Hi. I posted this over at MtgSalvation as well but I felt there is more activity here :-)
I've been playing this deck for about two years now and I really like the new direction this deck is heading. I have read through this entire thread (it took quite some time...) and I've had a fun time seing how the deck has evolved and how discussion have gone.
I've often felt that this deck has two major weaknesses:
1) It is relatively slow
This often comes into play against other combo decks as well as against fast aggro decks. This is relatively unique among combo decks since most other combo decks can easily outrace aggro. High Tide can seldom race other combo decks and is often on par with many aggro decks.
This shouldn't really be a problem as long as you're familiar with your match-ups and how to play against them. While speed is definitely a huge factor in how strong a deck is, it's far from the end all/say all for gauging the effectiveness of the deck. High Tide's fundamental turn could easily be sped up by adding play sets of Snap or Retraced Image to the main, but doing this sacrifices a lot of resilience, which is one of the core strengths of the deck.
2) It quite susceptible to hate and discard
This is the major drawback with High Tide. There are very few decks today that are without either counters and/or discard and/or some kind of MD hate. Classic High Tide has relatively few ways to defend itself so (I know some of you do not agree with me here, but I often feel that my 7 counters are a bit few when the opponent has 4-5 discards).
There are very few match-ups in which you can't play around hand disruption. Save your FoW's for Hymns and Cabal therapies if you can, as to try and not 2 for 1 yourself. If that's not cutting it, learn how to use brainstorms better. There's a reason this card is often referred to as "The Best Card in Legacy". Find people who play maindeck Duress or Therapy, then jam games with them and discuss until you get a better idea of when you should be saving brainstorms and when you should fire them off in the main phase. As an aside, you can consider including main deck or siding in another Meditate in order to come back from large card deficits against fair decks that play discard.
Weakness one cannot really be tackled
See notes. The deck cannot really be sped up so trying to race other decks aren’t an option. And I think that most of us can agree that the deck has to evolve somehow. The meta has changed to the worse for High Tide so if we want this deck to become successful again, it has to change something. Thus, being more controlly is probably the best way.
Please stay away from this notion. High Tide has enough trouble trying to out-control many decks in the pre-board alone. Post board is a complete nightmare, your relevant sideboard cards are all bounce which are solely meant to be used to clear the path for your fundamental turn. Copies of Counterbalance are already a stretch, though the ratio of power to card slots (tops already in the main) makes it a very attractive choice. If you're using the term "control" as a synonym for permission, then this is something that can be tackled on a meta by meta basis. However, do not try and turn this into a control deck. High Tide simply does not have the card slots to become something like U/W miracles which tries to outlast and inevitably grind out the opponent.
CounterTop is a solid shell for a controlling deck, and just what we need. It attacks weakness two whilst still not giving in to faster decks. The only weakness of the CounterTop suit is that it makes the combo less stable (more dead cards post-spiral). In my opinion, the solution to this is
Capsize.
To generate inf mana with Capsize, we need: 1 Candelabra of Tawnos, 1 Capsize and that our lands produce 8+N mana, where N is the amount of lands in play So, with 4 lands in play we need 12 mana from our lands (ie. 2 resolved High Tide). With 3 lands, we need 11 mana (3 resolved High Tide). If we have a Top in play with inf mana and a Capsize, we can draw our entire deck and thus win instantly. If we don’t have a Top, you can always bounce your opponents board, in worst case that’ll give you a few turns to build up again.
Capsize is a stable win-con, easy to assemble and fairly quick. I really think that if we want to play CounterTop MD, Capsize should be in the SB or even MD.
Capsize is a neat gimmick, but it doesn't do anything to help you resolve your first Time Spiral any more easily. Four lands and 2 resolved High Tides with a Candelabra in play followed by a wish for Capsize is like the Magic Christmas Land of High Tide combo turns. If you can resolve a High Tide and a Time Spiral, you're already in fantastic shape to win the game and a huge step up in terms of board position. Don't sacrifice card slots for win-more cards (like Capsize) that only help when you're already mid combo.
Other ways to make the deck more controlling could be to involve a second color. While I understand the Wasteland argument (and believe me, it is a very strong argument), with the slower CounterTop build it might be worth looking at again. We could look at what other colors could give us:
Black:
Thoughtseize, Inquisition of Kozilek, Duress - Useful to strip other decks of their weapons against us, also somewhat useful post-spiral to see if the opponent drew FoW.
Toxic Deluge, Drown in Sorrow - Kills almost all hate-bears out there
Red:
Pyroclasm - Kills almost all hate-bears out there
Izzet Charm - Every mode is actually useful. Question is, what card is it better than?
Red Elemental Blast - Meh... Maybe...
Green:
Tangle - Buys time
Exploration, Explore - Have been tried before to get a lot of lands into play
Nature's Claim - Might be useful in SB against... something...
White:
Terminus - Miracle plays it, and with Top, Brainstorm and Ponder we can set up our library almost as much as they can
Humility - If we get this baby into play, we have all the time in the world.
Orim's Chant - Safe combo, and it can buy a turn against aggro.
What saur said is absolutely correct. Any card you add to the deck that is not blue or a basic island dilutes the power of the remaining cards significantly. Wastelands are a prominent part of the format, and many decks cannot afford to side them out in games 2 and 3 simply because they're lands that tap for mana. I spent about 6 months toying with a red splash that had a singleton Volcanic Island for 1x Past in Flames, and that alone was too much for the deck to handle. Land drops are so important for the deck, and having a symmetrical land destruction effect is almost always more detrimental to High Tide than it is to the other deck. Splashes also make cards like FoW and Merchant Scroll worse, as they can only interact with other blue cards. Cases of this being relevant are rarer than Wasteland, but they do cause you to lose games from time to time.
So other colors have good cards and I would really like the splash to be worth it. Is it worth it though? Truth is, I am not sure... I'll do some testing when I get the chance but unfortunately, I'll have to do most of my testing via Cockatrice.
I think the main question regardins splashing is: What would be requiered to justify a splash? If we could make our own non-blue card which would warrent a splash, how would it look? And after we've created our perfect card, analyze if there is a card which is close enough.
Hi. I posted this over at MtgSalvation as well but I felt there is more activity here :-)