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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheAardvark
It must be super cool for Apathy House to list it.
I changed my mind, but I can't go a penny over $15,999.
I'll do it as a set with this totally tits laserpenis Phelddagrif for only four easy payments of $4,999 each!
http://i.backpackgnome.com/429017304...2.24184791.png
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
@Mr C. I actually agree with a lot of that little review of M12. It is one disappointing set this time around. The only thing I think I'd argue with is the Boots. Those are EDH gold and I already can get $3 a pop out of them. I have a ton and I love this card so far. I play EDH so I know why. I kept 8 for myself. The foils of it are very worth mentioning considering how much they are going for and that's not going to change much. EDH staples are oddly in demand considerably higher than people think. Those boots are one of the new staples. People like throwing crap on the general too much to not like that card.
That new Jace will go down then right back up before the rotation considering he's the last remaining vestige of card draw in standard come innistrad. The only other choices become Divination (which blows) and Blue Sun's Zenith (which is way color heavy). Sad but true. Hopefully Innistrad itself has some good replacement in it.
Garruck is pretty good as a card, just bad timing to be used. In a world of combo in standard, I don't want to be playing mono-green.
Good review though, it's just sad how right you are about that stuff.
As far as Legacy goes, meh. Ignore set, move on, give us more flashback crap please.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Garruk seems like a much more potent draw engine compared to jace 3, but who knows. After all garruk isn't blue.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
@Mr.C: I agree with most of the obvious bulk rares, however I'm not seeing any Primeval Titan or Grave Titan hit lower than 8-10$ for the first and a bit less for the latter... also buying Simulacrum at 2$ is impossible.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
As a Legacy player, the only cards I preordered from M12 are Phantasmal Image (playset @$6), Elvish Archdruid ($4, I knew it was going to be reprinted and knew it would never be bulk) and Sundial ($6). Preordering cards is generally a bad idea and here are the reasons I am doing this time:
1. M12 is a poor set. (see the WWK lesson)
2. Image will be used in the most popular Legacy deck; Sundial has a unique effect at a reasonable cost. I may be able to get them for half I paid for the preorder, but I do not want to take the risk as they will end up higher, if not much higher some day.
3. I do not speculate, I only enjoy buying my cards cheap.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Yeah I was at a shop today and he had a foil chinese boots, was surprised when he said it was 12$. Greaves are only a little more expensive, and there is a lot more m12 to open, leading one to believe that the price cant be that high forever. I'm not too sure when to pull the trigger. I think since EDH is passing legacy (as the new hotness) with the release of the precons, so wonky speculation is going to be common, keeping prices volatile. The upcoming block looks to cater to all 3 formats so it could get crazy.
Come rotation, standard is going to be powered down some (color fixing and drawing become much poorer), so I think titans will remain at the forefront of the meta, the only other reprinted mythic that was decent that I can recall was baneslayer and that dropped to ~10$ even though it became practically irrelevant due to the titans.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
kiblast
@Mr.C: I agree with most of the obvious bulk rares, however I'm not seeing any Primeval Titan or Grave Titan hit lower than 8-10$ for the first and a bit less for the latter... also buying Simulacrum at 2$ is impossible.
Thing with Primeval, I looked at where Frost Titan is ($3 ish, granted he has a promo), and then with Valakut rotating, where exactly do you want to play him? Grave will be held back by the fact there is a Promo version, I would think.
Solemn was possible to buy at 2 right before EDH took off. Heck, I'd see sales lists with him at 2-2.50 on MOTL forever with no takers. I just don't see him holding value while being a rare.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I've bought one for 2.5 a week ago. They're reprinted, and they're everywhere. You can find people willing to unload at 2.5-3.
-Matt
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Used Warrior's Oath, 89 euros? Price history from previous week: $9.99, $24.99, $49.99
magiccardmarket.eu
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Its random hype, nobody needs that card _AT ALL_
Some guys saw someone bragging here with that card, then just bought the 4-5 that were avaible on MkM, and WOW, now a new random hyped card is created. Stay real and admit that this card is just crap....
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
death
Used Warrior's Oath, 89 euros? Price history from previous week: $9.99, $24.99, $49.99
magiccardmarket.eu
OH MY GOD ONE GUY IS TRYING TO SELL WARRIOR'S OATH @ 89Euros, IT MUST BE WORTH THAT...
By the way, let me know when you sell yours so I can provide post game analysis for this awesome speculation.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Textbook example of the greater fool theory.
Sadly, this won't be the last time this happens.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Did you guys get to watch the near instant sell out of Nether Shadows last night? Gawd, that was funny. Way to speculate on a card there's entirely too many of. It may be old, but there's a ton of those out there.
Anyway, I am starting to wonder something. I keep noticing I'm having a hard time finding cards that shouldn't be hard to find. Especially foils of older cards that no one really cares about. It's weird.
Is the supply of older stuff just finally spread out among Europe and Asia to the point of making people notice the supply is almost gone now? I keep running into the problem of trying to hunt down cards that don't seem to be on sale anywhere and if they are, they usually are the overpriced Ebay auctions.
I used to be able to find just about anything online, now it seems that some particular cards have just dried up completely. I've had Email notifications set up for several cards with several sites and I never see them pop up. It's getting weird.
Whatever happened to the days where you could run into random people with Arabian cards in binders on a regular basis. Now I'm lucky to run into people with anything older than Lorwyn.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
Did you guys get to watch the near instant sell out of Nether Shadows last night? Gawd, that was funny. Way to speculate on a card there's entirely too many of. It may be old, but there's a ton of those out there.
Anyway, I am starting to wonder something. I keep noticing I'm having a hard time finding cards that shouldn't be hard to find. Especially foils of older cards that no one really cares about. It's weird.
Is the supply of older stuff just finally spread out among Europe and Asia to the point of making people notice the supply is almost gone now? I keep running into the problem of trying to hunt down cards that don't seem to be on sale anywhere and if they are, they usually are the overpriced Ebay auctions.
I used to be able to find just about anything online, now it seems that some particular cards have just dried up completely. I've had Email notifications set up for several cards with several sites and I never see them pop up. It's getting weird.
Whatever happened to the days where you could run into random people with Arabian cards in binders on a regular basis. Now I'm lucky to run into people with anything older than Lorwyn.
What kind of stuff do you mean? The only thing that comes to mind was that about a month ago, FMc and tcgplayer together had about a half dozen copies of Mana Reflection, but that's since been rectified.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
When Stoneforge Mystic first came out, I bought 24 of them for $3 a piece. My best friend told me I was stupid for doing so, then I sold 20 of them at $25 a piece to lots of those silly Standard players when it hit its peak price.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
Did you guys get to watch the near instant sell out of Nether Shadows last night? Gawd, that was funny. Way to speculate on a card there's entirely too many of. It may be old, but there's a ton of those out there.
Anyway, I am starting to wonder something. I keep noticing I'm having a hard time finding cards that shouldn't be hard to find. Especially foils of older cards that no one really cares about. It's weird.
Is the supply of older stuff just finally spread out among Europe and Asia to the point of making people notice the supply is almost gone now? I keep running into the problem of trying to hunt down cards that don't seem to be on sale anywhere and if they are, they usually are the overpriced Ebay auctions.
I used to be able to find just about anything online, now it seems that some particular cards have just dried up completely. I've had Email notifications set up for several cards with several sites and I never see them pop up. It's getting weird.
Whatever happened to the days where you could run into random people with Arabian cards in binders on a regular basis. Now I'm lucky to run into people with anything older than Lorwyn.
I remember that time too, about 5 years ago. I blame EDH mostly, for both increasing the value of my collection (which won't be sold anyway, and hence matters little to me), and for making it expensive to actually find old cards that had marginal play value.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I don't even both looking in binders, I just ask people how long they've played/how old their cards are.
I think it's just supply shuffling around, and also like you said, EDH making crap cards worth money. Honestly, most of this junk would be bulk if it weren't for EDH, so people are using and distributing what, years ago, they'd normally have a 5-row of.
-Matt
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
As a guy who came back into Magic with little more than a collection of filler rares I'm not mad at EDH at all. I can't even begin to mention how many former nickel rares I've dumped @ $2-4 because of EDH. I mean peace out Mimano, Soltari Guerrillas, Erayo, ext.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
Did you guys get to watch the near instant sell out of Nether Shadows last night? Gawd, that was funny. Way to speculate on a card there's entirely too many of. It may be old, but there's a ton of those out there.
Yeah, I say that. Are people thinking it's the next Sylvan Library? I hope so, because I've got a billion of them that nobody has *ever* wanted!
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I'm going to cash those in right now if I were you, don't wanna miss a golden opportunity here.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
dahcmai
Anyway, I am starting to wonder something. I keep noticing I'm having a hard time finding cards that shouldn't be hard to find. Especially foils of older cards that no one really cares about. It's weird.
I had the same with cards like Diabolic Intent and Eladamri's Call.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Diabolic Intent, there's a prime example. It's not even an EDH fav. That should be easy to run across, but you never see them.
Eldamri's Call I can kind of understand due to EDH players picking them up and that old random life deck, but there should still be plenty out there.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
bruizar
I had the same with cards like Diabolic Intent and Eladamri's Call.
It may be the opposite that's the issue. I mean, how many old Meddling Mages do you see floating around? People write off old cards that aren't expensive and leave them boxed up somewhere.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
mchainmail
It may be the opposite that's the issue. I mean, how many old Meddling Mages do you see floating around? People write off old cards that aren't expensive and leave them boxed up somewhere.
This. I am currently selling off most of my collection. While doing this I have created a shoebox of cards not worth selling. Rather hold on to em and hope a card or two out of the hundreds will go the way of dark depths(junk to gold). I was glad to finally take my hive minds out of the junk box and unload Em while everyone scoops them up.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Ok so mtgsalvation has an official rumor posted by the admins that "hook" block after innistrad will feature ravnica duals. Looks like wizards is going all out to support modern. If this doesn't confirm a transition from online to paper for modern, I don't know what does. My question is what is the worth of the rav duals and is it worth it to pick then up now? I would say YES. It will not be reprinted multiple times like in a core set, so it will always retain value. However, it has been Printed before in rav. Look at solemn simulacrum. The card is shooting up like crazy. Rav duals will be played in Edh (which is basically the reason rav duals still have value), modern and briefly in standard. They will be extremely hot. Same goes with Zendikat fetches. Im going to predict ons fetch reprints soon as well.
Thoughts?
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
What makes you think they will support Modern? They said this about Choose your own standard also and that turned out to just be a made up format for a one shot. (though I really liked that idea). I actually wouldn't like Modern much.
Anyway, Ravnica duals go up decently anyway since they are one of the best replacements for regular duals if you can't afford them. If anything the tabletop crowd loves the rav ones. So easy to trade.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Mainly because extended sucks and there is huge interest in modern. Modern is now more played online compared to legacy! That's a scary statistic. Rav duals are EDH gold, everyone needs them for Edh. Rav duals + fetches are really important colour fixers in that format. I see no risk in picking rav duals up now at the 8-10 mark. They're likely to hit 20 eventually.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ivanpei
Ok so mtgsalvation has an official rumor posted by the admins that "hook" block after innistrad will feature ravnica duals. Looks like wizards is going all out to support modern. If this doesn't confirm a transition from online to paper for modern, I don't know what does. My question is what is the worth of the rav duals and is it worth it to pick then up now? I would say YES. It will not be reprinted multiple times like in a core set, so it will always retain value. However, it has been Printed before in rav. Look at solemn simulacrum. The card is shooting up like crazy. Rav duals will be played in Edh (which is basically the reason rav duals still have value), modern and briefly in standard. They will be extremely hot. Same goes with Zendikat fetches. Im going to predict ons fetch reprints soon as well.
Thoughts?
If the September 2012 set is as good as Ravnica to draft, has the Duals as rare, and the distribution stays the same, they will savagely tank. Keep in mind they were R1s in Ravnica. So You would have a 2 in 111 chance of pulling a dual (assuming a printrun similar to Zendikar). In Ravnica, you had a 1 in 88 chance of pulling a dual.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Mr.C
If the September 2012 set is as good as Ravnica to draft, has the Duals as rare, and the distribution stays the same, they will savagely tank. Keep in mind they were R1s in Ravnica. So You would have a 2 in 111 chance of pulling a dual (assuming a printrun similar to Zendikar). In Ravnica, you had a 1 in 88 chance of pulling a dual.
Right, and if Wizards reprints Force of Will and Wasteland in M13, those will tank too.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If there is enough demand, I highly doubt they'll tank. Sfm is gone from standard, is a rare and widely cracked (thanks Jace). Sfm is played in legacy, modern, Edh. The price is still solid. If rav duals are reprinted (non core set) it will be fairly valuable because the demand will be huge. Around 20 during standard and 10-15 once it rotates. If modern becomes popular, they'll stay at 15-20 and appreciate gradually IMO.
If the rav duals were in a core set, then yes they will tank due to being reprinted over and over again. As a one off reprint, I think its safe to pick em up.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Tha Gunslinga
Right, and if Wizards reprints Force of Will and Wasteland in M13, those will tank too.
So you're saying they would be $65 and $45 respectively as rares? I can see that as mythics, but not as rares.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ivanpei
If there is enough demand, I highly doubt they'll tank. Sfm is gone from standard, is a rare and widely cracked (thanks Jace). Sfm is played in legacy, modern, Edh. The price is still solid. If rav duals are reprinted (non core set) it will be fairly valuable because the demand will be huge. Around 20 during standard and 10-15 once it rotates. If modern becomes popular, they'll stay at 15-20 and appreciate gradually IMO.
If the rav duals were in a core set, then yes they will tank due to being reprinted over and over again. As a one off reprint, I think its safe to pick em up.
Eh, fetchlands are of similar rarity and are of the same kind of demand that shocklands will be, so compare to those. Only difference here is zendikar fetchlands had similar counterparts printed, while shocklands will have exact copies reprinted. My guess is shocklands will have a similar price to new fetches. So roughly ten bucks. What are the shocklands costing now?
Roughly ten bucks. You are better off investing in oil.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ivanpei
Mainly because extended sucks and there is huge interest in modern. Modern is now more played online compared to legacy! That's a scary statistic. Rav duals are EDH gold, everyone needs them for Edh. Rav duals + fetches are really important colour fixers in that format. I see no risk in picking rav duals up now at the 8-10 mark. They're likely to hit 20 eventually.
I think that any lands printed at rare in a large set would likely settle at $5-10.
The Zendikar fetchlands are probably the most playable cycle of lands in every single format, including Vintage, Legacy, Extended, Standard, EDH, etc. (yes, they see more play than dual lands in eternal formats, plus see play in newer formats where duals are not legal). They could be had for $8-10, which in my opinion is a hardcap for how much a rare land can be worth now in new sets (assuming those sets get opened as much as Zendikar, which is a safe assumption if they do reprint allied fetchlands, shocklands, duals, etc.). Moreover, unlike a hypothetical reprint of Onslaught fetches or Ravnica block shocklands, Zendikar enemy fetchlands were original at the time, which means it isn't competing with a large existing supply; that factor would further drive down the price of any reprinted lands.
There was a time when cards like Reflecting Pool, painlands, shocklands, etc. would cost over $10-15 while they were legal in Standard. Those days are gone with the new mythic rarity and the smaller sets. M10 and Scars block duals can easily be had for $1-4.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Firstly, if the shock lands do see a reprint as a rare, The value of the cards goes down significantly. New sets get openned so much more than before and the hit ratio to get a specific shock would certainly be higher if it were a rare. Even if they don't see reprints, I think the shocks will be hyped more than they are worth. I think most people here see shock lands as slightly bad duals. They arent. They are a completely different card. If modern becomes a format in paper, I bet the shocks play a role, but not like duals do for legacy. The real duals have relatively few drawbacks, the only one of significance being that they are non-basic. They have no contenders for thier slot.
Unlike dual lands, there really are good alternatives for the shocks. When I say alternatives, I don't mean poor mans shock lands, I mean legitimate substitutes that have advantages over the shock lands. Taking five life so you can Thoughtsieze turn one is a hefty price. How much value is there in 2 life? All I can say is that 10% of your life is not trivial.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If shocklands do see reprinted, i would dump them as quickly as possible. They will go up in price initially, then they will drop down to $8-$15 the most due to overabundance of supplies by cracking packs since the set will be hot.
I predict it will exactly become like the Zenikar fetchlands price trend. People preordered them and caused the prices to went up really high. Just look at how much they are now.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I'd buy/trade for ZEN fetches after they rotate. They might go down but probably not much. Regardless most people won't value them too highly so they should be pretty easy to get a hold of. They might not drop at all, but pick em up anyways. They won't get any cheaper or used less.
On the other hand, ONS fetches have been slowly creeping up. Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are both 30. For cards that have been played as heavily and consistently as these do you think that this is their ceiling? I do not. Especially since they've been 25 for so long.
Dark Confidant is also up to 40. Jumped another 5 dollars... in the last few days, maybe a week. Again, this was pretty easy to see since Dark Confidant is the best creature in the game and sees and as much play as Tarmogoyf from an older set. Probably hits 50 easily, maybe more. Especially if Modern or Overextended is a format.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
If there is a "deck to beat" in Standard and it runs 4x of a shock land the price could go as high as $15. I don't see the price for shocks ever breaking that. Modern as a format depends on the shocklands staying low. Don't expect shock lands to ever pass $20 as long as WotC is pushing Modern. What's likely to happen is WotC will leave the current M12 duals in M13/M14 to keep demand for shocks low in standard since it seems pretty obvious they are more interested in increasing their availability then anything else. In that case the on color ones will be under $10 for sure.
Either way shock lands are a fool's bet. Best case scenario you sell them when the set is spoiled and maybe double your money in 2 years (If you're lucky). One thing for sure though, if shocklands make ANY gains because of modern a reprint will completely wipe that out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Amon Amarth
I'd buy/trade for ZEN fetches after they rotate. They might go down but probably not much. Regardless most people won't value them too highly so they should be pretty easy to get a hold of. They might not drop at all, but pick em up anyways. They won't get any cheaper or used less.
On the other hand, ONS fetches have been slowly creeping up. Flooded Strand and Polluted Delta are both 30. For cards that have been played as heavily and consistently as these do you think that this is their ceiling? I do not. Especially since they've been 25 for so long.
Dark Confidant is also up to 40. Jumped another 5 dollars... in the last few days, maybe a week. Again, this was pretty easy to see since Dark Confidant is the best creature in the game and sees and as much play as Tarmogoyf from an older set. Probably hits 50 easily, maybe more. Especially if Modern or Overextended is a format.
Zen fetches seem like a good idea, plenty of Standard only players will be dumping them when they rotate. Onslaught fetches are worth every penny if you play, but NO WAY would I speculate on them if I were you. It's one of those things where it's not IF they will be reprinted it's WHEN.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Amon Amarth
Dark Confidant is also up to 40. Jumped another 5 dollars... in the last few days, maybe a week.
They're still ebaying for $28-30, which is flat from the last few weeks. Some playsets have been hitting 140/set, but I'm not seeing 40 as the set price.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
I don't see how Modern will be a success if a lot of cards don't get reprinted like Tarmogoyf, Dark Confidant etc. Wizards says they want to lower the price of entry but this won't happen if they don't reprint a lot of what will probably be staples unless of course said staples are banned. They also would have to reprint every several years as well in order to keep prices down such as the Ravnica duals etc. Otherwise, it will just become Legacy pricing after several years have passed with no reprints. Wizards probably shot themselves in the foot stating that the purpose of Modern is to lower cost of entry when in fact, with no reprints the prices will actually rise...I have no doubt in my mind that Dark Confidant and/or Tarmogoyf will hit three digits if Modern becomes legal with no reprints of said cards. They already saw how much Jace TMS went for in Standard at its peak...why would they want to repeat a mistake like that again? Its either ban or reprint.
Another thing is that they can't actually reprint said cards in a 'Standard' legal set unless they know for sure they won't be 'broken' in that format. They also can't just reprint said cards in a 'From the Vault' set that only goes to the LGS since that will be a very limited print run and will not make much of a dent in the supply. So, Wizards if they reprint said cards will have to probably opt for a set that can go to major retailers ala 'Commander', or Premium Deck Series (without the crappy foils...yeah I hate foils!) where said cards are only Modern/Legacy/Vintage legal. That is pretty much the only way they can reprint the cards and keep the prices low for Modern to succeed. Otherwise, it will be just like Legacy several years down the road when prices are through the roof due to the lack of supply and high demand(if Modern actually becomes really popular) and thus becoming what Wizards didn't want to happen in the first place.
I'd play Modern if Wizards really went out of their way in order to lower the cost of entry and thus allowing reprints of staples mentioned herein and keeping the prices low. But if they don't stick with that mantra, what's the point? I'd rather just play Legacy then and play with my dual lands with no drawbacks, Force of Will, etc.
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Re: Raise, raise, raise. The price of cardboard
The Duel Decks are likely the best way to reprint cards if you don't want them affecting standard. If reprinting in Standard isn't an issue, then putting them in a core set is best since those only stay around for just over a year now.
