I haven't played Nic Fit in a tournament in over a year now. I have turned to the dark side of casting Tezzerets, Stoneforges or Counterbalances, but I still skim through this thread from time to time and I have kept updated Nic Fit lists which I test occasionally. I have been thinking about Nic Fit more lately cause its a really fun deck and it seems like it is decently positioned right now, with elves being the combo deck of choice, a resurgence of mid-range GBx decks, and D&T and miracles also being not-terrible matchups. This post is basically just a collection of my (hopefully constructive) criticisms of the deck, and ways I think you guys can improve it. I'll be honest though, I probably won't be playing nic fit again too soon and I probably won't continue trying to develop these ideas too much past this post.
I agree with BWG (Askaban?) being pretty bad. Rector is not what it used to be, and no offense Kevin, but even your list where you trimmed Scuttles, there are still too many cute things. Your assessment about why fighting blues late game are spot on though.
As someone who has been on the opposite end of the table for a while, I can tell you, I always feel great when a veteran explore dies and I get to even closer to doing silly things like Snapcastering a FoW. The main issue is against the blue deck, basically all of their cards do something relevant late game. Land, STPS on an empty board, or countermagic on a losing board might be THE ONLY draws that suck. They also have ways to improve the card quality. Nic Fit has a lot more situationally terrible cards and less deck manipulation. The late game cards are not that much better than UWx decks lategame cards. Like is Thragtusk even better than a SFM? A lot of the time no. Batterskull, will in the end, overcome thrag and be more impactful. If you want to beat blue decks, you need to 1. go way over their head with value or power, (pod, pfire, PW, or scapeshift) and 2. not have so many situationally bad cards that the blue player only has to actually care about 1/3rd of the cards you draw.
1. You guys know how to do this. Pod, Pfire, Jaces/garruk/karn or scapeshift are the engines.
2. Is what I think a lot of people need to improve the most.
Its little things that add up. Here are just a few examples of specific card choices:
Play 4 tops in non-brainstorm versions that want top. I was crazy to think 3 was ok, back in the day. Top is never a bad draw, even in drawing 2-3 of them is fine. They cantrip next time you shuffle.
Maximize, your fetchlands in scapeshift. 10 mountains is fine. Yes, you'll lose 1 in 100 games because you NEEDED 11 mountains but when you draw a fetch instead of a stomping ground every 1 in 3 games, you will be much happier.
If you are playing blue play 4 brainstorms, 4 probes, 2-4 Jace, is non-negotiable. These cards are too good. About probe: Probe is secretly the best card in legacy right now. It's not about making a 56 card deck, counting as a blue card, or making therapies better (although the later is very nice). It's good because it lets you operate under prefect information. Imagine all the times you primitively blew a deed gambling their hand was just dead cards, the times you take the more aggressive play and force them to have it (which they do), all those moments where you said, "I did the
right play that anyone would have done, it just wasn't the best play", cause who would have guessed his hand was his 1-of Supreme Verdict and you zenithed for Sigarda instead of thrag/thrun? I'll tell you who could have guessed: the guy with gitaxian probes in his deck.
Please, stop playing slaughter games in the MD. Just play thoughtseize or something that actually is guaranteed to effect the game. Yes, games can actually just beat S&T, and it can kinda hurt miracles, but then its bad like 95% of the rest of the time you see it. Goodstuff like thoughtseize, or abrupt decay are probably only bad closer to 30% of the time you see them.
TL;DR: In general, play more of the stuff that decent regularly, and less of the stuff that's rarely awesome and frequently lame.
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The below list is not perfect, but I think it a step closer to the right direction. I still think Scapewish is one of the most fun decks I have ever played in magic (thanks Kevin), and I think it is actually decently positioned right now. If I were to play it tomorrow I would run this:
3
Badlands2
Bayou3
Forest2
Mountain1
Stomping Ground2
Swamp4
Taiga2
Valakut, the Molten Pinnacle4
Verdant Catacombs1
Wooded Foothills4
Cabal Therapy4
Green Sun's Zenith4
Sensei's Divining Top1
Thoughtseize4
Veteran Explorer2
Abrupt Decay4
Burning Wish1
Sakura-Tribe Elder1
Scavenging Ooze2
Courser of Kruphix1
Eternal Witness3
Pernicious Deed1
Huntmaster of the Fells2
Scapeshift1
Thragtusk1
Primeval Titan
#60
1
Innocent Blood1
Reanimate3
Red Elemental Blast2
Surgical Extraction2
Thoughtseize1
Pyroclasm1
Maelstrom Pulse1
Toxic Deluge1
From the Ashes1
Scapeshift1
Slaughter Games
I have not tested as much with BUG, so take this more of a grain of salt, but again I think something like this good starting place for the "BUG goodstuff" approach which Kevin mentioned. I also think BUG Pod is a great approach (possibly the best approach), I just have not had time to test it really.
2
Bayou2
Creeping Tar Pit3
Forest2
Island1
Misty Rainforest3
Polluted Delta1
Swamp2
Tropical Island2
Underground Sea4
Verdant Catacombs4
Brainstorm4
Cabal Therapy4
Gitaxian Probe3
Green Sun's Zenith4
Veteran Explorer2
Abrupt Decay3
Baleful Strix1
Scavenging Ooze1
Courser of Kruphix1
Eternal Witness3
Pernicious Deed3
Jace, the Mind Sculptor1
Thrun, the Last Troll2
Force of Will1
Thragtusk1
Primeval Titan
#60
3
Carpet of Flowers3
Negate1
Maelstrom Pulse2
Toxic Deluge2
Vendilion Clique2
Force of Will2
Garruk, Primal Hunter
Another option which is possibly better for goodstuff, the above MD, but dropping titan, 1 tarpit, 1 GSZ for a 2nd Thrag and bringing the 2 Garruks MD. Titan, isn't great, but I dont think there is a better option yet. It is also possible Nissa is better than Primal Hunter. I have not tried her yet.
EDIT: A few things I forgot: BUG SB probably should have Swan Songs, and Notion Thief. Maybe wolf run in scapeshift. Maybe Stronghold in BUG. Maybe reclaimation sage in the 75 of both.