't have a reset button vs aggro, so I think you need to still play Batterskull to make up for it.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
@Finn
Tomorrow I'm testing all day with my usual group so I'll sleeve this up and see what we can do. This looks like a fun list to try out.
I also wonder if the new Thalia can be tested in this list as well. She's not a recruiter target, but utilizing Top might help manage that as we can draw and vial her in when needed. Like in response to something like a reality smasher. Maybe 2 copies?
Finally the current meta is chalice heavy, so adding three more one drops might be rough.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
Frankly, from merely pondering the list Finn posted, I don't really see this happening/working out (haven't tested it though, and I'll let empiricism happily trump my musings ;)).
First, where's all the mana for Top going to be coming from? Then there's only six sources of shuffle effects that do not require a mana investment of any kind. The six additional shuffles require either Aether Vial to be active, or cost 2 or 3 mana. That's just vastly inferior compared to 4 Ponder plus 10 Fetchlands, and weakens the effectiveness of Top a lot, I'm afraid. Furthermore, the usual suspects for running Top use it to smooth their draws in a way that provides them with their game-breaking bombs at the precise moment they require them - Terminus against a problematic board state, Jace to inevitably close out the game after a sweeper, Mentor to go for a wide kill fast, Entreat to smash the opponent to pieces out of nowhere, etc. - I'd argue that D&T's reliance on incremental advantage and Lingchi-like nature of it bringing the opponent down make it work fundamentally different enough that Top can't pull its weight for us enough: You're not going to find that bomb, because it just isn't there. And playing the draw-landdrop-top-go-game is something we can't afford to play, since scultping our hand isn't as important as is establishing a (taxing) board presence.
I've picked up Imperial Taxes a few weeks ago, and I'd say that I have extensive experience with the mono-W version (also some with the Wg and a little with the Wb variant), whis is why I think that I'm well aware of the relative weaknesses and strenghts of the archetype's different flavours. My impression, from having played some 30 to 40 games with the R splash, is that Recruiter (esp. combined with Flickerwisp and Kor Skyfisher) alone already solves many of the problems that Top could help alleviate: That you end up stranded in the late game without relevant threats, relying on your (blind) draw step to hopefully turn the tide. I don't remember having been in this situation any more since starting to run Imperial, while it's somewhat common to happen when playing mono-W.
Re: [DTB] Death and Taxes
Just spotted this deck from MTGO:
- Eldrazi Temple takes the place of Rishadan Port. Your thoughts on this direction? TKS and Displacer are so strong.
- Is there a chance this is a budget choice due to the price of Ports on MTGO?
- I LOVE Gideon, Ally of Zendikar in here. Anyone else?
- Does this build have merit as a reasonable candidate to test?
CLYDE THE GLIDE DREXLER (5-0)
Creatures (26)
4 Mother of Runes
3 Phyrexian Revoker
4 Stoneforge Mystic
4 Thalia, Guardian of Thraben
4 Eldrazi Displacer
4 Flickerwisp
3 Thought-Knot Seer
Spells (11)
4 Aether Vial
4 Swords to Plowshares
1 Umezawa's Jitte
1 Sword of Fire and Ice
1 Batterskull
Lands (23)
1 Cavern of Souls
4 Eldrazi Temple
1 Horizon Canopy
3 Karakas
1 Mishra's Factory
9 Plains
4 Wasteland
Sideboard (15)
2 Path to Exile
2 Pithing Needle
1 Containment Priest
3 Ethersworn Canonist
3 Rest in Peace
2 Council's Judgment
2 Gideon, Ally of Zendikar
