Miracle Control

I think you're completely missing the heart of the question. What's really being asked is what is worth more: the ability to have UU for a potential counterbalance/counterspell topdeck or an extra shuffle effect with top online. The odds that you draw balance or counterspell on your second turn is not that high. As such, the extra shuffle effect is almost certainly worth more as a guaranteed way to let you see more cards to make sure you find exactly what you need. It's not even clear that casting a balance on turn 2 is even going to be a safe play for you--if they counter it and follow up with their own balance you might have just lost.

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Originally Posted by Valtrix

I think you're completely missing the heart of the question. What's really being asked is what is worth more: the ability to have UU for a potential counterbalance/counterspell topdeck or an extra shuffle effect with top online. The odds that you draw balance or counterspell on your second turn is not that high. As such, the extra shuffle effect is almost certainly worth more as a guaranteed way to let you see more cards to make sure you find exactly what you need. It's not even clear that casting a balance on turn 2 is even going to be a safe play for you--if they counter it and follow up with their own balance you might have just lost.

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That's imho not exactly right. Because first you must ask yourself if you want to spin Top on your upkeep. The upside is obviously that if you don't and find Counterspell or Counterbalance you can play it directly.
If you think about topdecking one of the two mentioned spells however, you should also think that the chance of having a miracle on top of your library is the same or higher (depending if you're playing more Entreat the Angels than Counterspell). So, if Top resolves and you just have 3 lands in your hand left there is actually no reason to not spin in your next upkeep.
The real question is if you want UUU at turn three or not. The way I see it, most players will be very slow in the mirror, building up lands and not just slamming stuff into open mana. In current lists, one open fetch can represent anything from Redblast to Spell Snare or Spell Pierce. Like you said, getting your CB countered for one mana and then they follow up with their own copy is devastating. The only way I'd slam CB T2 into 1 open mana from my opponent is when I have FoW backup. And even then I'll probably spin Top in my upkeep to further build my base instead of getting pierced and deploy CB at somepoint later.
So, from experience, as long as there's mana open, players will be very wary about counterspells (in general, not the actual one), so you should be able to play your lands unmolested for a few turns. And while doing that, you have the most chances of not drawing miracles and/or finding countermagic when you start with Plains and spin Top on your next upkeep.

Is there an ACTUAL way to beat Goblins game 1? I played against a tier 5 list (no Wastelands, no Ports, no Warren Instigator, but everything else pretty much standard) and still lost.

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Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual

Is there an ACTUAL way to beat Goblins game 1? I played against a tier 5 list (no Wastelands, no Ports, no Warren Instigator, but everything else pretty much standard) and still lost.

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You need to assemble the "combo" by stacking Terminus, then Entreat the card under. Even if Goblins sandbags a Matron or Ringleader, it would take some turns for Goblins to setup post-Terminus. It's absolutely imperative for you to Entreat Immediately after a Terminus/Pyroclasm.

seriously? with 4 StP and 4 Terminus and 2+ Snapmage?

Nowaday there is even Mentor for chump block and Izzet Staticaster for the tokens (be them Goblin, Elementals or Monks)

How comes that Goblin is s threath?

Have you actually played against Goblins? They recover from removal (mass or spot) extremely quickly.

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Originally Posted by Poron

seriously? with 4 StP and 4 Terminus and 2+ Snapmage?

Nowaday there is even Mentor for chump block and Izzet Staticaster for the tokens (be them Goblin, Elementals or Monks)

How comes that Goblin is s threath?

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Have you actually tested the matchup, like... At all?

I play 1 Null Rod in SB for those matchups where I don't need CB.

mud
goblin
dnt

with Containment Priest it's usually more than enough to keep them from using Vial.

Without it, they're just a worse Merfolk..

I also play 1 Monastery Monk and 1 Izzet Staticaster and the usual 4+4 white removals..

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Originally Posted by Poron

I play 1 Null Rod in SB for those matchups where I don't need CB.

mud
goblin
dnt

with Containment Priest it's usually more than enough to keep them from using Vial.

Without it, they're just a worse Merfolk..

I also play 1 Monastery Monk and 1 Izzet Staticaster and the usual 4+4 white removals..

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You play NULL ROD in your SENSEI'S DIVINING TOP deck?

:eek::confused:

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Originally Posted by twndomn

You need to assemble the "combo" by stacking Terminus, then Entreat the card under. Even if Goblins sandbags a Matron or Ringleader, it would take some turns for Goblins to setup post-Terminus. It's absolutely imperative for you to Entreat Immediately after a Terminus/Pyroclasm.

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G1 would you ever FoW something that's not an Aether Vial? Like, I found myself FoW'ing Goblin Lackeys and Goblin Ringleaders when I couldn't counter them with CB/remove them before they could generate too much value.

Obviously I side Top out when I play Null Rod.

It's the obly way to have a 55% win (like) against MUD.

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Originally Posted by Poron

Obviously I side Top out when I play Null Rod.

It's the obly way to have a 55% win (like) against MUD.

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So, why not playing pithing needle, that do better for less mana?

Because MUD is always more common and they can play both Ugin and Emrakul through lands and Kuldotha, Metalworker and so on.

That's why I also side in Blood Moon.

Same side in against 12 posts. It's a sort of "desperate" SB, to have some chance against terrible matchup.

Before I was using Cursed Totem for Elves and MUD but Grim Monolith and everything else brought to Ugin way too soon to deal with it seriously.

so.. Null Rod and Blood Moon for MUD and 12 posts

What the hell does Null Rod hit against 12Post? They're not using Top as often as we are, nor is Top as crucial to their plan as it is ours.

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Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual

What the hell does Null Rod hit against 12Post? They're not using Top as often as we are, nor is Top as crucial to their plan as it is ours.

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My guess would be candelabra and expedition map, both key pieces in their game plan.

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Originally Posted by decan

Please leave this forum. you are definitely not qualified to post here

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That kind of comment is not constructive at all. Poron is just trying to think outside the box and offer suggestions, you can vehemently disagree with him, but there is no need to insult him.

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Originally Posted by skyout

My guess would be candelabra and expedition map, both key pieces in their game plan.

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By the time we draw that Null Rod (assuming we don't auto-mull to it), it's too late and they're already got 2 Cloudposts on board and one in hand, as well as a Tropical Island to cast Repeal. Sure, Candelabra is a nice target to hit, but I'd rather use the 1-mana Pithing Needle since it works against multiple decks, good and bad MUs, not just a narrow range. And it doesn't shut down our best card.

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Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual

What the hell does Null Rod hit against 12Post? They're not using Top as often as we are, nor is Top as crucial to their plan as it is ours.

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Expedition Map, which is the only thing that gets them out of Blood Moon lock

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Originally Posted by CutthroatCasual

By the time we draw that Null Rod (assuming we don't auto-mull to it), it's too late and they're already got 2 Cloudposts on board and one in hand, as well as a Tropical Island to cast Repeal. Sure, Candelabra is a nice target to hit, but I'd rather use the 1-mana Pithing Needle since it works against multiple decks, good and bad MUs, not just a narrow range. And it doesn't shut down our best card.

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In that matchup is much more important to look for Blood Moon. I play 1 or 2 Tutors for those matchups infact..

pretty much to have a chance.

Null Rod? You absolutely have to be trolling here. There are a lots other ways to beat 12 post and MUD other than that.

99% of the reasons why I am here is to learn..