All B/R update speculation.

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Originally Posted by menace13

Some of the most nonsensical bullshit I've ever heard on this forum. Sorry, but your Brainstorm quotient isn't even used by the DCI on any card nor will it ever be. They look at winning deck lists. Evidenced by every past banning.

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If 100% of the decks in a tournament run Brainstorm, then winning with Brainstorm is as meaningless as it is to win with basic island.

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Originally Posted by nedleeds

Why? 'True Staple' isn't a ban criteria. It's up there with 'Pillar of the Format', 'Skill Intensive', 'Skill Tester', 'Go play modern'.

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You wouldn't ONLY look at tenure. You would look at several criteria of which tenure would be a part. Not looking at tenure causes knee-jerk reactions like Mental Misstep and potentially now Treasure Cruise too. The toxicity of a card becomes more evident when you use time series analysis. It helps remove guesswork from the equation by giving more statistical rigor / empirical support.

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Originally Posted by bruizar

If 100% of the decks in a tournament run Brainstorm, then winning with Brainstorm is as meaningless as it is to win with basic island.

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So what? That's 100% placing Brainstorm decks, and that's what Wizards cares about.

@Barook: Again, correlation and causation are two different things. Maybe it's because Brainstorm is too good; maybe it's because people just LIKE to play blue in eternal formats. There is no way to tell this with certainty. It's entirely subjective. If WOTC want to ban a card that's as iconic for eternal as Brainstorm, at least they should provide good analysis and support the argumentation with statistical tests, unless WOTC actively WANTS to incite the entire community.

EDIT:

Let's assume for instance that 100% of legacy players play brainstorm
Let's assume that 100% of legacy players do so because they love playing the card (having options is more fun than having no options!)
Let's assume that WOTC will ban Brainstorm.

Is this a net positive for the game/players? No! Why take away something that people like? IF these assumptions largely hold true, than that means that Brainstorm's power is irrelevant to the question whether or not it will get banned because it holds virtual 'immunity' comparable to the cards on the reserved list.

That would mean that discussing Brainstorm as a potential card for banning is the same as discussing whether or not dual lands will be reprinted.

Let's assume for a moment that 10% of the players play mystical tutor
Let's assume for a moment that 100% of those players do so because they love the card
Let's assume that WotC ban Myst.... oh wait.

Players "liking" a card has never been a criteria for banning and never will be. Either Survival, Mystical etc... would never have been banned.
If anything, it's the opposite. When playing against a strat get deemed "unfun" it's more likely to get banned (see: every combo ban ever by WotC). And tbh i'm pretty annoyed to see 4xbrainstorm everymatch, but more than that, i'm annoyed that exist no way to actually fight the strat of mass cheap cantrips because the card deemed to hate such strategies are leap and bounds below them in powerlevel, meaning the format has no meaningful way to shift away from the dominant strat.

In circle
Forever

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Originally Posted by Ellomdian

And guess what? It will likely be won by a deck playing Demonic Tutor. And that's OK.

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Ftfy, and there goes the idea of BS being ok. People will play w/e gets them to the top, but this doesn't mean that those cards are fine and balanced.
Also, it doesn't even mean that they enjoy the game, I for one wasn't at a tournament for months and don't plan to attend one for another months or maybe years, but the mere fact that MtG is a drug is enough for me to dick around Source and/or virtually sleeve virtual Brainstorms while wasting my time with MWS.

Bandwagoning post here, since I can't play Legacy except when I travel to Premier events, my vote for brainstorm is almost entirely in theoretical argument. I haven't really seen any arguments I like about brainstorm getting banned.

While I don't give a damn about brainstorm's nostalgia in the format, I just don't see any argument for banning it. The card is definitely a skill pillar. It's one of the most flexible blue cards in the game, and the way it's played can be a huge factor in a lot of games. It's not degenerate and doesn't hurt the format. I've seen some people play poorly with brainstorm and get punished. The brainstorm lock is real. The people who get the most value out of brainstorm are those who are playing it skillfully, why ban a card that helps skilled players gain a further edge?

Playing around opposing brainstorms is also a skill that a lot of people playing fair blue decks will often take into consideration. Knowing when to counter their brainstorms to be able to answer it. Or force a play where they will use brainstorm to hide their key cards in situations like thoughtseize or v. clique plays, and you can capitalize on it with a counter to 2for1. It's also an information tool. If an opponent brainstorms at instant speed it can often mean that they are trying to protect a card in hand, or desperately seek for an answer.

It can set up plays as well, or be a nice end of turn play if you have a fetch land uncracked in play and basically recall your opponent. Of course also standard things like using it with any shuffle effect to filter your hand is an important tool.

In general I still feel there's too much reason for Legacy to keep brainstorm around. The reason it's played in such high numbers is because it's one of the most versatile cards in the format while also being very balanced for its cost. 100% of decks in a top8 might include a set of brainstorms, and that's fine because it's not the brainstorm that's getting them there in the first place.

Honestly all those arguments could conceivably be made for a number of cards sitting on the banned list.

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Originally Posted by Barook

So what? That's 100% placing Brainstorm decks, and that's what Wizards cares about.

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If that was an actual argument, Wizards would have banned Fetchlands in all formats and Tarmogoyf in Modern ... oh! .... and Mystical Tutor would be still Legacy legal!

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Originally Posted by DTC

The card is definitely a skill pillar. It's one of the most flexible blue cards in the game, and the way it's played can be a huge factor in a lot of games.

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The returns to skill on Brainstorm are vastly overstated by its proponents. While Brainstorm is an extremely versatile card, what to do with it is usually clear for the overwhelming majority of hand/game states. Demonic Tutor is a pretty versatile card too...you can grab any card in your deck! But in most cases the card to pluck from the pile is patently obvious.

Plus, it's silly to discuss the "skill levels" of cards, anyway. Cards aren't hard to play, decks and formats are. And looking at things from this level, Brainstorm tends to remove just as much, if not (in all likelihood) more "skill points" out of the format as it brings in. Consider:

-In a format without Brainstorm, deck construction becomes a much more interesting affair. Shells that rely upon cantrips don't have one clear best choice in Brainstorm, and have tougher decisions to make. Preordain versus Ponder is going to be a tough decision in many 75s, which often may depend on the meta. Decks that need a lot of cantrips are forced to dig deep into the back catalogue; oldies like Portent and Predict could become relevant, or a sly player's super secret tech. Currently, Brainstorm simply muscles them ot of the format...it's simply [i]so[/] much better than it's "peers".

Not to mention a lot of the more greedy manabases become untenable, forcing those playing archetypes like U/x/y Tempo to make the choice between more colors or more consistency.

-Discard actually becomes a serious factor in the metagame, forcing adaptation around it. Not only will players actually have to learn how to play around discard (in a ways that don't involve tapping an Island and putting two cards on top of their deck), but it makes deckbuilding, sideboarding, and metagaming more interesting. Players will be forced to consider anti-discard measures rather than having them as an auto-4-of in every deck with Blue.

-The ability to evaluate opening hands and mulligan becomes a much more important skill. Brainstorm allows for stupid keeps, as it can essentially swap out 3 cards in hand, making the art of the mulligan a less necessary discipline to train in.


All in all, Brainstorm's removal would make for a much more skill-intensive Legacy format than the current one, testing player's deckbuilding, metagaming, and play skills more than the one where 75% of the field jams 4x Swiss Army Spell into their lists without question. This argument is also a lot more concrete than one that maintains that because Brainstorm can do a lot of things, there are necessarily difficult decisions in a majority of situations; the stance adopted by many Brainstorm proponents.

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Originally Posted by Jamaican Zombie Legend

stuff.

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+1

I can agree with pretty much everything you said. The only thing you missed is that part of the appeal of an eternal format is power level. Why play vintage when you can't play with SOLOMOXEN? Why play legacy when you can't play with Brainstorm? Modern offers a less competitive environment where there's a lot of room for innovation given the fact that reprints are so abundant in the last few years (namely, 10x rav duals 10x fetch)

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Originally Posted by Jamaican Zombie Legend

The returns to skill on Brainstorm are vastly overstated by its proponents. While Brainstorm is an extremely versatile card, what to do with it is usually clear for the overwhelming majority of hand/game states. Demonic Tutor is a pretty versatile card too...you can grab any card in your deck! But in most cases the card to pluck from the pile is patently obvious.

Plus, it's silly to discuss the "skill levels" of cards, anyway. Cards aren't hard to play, decks and formats are. And looking at things from this level, Brainstorm tends to remove just as much, if not (in all likelihood) more "skill points" out of the format as it brings in. Consider:

-In a format without Brainstorm, deck construction becomes a much more interesting affair. Shells that rely upon cantrips don't have one clear best choice in Brainstorm, and have tougher decisions to make. Preordain versus Ponder is going to be a tough decision in many 75s, which often may depend on the meta. Decks that need a lot of cantrips are forced to dig deep into the back catalogue; oldies like Portent and Predict could become relevant, or a sly player's super secret tech. Currently, Brainstorm simply muscles them ot of the format...it's simply [i]so[/] much better than it's "peers".

Not to mention a lot of the more greedy manabases become untenable, forcing those playing archetypes like U/x/y Tempo to make the choice between more colors or more consistency.

-Discard actually becomes a serious factor in the metagame, forcing adaptation around it. Not only will players actually have to learn how to play around discard (in a ways that don't involve tapping an Island and putting two cards on top of their deck), but it makes deckbuilding, sideboarding, and metagaming more interesting. Players will be forced to consider anti-discard measures rather than having them as an auto-4-of in every deck with Blue.

-The ability to evaluate opening hands and mulligan becomes a much more important skill. Brainstorm allows for stupid keeps, as it can essentially swap out 3 cards in hand, making the art of the mulligan a less necessary discipline to train in.


All in all, Brainstorm's removal would make for a much more skill-intensive Legacy format than the current one, testing player's deckbuilding, metagaming, and play skills more than the one where 75% of the field jams 4x Swiss Army Spell into their lists without question. This argument is also a lot more concrete than one that maintains that because Brainstorm can do a lot of things, there are necessarily difficult decisions in a majority of situations; the stance adopted by many Brainstorm proponents.

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Hilarious. People will just run Preordain AND Ponder (AND Gitaxian Probe) for the same number of card selection and digging like they did with Brainstorm to support their Delvers! Look at fucking Modern which has a 44% penetration of UR Delver atm just because how stupid Delver + TC is with plenty of Cantrips to chain together. The only thing you won't see anymore are greedy, conditional cards because you can't shuffle them away on demand. There the deckbuilding will be a factor, but other than that, we already know that Delver just works perfect without Brainstorm to setup the flip.

It really ain't so hard to beat delver of secrets; at least in UR Delver (which uses cruise). Sudden Shock, Abrupt Decay or Volcanic Fallout are ways to beat it. Once you kill their clock, you just make land drops until all their tempo counters become irrelevant. If Delver decks are the problem here, people should just start playing with uncounterable removal. Afraid of Young Pyromancer tokens? Sudden Shock + Volcanic Fallout. Afraid of Monastery Swiftspear? Sudden Shock when you have priority.

A deck running Spell Pierce, Force of Will, and a bunch of cantrips with super fragile threats becomes a pile when you can remove the creatures without a way to interact with you.

rug delver is much harder because of goyf and mongoose, but they dont run TC.


If 44% of the field is UR Delver, then just board in 15 hate cards. You'll have a 44% chance of getting a bye every round.

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Originally Posted by bruizar

It really ain't so hard to beat delver of secrets; at least in UR Delver (which uses cruise). Sudden Shock, Abrupt Decay or Volcanic Fallout are ways to beat it. Once you kill their clock, you just make land drops until all their tempo counters become irrelevant. If Delver decks are the problem here, people should just start playing with uncounterable removal. Afraid of Young Pyromancer tokens? Sudden Shock + Volcanic Fallout. Afraid of Monastery Swiftspear? Sudden Shock when you have priority.

A deck running Spell Pierce, Force of Will, and a bunch of cantrips with super fragile threats becomes a pile when you can remove the creatures without a way to interact with you.

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Then they cantrip into the next creature, because cantrips and the threats are so cheap. If hating out Delver is soooooo easy, I wonder why the fucking creature/strategy just top 8s in large numbers everywhere for years.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Then they cantrip into the next creature, because cantrips and the threats are so cheap. If hating out Delver is soooooo easy, I wonder why the fucking creature/strategy just top 8s in large numbers everywhere for years.

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The creature strategy used to be about 2 for 1's (Bloodbraid Elf, Snapcaster Mage, Baleful Strix, Stoneforge Mystic, Lingering Souls, Shardless Agent) and those that could survive lightning bolt and / or swords to plowshares (Nimble Mongoose, Tarmogoyf, Geist of Saint Traft). Now it's about toughness 1 and 2 creatures. Those are easily hated out.

Let them cantrip (e.g. durdle at this stage) while you make your land drops. Tempo needs an early clock to win. Once you have enough land drops, they only have Force of Will, which you by then can probably force a decent threat through.

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Originally Posted by Jamaican Zombie Legend

stuff

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Let's not forget the simple decision of whether to cantrip or to keep counter mana up.

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Originally Posted by Lemnear

Then they cantrip into the next creature, because cantrips and the threats are so cheap. If hating out Delver is soooooo easy, I wonder why the fucking creature/strategy just top 8s in large numbers everywhere for years.

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It's all about dat shell :cool:. Good luck explaining it to the masses!

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Originally Posted by Echelon

It's all about dat shell :cool:. Good luck explaining it to the masses!

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The shell reduces variance. Less variance = more wins. All you can do at this point is either banning the shell and turn Legacy into quasi Modern, accept Status quo or chop the head off of the Hydra in terms of threats and let pilots of the shell work for their victories.

I'm annoyed by the ever same bullshit of the ever same crowd complaining about the blue cantrip shell, combo and why Loam/Goblins/Zoo are no longer top performers.

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Originally Posted by Gheizen64

And tbh i'm pretty annoyed to see 4xbrainstorm everymatch, but more than that, i'm annoyed that exist no way to actually fight the strat of mass cheap cantrips because the card deemed to hate such strategies are leap and bounds below them in powerlevel, meaning the format has no meaningful way to shift away from the dominant strat.

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There is no strategy of mass cheap cantrips. Many Legacy decks of all colors play 5-10 blue cantrips for consistency, and this is great for the format. Legacy has the best blue cantrips of all formats, and Brainstorm happens to be the best of them. Brainstorm is a huge part of the reason why many Modern players are tempted by Legacy, and some of them do in fact make the jump these days.

To be fair, U/R SwiftCruise do go completely overboard with cantrips. That deck is a bit different, because it abuses the spell casting triggers and Cruise.

Chalice, Spirit of the Labyrinth, Thalia, and Eidolon are four high power Legacy cards that see play precisely because they punish cantrips severely. The cost is that you don't get to play cantrips of your own, and therefore have to find other ways to increase consistency. And no, that is not easy. Not easy at all. But what you call annoying, I call a strategical challenge.

One way to increase consistency (a little) is to go mono color.
Death and Taxes and monored Burn are both fairly well positioned right now, because they can effectively punish the Brainstorm/Probe decks.

I enjoy playing with Brainstorm. I enjoy playing against Brainstorm when they play it correctly, and even more when they (most often) don't.
And, even though I know it is extremely difficult, I enjoy figuring out new ways to play without cantrips and punish decks that do.

I am baffled by some of the post in this thread. I really don't know what your problem is.
Are you absolutely sure that you still have the capacity to enjoy the game, even if your perceived "annoying" power card would be gone?

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Originally Posted by bruizar

A deck running Spell Pierce, Force of Will, and a bunch of cantrips with super fragile threats becomes a pile when you can remove the creatures without a way to interact with you..

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Indeed.

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Originally Posted by M+1

I call a strategical challenge.

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I call it playing with worse cards.

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Originally Posted by M+1

Death and Taxes and monored Burn are both fairly well positioned right now, because they can effectively punish the Brainstorm/Probe decks.

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So well positioned

http://tcdecks.net/tierdecks.php


If you have the cards and don't some some love affair with a crap deck, there are 0 reasons to not be playing brainstorm if you want to maximize your chances to win.

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Originally Posted by testing32

If you have the cards and don't some some love affair with a crap deck, there are 0 reasons to not be playing brainstorm if you want to maximize your chances to win.

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Elves?