I don't like playing only 18 lands while wanting to consistently hit as many lands as possible to play and abuse Swans (e.g. hitting the first 5 land drops to then have a backup Bolt (aka. Anc) in case they remove the Swans). I've played 20 lands in my last version and have recently moved down to 19, but my build is also more controlish than Adans so you could possibly also get away with playing 18.
The trick with Conflagerate is that you can discard it to your last copy of Chain of Plasma making it cost only 2 Red mana.
I agree that it is worse than Lightning Storm though as it is close to un-hardcastable whereas Lightning Storm still can be used as a crappy Bolt from time to time.
Adan mainly wants to play Conflagerate over L. Storm because he fears that you might fizzle due to not having enough lands. He has a point here, especially if you're playing against something with Life from the Loam, but as you only have to redirect the last copy of Chain of Plasma to your opponent's dome (17), swing with Swans (13) and then play L. Storm with 5 lands discarded (10, 0), you should always have enough lands as backup to neuter your opponents. As a last resort, you can still kill your opponent the next time you untap with all those additional burn spells you have drawn.
I think the discussion over Swans Thresh should be held in its own thread (
here) though, especially since the lists differ from the NQG norm by quite a margin (e.g. 8 burn spells but with Counterbalance).
I'm also promoting cutting Nimble Mongoose because you reach Threshold very slowly (no Predict, you want to save your Burn spells most of the time) leaving only the
standard Ug aggro control shell (cantrips/CounterTop/Goyfs etc) in common with NQG.
On the same account, I'm still sold on Daze not having a place in this deck: you want to develop your manabase and at least my list plays out much more controlish than your average NQG/r making the tempo setback quite harsh. Also, I've found that everyone automatically plays around Daze when they see that you're playing something with Cantrips and Blue Duals turning them into a virtual Time Walk even if you don't play them any more.
For reference, here's my list (still fluctuating heavily though):