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I would be very interested if you are willing to share your results.
As for the desired probability of casting cabal therapy on turn 1, I'd say it should be between 70%-80%, so that it is reliable against combo decks and when i can't cast it i at least have the possibility of going turn one lackey.
Of course I an willing to share my results. I'm the guy with the fancy apple-talk in his Signature.
Will write a summary soon, probably on the weekend.
I don't think it is urgent to cast Cabal Therapy as quick as Turn 1. Most combo decks cantrips on their first two turns. It is better for us to use Cabal Therapy once the combo player has a more developed hand so we can more accurately predict their combo pieces. It is also more important for us to play threats on our first two turns, namely Lackey, Vial, and Piledriver, to present a clock. Playing Cabal Therapy on the back of MWM the same turn is also better. Against ANT, discard spells are really not that impressive when not coupled with grave hate like Relic of Progenitus, DRS, or Surgical Extraction.
Assuming no mulligan and on play:
With 8 black sources, it gives you a 65% chance on opening hand, and a 90% chance by turn 8.
With 9 black sources, it gives you a 70% chance on opening hand, and a 90% chance by turn 6.
With 10 black sources, it gives you a 74% chance on opening hand, and a 90% chance by turn 5.
With 11 black sources, it gives you a 78% chance on opening hand, and get a 90% chance by turn 4.
With 12 black sources, it gives you a 80% chance on opening hand, and get a 90% chance by turn 3.
This is why I like Warping Wail in the Classic List. We already have twelve colorless sources. I currently have three copies in the main, and contemplating having the 4th on my side. The card is so flexible. I also like that we have a more versatile hate in Warping Wail against combo than playing specific hate like REB, Ashen Rider, and Mindbreak Trap.
Another reason why I think Thalia has been a successful combo hate is because we normally have 15-16 cards to put it in play with (4 Vials, 4 CoS, 7-8 Plateau+Fetches), giving us more consistent early plays, and is also threat.
Hi all I been playing the starcity jund goblins list wondering if the mono red build is better to fight the eldrazi whats the opinion of the people on this thread?
Blood moon, magus of the moon, and Krenko are all really good against eldrazi. There's no reason why you couldn't run the moon effects in the jund build board against eldrazi (you don't really need your splash colors in that matchup unless you were also playing cabal therapy or something). The mono red build handles these cards a little better but ultimately it's only a slight difference and I'd go with the jund list with an updated sideboard (I assume you meant my list from the Atlanta classic/VS video) because it's more flexible against the rest of the fieldQuote:
Originally Posted by deathdealer
Hey fellow Chieftains,
as promised, I’m dropping a few lines on the subject of manafixing.
GoblinSettler was so kind to post an article on this topic (reference).
tl;dr (I recommend to read the article first)
The author states that, in order to cast Thoughtseize “reliably” (in this article, this is defined as a chance of 90%) on turn 1, you need 12 black manasources in a 60-cards deck.
Very recently I approached the topic myself (not knowing this article) in a similar way – only did I choose scenarios that are relevant to our deck. Before I explain my approach, let me address three points in which my approach differs from the one explained in the above article:
1.
The math and simulations behind that are based on certain assumptions, the most important being mulligan decisions. As the author approaches the topic from a general perspective (meaning: he wants to apply results to any format, any deck, any card, any manabase), the rules for taking mulligan he defines (quote: “We mulligan any 7-card hand with 0, 1, 6, or 7 lands, any 6-card hand with 0,1, 5, or 6 lands, any 5-card hand with 0 or 5 lands, and we keep all other hands” ) are obviously somewhat different from the rules we would define for our deck.
2.
His article focuses on the example of casting Thoughtseize on T1 – which is not 100% relevant for our deck. Sometimes we want to cast certain cards at some point between turn X and Y
3.
This is a minor one, but it makes sense to think of the results in “drawsteps”, not in “turns”. Example: Stating that I can cast Cabal Therapy with a 92% probability after 1 drawstep tells you that this is either: turn1 on the draw or turn2 on the play. Also, since part of the exercise is to find out how additional cards will increase your odds of casting a card by turn X, comparing results between number of cards drawn reveals the effectiveness of catnips, cycling and the like.
That being said, the article is great and interesting and it's core messages work for general deckbuilding. In fact, the results I present a little later down the road are not much different from the numbers you get out of the article. Still, I wanted to address these points upfront to show the difference between the approaches.
Okay, let’s start.
Recently I was wondering how different numbers of black manasources affect the likelihood of casting Cabal Therapy. To address this question I wrote a small script in Python that simulates the following steps:
1. Draw hand with 7 cards from a decklist (see below)
2. Check if it keeps the hand. The program keeps the hand if at least one of the following conditions is met:
a) Lackey in hand AND 2 or more lands in hand, one of which is red.
b) Vial in hand AND 1 or more lands in hand AND 1 or more Goblins in hand
c) Cabal Therapy in hand AND 1 or more B/R-manasources in hand AND 1 or more Goblins with manacost < 3 in hand.
3. If it doesn’t KEEP this hand, it takes mulligan and repeats steps 1 and 2 with -1 card in hand.
4. When it has drawn a hand that it KEEPs, it draws X cards (X= number of drawsteps you want to simulate)
5. It evaluates the hand and takes one of three decisions
a) Cabal Therapy was drawn and could be cast after X drawsteps
b) Cabal Therapy was drawn but could not be cast after X drawsteps
c) Cabal Therapy wasn’t drawn after X drawsteps
Decklist used for simulation
12 BR-Sources (Fetchlands, Badlands)
4 Cavern of Souls
1 Mountain
5 colorless Lands
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Aether Vial
3 Mogg War Marshal
4 Goblin Piledriver
2 Skirk Prospector
3 Cabal Therapy
17 other Goblins that are not relevant for this simulation
This whole process is repeated for an N amount of times. Results after N=100 runs with X=0 drawsteps could look like this:
Cabal Therapy was drawn and could be cast in 25 games
Cabal Therapy was drawn but could not be cast in 3 games
Cabal Therapy wasn’t drawn in 72 games
An example of how to interpret these results:
Cabal Therapy was castable in 25 games out of 28 (89,3%) where it was drawn at all.
This was just an example to demonstrates what number we are actually looking at, and which numbers can be manipulated to compare results. We could do the following:
- Run more than N=100 trials
- Repeat the simulation with more/less BR-sources (less is closer to reality though)
- repeat the simulation with more than X=0 drawsteps
- define different/more/less rules for taking mulligans.
In reality I did the following:
- simulate N=1,000,000 trials per cell (for each scenario
- repeat the simulation with 7,8,9…,12 BR sources (and 6,5,4,…,1 Mountains respectively)
- repeat the simulation with X=0,1,2,3,4 drawsteps
And here are the results (the % reflect games where Cabal Therapy was actually drawn)
0 drawsteps 1 drawstep 2 drawsteps 3 drawsteps 4 drawsteps 12 BR sources 90% 92% 93% 95% 96% 11 BR sources 87% 89% 91% 93% 94% 10 BR sources 84% 86% 88% 90% 92% 9 BR sources 80% 82% 85% 87% 89% 8 BR sources 76% 78% 81% 83% 86% 7 BR sources 70% 73% 76% 79% 91%
As you can see, we can draw the same conclusion as the article that I cited in the beginning:
“In order to cast Cabal Therapy with a chance of 90% on turn 1, you need 12 black manasources in a 60-cards deck.”
I did not quote the word “reliably” here on purpose, because definitions may vary. While the article above needed to define what he meant by “reliable” for the sake of the article and its message, I want to invite you to find out yourself what “reliable” means in this context. It is obviously not healthy for the deck to run 8 fetches + 4 Badlands (or stated differently: only 1 basicland) only to support 3 Cabal Therapy in the maindeck. Also, we don’t want to cast Cabal Therapy in every match, and even less so on turn 1. This means that we can drop a few % and still call a manabase “reliable” in casting Cabal Therapy – but what that actually means is something you really need to find out for yourself. There are a lot of things to take into account when making decisions like this, included – but not limited to: matchups/meta-game, other B cards in your deck, alternative ways of casting the card, impact of the card at turn X in the game. The list is long and the matter is complex. I want to point out that you won’t find the right balance in mana just by looking at a crosstab. You need some experience, a point of reference and ultimately you need to interpret the results to embed them into your deckbuilding.
So, that is all I have to say for now. Questions and comments are – as always appreciated.
Additionally, I’m happy to
(1) share the Python script that does these simulations
and/or
(2) accept “commissions” – in case you want to know the numbers for some other scenarios, but don’t know how to work the script.
- GL
So I have decided to get back to basics and run Mono Red Goblins. I did some testing this weekend against Eldrazi and Shardless BUG.
Notes on Eldrazi:
So this matchup is actually quite interesting. I found that Wasteland and Port are allstars here. Also it's fun having Lackey intimidate Thought-Knot Seer. Since the Eldrazi deck is super explosive and not very good in the long game, delaying them by Wasting their land sources every turn is more efficient than playing spells. I found that I would mulligan for Aether Vial, Port, and Wasteland. These three cards knock Eldrazi down.
My sideboard runs Ensnaring Bridge and Lightning Crafter Combo. So being able to drop a Ensnaring Bridge and empty my hand basically lets Goblins win the game. When you swing out with a bunch of 1/1's when they can't swing with their two or three big guys, it leads to super hurtful games.
Decklist:
Creatures
4x Goblin Lackey
4x Goblin Warchief
4x Goblin Matron
4x Goblin Ringleader
2x Skirk Prospector
2x Goblin Piledriver
2x Mogg War Marshal
1x Goblin Chieftain
1x Goblin Settler
1x Kiki-Jiki, Mirror Breaker
1x Goblin Sharpshooter
1x Siege-Gang Commander
1x Gempalm Incinerator
1x Stingscourger
1x Tuktuk Scrapper
1x Krenko, Mob Boss
Spells
4x Aether Vial
1x Tarfire
1x Warping Wail
Lands
4x Wasteland
3x Rishadan Port
3x Cavern of Souls
2x Ancient Tomb
4x Arid Mesa
1x Pendelhaven
6x Mountain
Sideboard:
1x Pithing Needle
1x Lightning Crafter
1x Gempalm Incinerator
2x Warping Wail
2x Ensnaring Bridge
2x Pyrokinesis
3x Chalice of the Void
3x Blood Moon
Notes on Deck:
Gempalm is very good right now. Lots of fair decks in the meta and Gempalm can kill Reality Smasher because huzzah activated abilities.
Lightning Crafter combo is really cute in the sideboard. If you are playing a long game where you are locking them out with Ensnaring Bridge, this just throws it over the wall.
Warping Wail is amazing. I countered Maelstrom Pulse targeting Krenko as well Toxic Deluge. It also isn't the worst card to play in the Burn matchup which is often terrible for us (I always end up against all the red decks in tournaments :rolleyes:). Exiling Mother of Runes is also really cool :cool:.
Ancient Tomb is strictly there for enabling quick sideboard games with turn 2 Blood Moon, Ensnaring Bridge and turn 1 Chalice. It also helps out by getting out 2x Vials on turn one (I lived the dream!). Also Goblin Matron turn 2, Goblin Ringleader turn 3, and Siege Gang turn 4 is also quite nice.
Pendelhaven is cute when you get it, but otherwise meh. It is fun to swing in with lackey and see DRS sweat.
In conclusion, Mono Red seems really good right now. The black splash, though very good, seems to take away from the deck and there aren't a lot of sideboard cards coming for splash from the lists I've seen.
I can confirm your impression of the Eldrazi MU.
Things I learned in yesterday's testing session:
1. Wasteland and Vial are your best cards in the MU. I'm not running any Ports but I'm positive that they will be excellent as well
2. The outcome of the match is heavily infnuences by who goes first.
3. Eldrazi has weak/shaky hands more often than we do.
4. The MU isn't very skill - intense or even exciting to play. It is usually very clear what they hold in their hand (you can read that from how much mana they have and what they cast last turn - also their Handsize is usually small). E.g. when they have 4 mana available (one of which is eye of ugin) and they are casting Endless One, it is pretty obvious that they dont have Thoughtknot Seer, nor Eldrazi Mimic in hand, because there is no reason not to cast these (instead).
I think this is a 50/50 MU. With Ports you will probably gain additional %s - I dont think that any SV card other than Blood Moon can significantly improve that (taking their SB cards into consideration as well)
Played against Eldrazi a couple of weeks ago during a tournament (went 2-3, losing against 2 Combo decks and BUG Delver -he had it all-) , and can confirm the MU is 50/50:
G1: I waste him out the game.
G2: he waste me out of the game.
G3: I waste/ port him out of the game.
Also relevant: Pyrokinesis, which surprised me. Chump, play Knesis. Or just clear the path.
The MU feels heavely favorate towards the player who draws his/ her first disruption.
EDIT: I boarded Blood Moon, but he took it from my hand. It is a blow-out, that's for sure, if I just had the chance to cast it.
Weekly Tournament Report
Result: 3-1
List
4 Aether Vial
4 Goblin Lackey
2 Skirk Prospector
3 Mogg War Marshal
4 Goblin Warchief
2 Goblin Sharpshooter
3 Earwig Squad
4 Goblin Matron
4 Goblin Ringleader
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
3 Tarfire
2 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Warren Weirding
4 Wasteland
4 Cavern of Souls
3 Badlands
4 Snow-Covered Mountain
3 Arid Mesa
1 Bloodstained Mire
2 Wooded Foothills
1 Pendelhaven
1 Karakas
Sideboard (14)
4 Chalice of the Void
3 Cabal Therapy
2 Relic of Progenitus
1 Surgical Extraction
2 Blood Moon
1 Pithing Needle
1 Tuktuk Scrapper
*Disclaimer* I knew what all my opponents were playing, and I'm pretty sure they knew I was on Goblins. This of course affected my mulligan decisions.
R1 PoxLoam 2-0
G1 I keep a hand without a one drop because it has the curve of MWM>EWS. EWS strips my opponent of his Dark Depths, Nether Spirit, and Pernicious Deed, leaving him with very little action (only four Mishra's Factories left as wincons).
G2 I play a t3 Matron and have to decide between getting EWS or Ringleader. My hand at this point doesn't have much gas, making me want Ringleader. However, with EWS I can end the game very quickly (like G1). I also know he brought in E-Plague, which I likely wont beat in the long run, and therefore want to get rid of as soon as possible. I go with EWS since I also have removal (waste + gempalm) for his blockers. This forces my opponent to Toxic Deluge for one, clearing the board. He gets a Lily online, but other than that none of us do much. I have a Blood Moon in hand, but he has Deed. After a while I take out his Lily, he pops his deed. I deploy Blood Moon and draw a SE for his Nether Spirit.
R2 Grixis Reanimator 2-0
G1 my opponent reanimates Iona @red on t2. I have Karakas and he doesn't do anything else that game.
G2 he mulligans to four and I have Relic of Progenitus.
R3 Food Chain 2-1
G1 I play a t2 EWS off of Skirk Prospector. Looking through his library I see three green sources only. I gamble and exile them. The gamble pays off, and now his only source of green mana is DRS. Sadly however a Misthollow Griffin and a Vendilion Clique kill me one turn before I would have swung for lethal. There was a point this game where I had GI in hand vs my opponent's Griffin in play. I chose to cycle it EOT. With the way things played out, I might have won otherwise, as I would have had a removal for the Clique. Whether it was correct or not to cycle it obviously depends on a bunch of other factors, but I would still like to hear your general reasoning on the subject.
G2 I lead with Lackey and have double Tarfire for his two DRS:s. Lackey connects twice and I run away with the game.
G3 My opponent runs out of gas fairly quickly, and is beating me down with a Gurmag Angler and a 1/1. I have a lot of cards in hand, but lack the mana to cast them all in a timely fashion. I land a Warchief that is met by Decay, followed by a second Warchief on the following turn. Finally I incinerate the 1/1 and WW the Angler. A hand full of Matrons and Ringleaders in enough to run away with the game.
R4 AdNauseam Tendrils 0-2
G1 I keep a fast Lackey hand, and it isn't enough.
G2 I keep a hand with Lackey, Relic, some goblins and some lands. I could have mulliganed this for some disruption, but chose to keep. Would you K/M?
My t1 Lackey is delayed by a Chain of Vapor. On t2 I replay it alongside Relic. My opponent is digging furiously for the ToA, knowing full well I have EWS in my deck.
I finally get to EWS, and as expected my opponent has found the Tendrils. I figure out most of what's in his hand (Led, DR, CR, ToA, Tutor + 2 unknowns). I exile the remaining three Dark Rituals to prevent any tutor > DR shenanigans. On the following turn he plays tutor, revealing Dark Ritual and soon realize his mistake. However it doesn't matter as he drew the land for mana, and his two unknowns were Lotus Petal and Chain of Vapor, providing both mana and the storm count necessary to kill me.
Yes what would be the updates to the side board I played it in 3 smaller events so far around 20-30 people. With finishing 2nd in to and 9th in the most recent 2nd place was vs Eldrazi. Ware I did beat him game 2 with a pyrokanisis blow outQuote:
Originally Posted by goblinpiledriver
@Sandro
I would keep this Hand if a t4 kill is possible. My rule of thumb against combo ist that every piece of hate should delay them by 1 turn at least while your goal should be to kill them on turn 3. So with a piece of hate to hold them back until you can finish them on turn 4 this Hand is a keep.
Do you remember what exactly the other Goblins were and how Many lands you had in hand?
Can't remeber the rest of my hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by GoboLord
Recently in my last events i have been struggling to win against Miracles. The only matches i lost in the last two events was against Miracles wich was supposed to be a good MU. Other than Miracles i'm enjoying the deck behavior.
Could you please check my list and post your suggestions how to sideboard and what to change. I added Pithing Neddle now wich is good to shut Divining Top. I'm also thinking in splashing white to add Thalia to SB and change Relic with RiP.
Deck: Goblins http://deckstats.net/mana/m/r.gif
//Main
4 Goblin Warchief
4 Goblin Lackey
4 Goblin Ringleader
4 Goblin Matron
3 Goblin Piledriver
2 Mogg War Marshal
2 Gempalm Incinerator
1 Skirk Prospector
1 Krenko, Mob Boss
1 Goblin Chieftain
1 Goblin Sharpshooter
1 Tin Street Hooligan
1 Siege-Gang Commander
1 Stingscourger
4 Æther Vial
3 Tarfire
4 Cavern of Souls
4 Wasteland
4 Rishadan Port
4 Wooded Foothills
2 Bloodstained Mire
1 Pendelhaven
1 Taiga
3 Mountain
//Sideboard
2 Krosan Grip
3 Pyrokinesis
3 Relic of Progenitus
3 Chalice of the Void
2 Blood Moon
1 Pithing Needle
1 Tin Street Hooligan
http://i.hbtronix.de/chart_pie.png Display deck statistics
Played a couple of games vs Storm (AnT/TES hybrid) & Dredge today.
Storm preboard: 0-3
Storm postboard: 5-2
Dredge preboard: 0-3
Dredge postboard: 4-1
Highlights
I got to Sharpshooter + Prospector combo the storm player to death from 9 life.
Surgical Extraction is pretty good against Lim Dûl's Vault.
I had a game where I connected with Lackey and had the decision between putting EWS into play and leaving mana open for Relic or casting Earwig Squad. Anyway I'd have exactly lethal on the following turn. I concluded that Relic was more important since storm count would be the most deciding factor on whether or not I would die next turn, and PiF is his best way to add storm count. I was rewarded on the following turn and won.
One interesting scenario consisted of my opponent playing his third land - a volcanic island and his first nonbasic - and then casting Ponder off of an Island. Here it was actually correct to wasteland him, as even though he could simply float mana he didn't have the necessary information required to know which mana (U or R) would benefit him the most, and wastelanding here forces him to gamble. I just hadn't come across this type of scenario before, and felt as though it broadened my understanding of the game.
Thoughts
I'm not sure how to sideboard vs dredge with my current list. CotV/Therapy/Needle all have applications on the play, and can steal games on their own, but lose a lot of value after t1. EWS doesn't work well since we are so often on the defensive. On the other hand, actually getting to exile three cards is great vs them.
Sharpshooter is just so good in this matchup, and the GY-hate can slow them down a lot, buying us the time we need to establish control. This might be reason enough to include EWS over CotV/CT/Needle, as once you pop relic, you often only have a turn or two to do something relevant, and taking away all their ichorids/narcomoebas/bridges,dread returns etc is certainly that.
This matchup is very skill intensive (my opponent is by far the best dredge player I know of). There is a whole bunch of triggers to keep track of with regards to their bridges, as our deck is so very capable of dealing with them by killing of our own creatures. This can force a good dredge player to slow dredge in order to keep us from blowing them out by exiling all their bridges as one.
Cabal Therapy is one of their best cards against us. Do not underestimate it.
You can often kill of their bridges by attacking with lackey, bluffing an important creature. You can also bluff a bluff attack, letting you put a creature into play. This creates an interesting subgame in which they either make a small sacrifice or risk losing a lot.
Which version(s) of Miracles are you referring to? Despite being lumped together as one deck they often operate quite differently, and are vulnerable to different angles of attack.Quote:
Originally Posted by gfernandes
When you lose vs Miracles, why is that? For example, do you run out of gas? Get overrun by an early Mentor/Entreat etc.? Fold to hate cards such as Moat or Izzet Staticaster?
If you can answer these questions then we can work together to solve your problems.
Lost twice to the classic list with Monastery Mentor and once with the Sword of the Meek/Thopter Foundry list.
One of the matches (Monastery Mentor list) both games were very tight and he ended with 1 life.
Another match against Monastery Mentor list i lost to double Top + Monastery and control in both games.
Finally i lost the other one againt Sword of the Meek/Thopter Foundry to Humility and control.
In the end most matches were tight but all needed something extra. That's why i'm asking for some suggestions. It feels that i lack hate in the second/third games. I usually board in 3 Chalice, 2 Krosan Grip and the extra Tin Street. Since i added Neddle to SB i guess that's a board in too. Usually i side out 2 Wastelands, Stingscourge, Skirk and the rest depends on their version.
Since you are running Ports I want to point out what May be obvious: by default you should use Ports to tap for colorless mana instead of tapping opponents lands. Especially in this MU you should Focus on building up your boardposition first. Miracles is one of the few decks where we actually lose the lategame.
Second, and this might also be obvious: dont overextend. If you have 4-5 damage on the board you can leaning back and sandbag Ringleader and Matron for the post-combat mainphase of the turn when they cast Terminus.
Third, make sure that your Dudes are not countered. E.g. let's say you resolved Aether Vial on turn 1 put of a Mountain. Then on you next turn you play another Mountain and you hold Piledriver in your hand. In this situation you should not cast Piledriver but wait until next turn to put it into play off Vial. At some point when they fired off some cantrips and you are fairly certain that they just put that Force of Will back on top, you can start casting creatures again (by that time you have usually found at least one Caverns anyway).
Regardless of Miracles being a positive MU, iit still leaves room for misplays. Give it a few more Spins and you will ultimately get there and feel comfortable with the MU.
/Edit: I want to add that you list is equipped to beat Miracles, no need to change too much.
Thanks for the advices. I will keep that in mind.
What about the sideboard and the side in. 3 Chalices + 2 Krosan Grip + Pithing Needle seems ok, right?
That seems a bit too much to be honest.Quote:
Originally Posted by gfernandes
You have only 4 cards to board out: 3 Tarfire, 1 Stingscourger. The rest are creatures and creatures are better than non-creatures.
I would bring in 1 Needle and 3 Chalice. Maybe even 1 Needle , 2 Kgrip, 1 TSH if you expect to see Moat or thopter Foundry. But definitely dont board out your creatures.