Yes. You cut dark rit, I wouldn't take out manamorphose though, as it still helps you play tinder wall, and play black or blue spells off of wish.
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Yes. You cut dark rit, I wouldn't take out manamorphose though, as it still helps you play tinder wall, and play black or blue spells off of wish.
I really like the first of those lists without Empty the Warrens with Duress & Tutors. A lot of times I've made a lot of Goblins and the person has survived and crushed me. Maelstrom Pulse, Powder Keg, EE, Echoing Truth, Pyroclasm, Propaganda, Elephant Grass, even a lifelinker like Rhox War Monk can offset your Goblins. Also it sucks having multiple win cons in an opening hand, usually leaving you without enough accelerants. Charbelcher is the best win con, and that deck is optimised to get it.
So... nobody is discussing this deck?
6 people out of 140 played it in LA, and it won 2/3rds of its matches, including putting a player in the T8 and another one in the T16.
Not much to discuss. You mostly ll win ur non-blue mu's and throw a coin against the blue ones.
Also lists have been tweaked for years now.
All in all a meta dependant deck but fuckin boring as hell.
Also:Why would u want to discuss the deck now. oOQuote:
Originally Posted by Forbiddian
I'm probing if there's new tech or something.
No it's pretty much the same stuff it's been doing forever. Most decks are ill-prepared against turn 1 blowouts g1 and not that much better off g2. Good pairings will also get you into the top tables.
The only "new tech", or rather a metagame strategy switch, is to give up the more easily answered EtW win for a deck more focused on Belching for the win, since EtW is now answered by the likes of EE, Pyroclasm, Echoing Truth, etc. This build uses Spoils of the Vault to tutor for that last piece of the combo you need. Some say it kills you too often, but in my experience, it has been pretty solid. Here's an example list:Quote:
Originally Posted by Forbiddian
// Lands
1 [U] Bayou
1 [B] Taiga
// Creatures
4 [AL] Elvish Spirit Guide
4 [IA] Tinder Wall
4 [PLC] Simian Spirit Guide
// Spells
4 [MR] Chrome Mox
4 [9E] Seething Song
3 [SHM] Manamorphose
4 [JU] Burning Wish
4 [MR] Goblin Charbelcher
4 [MM] Land Grant
3 [MR] Spoils of the Vault
4 [CHK] Desperate Ritual
4 [4E] Dark Ritual
4 [CS] Rite of Flame
4 [TE] Lotus Petal
4 [MI] Lion's Eye Diamond
The other, more classic version of Belcher, plays 3 Empty the Warrens instead of the Spoils. It really seems like a personal preference choice.
Other than choosing between those two lists, and what sideboard cards to include, there really isn't any new tech.
Incidentally, for those interested, I just calculated the whiff probabilities:
http://i190.photobucket.com/albums/z...robability.jpg
Pretty much the best you can do off a turn 1 Belch is an 80% chance to kill. Against aggro decks where you have time, you need to set up multibelch or double land grant, etc.
80% is pretty good. Especially since you can belch more than one turn. And since most of the deck is mana sources, it isnt very hard to draw into another 3 mana to activate the belcher again on the next turn.
Taking that a step further:
You have a 47.4% chance of drawing at least one Land Grant or Taiga in your opening hand. If the deck also has Bayou, you have an 11.7% chance of drawing it and nothing else, the same for Taiga, 29% for one Land Grant and nothing else, and 22.8% for 2 or more of the 6.
Taking all of this into account, if you draw your opening hand of 7, cast any Land Grants, and then Belch your opponent who is at 20, a build with only Taiga has a 9% chance of fizzling, while a build which also has Bayou has a 31.6% chance of fizzling if you fetch Bayou with your first Land Grant, and 37% if you fetch Taiga first. Assuming I don't suck at math. EDIT: Actually, I do, the odds for single Bayou/Taiga/Land Grant are wrong; they should be lower than they are. Hence, so are the numbers for the Bayou builds, which should be worse than they are. Let me redo that.
This sounds like compelling evidence not to include Bayou. It more than triples your chances of fizzling, to around one in every three tries instead of one in ten. Of course, to make an accurate decision, you also need to calculate by how much it increases your chances of Belching in the first place, which seems like it would be better done with simulation rather than calculation. It gets even more complex if you want to take EtW into account.
I've never seen the need for Bayou anyway in Belcher. You don't need it to cast Dark Rituals, and the SB options that it provides just clogs the deck up.
Has anyone worked to optimize a one-land version? When you streamline the deck to go for the Belcher win, seems you'd also try to maximize Belcher getting a kill, therefore cutting Bayou. Perhaps cut the Bayou for another Manamorphose? I know the problem will be getting that first black, but it is only 1 Bayou after all. You still can via Chrome Mox, Manamorphose & Lotus Petal. LED is probably no help. If only there was a Zombie Spirit Guide...
1 [b] Taiga
4 [AL] Elvish Spirit Guide
4 [IA] Tinder Wall
4 [PLC] Simian Spirit Guide
4 [MR] Chrome Mox
4 [9E] Seething Song
4 [SHM] Manamorphose
4 [JU] Burning Wish
4 [MR] Goblin Charbelcher
4 [MM] Land Grant
3 [MR] Spoils of the Vault
4 [CHK] Desperate Ritual
4 [4E] Dark Ritual
4 [CS] Rite of Flame
4 [TE] Lotus Petal
4 [MI] Lion's Eye Diamond
Without Bayou, the worst you can do is 20% whiff; otherwise you win.
Edit: Wow, a few people beat me to it! Hehe. All hail the banishing of Bayou!!
For fucks sake, belcher is played so that you don't have to think. You guys are ruining it.
I used to think that as well. But then I've seen Belcher players dumping out all the mana in their hand and then saying "oh, I'm short one mana" or "I just realized I don't have a kill in hand".Quote:
Originally Posted by beastman
The deck's a glass cannon, for sure. But at the very least you should think of how to aim it right.
For fucks sake, you've seen people fail at counting to 7 or ensuring that a card in their hand is titled, "Goblin Charbelcher?"Quote:
Originally Posted by kicks_422
I will now lock myself in my room until I can calculate the odds of Belcher going off.
I agree that you don't need to think a lot playing Belcher, but this deck needs that you think in your strategy before play it. And "strategy" means:
- 2 or 3 colors?
- Spoils or not?
- Bayou or not?
- How many Wild Cantor?
- etc...
Many people makes this work for you, so you can get a list, play it and don't think anything, but this doesn't mean that you can't improve the lists.
Some pages ago, someone suggest a R/G list with Recross the Paths. After play the Taiga, you can cast Recross and sort all your deck, making a Turn 2 win with Belcher activation (Turn 1 if you have Manamorphose too, but Land Grant + Recross + Manamorphose is a lot of luck). I didn't test it, but is new tech.
Would you ever consider a sideboard with Pyromancer's Swath and Grapeshot, for a variant Storm kill? Or is that too meta-dependent?
You go from 1 card combo-win (Goblin Charbelcher or Empty the warrens) to 2 cards combo win.
I can't see how this sideboard would improve the deck
Agreed. Swath Shot is disrupted by the same things as Belcher is, so there is no advantage to using it as another wincon. Unless you want to just make a legacy swathshot deck.