[Deck] Belcher

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Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin

Well, if Anusien said it...

Seriously, here's the thing: Drawing cards might never be bad, but having the cards you actually need in your hand is pretty much always better. With 11 kills and 49 mana, you can look at your hand and know if you have it or not. With Street Wraith, you can't. There's no earthly reason to run the card in this deck, as it eliminates one of the greatest strengths it has.
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No one is basing whether or not they should keep a hand on Street Wraith, they're basing whether or not they should keep a hand on the other six cards. If you can't look at six cards and decide whether or not those six cards are good enough to keep a hand on, you shouldn't be playing this deck to begin with.

There's a definite reason to include Street Wraith, for the 8 cards that Dark Ritual and Wild Cantor requires, it nets an average of +1 mana with a standard deviation of 1, while for 4 cards that Street Wraith averages almost .66 mana source (which could be a Seething Song, Lion's Eye Diamond or second Right of Flame etc.) and reduces the chances of a failed Belcher activation by at least the rate of the Taiga (I think it's 17 percent if you fetch the Bayou and twice that if you fetch the Taiga). The net gain off of just 4 cards for Street Wriath is almost higher than the net gain off of 8 cards for Dark Ritual and Wild Cantor, so clearly there's a reason to consider the card.

I think it's pretty clear to any one that actually puts in the time to PT this deck that Serum Powder and Street Wraith are incredibly good cards.

Comments such as

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Originally Posted by BreathWeapon

If you can't look at six cards and decide whether or not those six cards are good enough to keep a hand on, you shouldn't be playing this deck to begin with.

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are rude and condescending. You do not need to make them and they will not convince anyone of your arguments.

-PR

How do you guys feel about Brightstone Ritual? In the sb it can come in against goblins to combo off nearly on its own as a mana source. It gets you mana for your EtW tokens to get the belcher kill should the ground pounding stall out.

If only it was a sorcery..

Whats everyones sb looking like right now?

Without black Id imagine Xantids are in as 4 of's. What are people playing as wish targets? Is armageddon worth it?

simple things first:
Brightstone ritual is not worth it. You are trying to go off turn 2 at the latest, which means there will not be enough gobbos in play for brighstone to pay for itself. Also, goblins is a pretty easy MU; and we need more cards against the poorer ones. Also, it is an instant (as you pointed out...). Goblin War Strike works nicely when your goblin horde gets overpowered.

armageddon is an interesting idea. However, if you cut the wild cantors, finding white is gonna be considerably harder. Geddon definately protects you a good bit, however it is insanely expensive (wish + cast) and the wrong color...

I would just like to say, i have been testing Breath's list for the past 2 weeks or so. It does take alot more skill as to what to mull, what to keep, and when to take a chance on that wraith. However, i have found it lacking, mainly due to the serum powders. Powder has been very unsatifactory here, and i really feel there are better cards to be had. After a good amount of testing i feel confident in saying that powder doesnt belong.

Right now i think CRET belcher > wraith & powder belcher. I am starting to test with the changes listed below.

If you want wraith i think the best option is:
-4 dark ritual
-4 wild cantor
+4 Street wraith
+1 Tinder wall
+3 xantid swarm

Those 3 swarms could be kept as cantors, depending on the meta. ATM i feel combo is being severly hated, with many decks running FoW and Daze.


In not sure about a SB once black is gone. Maybe something like this:
4 Shattering Spree
4 Pyroblast
1 REB
1 ETW
1 pyroclasm
1 goblin war strike
1 simplify
1 deconstruct
1 duress

you really miss that infernal tutor, but i kept 1 duress because you can still cast it. It was invaluable for me, and i think its best kept just in case...

How can you PT with a list for 2 weeks that's only been posted for less than 5 days? Regardless, care to explain why you think Serum Powder was bad in the deck and back it up with math? I've been playing with Serum Powder since last Winter, and short of the less than 1/13 times I top deck it, which is less than the number of times I draw a hand with out a win condition or just a bad hand, I've never felt as tho' the card was disadvantageous to the deck. The card advantage, card quality and tutoring Serum Powder creates is invaluable. It does all sorts of things to make the deck more consistent, like switching in between the three win conditions or increasing the odds of drawing a Land Grant to decrease the odds of misfiring a Belcher etc.

I just don't see people's reasoning for dismissing a free, uncounterable 7 card tutor that's replacing junk in the deck. Just from the numbers, the amount of times you'll top deck it as a dead card are less than the number of times it'll save you a card, and even when you do draw it, it's not entirely a dead card, because you can still cast it to generate mana and storm. I would have guessed people would have cut Street Wraith before they cut Serum Powder from that list, because the card is just so unbelievably strong once you play with it long enough to realize it's strengths. Just taking the list above and replace 4 Street Wraith with 4 Xantid Swarm, then look at how Serum Powder can be used to just find the bugs and either Empty the Warrens or Burning Wish in a six card hand against control. Look at how Serum Powder can be used to find a Belcher and LED in a six card hand and increase the turn 1 win percentage.

Serum Powder is the most skill intensive and powerful card in the deck. You get to set a specific objective for your starting hand by either keeping your Serum Powder hand, RFGing to seven cards and then mulliganing back down to six cards or chaining multiple Serum Powders and achieve it. Considering the deck is perfectly lethal at 5 cards, and half of your games you get to factor in the draw for another tier 2 mana source or fuel for Chrome Mox, you can just abuse Serum Powder and your mulligan for a TKO shot at the opponent by mulliganing in response to his mulligans, or lack of mulligans.

All of your actual skills with this deck are in the mulligan, and to an extent, in the order you play your cards to bluff Empty the Warrens, so you really love any card that gives you more decisions to pick and choose from when you're lethal with only 5 cards.

I figure that having the deck list first will help interprit the rest of this reply:

4 Goblin Charbelcher
4 Burning Wish
3 Empty the Warrens

4 Xantid Swarm

4 Street Wraith
4 Seething Song
4 Desperate Ritual
4 Right of Flame
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
4 Chrome Mox
4 Lotus Petal
4 Tinder Wall
4 Simain Spirit Guide
4 Elvish Spirit Guide
4 Land Grant

1 Taiga

In my playtesting of the deck sw seems to be very good. I dont play black because as said before, contorting the manabase is not always reliable, and it adds bayou to the equation.

In the list of R/G I seem left with 4 slots, I dont think that both serum powder and sw go well together but they, on there own have uses.

The four slots I am talking about were 3 cantors and a tiaga. I dont really see the need to play more then 1 land anyway. It just means that when belcher goes of it is a gamble, however small i dont know the math of doing 18- damage and not being able to activate again before they disable the belcher, if you win right then and there. I have yet to lose a game with the one land version due to having double land grant kill me.

Also it seems that the defeat of this deck is FoW and other permision. In the testing Red Elemental Blast had a couple of times were the extra mana was not there and when the deck did have mana to play it, it wasnt there. Xantid swarm solves all of the problems that a Red Elemental blast does short of killing Meddling Mage but there are sideboards and wishes for that, if you dont have another win condition then and there.

Xantid swarm also makes people keep there swords in. That means they have less offense in there deck to kill you and gives you more time to go off if you get thwarted, even if you dont draw Xantid the rest of the match there knowledge of it will effect the game.

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Originally Posted by BreathWeapon

All of your actual skills with this deck are in the mulligan, and to an extent, in the order you play your cards to bluff Empty the Warrens, so you really love any card that gives you more decisions to pick and choose from when you're lethal with only 5 cards.

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No, I love a card that that actually makes the deck better. The recurring problem with your assertions is that you think making the deck more difficult to play improves it. In fact, as should be obvious, the opposite is true; the more complicate you make the deck, the more likely it is that you'll make a play mistake at the wrong moment. Hence, it's only worthwhile if it legitimately improves the power of the deck, which Street Wraith and Serum Powder don't- they just add eight cards that aren't mana or kill conditions, and remove the deck's primary strength of being able to tell from looking at your hand where you stand in terms of being able to kill the opponent. Making decisions more difficult and skill intensive is a drawback, not a bonus.

Bearassisin is right. Not only do you advocate increasing the skill factor of the deck, but adding powder and wraith increases the luck factor as well. The number of games you will loose because of play errors, and unlucky draws will go way up; even the best pilot of the deck is going to make a few errors. That can be considered as lowering consistancy, which should be avoided at all costs.

@antimegas - that is the list i would suggest if you really want SW. I am starting think pyroblast might be better in the Xantid slot. Xantid is better against a deck that has numerous counters, because it prevents all spells from being cast. However, if someone has numerous counters, they will simply counter the Xantid; not to mention xantid is target to the massive amount of creature control in this format.

Pyroblasts are better against deck that only run 4x FoW. If you can counter their first counter, chances are they wont have any others. Pyroblast translates to a better MU (preboard) against FoW affinity, faerie stompy, aluren, landstill, counterbalance decks...etc At the very least, pyroblast can target your own permanents to pump the storm count.

Perhaps the most important thing is that pyroblast lets you go off a turn faster. Also, you don't have to cast pyroblast, you just have to hold on to it in case.

Luck has nothing to do with Serum Powder or Street Wraith and I don't think that skill has anything to do with Serum Powder or Street Wraith either, it's just a question of using statistics and experience to guide you thru' your opening hands. You shouldn't make any mistakes when you are playing with this deck, because all of your decisions are based off of the math and mechanics behind it, and you get the longest possible rest period in between all of your matches. Saying that Serum Powder and Street Wraith don't legitimately improve the deck is complete nonsense, because you're clearly improving the deck by decreasing the number of mulligans, increasing the ratio of mana to threats and removing failed Belcher activations from the Bayou. Saying that increasing your options only increases your opportunities for making mistakes over your ability to out play your opponent is laziness.

Go look at TMD, the Vintage Belcher players there are using Serum Powder to.

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Originally Posted by BreathWeapon

Go look at TMD, the Vintage Belcher players there are using Serum Powder to.

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Vintage Belcher lists also don't run Empty the Warrens or Burning Wish as Win conditions. Serum Powder in those decks increases the number of "win" conditions from 9 (4 Belchers, 1 Tinker, 1 Demonic Tutor, 1 Memory Jar, 1 Wheel of Fortune, 1Time Twister) to 13. Legacy Belcher already plays 11 Win conditions and doesn't require anymore. By adding Serum Powder you are diluting the mana acceleration portion of the deck thus creating more mulligans. So you are increasing the number of mulligans you are going to have to take in order to allievate the pain of Mulliganing.

Also you don't seem to see the problem with running both Street Wraith AND Serum Powder. You have now increased the number of cards drawn off of Street Wraith that can be useless by 4 cards.

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Luck has nothing to do with Serum Powder or Street Wraith and I don't think that skill has anything to do with Serum Powder or Street Wraith either, it's just a question of using statistics and experience to guide you thru' your opening hands. You shouldn't make any mistakes when you are playing with this deck, because all of your decisions are based off of the math and mechanics behind it, and you get the longest possible rest period in between all of your matches.

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How is going from a hand that is certain to do something to a hand that has a dead card in Serum Powder or a unknown card in Street Wraith not increasing luck?

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Originally Posted by Ewokslayer

Vintage Belcher lists also don't run Empty the Warrens or Burning Wish as Win conditions. Serum Powder in those decks increases the number of "win" conditions from 9 (4 Belchers, 1 Tinker, 1 Demonic Tutor, 1 Memory Jar, 1 Wheel of Fortune, 1Time Twister) to 13. Legacy Belcher already plays 11 Win conditions and doesn't require anymore. By adding Serum Powder you are diluting the mana acceleration portion of the deck thus creating more mulligans. So you are increasing the number of mulligans you are going to have to take in order to allievate the pain of Mulliganing.

Also you don't seem to see the problem with running both Street Wraith AND Serum Powder. You have now increased the number of cards drawn off of Street Wraith that can be useless by 4 cards.


How is going from a hand that is certain to do something to a hand that has a dead card in Serum Powder or a unknown card in Street Wraith not increasing luck?

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1) Vintage Belcher does use ETW and Burning Wish as win conditions, altho' some lists don't in favor of using the Pacts.

2) That's assuming that the sole purpose of Serum Powder is to find a win condition and not find a winning hand.

3) There is difference between removing a mana source and removing Dark Ritual and Wild Cantor from the deck. A mana source has no draw back, while Dark Ritual requires one of 13 other cards to be cast, can't be used to cast other rituals and it forces the deck to include Bayou and Wild Cantor. Bayou in and of itself causes game losses do to failed Belcher activations, and Wild Cantor with out Dark Ritual is worse than Serum Powder at causing mulligans. At least with Serum Powder, the card can RFG the hand, reduce the maximum deck size and then redraw the hand +1 card.

4) I do understand the problem with using Serum Powder and Street Wraith, and I also understand that I took that problem into consideration when calculating the net gain of Street Wraith and still found it to be positive. It's not as simple as drawing into 4 more dead cards, because those 4 more dead cards can RFG themselves from the deck before Street Wraith is factored into the equation. That said, using Serum Powder and Street Wraith together isn't an argument for discluding either Serum Powder or Street Wraith from the deck, because there's nothing that can replace either card and affect the goldfish. I often SB out Street Wraith for Xantid Swarm, but that's neither here nor there when the sole purpose of the MD is to maximize it's speed.

5) First, why would you go from a hand that is certain to do something to another hand in the first place? Second, how is a six card hand any less likely to do something than a six card hand + Serum Powder or Street Wraith? Third, there's no guarantee that the Dark Ritual or Wild Cantor replacing Serum Powder or Street Wraith will do anything either, and in Wild Cantor's case it most likely wont.

I did some playtesting with the original list (page 1) and I just like to state, that Dark Ritual was a dead card in some matches, more often than not, and having the Bayou did cost me 1 game.
I'm not proposing Street Wraith and/or Serum Powder since I didn't test either. I think Dark Ritual and to a lesser extent Wild Cantor and the 2nd land are the weakest cards in the deck. I already did +1 Wall/-1 Cantor and I'm thinking about SW in place of Dark Ritual, too. IMO it comes down to see which hands are better with a Dark Ritual and which are better with a random card (most likely mana). From the looks I don't like Powder as I reason with IBA and others that improving required skill does not necessarily improve the deck.

The number of people that just look at Serum Powder and dismiss it with out ever bothering to test Serum Powder to confirm their suspicions is disheartening, but I'm just going to let this go for the moment.

Onto some rather interesting MD/SB tech, I think Leyline of the Meek is an incredibly strong card in this deck, because it doubles the storm count of Empty the Warrens in order to increase the power of a low storm count Empty the Warrens and win one turn faster, which can be used to out race 2cc removal on the play, 3cc removal on the draw and give you an edge in the combo mirror. You're resistant to Engineered Plague, you're immune to Sandstorm and against Goblins you're resistant to Mogg Fanatic, Pyrokinesis and immune to Goblin Sharpshooter while being able to trade with any Goblin on the board. If you manage to draw 2 of them, then you're immune to Pyroclasm.

You've also got really good odds of drawing your Leyline of the Meek if you use Serum Powder, and you can mess around with Roar of the Wurm and Grizzly Fate as alternate win conditions to get around Pyroclasms and Stifles.

The card is a free, uncounterable Time Walk for Empty the Warrens that makes it resistant/immune to some of the most prevalent removal against it while turning mediocre hands into awesome hands. You've got the obvious problem that the Leyline of the Meek doesn't affect Goblin Charbelcher, but keeping a hand with Leyline of the Meek and Goblin Charbelcher usually means the opponent will counter the third/fourth mana source, saving your Goblin Charbelcher, and dig for Empty the Warrens removal. It also means that after your opponent counters the third/fourth mana source, you're more likely to top deck your way back into the game by redrawing some mana and casting a more powerful Empty the Warrens. You can also always imprint the card on Chrome Mox if you can't find another use for it. It essentially feels like Empty the Warren's version of Lion's Eye Diamond.

Our teams been doing extensive testing with the SW//Powder version of the deck and it certainly opens the margine of early threat density. All of this decks strength comes from the first 1-2 turns. If opponents from most any deck can stay alive till turns 3+ they begin to stabilize. Serum Powder helps focus on the immediate opening hand you need to win ASAP.

We've been throwing away many hands and thinning the deck of a fair portion of cards. It only takes more attention when you draw your hands. Laziness and neglect of the decks workings can open you up to wrong decisions when playing Serum Powder.

We've been very happy with it.

The Counterbalance Thresh matchup is near unwinnable. White thresh has Stifle, Needle, Fow, Mage, and a huge clock (goyf). REB's dont seem to be enough to stop them so we might go with the 8 blast plan.

Xantid Swarm sucks since he cant be cast off Rituals and can be a pain to cast regardless.

Red versions of thresh crush you terribly with Pyroclasms.

Thank god some one else has come on board the Serum Powder band wagon.

I don't think that the aggro-control match up is unwinnable, Belcher and Warrens should resolve before Counterabalance and Meddling Mage are even relevant, being on the draw equalizes Daze and that just leaves Force of Will, Stifle, Engineered Explosives and Pithing Needle to deal with. Engineered Explosives can be raced with Leyline of the Meek, Pithing Needle is unlikely to be included over Engineered Explosives because of the disproportionate ratio of Empty the Warrens to Goblin Charbelcher and Force of Will and Stifle can be counter acted with the 8 Blast plan.

Right now I'm using the version I posted with -4 Street Wraith for +4 Leyline of the Meek, 8 Blasts in the SB for control and 4 Goblin Warstrike in the SB for testing. I don't know if Leyline of the Meek is better than Street Wraith, or if they're even comparable, but I suggest trying it out for good measure. No one expects you to be able to out race their 2/3cc mass removal, the amount of MWS disconnects I get is hilarious.

1x Rite of Flame in the SB as a Wish target has worked well for me in testing. It helps smooth out hands with too many win conditions, because it allows Wish to double as mana and storm builder.

So I've been playing this deck for a while and have been pretty happy with it, I'm running the original version w/ -4 Dark Rit -1 Bayou for +4 Street Wraith + 1 Tinder Wall. I'm considering using Serum Powder rather than Wild Cantor but in goldfishing and playing I havn't had a problem drawing a win con in my original 7 and or my mull to 6 to want to add Powder over Cantor. Cantor sometimes can transfer mana to turn 2 and let me win then or turn ESG into red mana letting me combo off, and of course it can add to storm making more mans.

What I wanted to ask people about was their sideboards, there seems to be a lot of variability here and I just wanted to ask for some suggestions.

My current SB is:

4 Pyroblast
4 Shattering Spree
1 Empty the Warrens
1 Infernal Tutor
1 Pyroclasm
1 Simplify
3 ??????????

I think these 12 cards are pretty much standard, but I'm not sure about the last 3 slots. I'm currently considering Goblin War Strike, Duress, Cave-In, Deconstruct, Reverent Silence, and any number of Xantid Swarms/REBs as possible. Some people seem to like Goblin War Strike but I really don't see when it would be good, lets say I ETW for 8 goblins (pretty bad hand), this kills the opponent in 3 attack phases from now. For War Strike to win one turn earlier, I would need to topdeck Burning Wish AND 3 mana to be able to cast the Wish and Strike, all in the 3 turns when the goblins are swinging in, all of this after going off w/ ETW which likely emptyed my hand. This seems incredibly unlikely to me, and the odds of Strike mattering get even worse if you ETW for 10+ b/c then you only need 2 attacks to win. I just can't think of a situation where the card would be useful, I figured maybe in the face of Ensnaring Bridge/Elephant Grass/Propaganda/Ghostly Prison/Solitary Confinement that War Strike could shine, but then wouldnt I rather Burning Wish for artifact or enchantment kill? I guess Simplify wouldnt be as good against enchantress b/c they can sac another enchantment, but Strike wouldnt help vs. Confinement either way, so I guess War Strike really only helps versus Elephant Grass or if you draw into the perfect 2-3 cards and NEED to win before the next attack phase, doesn't really seem worth it to me but I can't think of what else is better in SB other than maybe REBs.

So as of now my final 3 cards are Cave-In, Duress, and Goblin War Strike, what does everyone elses board look like/what are your thoughts?

I have been playing with the War Strike, and it has been alright. In testing against TES it has been randomly good, and it can break through to an opponent if the board stalls out, which can happen with a slower hand. It's pretty narrow, but it has been nice to have sometimes. It is a Wish target, so unless you have another card you really want to run over it, Goblin War Strike has been randomly useful and never really bad, because you simply wish for something else.

The big thing to remember is to board out Seething Song against control and board in Red Elemental Blast instead.

Diminishing Returns MUST be in the SB so the deck can build up to storm 10 against Goblins game 3 and not lose to Pyrokinesis or Goblin Sharpshooter.
Crash is tech in the SB because Burning Wish can be cast for free after Land Grant for Taiga, Spirit Guide and Burning Wish for Crash on the following turn. Some people SB in Shattering Spree to try and save game 2 against Chalice of the Void.

Leyline of the Meek is a generically good SB card to use against any non-blue deck if you MD Pyro Blast.

Xantid Swarm is only good when you're on the play game 3 and your opponent has SBed out his Swords to Plowshares, can't Daze it and it doesn't Time Walk him into Meddling Mage

Right now I have 4 MD Serum Powder and 4 MD Leyline of the Meek with a SB of 8 Blasts, 4 Xantid Swarm, 1 Empty the Warrens, 1 Diminishing Returns and 1 Crash.

The SB plan is game 2 on the draw SB out Leyline of the Meek and Seething Song and SB in 8 Blasts and game 3 SB out Leyline of the Meek and SB in 4 Xantid Swarm. I really don't care if Goblins wins game 2 off of Chalice of the Void, because Pyrokinesis and Goblin Sharpshooter are just as big of a problem as Chalice of the Void and you need an answer to them if you want to be able to rely on Empty the Warrens on the play game 3.

@ Breathweapon:

Diminishing Returns doesn't seem so hot to me, the only way I can reliably cast it is popping an LED for UUU, and then once I cast it and it resolves I could just draw into 7 mana or a 7 card hand that doesnt work, wouldnt it usually always be better to just Wish for ETW and win? I guess it may be useful if a creature route wont work to find belcher but I have Infernal Tutor SB for that. Oh and why did you say you need 10 storm vs goblins? I think you worry too much about the goblin matchup, no one plays Sharpshooter, pyrokenisis doesnt hurt much, and its not like you cant use Belcher to win, 4 Burning Wish ---> IT and 4 Belcher means 8 ways to find Belcher if your really that concerned gobs will get a Sharpshooter online in time for 12-16 goblins to not beat them.

Leyline of the Meek seems ok against E. Plague, I don't know why MD at all, that 1 turn quicker kill prolly isn't worth the hands that Leyline will make subpar. Against Plague I think that Wishing for Simplify/Hull Breach, racing, or going for Belcher kill seems like a good enough plan

I think I'm going to go with more REBs rather than Xantid Swarm but both are good if you have the space obviously.

Crash is an instant btw so I don't know why you have 1 sideboard.

Damnit, I had Crash confused with another card, I haven't been this pissed off since I found out Hunting Pack was an instant.

No, it's not better to wish for an Empty the Warrens game two/three on the play, because you have to assume that your non-blue opponent mulliganed into an answer for Empty the Warrens and is waiting/praying for you to cast it. So you either have to get to a Goblin Charbelcher or a 10+ storm Empty the Warrens or lose the game/match. Infernal Tutor is terrible, this deck can't reach 8 mana on the play with 7 cards consistently, and even if you can, you're a sitting duck for a Tin-Street Hooligan.

No one is ever going to pre-emptively cast an Engineered Plague against you, and racing Engineered Plague, Pyroclasm and Engineered Explosives is exactly what Leyline of the Meek allows you to do. You'll notice that no card that you can put into that slot can actually increase the likely hood of you being able to keep your hand, you can't even afford to gamble with Street Wraith on the draw, so you may as well consider taking a free, uncounterable storm generator for Empty the Warrens.

As an aside, I think Oxidize is better than Shattering Spree in the SB, given the choice, RFGing an Elvish Spirit Guide is better than RFGing a Simian Spirit Guide more often than not.