Keep it up, man. You're a natural when it comes to streaming, even if you don't realize it.
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Haha, Sorry, It seems like I derailed the thread; I don't need suggestions to beat the deck. He plays 3 Jace, Infinite man lands, four basics, Standstill, Deed, Decay and Slaughter Games. I just take my loss, and move on with my life. I'm not fucking my board up to beat him. Was just a little rant, as losing, even with a massive advantage does nothing against slaughter games :D
Just saw some of the stream; You said in the volcanic Island Delver matchup, that you aren't that fond of Counterbalance.
That seems extremely unconventional, at least in game 1 where they don't have any pyroblast, as I often found the matchup come down to you being a two-card combo deck (Terminus > Counterbalance) and usually win with whatever. Why do you think Balance isn't as strong?
The game plan doesn't revolve around counterbalance, it revolves around terminus. Yes, counterbalance is overall great vs the deck but not impactful vs a creature heavy board. I was commentating with him for the first 2 matches and that's a conclusion we reach for the most part. Once we get a terminus to resolve, then yes, counterbalance is fine, but it's difficult to find a place to cast it when getting beaten down and vs. soft counters.
Exactly; That's why I said it often comes down to being a combo. You resolve Terminus, which is much easier now they don't play stifle as much due to us having a stronger manabase, and then resolvning Counterbalance afterwards. You need it in order to stabilise against the Lightning Bolts they always have, I've found.
3 Swords to Plowshares and 4 Creatures from their side does make the matchup much better, though...
I was watching and commenting a bunch in the chat (Whitefaces), very enjoyable and it was good to see you guys pushing Predict as hard as possible to find its sweet spots.
Grixis has flipped how you need to play the Delver MU from the old plan vs RUG. In the past I'd advocate trying to drop a CB before Terminus while floating a one to counter the stifle, but with the decline of said card I agree with Quasim0ff in that you're looking to assemble this one-two punch. Jace and Snapcaster are just too fragile to base any winning gameplan around, and a good Grixis player will slog through Terminus and save FoW for Entreat or Mentor. Therapy can be really tough though, it's a very tricky matchup.
I actually disagree with your last assessment on the matchup. I think Grixis delver is the easiest of the Delver matchups, at least game 1. Counterbalance is actually fairly easy to stick, and Terminus just wrecks them, as it's much easier to set up, when you aren't pressures by Stifle and Hymn's.
I also like how you just try to test out how aggressive your curve can be with predict; I'd like a 21st land over the 4th I think, if your plan is Entreat.
Grixis after DTT ban?
Drop a Staticaster, play Pyroclasm
Look for Entreat or Mentor. Pretty much win from there.
Counterbalance just helps to resolve/protect these pieces much more than to counter his threaths..
Counterbalance floating 1 is pretty much an autowin and it's the easist cc to have on top.
Mentor + Staticaster are all what you need normally.
Pyroclasm/Staticaster are pretty much synonim for Terminus against Grixis but they are not affected by Stifle and Staticaster gets over Pierce.
Anyway you should NOT start with CB in the opening 7 as a good rule against black decks.
And from there you are pretty much favoured
AnziD is testing the 4th predict, see how far we can go with it =P
I'm on a 21 land 2 predict list w/ entreat personally.
I disagree with Grixis Delver being the easiest. UWR is still the easiest, but I think you have to still respect stifle from grixis. We played around it the entire match and likely died because we didn't get the read that if he had cabal therapy and other cards, he likely had to cut stifle somewhere.
I definitely think that the games were a lot more close due to some incorrect sequencing.
Sure, UWR is easier - I don't really consider that a real deck, as it doesn't really perform (and get played at all, actually).
I think, what makes Grixis better is the ability to actually stick a balance, much easier than versus RUG as well as balance not getting removed, like versus BUG.
Sure, you gotta respect Stifle, but he didn't play, at all, like he stifle at any point in the match, which means there's a strong likely hood that he doesn't have it.
I know, he's testing 4 predict, and I love that he's doing it :p Predict is incredibly strong, but 20 lands is just so few - It makes sense he's on 1 jace then. I've personally been fond of 2 jace/1 entreat with 2 predicts and 20 lands.
if Chalice starts to be spammed everywhere 3 Predict will become pretty much a Staple.
I suppose we're cutting Ponders for it
Also Spell Snare is now mandatory for Turn1 Chalice
If you reduce the number of t1 cantrips available, predict becomes significantly worse. I don't think it's ever going to be correct to cut ponders for predicts unless specifically against chalice of the void.
Post board games vs. chalice decks, it's defensible, but never do it otherwise, that's almost always going to be wrong.
I'm currently testing a 4 Predict list with 19 lands, with the MD configuration of cards that actually win the game being 3 Snapcasters and 2 Mentors, as well as another Mentor and 1 Cavern of Souls in the SB.
So far it feels good, I took the deck to 2 smaller local events and finished 3-1 (loss was my stupitiy and mulligan) and 4-0, so it performs reasonable well. I have the cards online as well, but currently I'm playing Eldrazi Stompy there.
I have another tournament coming up this weekend, and I expect there to be quite a few Shardless and 4C Loam decks, so I might switch it up for this week. I'm going try to play a Keranos for this meta in the SB, but this isn't doable on 19 Lands, so I might try to squeeze a basic mountain into the maindeck.
Balance is definitely powerful in the Volcanic Island matchup, but there are a few reasons I don't think its the end-all-be-all. The problem is that these Delver decks can be really, really fast, and for this reason Young Pyromancer, Gurmag Angler, and Nimble Mongoose terrify me. While CounterTop in play is great at controlling the rest of the game vs Delver G1, it (obviously) doesn't do a great job at solving what's already on the board. Depending on my opponent's start, I could be dead as early as turn 4 or 5. So logically it makes sense that my utmost priority is clearing the board so I can "buy" more draw steps, which is important because I know the more draw steps I have, the more favored the game will be for me. If I spend that time setting up a CounterTop lock instead, I am minimizing the amount of effort I can dedicate to clearing the board during the early turns. One of the worst feelings in the world is dying to a Young Pyromancer and its army of tokens with CounterTop in play because you couldn't find your Terminus or your Terminus got countered in a way that you could have played around (searching for your own countermagic, setting up mana to pay for taxes, etc). Additionally, these Volcanic Island Delver decks are now starting to add green for Abrupt Decay, which is unfathomably annoying. It doesn't help that Gurmag Angler is a 7 drop and Young Pyromancer is one card that requires Terminus as an answer. That being said, I want to clarify that I still think Counterbalance is still good, as its late game effect is really hard to beat and buys us a lot of time to Jace, Entreat, or Mentor our opponent. But, I think its value in the early early game is misleading in that its very easy to overvalue and lose sight of what really matters. In fact, given the way the meta has shifted lately with all this Eldrazi nonsense, I'm currently testing out 3 Counterbalance in the main, as vs fair matchups Predict is powerful enough to win the game on its own.