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Math guys / SE guys:
Can anyone provide a quick number crunch on how many creatures or pseudocreatures (lingering souls, combat walkers, fetchlands with dryad arbor) you would want to run in order to justify 2 Diabolic Intents, such that they are live ~90% of the time before turn 5 or so?
I think it's going to end up somewhere around 24ish, but I'd like some actual number crunching to back up my assumption.
If it's too complex of a question, by all means ignore me! Just figured I'd ask.
Thank you! :)Quote:
Originally Posted by Scott
The same is for me, I really love this deck!
I did not really miss top. In fact, Top resulted to be necessary in long, grindy matches. But when the game is against burn, delver or a combo decks, you just want to play hatebears/lifegain/discard/removals and so on as soon as possible.
The deck has a nice topdeck by itself, many ways to generate card advantage and nasty fatties, hard to deal with. I'd say that the deck can live pretty well without SDT. The ScapeWish version will feel the loss more than any other Nic Fit variant, I think.
How do you feel about the card choices maindeck? Which cards standed out, positive or negative?Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivan-784
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It gets a little complicated, because of how often creatures die off, and some cards provide more than one creature. For example, in order to have a creature to hit with on Intent Lingering Souls is only good as a single card but for the purposes of having targets is as good as having 4 others in the deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arianrhod
The way I would approach the question is how many creatures do you want total at that point? The way we figured creature numbers for SE is what you would need to have in order to have something after the opponent was run out of removal (and without Miracles around anymore this number is probably going to go down).
If you're thinking about it that way, it likely means you need one more creature than the opponent has removal. That's not something that can be easily answered right now, since the meta is in too much flux. I would say 8 fetches, an Arbor, and 7+ sac creatures is what you want.
Edit: The problem I've always found with Intent (and Therapy runs into this too, to an extent) is sacrificing a creature in a deck that wants good board presence can be really problematic. You can only afford a few slots to fodder cards. I think Lingering Souls is a good way around that issue, and other token cards are too, but those end up making GSZ a lot worse. I guess where I'm going with this is, what are you usually getting with Intent? Depending on the answer, there may be some better tutors.
I came to the same realization with Top which is why I had started to cut them. Early Tops just use too many resources, which slows you down significantly. They worked better as a mid-late game card.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivan-784
Edit: Forgot to ask about the Wood Elves, was that just a card availability issue? Nissa should be better in any circumstance (especially since you don't have Vastwood Seers).
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Edit 2: Horizon Canopy is out of my SFM list again. Was goldfishing a few games, I never wanted to blow it up and it was costing me much more life than Bob ever does. That slot is becoming the 8th fetch again.
I did not feel bad about any of the cards. I just did not see Wood Elves and Grave Titan and could not evaluate them. Grave Titan has proved many times to be more than worthy in the past, btw.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobmans
Top cards?
Gaddock maindeck: gave a total boost against S&T. A must: he can win alone G1 vs ANT and can slow down other combos. If you don’t need it, you don’t simply play it and side it out in g2.
Dragonlord Dromoka: If deployed, wins alone vs delver decks.
Sigarda: she is the true queen of the deck. Nothing to say here.
Primeval Titan: almost never sided him out (maybe once vs burn). He rules even in a non-scapewish environment. A total blast vs S&T. Even if he dies as he enters, you can play it again with the 2 towers.
Recurring Nightmare: really strong, especially vs unfair decks which don’t side in grave hate. I made a nice trick with Primeval Titan, Recurring Nightmare and Ashen Rider vs S&T ;)
I chose the Wood Elves because of my mana curve and the good sinergy with cabal/phyrexian tower/diabolic intent: with 3 six mana fatties I wanted to ramp fast.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brael
I did not consider Nissa. Not because she’s not powerful, but because I did not think about her. :)
She could be a nice add to the deck, even if she forces you to play in a bit different way. Let’s talk a bit about pros and cons:
Wood elves:
+ Better when you want to ramp.
+ May get bayou or savannah, and fix your mana
- Smaller body
- Little or no influence in lategame
Nissa:
+ Really powerful lategame: can give great card advantage and may win the game alone.
+ Bigger body
+ Potential threat: with vets in the deck she may flip fast. Opponent could choose to use a removal on her, opening the road for our fatties
+ Better sinergy with Tracker than the elf
- Less useful if you want to ramp fast
- she forces you to leave at least 1 basic forest in the deck if you want to use her ability, so you have to be more careful with fetches and veterans
- only basic forests, so no mana fix.
I think I’ll give her a chance, since as I said before, I played the whole day without Wood Elves and never GSZ'd for them.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivan-784
Currently i am toying around with Renegade Rallier in this slot. I have always like Nissa, Vastwood Seer. When played at correct it generates so much value. It is only that i find it a bit awkward with Nissa, Vital Force which has become an auto include in every build i play.
Rallier can also fix mana, although it is slightly more conditional. You need to crack a fetch, sac a creature or something must die in combat, etc. But it can potentially generate some other value like returning QPM or Sylvan Library. Next to Recurring Nightmare or the Two Towers it can also get pretty nasty real quickly. I have always seen it as a lesser version of Eternal Witness, but it has a different and interesting angle on itself. It is a pity that there aren't more targets for it in NicFit in general. Perhaps that a SFM version has most ways to exploit the card.
I was going to play it over Eternal Witness in my recent SFM build, but instead I cut the slot entirely.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobmans
I had been thinking about Nissa Vital Force for a while. She seems really powerful against control decks, but a bit weak against aggro. She puts a fast clock against combo decks too, but it's the same for any of our fat guys. I'm not 100% on it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobmans
On renegade rallier: he is quite powerful, but i see it fitting better in "lighter" decks, with strong 2 mana drops. Also, he is totally on graveyard stuff. I tend to balance things to avoid being screw'd off by grave hate. That's why I like to play Steve and Wood Elves in addition to Veteran Explorers.
The way control decks usually beat us is with jace, and since nissa is great against jace I think it is worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivan-784
Hello, I'd been collecting fetches for Modern when I thought I'd pop over to Legacy and build a deck for this format, which is where I came to Nic Fit. Below is my current decklist. Of note is I don't have all the necessary dual lands, and I think I might have too much sideboard for Sneak and Show style decks (with 3 Path + Kaya main, 1 Edict, 1 To the Slaughter and 1 Ashen Rider sideboard)
Creatures (15)
4x Veteran Explorer
2x Deathrite Shaman
1x Sakura-Tribe Elder
2x Tireless Tracker
1x Eternal Witness
2x Siege Rhino
1x Meren of Clan Nel Toth
1x Thragtusk
1x Sigarda, Host of Herons
Planeswalkers (4)
2x Nissa, Vital Force
1x Liliana, Death's Majesty
1x Kaya, Ghost Assassin
Enchantments (3)
3x Pernicious Deed
Sorceries (10)
4x Cabal Therapy
4x Green Sun's Zenith
1x Maelstrom Pulse
1x Vindicate
Instants (5)
2x Abrupt Decay
3x Path to Exile
Lands (23)
4x Windswept Heath
4x Verdant Catacombs
2x Overgrown Tomb
1x Savannah
1x Godless Shrine
4x Forest
3x Swamp
2x Plains
1x Volrath's Stronghold
2x Phyrexian Tower
Sideboard (14)
4 Lost Legacy
1x Gaddock Teeg
1x Golgari Charm
1x Ashen Rider
1x Diabolic Edict
1x To the Slaughter
1x Maelstrom Pulse
1x Painful Truths
1x Reclamation Sage
1x Scavening Ooze
1x Thrun, the Last Troll
One question that has been on my mind as I've read through the whole of this forum: where is Liliana, the Last Hope? I say this because her +1 beats lots of early game threats (most notably unflipped Delvers and Young Pyromancer) and it triggers Veteran Explorer at not too late a stage in the game; Pernicious Deed will kill Vet on turn 4, and Liliana of the Veil's -2 is not what you want to be doing to trigger Explorer! She can also flat out win the game by herself with her ult, but if she has been unthreatened for 4+ turns you've probably won anyway.
Any thoughts on Liliana, Death's Majesty would also be appreciated; this list is theory at the moment, slanted towards beating "unfair" decks (e.g. Sneak and Show), and so I haven't yet acquired all the pieces of the deck.
Liliana the Last Hope isn't good enough, I gave her a pretty solid try. There's not enough targets for her +1 to kill, I never wanted to use the minus, and the ultimate wasn't good enough. Garruk Relentless is a stronger PW for what Nic Fit is doing. You don't want to run Liliana of the Veil either, because the +1 is really bad for you.Quote:
Originally Posted by Uyan
Death's Majesty isn't that great either. For the minus to be any good, you need a threat that was already dealt with, and the plus is way too slow. Compare to Nissa. Nissa gets in for 10 damage in the time Liliana gets in for 2.
The best way to beat unfair decks, is to lower your curve and win faster.
4 Veteran Explorer
1 Deathrite Shaman
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Eternal Witness
1 Fierce Empath
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Meren of Clan Nel Toth
1 Thragtusk
1 Inferno Titan
1 Woodland Bellower
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Green Sun's Zenith
1 Maelstrom Pulse
1 Toxic Deluge
3 Night's Whisper
2 Diabolic Intent
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Pernicious Deed
4 Sneak Attack
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Dryad Arbor
3 Bayou
2 Taiga
2 Badlands
3 Forest
2 Swamp
2 Mountain
1 Volrath's Stronghold
1 Phyrexian Tower
sb::
1 Reclamation Sage
2 Lost Legacy
1 To the Slaughter
2 Blood Moon
1 Toxic Deluge
2 Engineered Plague
2 Fatal Push
1 Abrupt Decay
2 Surgical Extraction
1 Chalice of the Void
Running this at my local tomorrow. Sam Higgins is also running a very, very similar list (just a couple of slight sideboard differences) at his local tomorrow night and again Tuesday night, so hopefully that'll give us some actual data.
@Brael has most of this. I'll raise some ideas that possibly justify running that many intents.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arianrhod
Lingering Souls is more than 1 "creature". If you can either flash it back or keep the tokens alive somehow, the odds of intent being a dud decrease. I cannot do the math because it's conditional at best.
Anything with persist also works in your favor. Redcap, Finks, the green Geist dude = additional "creatures" to sac towards intent. The math is difficult to compute again because of persist. I'm not even sure how you'd track that.
I think Brael or someone did the math on Arbor a while back. You'd have to count the number of fetches, green sun's, forest-diggers (wood elves & co.) to generate loose odds. If you go with Arbor as a sac outlet, you might want to copy elves.dec in running a pair. That will likely strain the manabase. I'm sure you're intent-ing into something very important though.
Overall I am not particularly sold on Intent. I think it's really bad in a speedy counter-heavy meta. There's too much room to be X-for-1'ed. Or to have the intent target never enter play (discard or countered).
In Jund P.Fire is The Veil soild. Discard P.Fire and then return it. It's a bit worse now after the Top banning.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brael
I beg to differ. Both as an Elves! pilot and long time Intent enthousiast. Just the 1 Arbor is fine. The thing with Intent is that you have to be very careful with it (i.e. only cast it when you know the road is clear). Just keep that in mind and you'll be fine. The card can turn games around completely when timed correctly.Quote:
Originally Posted by Warden
I think you still have to count cards like Lingering Souls as one card. This is because you'd have to make the innitial draw of those cards. Actually drawing the cards should be the only factor slash variable and not how many bodies or recasts they leave behind.Quote:
Originally Posted by Warden
Good luck. Not sure if i would bring 2 Intents and Stronghold without Primeval Titan. The Wurmcoil Engine should be awesome, I hope.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arianrhod
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I love the idea of Crop Rotations, but apart from Bojuka Bog I don't own any worthy CR targets. And then there's the ever present question of in what available space to put them.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brael
:-( true, i have been pondering on the PFire list, but it feels that the grind has been taken out of the grind. Currently i have been looking at a slightly different approach that is a bit more lands heavy.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganfar
Not all really new elements, rather just a mash-up from what was already there. Mostly i was looking for that synergy between Meren/Arbor/Tracker/Courser/Titania coupled with some ways to finish that game.
All in all i believe PFire lists NEED Liliana of the Veil to add some missing reach. Heres the list for reference (no board, since that's always fluid).
Also in here i was looking for Crop Rotation, but i couldn't find any more room...
1x Dryad Arbor
4x Veteran Explorer
1x Deathrite Shaman
1x Scavenging Ooze
1x Eternal Witness
1x Tireless Tracker
1x Courser of Kruphix
1x Meren of Clan Nel Toth
1x Huntmaster of the Fells
1x Thrun, the Last Troll
1x Thragtusk
1x Titania, Protector of Argoth
1x Primeval Titan
4x Green Sun's Zenith
2x Sylvan Library
4x Cabal Therapy
3x Pernicious Deed
2x Abrupt Decay
3x Punishing Fire
3x Liliana of the Veil
1x Nissa, Vital Force
4x Verdant Catacombs
2x Wooded Foothills
1x Bloodstained Mire
3x Forest
2x Swamp
1x Mountain
2x Bayou
1x Taiga
1x Badlands
3x Grove of the Burnwillows
1x Volrath's Stronghold
1x Phyrexian Tower
1x Kessig Wolf Run
So I'd treat it like force of will. Obviously the more the better, but generally I think as low as 14 is "doable", while 17+ starts becoming reliable, and 21+ starts seeing significant diminishing returns, but who cares because you'll basically always have a target.Quote:
Originally Posted by Arianrhod
It's not quite the same since Force says "in my hand right now T1" but that's more restrictive than "on the battlefield at any point in the game while I have this in my hand and the mana to cast it."
It's not a bad way to sac him, though I believe Crop Rotation/PTower is the best sac'er (5 mana T2.) While Therapy is reasonable, it is a full turn slower. Intent is even more in that direction giving you a mere 2 mana open from Explorer. While you can enjoy T3's mana like anyone else, a T2 Sneakattack, or Sigarda, or GSZ x=4, etc will probably feel better
EDIT: Has anyone tried Infernal Plunge? That fills all the requirements for the sac card, while getting you to 6 mana T2. That happens to be the magic number for Titans and other goodies. The SneakAttack version could hit for lethal T2 with that mana as well.
Culling the Weak is where you want to be for that sort of thing. It's not particularly good, though:Quote:
Originally Posted by tescrin
- Awful topdeck
- Need both Plunge and Explorer in opener - Zenithing Explorer still puts us a turn behind, at which point it's hardly better than Therapy
- Need big payoff card in hand - three card combo is not easy to assemble (4 if we're going for Sneak - Fatty), especially without filtering
- Doesn't actually win us the game
- Phyrexian Tower does similar thing, repeatably, in a land slot
- Always a 2 for 0, if we use it to ritual out a threat and it gets Forced the opponent is still up in cards.
Ah Culling! I thought I remembered a card like that but didn't have time to look it up.Quote:
Originally Posted by Navsi
These are all excellent points. Crop Rotation can enable anti-combo interaction, protect your manabase, and still get you to 5 mana, etc. and natural Tower is quite nice, while the cards that require you to sac to be effective have only a single use.
Thanks!
You don't? Phyrexian Tower is a pretty damn good CR target (probably the best one). Stronghold is good too. That's the great thing about CR, you don't need to go out of your way for it. Bog and the Two Towers are already enough on their own.Quote:
Originally Posted by Echelon
I have tried to play with Titania, Protector of Argoth in P.F Jund before. The biggest issue is that you have to little fetchlands. It was often Tiania comes in to play with no lands in the graveyard. Then I have a 5/3 for 5 vanlia. That was baaad. The list I played had 4 Grove of the Burnwillows and less fetchlands so it maybe can work.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bobmans
I think Meren of Clan Nel Totn and Thrun, the Last Troll is better now when Terminus is gone. If BUG becomes pouplar then Meren of Clan Nel Totn will be really good. Thrun smash Delver decks with counter spells.
3 unitly lands is one too much. Either have Kessig Wolf Run or Volrath's Stronghold. I have been more impress with Kessig when I have play with it. Veteran Explorer becomes a threat with Wolf run!
I want one more Tracker and Huntmaster in main.
Other then that I like the list :)
Without Terminus to deal with, I think Nissa, Vital Force gets a lot worse. I actually don't like her against combo because most combo decks have a bunch of basic lands, so I would rather not pop an Explorer against them, which means you can't cast Nissa in a timely fashion. She's great against control, but until a new control deck surfaces, I'm not really convinced she's needed. That was a big factor in my deciding to try out a SFM build right now.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ivan-784
Is there a reason why BUG lists don't seem to run Leovold? :confused:
At the very least, he seems like a great GSZ target.
I checked back a few pages since I know at least I posted one. There are lists in posts 1155 and 1178 including Leovold.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barook
I'm at 3 Trackers, 1 Leovold in my list. Leovold currently hasn't shined that much, but I'm only in my 2nd or so league with him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Barook
Card is pretty expensive right now, might be a reason people are reluctant to try him.
I think there's a few reasons:Quote:
Originally Posted by Barook
1. Leovold is kind of pricey right now, I know that's my reason for not picking him up.
2. The lands to run him are pretty pricey too. I've got a barebones set of duals for this right now, but many don't.
3. We don't actually need him. In a go big style build I like him, as a way to protect 4+ drops. But a lot of BUG lists have been following the SE approach of smaller curves, in which case Trackers just generate more value as your 3 drop. No one has managed to crack the blue puzzle yet. I think a lot of this has to do with FoW. Without FoW, the power of blue drops significantly. But Nic Fit already has Therapy+GSZ taking up all the spell slots that FoW could have. So even when going blue, you miss the most important part of the card. Then the rest of the blue plan has issues. Cantrips lower the lands in the deck, and for a deck that wants a lot of lands to Crop Rotation for, this actually hurts us.
I know I'm pretty negative on BUG in general (though I really do want to make it work), but the fundamental things blue do, seem to clash a lot.
Any thoughts on trying the 4 Tracker+Oboro plan?Quote:
Originally Posted by square_two
I mean, it's cool I guess. I've been on 4 Trackers before and honestly I wouldn't think that the small hit in mana consistency with Oboro is really better than just having 9 fetches. Right now I'm at 21 lands with a single Stronghold and getting early land sequencing just perfect can be a struggle sometimes. Fetches are best with Tracker since you can guarantee two clues right off the bat. Plus I'm running 3 Brainstorm and 3 Jace, so shuffling is always good. Usually an unchecked Tracker over just a few turns of normal land drops is enough to pull you pretty far ahead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brael
Interesting... I guess I have some thinking to do.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brael
I'm also curious.Quote:
Originally Posted by Purple Blood
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Personally, I often ran a couple man lands with PTitan just because it made him more a GSZ-version of the Grave Titan.
Sure, but in that SE list Treetop Village a sb card in a shell w/o Primeval Titan, fetchable via Crop Rotation.
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Anything attrition based.Quote:
Originally Posted by from Cairo
I can't justify his paper price. He's a "maybe" card in the decks I run. I think Nic Fit just ramps bigger tbh.Quote:
Originally Posted by square_two
Playing a charity tournament on Saturday with the following:
4 Veteran Explorer
1 Deathrite Shaman
1 Sakura-Tribe Elder
1 Eternal Witness
1 Fierce Empath
1 Tireless Tracker
1 Meren of Clan Nel Toth
1 Thragtusk
1 Inferno Titan
1 Woodland Bellower
1 Wurmcoil Engine
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
4 Cabal Therapy
4 Green Sun's Zenith
1 Toxic Deluge
3 Night's Whisper
2 Diabolic Intent
2 Lightning Bolt
2 Pernicious Deed
4 Sneak Attack
4 Verdant Catacombs
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Dryad Arbor
3 Bayou
2 Taiga
2 Badlands
3 Forest
2 Swamp
2 Mountain
1 Volrath's Stronghold
1 Phyrexian Tower
sb::
1 Reclamation Sage
2 Lost Legacy
1 To the Slaughter
1 Red Elemental Blast
2 Blood Moon
1 Toxic Deluge
1 Pithing Needle
2 Engineered Plague
2 Abrupt Decay
2 Surgical Extraction
Haven't gotten to play as much lately so I don't have a ton of reps in but I feel fairly happy with this list. Impressions from my testing:
-Dryad Arbor is really good in this list. Better than in previous builds. Zenith for 0 is a turn 1 play that we have fewer of without Top, fetching into Therapy to resolve a Sneak is great, and it has great synergy with Intent.
-Intent is one of the higher-variance pieces of the list but I think 1 is needed, 2 remains to be seen but it helps tie the room together.
-Meren is a lot better now than she used to be.
-List is very much not final but it has legs and we're running with it.
Following your comment, this is what we get:Quote:
Originally Posted by Ganfar
1x Dryad Arbor
4x Veteran Explorer
1x Deathrite Shaman
1x Scavenging Ooze
1x Eternal Witness
1x Courser of Kruphix
2x Tireless Tracker
2x Huntmaster of the Fells
1x Thrun, the Last Troll
1x Meren of Clan Nel Toth
1x Thragtusk
1x Primeval Titan
4x Green Sun's Zenith
2x Sylvan Library
4x Cabal Therapy
3x Pernicious Deed
2x Abrupt Decay
3x Punishing Fire
3x Liliana of the Veil
1x Nissa, Vital Force
4x Verdant Catacombs
2x Wooded Foothills
1x Bloodstained Mire
3x Forest
2x Swamp
1x Mountain
2x Bayou
1x Taiga
1x Badlands
1x Kessig Wolf Run
1x Phyrexian Tower
3x Grove of the Burnwillows
Did some testing with new Nissa. She seems reasonable if you're playing a creature heavy build that can protect her. Made her for 3 on turn 4 and user her +0 each turn, slamming SFM - miss - miss - Tracker which seems fine considering I wasn't manipulating my topdeck at all. I think you want 40+ creatures and lands before she goes in, probably with JTMS to support her.