The current state of Magic

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Originally Posted by Crimhead

You would bet that Legacy cease to "go on" within just 2 years? That's wholly alarmist, I think.

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Yikes, that was backwards. Meant Legacy first, then neither. Sorry.

My point was more about Arena, though, and to me it is still very much in show-me mode. As Barook said, the one thing that makes Magic unique is a robust in-person play experience, and almost everything they have done with the brand besides that has not "stuck." Even for all its faults, MTGO has been around for so long that it is practically entrenched in its market. But its initial competitors weren't the kinds of games that Arena is trying to compete with. Arena's competitors have an early-mover advantage; it would be like trying to go up against MTG with a paper card game now. The bet is that MTG's name recognition attached with a more Hearthstone-like play experience will create a hit. But, Hearthstone already exists.

I understand the anxiety and unease around Arena as it relates to entrenched players, but worrying about its impact right now isn't necessary, in my opinion. The biggest fear should be them unplugging MTGO but I think they would be incredibly stupid to do that, as it would be nothing but bad press and would alienate a large base of customers who they need to move on to the next thing in order for it to be anything remotely resembling a success.

You could make the case that four bannings in Standard in 13 months may lead Wizards to the conclusion that supporting a paper game with the effects set in ink is just not a tenable business strategy anymore, and it's just easier to go all digital and errata cards remotely. The money they would lose from no longer selling cards would be made up in lower operating costs, etc. But that's a fundamental re-working of their business model and there are a TON of other people who are affected by that -- not the least the network of game stores. There's going to be a long transition time between MTGO/the paper game and Arena, if there even is a transition, and hopefully they are not too stupid and myopic as to just bet on all new customers. Abruptly pulling support for MTGO and paper, and/or going away from their most popular format by far in Modern, would be a massive strategic error.

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Originally Posted by Lord Seth

On the other hand, aren't Yugioh and Pokemon aimed much more towards kids? You look at Magic booster packs and they say "12+" whereas Pokemon and Yu-Gi-Oh products say "6+". They're clearly aimed at a younger crowd (even if older people do also play them), so them being much more popular among kids makes sense.

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Most of our group started playing at the beginning of the 6th grade (Mirage/Tempest era - good times). I don't see any of those kids start playing Magic anymore. Competition has become alot harder.

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Originally Posted by kombatkiwi

I've seen a lot of YGO players (teenagers or older) not want to try magic because they have the impression that the playerbase is full of sweaty neckbeards, at least locally I have seen a lot more of them try to start playing pokemon or the new dragonball game.

For much younger players maybe having the TV shows and related things to support the card game makes these other games like Yugioh/Pokemon more appealing

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I just imagined the horror of a Jacetice League cartoon.

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Originally Posted by maharis

Yikes, that was backwards. Meant Legacy first, then neither. Sorry.

My point was more about Arena, though, and to me it is still very much in show-me mode. As Barook said, the one thing that makes Magic unique is a robust in-person play experience, and almost everything they have done with the brand besides that has not "stuck." Even for all its faults, MTGO has been around for so long that it is practically entrenched in its market. But its initial competitors weren't the kinds of games that Arena is trying to compete with. Arena's competitors have an early-mover advantage; it would be like trying to go up against MTG with a paper card game now. The bet is that MTG's name recognition attached with a more Hearthstone-like play experience will create a hit. But, Hearthstone already exists.

I understand the anxiety and unease around Arena as it relates to entrenched players, but worrying about its impact right now isn't necessary, in my opinion. The biggest fear should be them unplugging MTGO but I think they would be incredibly stupid to do that, as it would be nothing but bad press and would alienate a large base of customers who they need to move on to the next thing in order for it to be anything remotely resembling a success.

You could make the case that four bannings in Standard in 13 months may lead Wizards to the conclusion that supporting a paper game with the effects set in ink is just not a tenable business strategy anymore, and it's just easier to go all digital and errata cards remotely. The money they would lose from no longer selling cards would be made up in lower operating costs, etc. But that's a fundamental re-working of their business model and there are a TON of other people who are affected by that -- not the least the network of game stores. There's going to be a long transition time between MTGO/the paper game and Arena, if there even is a transition, and hopefully they are not too stupid and myopic as to just bet on all new customers. Abruptly pulling support for MTGO and paper, and/or going away from their most popular format by far in Modern, would be a massive strategic error.

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One of the problems with Arena is that it prevents players from investing into MTGO further, given how non-chalantly the pulled the plug from Duels out of nowhere.

For Arena to succeed, it needs
a) a viable business with reasonable prices instead of maximum player gauging
b) a good, bug-light experience and
c) good Limited formats (very hit-and-miss) and a Standard that doesn't suck (currently not the case, see bannings).

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Originally Posted by Barook

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a) a viable business with reasonable prices instead of maximum player gauging
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That made me think of the "What's the biggest challenge facing magic?" question.

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A Standard that doesn't suck

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They could just implement Ravnica-Lorwyn era Standards as permanent formats and their job would be done.

They have Garfield leading the next block. Let's see what happens.

Edit:
Is a set, and it's a standalone. First Dom standalone since Homelands... Rough set to follow that one. All those heavy hitters.

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Originally Posted by Dice_Box

They have Garfield leading the next block. Let's see what happens.

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It'll probably be a set full of lasagna and without any Mondays...

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Originally Posted by Ace/Homebrew

It'll probably be a set full of lasagna and without any Mondays...

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I mean, I'd draft that.

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Originally Posted by Dice_Box

They have Garfield leading the next block. Let's see what happens.

Edit:
Is a set, and it's a standalone. First Dom standalone since Homelands... Rough set to follow that one. All those heavy hitters.

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The last two sets where he was a guest designer were the original Ravnica and Innistrad. I have faith in him. If WotC still manages to fuck this up despite Garfield in the house, then Magic is into deep shit.

On a different note:
Magic: The Gathering Arena Closed Beta Gameplay

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Originally Posted by Barook

If WotC still manages to fuck this up despite Garfield in the house, then Magic is into deep shit.

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"Aut inveniam viam aut faciam."

Naw, in all seriousness, that is good news. Hoping for the best.

Numbers are subject to change, but let me get this straight, from what data we got from the video above and some people crunching the numbers on Twitter:

It's highly likely that Tier 1 Standard decks are more expensive to acquire on Arena than MTGO and you can neither resell them nor convert them into resources? :eyebrow:

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Originally Posted by Barook

Numbers are subject to change, but let me get this straight, from what data we got from the video above and some people crunching the numbers on Twitter:

It's highly likely that Tier 1 Standard decks are more expensive to acquire on Arena than MTGO and you can neither resell them nor convert them into resources? :eyebrow:

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Yeah, that sounds about right in our current loot box age.

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Originally Posted by morgan_coke

Yeah, that sounds about right in our current loot box age.

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It's funny, because it's fucking true. I guess Arena will end up a pure P2W environment no way different than all the mobile gatchapon games out there.

So I guess you have to earn Wildcard boosters (1 mythic, 1 rare, 2 unc, 4 common) by filling up "the Vault". You fill up the Vault by completing quests, opening boosters, or turning in 5th cards. You don't need to turn in only rares to get rare wildcards, you can turn in only commons and still unlock a Wildcard booster. I assume you automatically turn in duplicate 5th cards.

Opening boosters can also have extra wildcards I assume. I haven't gotten to the part of the explanation of why mythic and rare have the same drop rate in a wildcard booster (1 each).

You can redeem a wildcard for any single card of that rarity.

So yeah, ultimately if you still open a bunch of U/W rares, you can't trade those for Mono Red rares.

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Oh, and you earn coins from quests/winning games, and coins are used to buy boosters. I assume you can buy gems or something straight up to buy boosters.

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Originally Posted by Claymore

So I guess you have to earn Wildcard boosters (1 mythic, 1 rare, 2 unc, 4 common) by filling up "the Vault". You fill up the Vault by completing quests, opening boosters, or turning in 5th cards. You don't need to turn in only rares to get rare wildcards, you can turn in only commons and still unlock a Wildcard booster. I assume you automatically turn in duplicate 5th cards.

Opening boosters can also have extra wildcards I assume. I haven't gotten to the part of the explanation of why mythic and rare have the same drop rate in a wildcard booster (1 each).

You can redeem a wildcard for any single card of that rarity.

So yeah, ultimately if you still open a bunch of U/W rares, you can't trade those for Mono Red rares.

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Oh, and you earn coins from quests/winning games, and coins are used to buy boosters. I assume you can buy gems or something straight up to buy boosters.

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From the number crunches posted on Twitter, you can earn roughly 3-4 boosters per week by playing. One Vault takes roughly 23 boosters to charge. The free-2-play aspect is a joke.

The reason I don't play Hearthstone is my inability to buy Singles. Guess I skip this too. Didn't even know it was a thing.

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Originally Posted by Dice_Box

The reason I don't play Hearthstone is my inability to buy Singles. Guess I skip this too. Didn't even know it was a thing.

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https://twitter.com/SaffronOlive/sta...47300369207297

Hilariously enough, it seems that they've even copied the dust ratios from Hearthstone to fill the Vault - except it's quite possible that you're going to need multiples of the same mythics instead of one legendary each.

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Originally Posted by Barook

https://twitter.com/SaffronOlive/sta...47300369207297

Hilariously enough, it seems that they've even copied the dust ratios from Hearthstone to fill the Vault - except it's quite possible that you're going to need multiples of the same mythics instead of one legendary each.

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THAT'S the kind of innovative thinking I've come to expect from WotC's digital teams.

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Originally Posted by Dice_Box

They have Garfield leading the next block. Let's see what happens.

Edit:
Is a set, and it's a standalone. First Dom standalone since Homelands... Rough set to follow that one. All those heavy hitters.

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Is Garfield actually leading design, or is he just on the design team? Lead design would be a major surprise, as while he's been on several design teams since the first sets, I think the last time he was lead designer was Arabian Nights. (of which he was actually the only designer)

I suspect the Arena economy was intentionally undershot for the initial reveal. Overshooting and then taking away f2p stuff tends to be hard on pr. That said, these numbers are not even close to sustainable.

I highly doubt it was intentionally undershot. I think they just copied the numbers from Hearthstone wholesale. A lot of these ratios were probably decided well in advance and before complaints about HS being ridiculously expensive and incredibly stingy towards new and F2P players became big. In fact, I suspect the monetization aspect probably predated most other elements in the design of the game, and that a big part of the justification for it was, "Blizzard can do it," and, "Players pay a lot of money for paper decks," without any real understanding of the fact that Blizzard is massively far ahead of every other non-mobile games company out there in its ability to build Skinner boxes.

I suspect what will happen is that these ratios will go live and the game will bomb because a ton of people will try it for the IP and realize it's too hard to get traction and build the decks they want, and they'll move to the plethora of other games out there that are more generous, or move back to MTGO to get a Magic experience that's more true to the dynamics of the paper game.