[Deck] Merfolk

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Originally Posted by Chronatog

Is 12 Islands enough to be able to use Dazes efficiently? Or to be able to use them early in the game at all?

Is 15 Blue mana sources enough to be able to cast UU spells earlier in the game? Especially since you don't use Vials.

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With 12 Islands, you'll see one in the opening grip 81% of the time.

With 15 Blue sources, you'll see two by turn two 65% of the time on the play, 72% on the draw. Note that this includes drawing a first turn Cavern and second-turn Island, which only works with Cursecatcher, not Vial or Daze. The probability of finding actually useful hands with multiple blue sources early in the game is lower than those numbers.

(He does use Vial.)

Source: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Uh, T1 cavern into vial is a totally reasonable thing..

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Originally Posted by kirbysdl

With 12 Islands, you'll see one in the opening grip 81% of the time.
With 15 Blue sources, you'll see two by turn two 65% of the time on the play, 72% on the draw. Note that this includes drawing a first turn Cavern and second-turn Island, which only works with Cursecatcher, not Vial or Daze. The probability of finding actually useful hands with multiple blue sources early in the game is lower than those numbers.

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Yogi Berra had a good commentary on difference between theory and practice ;). So I am interested in hearing about empirical evidences.

For example, I had a situation when I was on the draw and after playing an Island from my opening hand, I had to wait 13 turns to draw a land. By then, I was losing to Snapcaster Mage. Or another time I won over another Merfolks only because I was lucky to get all four True Name Nemesis' during the first five turns (three in play and one in hand, but it didn't matter). Both situations were unlikely, but possible.

So, without dismissing the math behind the game, I would love to hear how 12 Island/15 Blue mana sources deck supports 3 Dazes and 10 UU-mana spells in practice.

Since there are expectations that after DTT ban there will be less decks with Islands, I am currently thinking about adding to my deck some cards to transform lands into Islands. So far I have four options:

• Tidal Warrior - Pros: for U you have another 1/1 merfolk that can attack, block, and can be pumped; can be cast using Caverns of Souls and will work well with Chalice on 1; temporarily transforms one land into an Island. Cons: cannot be used to save non-basic lands from Wastelanding.
• Aquitect's Will - Pros: cost only U, your opponent gets an Island, you draw a card. Cons: uncastable with Chalice on 1, doesn't change land type and land characteristics.
• Sea's Claim - Pros: cost only U, permanently transforms one land into an Island; Cons: Chalice on 1.
• Spreading Seas - Pros: permanently transforms one land into an Island, you draw a card, works well with Chalice on 1. Cons: cost 1U.

Tidal Warrior looks like the best option here, especially assuming that we will have Chalices in MD. However, I am curious to hear if anyone experimented with other options.

Old Merfolk builds had mana like this:
12 Island
4 Muta
4 Waste

It was like that for years and people played 3 or 4 Daze without problems. Or at least Daze/Island play was not a glaring problem before.
Nothing changes about this since we still mostly play 12 Islands plus something else.
I just question Daze usage in general, since I don't see the environment changed at all.

Regarding transformation to Islands, the only viable cards for me are Tidal Warrior and Spreading Seas. The other two are not good.
I have space for neither.

Whoops, missed Cavern into Vial. Sorry about that.

The math doesn't discount the off-chance that you can draw few land or all 4 TNNs. But isn't it odd how you only remember those games where something weird happens? The point of the stats is to lay out the probabilities in terms that are independent of confirmation bias and stories of, "that one time that ___ happened." I agree empirical evidence is useful, as long as you have a decent sample size and don't cherry pick.

Thanks for the comments!

In my specific list above, I can see replacing a brown land for an island, to be safe. But I think 12 islands is the minimum you can play, and it's still playable.

I think we have to be realistic and just accept that the mana will never be good in this deck. Believe me, I'm a very conservative guy when it comes to mana base: i'm very aware of the win percentage I'm loosing, and i'm trying hard to minimize it. But there is a trade-off: brown lands are truly great, and they also win you games. Loosing to mana screw is the most memorable and frustrating, but many games are also lost to flood.

I don't want to enter the debate of math, but Dr. Frank Karsten showed that to reliably cast your Lord on turn 2 or your TNN on turn 3, you need 19-20 blue sources. That's just not a realistic number, no version of the deck ever ran that. I wanted to point out the same fact as Fannatic: when the former incarnation of the deck was as its peak, it ran only 12 islands as blue sources. Not good, but the deck just need utility lands to work. We just have to accept that we're relying on Vial and mulligans.

If you like stable manabases, find another deck :) (prefarably three color, ironically)

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Originally Posted by FANAttIC

I just question Daze usage in general, since I don't see the environment changed at all.

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I see what you mean. I'm just tempted to return to daze at the moment, that's why I'm testing. But it might change of course.

A lot of different decks at the SCG IQ this weekend:

http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...olis&limit=100

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Originally Posted by Chronatog

Since there are expectations that after DTT ban there will be less decks with Islands, I am currently thinking about adding to my deck some cards to transform lands into Islands. So far I have four options:

• Tidal Warrior - Pros: for U you have another 1/1 merfolk that can attack, block, and can be pumped; can be cast using Caverns of Souls and will work well with Chalice on 1; temporarily transforms one land into an Island. Cons: cannot be used to save non-basic lands from Wastelanding.
• Aquitect's Will - Pros: cost only U, your opponent gets an Island, you draw a card. Cons: uncastable with Chalice on 1, doesn't change land type and land characteristics.
• Sea's Claim - Pros: cost only U, permanently transforms one land into an Island; Cons: Chalice on 1.
• Spreading Seas - Pros: permanently transforms one land into an Island, you draw a card, works well with Chalice on 1. Cons: cost 1U.

Tidal Warrior looks like the best option here, especially assuming that we will have Chalices in MD. However, I am curious to hear if anyone experimented with other options.

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Pretty old and marginal tech. Could be of use, if only as reference.

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Originally Posted by dinosaurus

A lot of different decks at the SCG IQ this weekend:

http://sales.starcitygames.com//deck...olis&limit=100

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Probably one of the best things that could happen to Merfolk would be Shardless BUG making a comeback. It will probably be a few weeks before the metagame settles down into something stable, which is unfortunate for me because the first big tournament (SCG STL) is also probably the only tournament I can afford to go to all year. It will be good to get the data from a few IQs in to try to get a feel for what the metagame is, but we may not actually know what decks are good until after that tournament. But in theory, the loss of Dig Through Time means that Shardless becomes the only control deck that gets to play with actual card advantage now, which incentivizes people to play that deck. Which is awesome for Merfolk since the clunkier removal and lack of red cards make that a better matchup than Grixis. I'd rather face Abrupt Decay over Pyroblast all day long.

http://mtgtop8.com/event?e=10596&d=260515&f=LE

Standstill is cool, but I'm not a fan of the sideboard....

I have 5 slots maindeck (20lands/24creatures/4fow/4vial/3chalice) i read daze is obsolete...what would you play? 1xJitte? What other 4 cards?

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Originally Posted by the_goat

I have 5 slots maindeck (20lands/24creatures/4fow/4vial/3chalice) i read daze is obsolete...what would you play? 1xJitte? What other 4 cards?

Sent from my GT-I9195 using Tapatalk

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Depends if you're on a Tempo package; which is incompatible with TNN basically.
You can have the old Daze/Waste/2-drop plan or the Cavern/TNN plan.

Daze is much more powerful next to Waste; and both reduce your mana for 3-drops; hence the problem.

The 1x Jitte is smart for copying SFM and random wins. A second equip seems fine as well.

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Originally Posted by tescrin

Depends if you're on a Tempo package; which is incompatible with TNN basically.
You can have the old Daze/Waste/2-drop plan or the Cavern/TNN plan.

Daze is much more powerful next to Waste; and both reduce your mana for 3-drops; hence the problem.

The 1x Jitte is smart for copying SFM and random wins. A second equip seems fine as well.

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I did not see any list without 4xTNN I believe we are all on the same boat here...

I do not play daze...

I play 2waste as I feel like 2 is good to have but I can see me playing 2factories and 3standstill...or 1 island+1factory...still 2 more slots...1 jitte + 1 clique? 2 dismember?


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Another IQ top 8:

http://sales.starcitygames.com/deckd...?event_ID=29&t[T3]=3&start_date=2015-10-04&end_date=2015-10-04&state=WI&city=Eau%20Claire&order_1=finish&limit=8&t_num=1&action=Show+Decks

Again, quite a mix of decks...

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Originally Posted by the_goat

I play 2waste as I feel like 2 is good to have but I can see me playing 2factories and 3standstill...or 1 island+1factory...still 2 more slots...1 jitte + 1 clique? 2 dismember?

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I like the 21st land, and 2 clique + 2 Jitte. Both cards can be very impactful, they have the potential to win some games that you would otherwise loose. They are on the expensive side, but they work well together and they give you the same incentives to play 21 lands.

I like dismember a lot, but I now prefer it in the SB. I've grown to be a big fan for Jitte.

I think this is true beyond the chalice vs. daze debate.

Agreed. 21 lands, 2 Jitte and 2 Clique is doing quite good for me.

Thank you everyone for your responses. To minimize entropy, will combine my responses and questions.

First of all, I finally lost to Elves. Natural Order. First time I didn't have neither counter-magic, nor boomerang-like spells. Second time, I had Echoing Truth, but it did not work well on Progenitus. Oh, well; mean reversion, I guess.

Second, my metagame has changed after DTT ban and I am seriously thinking about getting back to Dazes. Even Miracles are super fast with Mentors these days. As alternative or even addition, I am thinking about adding some Flusterstorms to MD. They work with Chalices pretty well and are cheap (to cast). Not sure how to build this deck. Perhaps less merfolks, more counter magic and use Augur of Bolas in addition to Silvergill Adept. But Augur is good with Brainstrorm or Sensei's Divining Top, so I perhaps I over-complicate.

Third, Tidal Warrior worked for me only in a few marginal situations and so far I think that the second Jitte would be more helpful. So this "pretty old and marginal tech" is not of my concern anymore.

Forth, I experimented with Mishra's Factory and Standstill and ... it didn't work well for me. At all. The idea to have six to eight man-lands and combine them with Standstills looks good in theory, but in practice was too slow to be efficient. Each time I drew three cards for Standstill, I didn't feel that this yielded me much since I did't have really super strong game changing interrupts in my deck to be able to respond. Anyway, if someone currently is playing Mishra's Factories with Standstills, please share your experience.

Finally, I see a lot of D&T and Maverick in my local meta, as well as some other decks with Mother of Runes and Different types of Sword artifacts (Fire and Ice, for example), so I am thinking about trying Tran Lens in my sideboard. Any thoughts?

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Originally Posted by Chronatog

Finally, I see a lot of D&T and Maverick in my local meta, as well as some other decks with Mother of Runes and Different types of Sword artifacts (Fire and Ice, for example), so I am thinking about trying Tran Lens in my sideboard. Any thoughts?

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Against D&T this is my side
IN:
2x null rod (stops vial + equipments)
1x cursed totem (stops mother/stoneforge/mangara)
1x pithing needle (many targets)
2x echoing truth
2x flusterstorm (suboptimal reply to swords to plowshares and cataclysm)

OUT:
4x vial
4x chalice of the void

it's not the best plan ever...but if they resolve a mystic for sword fire/ice is usually GG...