All B/R update speculation.

Does anybody think the meta is likely to reverse the trend towards the blue shell at this point barring any bannings?

I'm just curious under what circumstances people think that the number of lists playing Brainstorm would realistically decline at this point?

Secondary point to this would be that whether you think the meta will be 3% less blue shell or 7% less blue shell in 6 months due to some unforseen shift, the odds on it not being 3% more blue than it is currently or 7% more blue that it is currently a year down the road are fairly low. It's gone up about 3% a year over the last 5 years. What exactly is going to stop us from getting to the point that 85% of all lists are blue shell and the other 15% are dedicated anti-blue shell?

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Originally Posted by Dice_Box

Elves and Lands (Combo build) are two non Blue decks with powerful draw engine that win. I would agree that they rotate in and out of the Meta, but they win. Also if there was not a card that cost a grand that you needed for Lands I would bet good money it would see a ton more play.

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I often see this thrown around a lot, so I have got to ask. While I have no doubt that not having a Tabernacle makes your build not optimal, how necessary is that card to the overall strategy? My point being, if Lands is powerful enough to be widely played, wouldn't we see lists that are slightly sub-optimal due to price constraints? Is Tabernacle that much of a cornerstone to the deck? I am not a Lands player, so I do apologize for the question.

On topic, I cannot really see how this metagame would reverse it's trajectory. Maybe with some serious unbannings? But even so, many of those cards will simply fit into a cantrip shell.

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Originally Posted by Barook

I agree with being Brainstorm banned, people would likely just shift to Ponder and Preordain and switching stuff like Miracles to UW Blade (whether or not Miracles being gone is a good or bad thing is a different topic). I don't think that the majority of people who want Brainstorm banned also want the blue shell completely gone (you would need to kill any remotely playable cantrip for that), but knocking it down to a more reasonable level. Brainstorm is an easy target for that since it has a bunch of unique properties the other playable cantrips don't:
a) Instant speed, b) being able to trade chaff for fresh cards and c) discard protection.

If you banned Ponder, people would just run Brainstorm + Preordain and literally nothing would change.
If you banned Brainstorm, people would just run Ponder + Preordain, but:
a) People now need to plan ahead their turns more instead of sitting on their ass with :u: until anything bad happens,
b) more mulligan decisions because you can't get rid of your chaff (which brings down blue to the level of other decks regarding that, leveling the playing field; yes, blue decks would lose consistency because of that, but that isn't necessarily a bad thing, since other colors don't have the ability to semi-mulligan for 1 mana, either; being able to get rid of unwanted chaff makes deckbuildung less rewarding, too, since there's much less risk compared to the reward when running very narrow cards. E.g. Sylvan Plug runs narrow cards like Choke in the MD, but there's a trade-off between raw power and being stuck with one or multiple dead card(s).)
c) discard becomes better

As for the TC vs DTT thing, while looking different on the surface (raw CA vs CA + selection, sorcery speed vs instant speed), they share the same core problems that make them stupid, unlike Brainstorm vs other cantrips (as explained above):
- being undercosted for what they do in Legacy because they can be easily fed with free fetches + Probes and other cheaps spells, especially cantrips
- your opponent is punished for interacting with you at all - it doesn't matter if it's removal, discard or counters, you inevitably feed the next Delve spell, putting you then at a disadvantage.


Hard to say - BS power level depends on the rest of the deck, and they've printed alot of stupid cards since then that either directly interact well Brainstorm (e.g. Miracles, Delver, Shardless Agent) or feed A+B combo which Brainstorm makes more consistent (Griselbee, Omniderp). While the unique properties mentioned above stay the same, I'd say its relative power has increased, thus being more bannable before. Survival was also okay before they printed Vengevine (and Ooze), with the danger of more stupid things to come on the horizon. We can never know when the next stupid mechanic comes around that rewards you for top cards on your library, either (Manifest luckily hasn't been broken - yet).


How would you interpret it then?

- first ban card because it makes the format too blue
- other card hits the same percentage or even succeeds it, but this time nothing happens

The reasoning becomes flawed and inconsequent with that.


Frantic Search with Dig Through Time around seems very dangerous. Otherwise, it might be okay.

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I would interpret the quote to mean that the format got [B]too [/Blue too fast. before this era we had a lot of non blue decks that could compete with blue decks. when mental misstep was printed however it obsoleted those decks in a few weeks. we haven't seen a large resurgence of non blue decks since that era. when we look at the larger ban framework time and circularity is an important factor. it seems like wotc thinks that this is just a phase of the format

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Originally Posted by HrishiQQ

On topic, I cannot really see how this metagame would reverse it's trajectory. Maybe with some serious unbannings? But even so, many of those cards will simply fit into a cantrip shell.

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What could they reallistically unban to dent the cantrip shell? At least without the format going to hell.

Unless they print something that makes the cantrip shell alot less appealing, I can't see the trend of more and more people running the blue shell stopping.

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Originally Posted by Barook

What could they reallistically unban to dent the cantrip shell? At least without the format going to hell.

Unless they print something that makes the cantrip shell alot less appealing, I can't see the trend of more and more people running the blue shell stopping.

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black vise might do it

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Originally Posted by Zombie

And, you know, a couple hundred miles behind blue's options in power level, which was kind of the whole fucking point. This doesn't happen nearly to the same degree with other key tools.

Reinforcing the point, not rebutting you

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I'd argue that Library is a more powerful card than either BS or Ponder overall. However costing 2 mana and having to wait a turn for its effect to take place makes it just not a feasible option a lot of the time in legacy. Also in multiples it gets real bad so you are not as likely to want to run more than 2 and MAYBE 3.

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Originally Posted by Megadeus

I'd argue that Library is a more powerful card than either BS or Ponder overall. However costing 2 mana and having to wait a turn for its effect to take place makes it just not a feasible option a lot of the time in legacy. Also in multiples it gets real bad so you are not as likely to want to run more than 2 and MAYBE 3.

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I'd agree that Sylvan Library is more powerful than Ponder in a vaccum but not that it's more powerful than Brainstorm. Cost, timing, immediate return and utility have to be part of the conversation and Brainstorm is cheaper, easier to use, more likely to resolve successfully and has a wider range of utility than Sylvan Library.

If Legacy had a weakened cantrip shell it's very possible that Sylvan Library would become one of the best and most widely played card selection tools in the format instead of a 1 or 2-of in most lists that use it. It's true that it is weaker in multiples but assuming it doesn't land too late in the match it's a very powerful effect and one that you'd really like to get into play against many lists.

You're absolutely on target that waiting until turn 3 for Sylvan Library to actually do something makes it not feasible as an engine card at this point except in extremely narrow lists that have no other realistic options. It's good as an alternative option that doesn't kill you if you don't draw it in some other lists. There are no lists in the meta that rely on resolving a Sylvan Library most of the time to make the game plan effective. That's because there are no lists that can reliably guarantee seeing it early in a game.

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Originally Posted by HrishiQQ

I often see this thrown around a lot, so I have got to ask. While I have no doubt that not having a Tabernacle makes your build not optimal, how necessary is that card to the overall strategy? My point being, if Lands is powerful enough to be widely played, wouldn't we see lists that are slightly sub-optimal due to price constraints? Is Tabernacle that much of a cornerstone to the deck? I am not a Lands player, so I do apologize for the question.

On topic, I cannot really see how this metagame would reverse it's trajectory. Maybe with some serious unbannings? But even so, many of those cards will simply fit into a cantrip shell.

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It's how you beat tribal and creatures with protection

I would say about 60-70% of the time you'll be fine without it, then you'll play against rug with a turn 1 mongoose, or a vial deck that manages to swarm you (merfolk, goblins and every so often d&t draws all of its Serra avengers) and you'll wish you had it

Frantic Search with Dig through Time seems very saucy. As broken as I think Search is, SnT has to be more broken. In a vacuum, a blender, or in a chocolate cake, SnT>Frantic Search.

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Originally Posted by Kanti

Frantic Search with Dig through Time seems very saucy. As broken as I think Search is, SnT has to be more broken. In a vacuum, a blender, or in a chocolate cake, SnT>Frantic Search.

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You've obviously never played with Frantic Search in Storm shells, then. The free mana is the most potent part of that card. Add in the fact that it's three mana towards DTT and you have a hell of a shell to build around.

I can see one important point why blue cantrip shell is so powerful - thanks to DTT most of those deck get CA, which wasn't before (Treasure Cruise was obv more broken), but that's not the point.

There are many slower decks which can easy win vs those cantriping tempo decks, but there is one type of decks which hold them - S&T variations. You almost can't fight them without stack control. Show & Tell targets are just too powerful:
- Omniscience
- Griselbrand

Those target's just overlap any option, without stopping S&T you mostly loses.

Other combo decks can be answer with permanent hate like hatebear, graveyard hate or removal - I mean mostly storm, gy based combos, even old Sneak & Show could be stopped by Needle + Karakas.

This mean slower, non-blue decks mostly autolose, so they can't go 9-0 without facing some autopiloted version of Omnisience, this mean only blue based heavy cantrip deck can competed on long range (sure you can win - but you need luck).

Remember years when Zoo / CB-Bant was dominating and tempo decks was almost non-existence, everything changes after printing few cards:
- 1 Mana - Wrath of God
- 1 Mana blue flying Nacatl
- Baragain on legs, then Omniscience

Those prints just cut of completely all archetype which keeps in check tempo blue decks. Why I should pick worst deck which loses vs Omnisience ?

Nail in the coffin was printing Blue (why ?!) Progenitus for 3.

So simple to resolve cantrip cartel - instead of banning each of them just resolve problems which hold other archetypes to compete:

- Terminus
- Delver of Secrets
- Omniscience / Griselbrand
- True-Name Nemesis

format again will be much opened and we will see big changes like Tribals, Zoo, Jund, Eva Green, Stompies, Stax and much more.

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Originally Posted by Fatal

So simple to resolve cantrip cartel - instead of banning each of them just resolve problems which hold other archetypes to compete:

- Terminus
- Delver of Secrets
- Omniscience / Griselbrand
- True-Name Nemesis

format again will be much opened and we will see big changes like Tribals, Zoo, Jund, Eva Green, Stompies, Stax and much more.

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This man gets it. I've been making this exact argument on and off for some time, but it's usually ignored with "but that won't solve the Brainstorm problem" or something similar. People forget that only 4-5 years ago the format was only 50% blue and much healthier as well. Show and Tell combo is a huge offender here simply because it dodges most hate against the traditional combo pillars (stack-based engine combo and graveyard combo), while the effect that Terminus has had on aggressive decks is obvious. I believe if all the cards you listed were banned tomorrow (after an initial couple months of crying and chaos) we would have a much more diverse, fun, and skill-testing Legacy format.

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Originally Posted by Admiral_Arzar

This man gets it. I've been making this exact argument on and off for some time, but it's usually ignored with "but that won't solve the Brainstorm problem" or something similar. People forget that only 4-5 years ago the format was only 50% blue and much healthier as well. Show and Tell combo is a huge offender here simply because it dodges most hate against the traditional combo pillars (stack-based engine combo and graveyard combo), while the effect that Terminus has had on aggressive decks is obvious. I believe if all the cards you listed were banned tomorrow (after an initial couple months of crying and chaos) we would have a much more diverse, fun, and skill-testing Legacy format.

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For me this is the Vengevine-Fallacy. The format does not get any better if you keep S&T around and just have to wait for the next dumb fatty with Return to Zendikar coming and Emrakul legal. It would also not "solve" the issues of outdated Aggro types with Miracles. It is not much of a difference if you Terminus the board or create 4/4 "chumpblockers". We've seen 0 Terminus and 3-4 Entreats as a working concept before.

You are reverting the format back to where it was maybe three years ago and hope that the inevitable powercreep does not strike it again. Ain't working for long

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Originally Posted by Admiral_Arzar

This man gets it. I've been making this exact argument on and off for some time, but it's usually ignored with "but that won't solve the Brainstorm problem" or something similar. People forget that only 4-5 years ago the format was only 50% blue and much healthier as well. Show and Tell combo is a huge offender here simply because it dodges most hate against the traditional combo pillars (stack-based engine combo and graveyard combo), while the effect that Terminus has had on aggressive decks is obvious. I believe if all the cards you listed were banned tomorrow (after an initial couple months of crying and chaos) we would have a much more diverse, fun, and skill-testing Legacy format.

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No he doesn't. There's a reason Survival was banned, rather than creatures.

Besides: Blue being the de-facto BEST color is NOT a problem. The format is healthy, with a large difference in archetypes, which is what matters.

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For me this is the Vengevine-Fallacy. The format does not get any better if you keep S&T around and just have to wait for the next dumb fatty with Return to Zendikar coming and Emrakul legal. It would also not "solve" the issues of outdated Aggro types with Miracles. It is not much of a difference if you Terminus the board or create 4/4 "chumpblockers". We've seen 0 Terminus and 3-4 Entreats as a working concept before.

You are reverting the format back to where it was maybe three years ago and hope that the inevitable powercreep does not strike it again. Ain't working for long

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Dear @Lemnear

- I don't reverting the format back. I don't negate Deathrite Shaman or Abrupt Decay they are great, Red Hatebear - check, Black useful Sweeper - check, red "tarmogoyf" - check and many other useful cards printed last years. I just point cards which hold format in stagnation.

Everytime WotC printing overcosted Creature which in T2 has oracle "you win the game" I always think which impact it has on legacy and how to fight it. It's fun as long you found at the end solution which can give you advantage. There is a problem with Omnisience and Griselbrand - solution doesn't exist. Funny fact - before Omniscience I found that best answer will be ... Emrakul in hand, it also give edge vs Grindstone combo - it answer vs Griselbrand, and Emrakul (after legend rule changes even more).

Terminus cost W, EtA cost XWW so 3 mana is needed just to take effect - its big big difference - if you think it's the same try to fight any tempo/aggro deck with 4 EtA instead of Terminus and you get why it was only concept, at the end look how easy tokens can be took down vs how hard fight Terminus without stack control - read blue.

TNN isn't really a problem as it is annoying, sure it with equipment is obnoxious but hardly oppressive, and banning terminus won't change th fact zoo and goblins cannot beat jitte or batterskull, zoo can race a terminus (via burn and cost efficient creatures) and goblins has plenty of card advantage, neither can effectively deal with an online batterskull or jitte.

Also, in banning delver, you basically take away one of miracles best MUs, why play jund or shardless when bug delver does something similar but also gets daze and a 3/2 flier, with no delver, barring an unforeseen archetype, jund and shardless are suddenly much more attractive options, both are strong tap out decks that have strong haymakers, jund being the more powerful deck and shardless being more consistent

I also feel in that list, you'd have to ban something from elves, as there is no reason I can think of to not play elves in a world with no terminus, no delver decks to randomly beat you, no show and tell to drop turn 2 griselbrand, all the fair decks basically don't do anything to you, sure combo bears you but I'm pretty sure you are favored against 70% of the format

Course banning delver would mean no more rug but that is a fair trade off

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Originally Posted by Darkenslight

You've obviously never played with Frantic Search in Storm shells, then. The free mana is the most potent part of that card. Add in the fact that it's three mana towards DTT and you have a hell of a shell to build around.

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I still feel that Omniscience would edge out any High Tide deck with Frantic Search in it, or at least be on par with it. My point is why am I spending 3 mana on a spell in a combo deck if it isn't called Show and Tell? And playing FS in a non-High Tide deck doesn't seem the best, as it's card disadvantage. I'd probably rather cast a Ponder, or just an actual spell there, even though it's feeding your graveyard for countless shenanigans.

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Originally Posted by Fatal

So simple to resolve cantrip cartel - instead of banning each of them just resolve problems which hold other archetypes to compete:

- Terminus
- Delver of Secrets
- Omniscience / Griselbrand
- True-Name Nemesis

format again will be much opened and we will see big changes like Tribals, Zoo, Jund, Eva Green, Stompies, Stax and much more.

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This won't work though. It's the cantrip cartel that is powerful. It's ability to find cards and resolve land issues early is completely unparalleled by any other effect in the game.

The consistent list everybody hated in 2009 was RUG Canadian. The difference between 2009 and now is that almost every Legacy contender is using the cantrip cartel and has the same dominating consistency that RUG Canadian had back in the day. This is also why RUG Canadian is so much weaker now than it was back then despite the addition of Delver of Secrets. Lots of other lists got Delver of Secrets also but everybody decided the 8+ cantrip plan was the way to go and RUG's consistency is no longer dominant in and of itself.

Brainstorm and Ponder. Get rid of those and leave everything else as it is. It's worth the look.

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Originally Posted by FoolofaTook

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Brainstorm and Ponder. Get rid of those and leave everything else as it is. It's worth the look.

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It won't work, and besides: you're describing Modern.

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Originally Posted by FoolofaTook

Brainstorm and Ponder. Get rid of those and leave everything else as it is. It's worth the look.

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If Hasbro ever wanted to kill Legacy, this would be the way to do it. My guess is that more than half the player base would instantly rage quit.

Why is this thread the most active on this website? It is disturbing. I wonder if some of the most active posters ever have time to play the format.