Originally Posted by
Fox
@taconaut it's not just free Peek, it's +1 delve mana Peek for zero; this mana positive bonus that came about with delve cards is what changed.
Most ban arguments here usually boil down to subjective opinion, but in the case of Probe we can objectively categorize it as a blatant mana issue after Khans.
In that case, why does no one play Street Wraith? Why does no one play Mishra's Bauble? Both have effectively zero cost according to your metric, and "make a mana" for Delve.
That's a dangerous thing when combined with being an objectively uninteractive (or interaction-diminishing & game length-diminishing) card. There is a very key distinction between Probe and Thoughtseize/cantrips: you have expose a land to interaction, and you have to lose mana for that turn before either Thoughtseize/cantrip can help you find the best line. Unless your opponent is on specifically Burn, there is no meaningful resource risked/offered with which an opponent could interact.
So? I remain unconvinced that this matters in any meaningful way in 90+% of games. What decks are you playing against that go, "Dual, something turn 1!!" that you get to respond with "HAHA, wasteland you, #GotEm!"? The reason you have to pay a mana for Thoughtseize or a Cantrip is because the impact of the card is meaningful - Probe just randomly replaces itself and gives you a bit of information. A great deal of the time, Probing on turn 1 is not correct - in the case of Storm, sometimes you want to wait until the fundamental turn, especially if you lack a discard spell.
You don't need a card to be played at Mental Misstep levels to be ban-worthy. To reiterate: the linear mana issues of Probe exist only in UBg colors (Cruise/Dig/every delve creature).
Cruise and Dig are not relevant to this discussion, as they were not legal when Probe was banned.
The requirements for winning with Probe's power used to warp deckbuilding (ANT/Dredge/etc...), but delve creatures let fair decks [primarily Grixis Delver] hijack it.
Not to be reductive, but Gurmang Angler is a vanilla 5/5, and creatures are the most interactive card type in Magic. I'm just not seeing the brokenness - this argument is that Grixis, and by extension, Probe, is broken because...it gets a discount tarmogoyf?
In the same way the dredge mechanic hijacked Bazaar of Baghdad, so while it's unfair that Welder, Reanimator, and Rootwalla/Hollow One will never get to use Bazaar in legacy, it's still the right call to ban Bazaar rather than every card with keyword dredge.
I think Bazaar is objectively busted whether Dredge exists or not; I don't think the comparison applies to Probe.
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@taconaut here's some of the non-Probe stuff:
Once decks without any central strategy other than play the best cheap spells [or conversely play the most value spells] are able unlock busted potential without any build-around (i.e. incorporating need to perform multi-card sequences which are inherently disruptable),
like, say, a 2/1 for 1R, a Discard spell with flashback, and a cantrip? :tongue:
you have to take a serious look at cards like Probe. Letting the issue fester kills diversity; some examples:
-if you were playing any Delver deck not called Grixis with DRS and Probe, you were playing a less winning deck. You were less efficient at abusing Fetchlands.
You use the phrase "abusing Fetchlands" to describe what makes Probe broken; I'm still not sure I see why Fetches have anything to do with Probe. Could you expand on this? I think earlier you were saying that the reason is that they add extra mana for delve, but that's true of Fetches whether Probe exists or not, so I don't see the connection.
-if you were playing any non-Delver/non-Elves DRS deck not called Czech Pile, you were playing a less winning deck.
Am I forgetting a deck, or is the set that these constraints describe literally "Maverick?"
Also, your fair DRS deck can't do anything to beat Hymn/SCM/Kcomm - your best bet was topdecking running TNNs. One possible exception to this was the super greedy version of Czech with Grove/P-Fire, but that's almost the same deck.
-if you currently play Stoneblade you win less with Tundra b/c you aren't playing Counterbalance (miracles).
-if you currently play Stoneblade/Shardless/ETB-fair deck, you win less than Grixis Jammy Jams b/c you don't play Hymn/SCM/Kcomm.
I think these assertions are all generally true, and also fine? Some decks are just better than others; this will always be true.
Now I don't care for Chalice, but at least I can see it in Aggro Loam, Eldrazi, Vial decks, what vial deck plays chalice? Steel Stompy, Eldrazi Post, TurboMoon, and others. This card is so high variance and restrictive to deckbuilding (and most often unable to capitalize on Fetchland abuse) that it's never going to be the only way to play Chalice. Differing Chalice strategies are also notoriously horrible at disrupting each other and are thus unable to force out differing Chalice strategies from the meta.
I mean, personally, Moon Stompy and Spaghetti Stompy might as well be the same deck to me; I feel like that sort of diversity is mostly illusory. That might be more about me, though; maybe there is some cadre of sol-land-connoisseurs that really appreciate the subtle differences between what otherwise-unplayable beater they jam after Mind Twisting their opponent on turn 1 for 2 colorless mana :tongue:
Grixis Jammy Jams and miracles however do force diversity [of similar strategies] out because Hymn and blue-Hymn (Counterbalance) are unrivaled card advantage engines.
I mean, there's also lands, which uses Loam for card advantage in a control strategy. I get what you mean, though.
I think it's strange to lament that there is a particular midrange strategy that is the best - that's the whole point of midrange, right? "Here's a pile of the most efficient threats and answers that are available in the format; if I am a decent magic player, I can expect at least a 50/50 matchup against anyone because all my topdecks are decent and I can deal with a lot of different scenarios." There can only be so many "best cards" in a format, so the midrange deck of choice just being a combination of those cards seems like the obvious endpoint, especially in eternal formats, where the card pool has been iterated over for a long time. Sure, it's a bummer if you want to be the Knight of the Reliquary Guy, or the Stoneforge Mystic Guy, but sometimes the set of "best cards" isn't Junk or Esper at the moment, and them's the breaks.
Like Probe, Counterbalance and Hymn can't be used profitably in every shell; but that doesn't mean that these two aren't the primary drivers of diminished format diversity [i.e. bannable].
Again, Probe did not have an effect on diversity. It was in approximately 16% of decks. The only time in recent memory that Legacy wasn't diverse was during the DTT/Cruise era, and they banned those cards. Other than that, there have been viable decks of essentially every archetype.
Powerful effects you have to work for and build around are just fine. Free mana and CA handouts to fair Fetchland decks, not so okay; they cause homogeneity.
Probe is not card advantage, and it's not free - if it were, every deck would play it, and they didn't! People asserting that there wasn't diversity in Legacy are just plainly not addressing all the different archetypes - they are right there, in black and white, in the DTB thread. I don't know how else to say it - there is no defensible argument that Probe homogenized decks.
@Ronald Deuce Ya, I'm with you on combo didn't ruin Probe, but it can't be unbanned and not exploited past the point of reasonable [mana advantage] by Grixis Delver's unparalleled Fetchland efficiency. When ANT/TES lost Probe and largely went away, legacy devolved into Snapcaster soup.
Could you give me some examples of decks that you would like to play that you think aren't viable? What diversity was lacking when Probe was legal?