@ jin
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Do you think it's the right move to go back to putrid imp though? I mean, it's not like they aren't carrying FOW still.. don't you feel just the old DDD plan is just better..
Again, just in case you are implying otherwise, the DDD plan and PImp are not mutually exclusive. I still will DDD my first turn, and if I flip over another dredger or Phantasmagorian (great odds), then I can accept having PImp or Tribe countered (likewise with Breakthrough or Study). That's when you play PImp against blue. Against non-blue decks, I'm more willing to go land->PImp rather than DDD, but it still depends. For example, if I only have 1 land in hand, and I want to use it to cast a draw spell, and my opponent is likely packing wastelands, then I won't risk my land to play PImp. Instead, I'll wait to drop that land until I am going to cast my draw spell(s), and then I'll drop PImp.
Why you should, generally speaking, value PImp/Tribe is what I've already outlined:
- it helps when you mulligan (by not getting timewalked because you can't DDD for another turn)
- it helps when you are recovering from GY hate (at any stage of the game), stopping you from getting timewalked (otherwise you have to draw up to 8 cards)
- you do have a body for blocking/attacking/saccing (which is gravy)
The first 2 points are pretty important ones. They aren't important enough to cut into 3 Phantasmagorians in my view, but they are important enough to at least play some, as they mitigate your 'less than 8' card hands, which becomes more common in games 2 and 3.
As to your FoW comment, please note that for decks packing MM, Daze, and Fow, they had a ~75% chance to open with countermagic (they will be on the play, since we are DDDing). With just MM & Force or Daze and Force, they had a ~60% chance to open with countermagic. With just Force, they have a ~35% chance to have an active Force. With the banning of MM, which I'm guessing (I can look it up if we need) was far more ubiquitous than Daze, PImp/Tribe, just like your draw spells, are going to resolve more consistently. We still DDD, but we can choose not to draw up to 8 in more circumstances now (see a mulligan to 6 card hand with PImp, land, dredger - which I would still have drawn up to 8 in a MM-metagame).
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I think your list is still viable even with street wraith. I'm curious about your extra land though. Is that necessary? It feels like it'll hurt the dredging..
Street Wraith is fine. The deck is a lot faster than most people realize - they hear "DDD" and they automatically think it will be slow (I know I once did). SW was more important in an MM-metagame, but it is less important post banning. Now, if I want draw spells 9-12, I think I prefer Brainstorm to Street Wraith (there are arguments for SW still). Try it out. Those DDD, land->Draw spell on t2 hands are extremely common.
The extra land is a nod to playing slightly more spells (which cost mana) in the deck. Improving CC activations and your sideboarding doesn't hurt either. I can see going back to 13 in faster lists though.
@ Final Fortune
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If you're focusing on hybridizing DDD with land, cantrip on turn 2, I think you need to consider whether or not Cephalid Coliseum is better than a combination of Undiscovered Paradise and Brainstorm
I actually had mentioned in the SCG post-tournament interview that we had tried cutting CC. I do recognize that CC is fundamentally slower. We put CC back in the deck because the card was outrageously good against Merfolk - a matchup where you often won't cast a single spell (I don't mean "resolve" - I mean "cast") until you are about to win the game. CC makes that matchup, a matchup of 12-16 counterspells and a clock to boot, far more favorable (even in the face of Wasteland). When your deck revolves around blue draw spells, CC is largely just as good as rainbow lands.
CC gives you a critical mass of draw spells. I don't foresee its removal from the deck, even if it isn't necessary faster than the other draw spell prima facie. But, I certainly could be wrong.
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Consider for a second,
...
list
That is a very interesting decklist. Given your assumption about CC, and clearly your assumption of the value of DR-Comboing, your decklist is well designed. I strongly recommend Sphinx of Lost Truths instead of Sage. I will be trying it out (w/Sphinxes).
I think for those who are speed-freaks (which I am not), the chain Sphinx->FKZ package is extremely relevant. The problem is getting to 3 dudes fast enough. Unlike manaless lists which had a very early critical mass of 3 creatures, just Narco and Ichorid might not be enough.
Again, I'm not convinced removing CC is correct, nor am I convinced that DR-Comboing is correct, but if I did agree to those assumptions, I'd be inclined to build (excepting the Sphinxes) the deck just like you have.
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As far as why play DDD over Pimp/Tribe, I think the simple answer is DDD has always been better than Pimp/Tribe by avoiding Force of Will and/or Daze and taking the tempo loss. It just took MMS to invalidate the strategy, forcing people to investigate alternatives to realize it wasn't actually as good as people really thought it was.
Count me on the shortbus as well - it did take MM to help me see that.
@ Mandark
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While I think you do raise an interesting point, I'd like to hear you elaborate a bit on what, exactly, is the incentive to remove the Coliseums in this particular list, seeng's how all of the castable spells in the MD are blue. Sideboard purposes only?
I agreed to his land choices specifically because of the need to consistently have rainbow lands for sideboard cards. Furthermore, with only 11 lands, CC becomes less consistent.
@ Gui
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If it's the case that you need more black creatures in that configuration (or even in a configuration with 12 castable draw spells), I'd switch back to your exactly SCG list, but with -1 Street Wraith +1 Tarnished
You really love Firestorm, don't you? Outside of some tribal matches, I'm just unimpressed by the card. Brainstorm looks substantially better than Firestorm, since we are DDDing. Firestorm looks substantially worse than PImp/Tribe for recurring dredgers (particularly when you don't have enough cards to DDD; say, a mulligan or after GY-hate), which is exactly what you need in this slot if you aren't playing draw in it. The uncounterability of the 'additional cost' is less valuable now.
@ Izor
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I really believe that in a hybrid type of list with Phantasmagorian that mostly wants to draw first and play DDD, Undiscovered Paradise is just better than Tarnished. Tarnished is undoubtedly better in lists that want to play and drop a dork turn 1 plus activate CC turn 2. But in this type of deck it was definitely better for me than Tarnished.
I want to agree! It has clear synergy with the DDD approach. I can't tell you how many times I've been bitten in the butt because it just wouldn't stay down on the board, but I've not tried it as of late, and I need to.
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I have the 4th Phantasmagorian over the 13th Dredger for now. I'll see if that works better than 13 Dredgers plus 3 Phanta.
The thing is that you really want to max on Dredgers when DDDing. Mulligans, even with PImp/Tribe in the deck, turn into timewalks too often. You want to see a Dredger in every opening hand. I'm actually looking to squeeze the 14th dredger in the deck (among several cards), that's how important it is to open with one. When you open with no dredger in hand but that 4th Phantasmagorian, you'll be pretty sad.
At 12 dredgers, you have an 81% chance to see a dredger in your opening 7 (which is often a mulligan 19% of the time). Adding dredgers improves those odds, and for now, I'm pretty those odds are worth imrp
@ Osmin
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Just start reading the thread. Has a question about last builds. Let's imagine you have 8 cards in hand. How will you choose what to do: play land, play PImp and discard dredger next upkeep or just discard dredger EOT?
If you are DDDing, and if you have phantasmagorian, you pitch it end step, otherwise pitch a dredger. For Phant, if you have Ichorids + black fodder + dredger to pitch, then phant on your opponent's end step, otherwise wait until your upkeep. If you dredge a dredger or another phant, or you happen to have pitched 2 dredgers with phant, consider going land->Draw spell.
@ I am the brainwasher
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I still need to be convinced (and really looking forward that this will happen) that this is the way to go, but atm I am way to concerned about all different sort of storm-based combo decks that you are unable to race (well, at least thats what my experience/testing in the pre MM aera had shown me, as said above, I definetly can be told better at that point) with these tweaks.
I see two combo decks coming back: Tendrils and Spiral Tide. Spiral Tide we can certainly race. Tendrils, I am not convinced.
Let's be honest: A very skilled storm pilot should win MOST of the time against any build of Dredge. Bryant Cook will whip our asses most of the time. Now, obviously, some builds are better than others, and some pilots are better than others. I think you really need to ask yourself if answering Tendrils, if building to beat it, is really the way to go.
Dredge preys on Tendril's predators. I think you are doing it wrong if you go for Tendrils. That said, I think the fastest (on average) version of the deck will be 12-draw spell and DDD. And, if you want to answer Tendrils, then I'd go that direction.
Turn 3 is really as fast an average fundamental turn as you can expect in this deck. Yes, you can find great LED hands, but they are much less common than people realize (and Chants do wreck LED->DA, although not LED->CC, on the draw). That just isn't good enough against well-played tendrils combo.
@ Mojeh
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In my opinion, PImp+Tribe combination is great against GY hate and possibly better than Gorian against combo, while worse against permission.
I agree that PImp/Tribe is great against GY hate (as I've stated several time), but I disagree about them being more valuable than Phantasmagorian in the Tendrils combo matchup (I'm assuming you are talking about Tendrils). Your goto plan should still be DDD, land->draw against combo. It is your most consistent chance (by a long shot when you look at the math) to be explosive.
@ Parcher
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Brainstorm is never going to be good. The problem with it is first, it loses all of it's ability to fix an opening hand in this deck. Second, it cannot be used for discard. And third, and most important, it doesn't actually Dredge three times. You have to return three dredgers to the top of your library, which cuts your next turn's draw down to nothing.
While Brainstorm is never going to be as good as the other blue draw/discards, I'm not sure if it isn't worth running (I'm leaning against it). Drawing 3 cards for 1 mana might just be good enough though. You aren't using Brainstorm as other decks do, but that's fine (this deck doesn't play magic as usual anyways). It still functions as 1 mana for 3 timewalks in this deck, and it needs to be tested.
I'm almost certain Brainstorm allows you to Dredge 3 times (we can ask CDR if need be). You are forced to return 2 cards from your hand to your library, but those aren't necessarily going to be dredgers (Narco is nice, but uncommon). Brainstorm is a dangerous card if you fail to chain-dredge, which is a giant strike against it. You can't afford to whiff on chain-dredging unless you have Phantasmagorian and at least 2 cards in hand after Brainstorming. So, I am certainly leery of the card.
You'll need to explain how it "cuts your next turn's draw down to nothing." I'm not sure what you mean.
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I do, however worry about it post-board. With more Aggro and Tribal coming back post-ban, you are going to see more Crypts, and far more Relics post-board. In comparison to the Extirpates and Extractions we've been seeing, this makes Phantasm a liability, especially in comparison to Tribe. Which combined with PImp can wholly ignore Crypt/Relic. At least against decks that have a hard time removing them.
As you can read above, I agree that Tribe/PImp are excellent in this very capacity. I'm already running 4 PImp in the flex slots for this reason. Now, the odds of having 1 of the 3 Tribe/PImp than Phantasmagorian replaces actually on the board are pretty small, and much less common to abuse than Phantasmagorian in regular play (leaps and bounds different -- I use Phantasmagorian in most of my games, and 1 of those 3 pretty uncommonly).
What many people miss is that the odds of your opponent having GY hate is actually pretty low (and may be even lower if aggro/tribal decks are forced to sideboard for normal combo as well). You do want to be able to answer the strongest hands that aggro/tribal can bring, but you also need to realize that the vast majority of the time you won't need to do that (and that fact needs to factor into how we construct the deck). Those who have only 2 pieces of GY hate will only see them in their opening hand 22% of the time (not including whether or not they have the mana to cast it if it is relic). 32% for 3 GY-hate cards. 40% for 4 GY-hate cards. I rarely see others (besides myself) willing to put more than 4 GY-hate cards in their sideboard. Now, brainstorm/top improves these odds by a good bit, but Tribal and aggro don't play these cards. So, the majority of the time aggro/tribal decks are either going to mulligan heavily to get to their GY hate, keep less than optimal hands which do have GY-hate, or play without GY hate. If they don't have it, then great, we don't need to worry about recoverying. In a sizable number of games when they do have it, they've mulliganed for it, and being slower to recover is far more acceptable. It is very uncommon to see amazing aggro/tribal hands which happen to have GY-hate in them, uncommon enough that it factors into how I construct than it might for others.
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Regardless, what I would seriously consider in your "flex slots" post-ban, is a set of Gitaxian Probe. It's never existed without MM, and I think it solves a lot of problems. In your case, you can chose to draw, and still make decisions after seeing their hand. It makes any in-hand Therapy insane, since you can see their hand, draw, then cast Therapy. Or, you can see their hand, cast PImp, discard your hand, and Flashback Therapy if needs be. This should help both speed, and disruption-wise against Combo. It always makes your first Therapy hit their scarce resource. Post-board, assuming your opponent forces you to play first, you can see what hate they have before choosing a line of play. If they have Daze, you do lose the ability to DDD and play it, but if you have a PImp/Tribe in hand (easy if you run 8), then it's irrelivant. And it's obviously a free Dredge in all cases.
I played Manaless quite a bit after NPH (in part because I think the deck is hilariously fun, but also because it was a different approach). I have a decent amount of experience with the card in dredge.
First, the peek effect is overrrated in this deck. I rarely whiff on Therapy, and when I do, it usually means they don't have the card that I'm worried about in most cases. Combo is an exception (but I'll get to that at the end). Further, the information advantage is pretty minimal for a deck that is largely uninteractive, there are cases where it matters, but that information advantage is less valuable for this deck on average (and besides, Therapy already gives us that information in many cases). Probe's peek effect is merely 'okay' and not a major selling point to me.
What is enticing about Probe is that it is free. But, it is clearly worse than Street Wraith in this respect. SW is fodder for GGT-DR and Ichorid. SW is uncounterable (minus Stifle, obv.), which is huge. And, lastly, SW is instant, and that is very powerful, particularly when DDDing. End step discard down a dredger, you can easily SW on your opponents turn, perhaps flipping over a narco to block a Lackey or flipping Ichorid for the next turn, or flipping Phantasmagorian to pitch your hand (Ichorids and Bridges especially). Probe belongs in Manaless, but I think it doesn't deserve a place in mana'd dredge of any sort.
And, I want to point out again that "if you have a PImp/Tribe in hand (easy if you run 8)" is misleading. PImpin' ain't "easy" at all. With 10 rainbow lands and the full 8 PImp/Tribe, you have a 46% chance to see them in your opening 7, 54% in 8. Further, if you think opening with a dredger is vital, those numbers plummet, even when running 13 dredgers, to 36% in 7. That's not "easy" in the sense that you can expect it the majority of the time.
Lastly, and this is tangential, I'll admit I am more comfortable with throwing the combo matchup than most people. I don't foresee it maintaining any decent percentages in the metagame - Merfolk, CBTop, Chalice decks, and TA will always be huge predators to it - only extremely talented tendrils players can afford to play in a field prepared for tendrils. Answering Tendrils doesn't seem necessary or worthwhile to me. The work it takes to improve the matchup simply isn't worth the sacrifice in all your other matchups (which are the matchups you are metagaming to play against in the first place).
@ Hollywood
You raise good points. I'm going to be testing manaless again. And, as I said above, I'll be testing DR->chain Sphinx->Zealot package. I'm not convinced yet, but I could be.
peace,
4eak
