Originally Posted by
Tenbin
That's a mighty high horse you're on. the maximum of problematic cards left in the deck - i.e. what I talked about in that post - should be weighed against the current amount of cards in the deck. Whether he has one in the hand matters not, I cannot flip it, that's hidden information. So, to the best of my knowledge, given that he has drawn 12 cards, he could AT THE MOST have say 12 problematic cards out of a given 48. By doing a calculation against 60 cards you fool yourself to a better ratio.
When playing a Chaos Warp the odds of flipping a problematic card against a full deck is wholly irrelevant. However, the odds of flipping a problematic cards against his current deck size is very relevant, and should be done with the estimated amount of problematic cards in the deck minus the ones in play or in the grave or known in his hand obviously. Drawing an Emrakul if it's the only card left in your library won't be 4/60, it's gonna be 1/1, please explain how you argue that the draw is random and it will be 4/60, that'd mean that most of the time I WOULDN'T draw an Emrakul if it's the last card in my Library, and frankly, I guess I'm just REALLY lucky with the odds then.
I did my 'calculations' against a deck a few turns into the game when we would likely be using the Warp. Your math is wrong and doesn't hold up. If there is 1 card left in his library when you Warp, the danger of flipping a problematic card is not x/60 something, it's x/2. In the case where is holds all the cards of his library in his hand and none are in known zones my estimation does not hold either, I'll give you that, but it will - in general - give you a more accurate assessment of the dangers involved in Warping something than a ratio of problematic cards against the total deck size.
This will sometimes lead to a ratio that is higher than it actually is as the opponent may hold one of the problematic cards in his hand, but when assessing the danger, I'd rather be on the pessimistic side than the overly optimistic.
Explain why bounce being blue matters more with Griselbrand, FoW-food? Misdirection food? Or do you mean because we'll want to Sneak him in, draw 14 and sneak something else in for the win? The last argument is a reasonable one, I do find myself with a bunch of blue mana more than a bunch of red. I'll be playtesting different setups with Griselbrand, on one hand I feel that having a few outs in the deck is pretty okay when I'm able to just draw 14 to find one, conversely, at a point where you draw 14, you might be able to play around most things available to the opponent game 1 anyway.
