The moment you saw Tundra plus Top, and you have a Cabal Therapy option, you should have gone that route to protect yourself.
Now that with his counter lock is there, it will be an uphill battle for you.
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I would've therapied for sure, attempt to grind with tokens. Flash back for any countermagic and try to win with Ad Nauseam.
In game 1 we have zero outs other than getting lucky against a resolved countertop softlock so therapy on CB is definitely right. Not to mention if ponder is your only cantrip ponder is best combined with a fetch afterwards to shuffle the chaff away if you have to.
@Bryant
I've been playing your list and I have to say that I really like it, 2 observations tho' 1) I am losing games to Badlands not being Volcanic Island, it has forced me to play a Fetchland on T1 in order to tutor for a land to be able to cast a cantrip instead of being able to wait until T2 to cast a cantrip off a Volcanic Island and then shuffle away the bad cards. 2) I think if you are only running 6 Discard then 2 Thoughtseize is better than 2 Duress, the life loss isn't a significant issue and being able to get more utility out of Swamp post-board vs D&T by keeping them on the play has been pretty useful.
How is the lifeloss not an issue? We're an Ad Nauseam deck. Not to mention, it's really bad against Delver decks as it helps their tempo. I've been really liking Badlands, to each their own, play a Volcanic then? Being able to play a Brainstorm, fetch, discard spell and still have red on the next turn is worth it to me as that happens more often than the corner cases that Badlands doesn't cast a Cantrip.
Because I don't want to have to exchange my discard for removal, when you aren't forced to SB out Duress for its inability to target relevant disruption you can choose to SB out other cards instead.
Edit: I said significant issue, with 3 Mox back in the deck I haven't had a problem with fizzling out vs anything but RUG.
I would not keep thoughtseize in vs a deck playing bolts.
Isn't this really dependent on the meta? What are the cards that Thoughtseize hits and Duress doesn't? Thalia, Gaddock Teeg, Ethersworn Canonist. Many of the other spells we want the opponent to discard are counters or combo pieces, which are most of the time non-creature cards like Show and Tell. Nonetheless if there are many decks (D&T, Maverick) that run creature hate against us, it looks like Thoughtseize is worth a try. Otherwise losing 2 life means less resources for Ad Nauseam draws.
I like Badlands and really value the possibility of being able to cast discard spells and having red. It is obviously not possible to get rid of all weaknesses such as not being able to shuffle away bad cards with a fetchland on turn 2, but Brainstorm is only 1/3 of our cantrips thereby I would assume this does not happen too often. How often did you lose games to this happening to you?
@Lemnear: I would board against D&T = In: 2 Chain of Vapor, 3 Abrupt Decay, 1 Massacre; Out: 3 Ponder, 2 Duress, 1 Chrome Mox; What would you board. You play the 4 Empty the Warrens in the 75, Would you go for the 4 EtW Main Deck, post board?
Point is: you don't want discard against those hatebear decks, but combo asap. Let them drop their Thalia/Teeg/etc after you have 12+ toblins in the table for example. Thats where you want to be. Your discard is pointless against topdecked hatebears in addition.
With the 3 EtW in SB I would remove the two Duress from MB and board in 2 EtW (3 MB, 1 SB postboard). Don't board out Moxen against a deck which forces you to be quick and never board in Massacre. It stays a Wish-target to grab early and play the draw-go against D&T if they have a plains in play
I use pretty much the same strategy vs D&T except I keep in Thoughtseize and take out Ponder, I just like having more options to SB anyway I want to instead of have to and it's useful vs random stuff like Vendilion Clique and Meddling Mage.
I don't really have a problem with casting discard on one turn and then needing the same land to cast Red on the next turn, especially with 3 Chrome Mox. I find the cards like Swamp, Bayou and Badlands tend to mess up the "Fetchland, go" strategy and even debate Bloodstained Mire and Swamp since the deck doesn't really want to rush its discard and the U/G fetch lets you pass yourself off as BUG for the first game. It matters a lot in the aggro-control match ups where optimal cantrips are game winning.
This post makes no sense at all. What do you mean to say?
The discussion you respond to was about Death & Taxes.
D&T doesn't play Clique. Fetch-go is bad against D&T. Against D&T, if you want discard, you must play it turn one. In this particular matchup the deck does want to rush its discard. That, plus the topdecked hate bear, is why Lem doesn't like the discard.
It's simple, Thoughtseize is strictly better vs D&T than Duress, if that isn't relevant post-board to Lemnear than it's still relevant to him pre-board regardless, and it's situationally better vs control's Vendillion Clique and Meddling Mage in spite of the life loss for Ad Nauseam.
I think being able to keep Thoughtseize and cut Ponder for 2 Empty the Warrens is better than having to cut Duress for 2 Empty the Warrens and keep Ponder vs D&T, because this strategy makes better use of our Swamp.
I agree Thoughtseize is something of a liability vs aggro-control, but with 3 Chrome Mox and Empy the Warrens I feel the life is negligible
Badlands doesn't allow us to "Fetchland, go" and optimize our cantrips on T2 because it doesn't produce blue mana, where Volcanic Island does and I don't find myself needing to cast discard, pass and then tap the same land for red mana. This begins to become a problem when you have Swamp, Bayou and Badlands in your deck, and I often question whether or not Swamp over the 3rd Underground Sea is even correct because it's less consistent and requires us to use Bloodstained Mire instead of Misty Rainforest and concede an informational advantage to our opponent. And yes, I realize my thoughts regarding Thoughtseize and the land configuration contradict each other. Playing Thoughtseize helps me rationalize playing Swamp where playing Duress helps me rationalize Misty Rainforest and the 3rd Underground Sea because Thoughtseize + Swamp is trying to quickly prevent permanent based hate while not exposing itself to Wasteland, and Duress + Underground Sea is trying to patiently hole on to its discard and optimize cantrips. So playing Duress and Swamp to me appears illogical vs anything other than BUG.
These are relatively minor quibbles.
This discussion and arguments are completely messed up.
If I drop a comment about how to tackle D&T you point to Meddling mage and Clique; If I talk about by postboard game you point at preboard use of discard against Hatebears; You talk the "fetchland, go" approach based on a manabase I don't even run; You praise swamp+thoughtseize for Game 1s against D&T and dodge the question of how you know that you play against D&T in the first place and ignore cases of "double hatebear" completely