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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jason
Someone needs to tell Nicol Bolas to go down to $12 so I can get one for EDH/Commander!
You get your wish in a few months as he's getting reprinted in the Ajani vs Nicol Bolas duel deck.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Jason
Someone needs to tell Nicol Bolas to go down to $12 so I can get one for EDH/Commander!
$14 is alot closer to $12 than $50.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Seems like the insane growth reached its threshold for now - SCG currently has 45 NM FoW's available for $90, T&T has also quite a few Wastelands and FoW's available.
Also, T&T lowered their buy price for NM Wastelands to $54 (from $60) - but seems like they increased their buy price for Force of Will to $65.
I guess lots of cards came out of hoarder's closets and basements (lured by big prices), and hopefully ended in hands of Legacy players.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Folks, I don't know if this topic has been discussed, but I wonder what the market model for these cards really looks like. In other words, bubbles happen when people start talking exactly the way I read you people talking. Do Magic cards follow the same market forces that real estate, gold, stocks, currency, and everything else do? I don't expect that anyone can answer that question definitively. I am not a financial expert, but I don't recall bonafide good cards like dual lands ever even dipping much in value. I have to wonder if the fact that you can actually use cards - that is, that they have some sort of intrinsic value - makes a difference here.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Well as long as certain cards can be played the prices arent dropping anymore. Look at Tarmogoyf, its price has lowered a little but its still the most expensive creature and he can only be played in legacy now.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I think the run on Wastelands and Force of Wills has happened because of speculation: I better get some before they go up, in case I'll ever need them. I think that's what the main problem is, not that suddenly people ACTUALLY need them.
-Matt
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
sdematt
I think the run on Wastelands and Force of Wills has happened because of speculation: I better get some before they go up, in case I'll ever need them. I think that's what the main problem is, not that suddenly people ACTUALLY need them.
-Matt
yeah, who'd need wasteland, duals, FOW or tarmo, playing legacy
which decks in this format really run them?
&_&
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Double sarcasm is half the fun
Makes frog sad ....
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
honestly, I find it more baffling that Force of Will has NOT been a $100 card for a long time.
Really, it's closest comparison is Mana Drain... both being uncommon counter's that are "good."
Drain goes in *some* Vintage decks, mostly fringe ones. $90 is pretty common for an Italian one on ebay, and drain has only gotten better since wizards dropped mana burn... still, it's a card that remains basically unusable, even for vintage players.
Force of will goes in...what... every deck that runs blue in legacy and almost every non-dredge non-stax deck in vintage? I mean really... it is one of the best cards ever printed.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
leegoo
honestly, I find it more baffling that Force of Will has NOT been a $100 card for a long time.
Really, it's closest comparison is Mana Drain... both being uncommon counter's that are "good."
Drain goes in *some* Vintage decks, mostly fringe ones. $90 is pretty common for an Italian one on ebay, and drain has only gotten better since wizards dropped mana burn... still, it's a card that remains basically unusable, even for vintage players.
Force of will goes in...what... every deck that runs blue in legacy and almost every non-dredge non-stax deck in vintage? I mean really... it is one of the best cards ever printed.
Unusable in Vintage???? It's a pillar of the format. Drains vs Rits vs Rods vs Shops vs Bazaars. That's Vintage.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Doomsday
Unusable in Vintage???? It's a pillar of the format. Drains vs Rits vs Rods vs Shops vs Bazaars. That's Vintage.
Drain gets displaced by Gush right now. Why do you need a counterspell to ramp up your mana when your engine is essentially free?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
majikal
Drain gets displaced by Gush right now. Why do you need a counterspell to ramp up your mana when your engine is essentially free?
Still a pillar for non gush, control decks.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Sadly Spell Pierce is slowly nudging Drains out of the control pillar. As long as the format has a significant MUD dominance, Drains is the subpar counter these days. Quoting someone on TMD "Using Drains to fight Workshop is like using Exclude to fight Bob".
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Agreed. Most everyone in my vintage meta has moved on from drains to pierce, or even mindbreak trap in some cases. I mean, it's hard to justify it in many decks that it would *seem* good in. I guess Tezz and Oath still run it as a 2-4 of sometimes... and remora (if you consider that a deck still)
I really think drain wouldn't be a terrible option to "test" unbanning in legacy. Looks like it could really shine there. Or it could be (too) stupid good... but it seems more on the Legacy power level
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
leegoo
Agreed. Most everyone in my vintage meta has moved on from drains to pierce, or even mindbreak trap in some cases. I mean, it's hard to justify it in many decks that it would *seem* good in. I guess Tezz and Oath still run it as a 2-4 of sometimes... and remora (if you consider that a deck still)
I really think drain wouldn't be a terrible option to "test" unbanning in legacy. Looks like it could really shine there. Or it could be (too) stupid good... but it seems more on the Legacy power level
In B4 Z0mG u canz play JTMS on TuRn 3 w/ Spel1 Peirce backup!1!!11!!!
In all seriousness, Drain is probably what's needed for pure control to become a pillar of the format again, but I don't think it's going to happen. My wallet would also HATE if it did happen lol. Imagine the prices of that card after the unban...it would make Candelabra seem like a budget card.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Not going to happen. Power level still exceeds that of Legacy. It's also a highly obnoxious card in the format if it's ever unbanned. Can you imagine every deck playing blue because they fear getting drained? At least I would be playing blue because I don't want my threats getting drained into a free Jace TMS.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
totally agree the price hike would be enormous immediately following.
I question whether Drain, Earthcraft, Mind Twist, or Wheel of Fortune are all THAT broken. Very good, yes, but those cards in general don't hold the same power level as things like Academy, DTutor, Time Vault, etc.
Drain - would make control in legacy better without making it insane.
Earthcraft - you get what... a turn 2 kill combo deck with a god hand that requires you to attack? Maybe a different build of enchantress? Doesn't seem much more broken than Belcher/ANT/etc in the land of combo.
Mind Twist - Is there a deck that can run this? Would one appear? I just don't know... getting twisted for 4-5 on turn 1 seems like it may be too good, but I'm not sold that it is.
Wheel of Fortune - Really... I don't know... it's obviously better than Diminishing Returns, but that see's play as a 1 of in TES and that's it...
Some of the other's are questionable, but I don't know how you'd be able to tell if they would be forgotten or format warping. I do think we should keep Jar on the banned list though :)
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If you're calling mana drain fringe playable, I'm surprised you have the cognitive ability to type on these boards.
There are many, many Gush lists that run drain, as well as all of the Tezzeret variants (thoughtcasts, Dark confidants, night's whisper)
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I have no idea what you're talking about leego, but I don't think it's Vintage. Below are the 15 most used Vintage cards in top 8 decks this past month, from Morphling.de (check out number 3)
March 2011 Top 15
Vintage (15 events)
1. Force of Will (312)
2. Underground Sea (189)
3. Mana Drain (157)
4. Wasteland (147)
5. Polluted Delta (123)
6. Hurkyl's Recall (116)
7. Leyline of the Void (112)
8. Scalding Tarn (109)
9. Pithing Needle (102)
10. Black Lotus (98)
11. Misty Rainforest (97)
12. Mox Emerald (96)
13. Mox Sapphire (95)
14. Mox Pearl (94)
15. Nature's Claim (94)
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I'd love to play my Drains in legacy! Please, please, please unban Mana Drain! It would jack up the price of Drains so much that maybe people would stop playing as much blue (because they couldn't afford the "real Counterspell"), driving the price of Force of Will down.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I would love drain to be unbanned, it is perhaps my favorite card and to be able to play control and have it be good would be a god send.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I thought this thread was supposed to be about the rising price of Legacy Magic cards. There is another thread on ban list speculation here:
http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...ulation/page33
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
mana drain is far too powerful for legacy
does anyone know how to make a reasonable estimate of how many cards are 'available' for purchase etc.
recently there has been a lot of talk about Candleabra - the cost being directly related to its availability (and the fact that it appears in a top legacy deck obviously)
apparently there were 31000 printed but many have said (most notably ben bleiweiss) that many fewer are actually available due to card loss and collectors holding on to their cards etc.
i wonder about this, because i remember Candleabra always being a popular card, so i doubt so many were dumped - unlike say Grim Tutor - but i just wondered if there was any real way to get a handle on how many cards were actually available on the market - maybe listings on ebay over a one year period or something?!?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
It's quite funny with people complaining about the prices in this thread. THIS THREAD is a big source to the speculation.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Using that number (31000), there is 7750 playsets of candleabras. Loss/ destruction/ hoarding, I'm sure cant account for more than half being missing. That leaves us with around 3800 playsets, which is a lot, I think.
I do not believe that there's only 250 playsets left.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
birds of paradise2
It's quite funny with people complaining about the prices in this thread. THIS THREAD is a big source to the speculation.
Actually the concerns are quite valid and most of the opinions spoken in this thread are based off of real-life price fluctuations as they happen.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Klazam
That leaves us with around 3800 playsets, which is a lot, I think.
I do not believe that there's only 250 playsets left.
You might be correct sir, but according to the article Ben said around 250 playsets 'in circulation' specifically.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
'in circulation'
what does that mean - currently avail. on ebay + major online stores?
i wonder where he got that figure, i doubt he did any sort of research on how many were actually avail. from these retailers
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
What he meant are those which will be available for sale online or for trade from players' binders in the coming months. Not included are those which have been forgotten or hiding away in some basement or vault, owner is a collector or inactive etc.
I tried hoarding the card since January. Did some research, most online stores didn't really have them in stock. I was willing to pay $55 and stopped when the card reached above $60. 250 playsets feels like an overestimation, it might actually be fewer.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Unban Drain? lol
You think people are bitching about High Tide NOW......
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
250 playsets? I bet it's fewer. Iron Man Ante was pretty devastating to the amount of cards from Chronicles back. That set pissed off a ton of people and made it more popular. I wish I could find out how many Alpha Islands are left. That would be an interesting one to know since it was the most despised card to get out of Alpha due to the fact it replaced your rare a lot of the time. Shred!
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
250 playsets? I bet it's fewer.
so you're saying that out of 31000 cards, 30,000 have been lost, destroyed, held by collectors/players or otherwise unavailable for sale
despite the lure of a grand for a playset
i just don't believe this figure - where did it come from, it seems plucked out of the air
the issue of scarcity is very important to value because people believing that their cards are rarer or more unavailable than they actually are tends to lead to situations where they sit on their cards, rather than selling them (waiting for the big payday) it is this behavior that can lead to price spikes
until i see some hard data on how many Candleabras are actually available, i'm inclined to doubt these low figures
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I think that because of the era and the nature of that card. It was a crap rare, a restricted crap rare during the time of Iron Man Ante. Not only could you not play with it in tournaments, you could only play 1 in vintage where Workshop was restricted also. So it was total junk and tossed out. No one kept them. Do you hang on to your Mayeal's Arias because they will be worth something someday? Nah, you toss them in the trashcan or to the kids. It's unplayable, untradeable crap. That was Candelabra back then.
During Iron Man ante it was fun to play decks full of crap you didn't want from your trade folder. So we would make decks full of junk rares no one cared about and play Iron Man. How ever many life points you could shove the other person past 0, that's how many cards you got to shred from their deck. You got to go into the deck and pick too. I can attest for around a hundred Candelabras shredded just from myself alone. It was a favorite since no one cared about it and it wasn't worth anything.
Poor Candelabras were so hated. Guess people shouldn't have been casting all those Workshops into Juggernauts and Su Chis to get it knocked out of tournaments.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
When I scoured the internet for the card, SCG was out of stock, there were about 2 playsets on ebay available, and 2-3 copies elsewhere. Of course sellers went pouring in, but I would approximate there were only about 5 playsets sold each month. From January to April that's a miniscule 20 playsets. At this rate, it'll take a year or so before 250 gets circulated. I strongly doubt the availability outside of the states, this is where a big chunk of that number is coming from.
As for the big payday, it has come for me and I just sold my extra copies, being not as greedy as SCG.:tongue:
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
I think that because of the era and the nature of that card. It was a crap rare, a restricted crap rare during the time of Iron Man Ante. Not only could you not play with it in tournaments, you could only play 1 in vintage where Workshop was restricted also. So it was total junk and tossed out. No one kept them. Do you hang on to your Mayeal's Arias because they will be worth something someday? Nah, you toss them in the trashcan or to the kids. It's unplayable, untradeable crap. That was Candelabra back then.
that wasn't my experience at all
Candelabra was recognized as a very powerful card - hence the restricting - and within the set it was defo. top five (in no particular order)
factory
workshop
archaeologist
candelabra
coffin
(i'm probably forgetting something - oh strip mine, until reprinting and maybe colossus)
anyway, people weren't throwing their candelabras away, Argothian Pixies yes, candelabra no
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Yeah, Candelabras were never crap rares. They sure weren't $250, but you couldn't pick them up in dollar bins.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Mana drain is a niche card, it's just a better counterspell which isn't even played. Do you actually thing it would approach the power level of FoW? it would just be a cool tool to use in certain decks. I think it actually might be what control decks need to help with their issues in legacy, though combo decks would love it as much if not more. Countering a FoW would lead to some nice colorless juice, but what besides that is a card youll expect to counter and give you a ton of mana?
Also I doubt it would come close to the price of tabernacle, which i believe is the most expensive card in legacy (if it isn't I am very curious as to what is)
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
perm
Mana drain is a niche card, it's just a better counterspell which isn't even played. Do you actually thing it would approach the power level of FoW? it would just be a cool tool to use in certain decks. I think it actually might be what control decks need to help with their issues in legacy, though combo decks would love it as much if not more. Countering a FoW would lead to some nice colorless juice, but what besides that is a card youll expect to counter and give you a ton of mana?
Also I doubt it would come close to the price of tabernacle, which i believe is the most expensive card in legacy (if it isn't I am very curious as to what is)
You've obviously never played with Mana Drain otherwise you'd never say something so patently absurd. Mana Drain is one of the most brutal tempo swings in the game. The price of Mana Drain would skyrocket if it was unbanned in Legacy. You don't need to counter Fireblasts and Force of Wills to punish your opponent for playing Magic: the Gathering.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Mana Drain's ability just pushes it over the edge of being playable, which is more than any other 2cc counter in the entire format can say. If you want to play counterspells in legacy, you need to either have it be 1cc or free. I am not going to lose sleep over people having their ad nauseums or tendrils countered and someone getting 4-5 mana.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Counter their Ad Naus/Ill-Gotten Gains/Infernal Tutor ASAP, don't wait till they cast Tendrils, it'll kill you.
