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I'm pretty sure this was pointed out several dozen times in this thread alone (no offence though):Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias
- rule of thumb against non-combo/aggro-control/control/midrange aggro/...:
Take out the DR parts (2-3 Dread Return, 2-3 targets) - this plan is a solid choice 95% of the time. :cool:
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@all:
I know this is redundant but do you guys prefer a CarefulStudy-DeepAnus split like 2/3 or 3/2 or even 3/3?
Y'know, I just kind of scrolling through the last couple pages, are you folks going for the combo kill often? Or, like, at all? I just top 8'd the Mox Pearl event, and in 5 rounds of Swiss and top 8 (ended in the semi-finals unfortunately) I didn't once cast Dread Return.
Every game 1, and then in the game 2 or 3s against decks which 'fish by the third turn.
Granted, Dread Returning is not always necessary game 1, but without it, the random Extirpate on Ichorid or Propaganda can really wreck you.
That's because you only played against Threshold and Landstill. Including the combo kill is necessary against every deck out there - with the exception of Threshold and Landstill.Quote:
Originally Posted by lonelybaritone
So at the moment I am writing a primer for Dredge in German. For the Legacy list I've chosen this example (should be quite standard) and just wanted to ask here now, whether I've forgotten something important or if anything is strange in it.
4 City of Brass
4 Gemstone Mine
4 Cephalid Coliseum
4 Golgari Grave Troll
4 Stinkweed Imp
3 Golgari Thug
4 Putrid Imp
4 Lions Eye Diamond
4 Bridge from Below
4 Ichorid
4 Narcomoeba
4 Cabal Therapy
2 Dread Return
1 Flame Kin Zealot
1 Cephalid Sage
4 Breakthrough
3 Careful Study
2 Deep Analyis
SB:
4 Pithing Needle
4 Chain of Vapor
2 Ray of Revelation
4 Leyline of the Void
1 Woodfall Primus
Strange: The sideboard.
4 Leyline of the Void
Obvious:
- helps against Cephalid Breakfast
- helps against the mirror.
- helps against Affinity
Questionable:
- helps against Goblins - does it?
- helps against Zoo / random aggro - does it?
I don't know if there is any general consensus, but I've tested these matchups and came to the conclusion that it's much better to leave Leylines out. You don't mulligan for Leyline, Leyline doesn't make a hand keepable -> it's just an extra gimmick if you're lucky enough to get a keepable hand with Leyline. Otherwise, the consistency of the deck is affected in a bad way, since you have more dead cards you can dredge and you really don't want to hurt the deck's consistency in Aggro matchups. Leyline is a control card, but against Aggro you're playing straight combo and race them.
Test Leyline against aggro and decide if it's really worth sacrificing the consistency. The above mentioned "Obvious" does not justify its inclusion, those are 2 decks that see little to no play and the mirror. DON'T paste the list and write "4 Leyline of the Void - rocks the mirror, beats Breakfast and is great against Aggro to save your Bridges" without testing it thoroughly. If you do the testing and come to the conclusion that Leyline is good, include it in the list and write about your testing (and this won't be done with one or two sentences).
4 Pithing Needle
I still believe that Chalice of the Void is better. I believe that the majority of the Ichorid players also do so. I also know that I might be wrong. Again, test it against
> Decks that board in only 4 Crypt
> Decks packing Crypt + EE
> Decks packing Deed
> TES
> Belcher
> Painter
and come to your conclusions. If (after your testing) you believe that Pithing Needle is better, write about it. Again, this may not be a one-liner ("Needle is better than Chalice because it stops Crypt if you're on the draw").
This is, of course, if you want to write a good primer. There are always the "meh" primers floating around which in this case would say "Needle is better against Crypt if you're on the draw, it also stops Belcher. Chalice is better against Storm Combo and it also stops Engineered Explosives. It's a meta choice".
Yes it does. It keeps Mogg Fanatic (or any of their guys) from ever hitting the bin and taking out your bridges, allowing you to out-dude them and win a war of attrition with Zombie tokens. You obviously don't mulligan to find it, but it doesn't hurt your consistency as much as you think, and gives you an almost 40% chance of basically winning an attrition war (allowing you to play a more controlling role as opposed to having to push all in for the combo like you have to game 1 against aggro decks since you're racing them) if they aren't packing Extirpate for your Bridges.Quote:
Originally Posted by Brehn
I think Brehn is right with everything he said about Leyline. It just doesn't belong in the SB. Darkblast/Contagion however do, as they handle Fanatic as well as Lackey and Jailer.
Almost 40% - nah. I've given this deck:Quote:
Originally Posted by freakish777
4 Leyline
11 dredgers
4 Lion's Eye Diamond
8 Rainbow Lands
4 Cephalid Coliseum
8 Putrid Imp / Cabal Therapy ("Black Spells")
7 Breakthrough / Careful Study ("Blue Spells")
14 Blanks
with the following mulligan criteria which I think is appropriate for the Aggro matchup:
(Dredger, LED, 5 random) is keepable
(Dredger, Land, Blue Spell, 4 random) is keepable
(Dredger, Rainbow Land, Black Spell, 4 random) is keepable
to my Monte Carlo simulation program. This is what I've gotten:
5786434/20000000 is 28.93%. Not "nearly 40%".Quote:
Out of 20000000 attempts with 7 cards in hand we have received:
8067020 hands that were keepable but didn't contain Leyline.
4314278 hands that were keepable and had Leyline.
7618702 hands that were just plain bad and got sent back.
Out of 7618702 attempts with 6 cards in hand we have received:
2779442 hands that were keepable but didn't contain Leyline.
1093534 hands that were keepable and had Leyline.
3745726 hands that were just plain bad and got sent back.
Out of 3745726 attempts with 5 cards in hand we have received:
1124093 hands that were keepable but didn't contain Leyline.
297345 hands that were keepable and had Leyline.
2324288 hands that were just plain bad and got sent back.
Out of 2324288 attempts with 4 cards in hand we have received:
489054 hands that were keepable but didn't contain Leyline.
72149 hands that were keepable and had Leyline.
1763085 hands that were just plain bad and got sent back.
Out of 1763085 attempts with 3 cards in hand we have received:
191274 hands that were keepable but didn't contain Leyline.
9128 hands that were keepable and had Leyline.
1562683 hands that were just plain bad and got sent back.
Out of 1562683 attempts with 2 cards in hand we have received:
38790 hands that were keepable but didn't contain Leyline.
0 hands that were keepable and had Leyline.
1523893 hands that were just plain bad and got sent back.
Thoughts: Note that the probability of mulling into oblivion is 7.62% with this strategy. Also note that to reach these numbers, you'd probably have to sideboard like this:
-4 Dread Return package
-2 Deep Analysis
-2 combination of Bridge/Moeba/Ichorid
+4 Leyline of the Void
+4 Anti-hate cards
which is not exactly what you want to do. If you touch the core of the deck (which I've used here) while sideboarding, the numbers become even worse.
Question: Is this mulligan strategy ok for determining stuff? I feel like I wouldn't keep every hand with "Dredger, LED, 5 blank". Suggestions for improvements?
I would neither put in Leyline of the Void against goblins. Until now, I didn't know the probability to get Leyline and a keepable hand, but having played the goblin matchup several times in tournaments I came to the same
conclusion.
Furthermore I have to admit, that Leyline was definately the worst card in the sideboard as it was hardly used. Of course it is nice to have one against Cephalid Breakfast and not having them in the board is just like scooping up the mirror match.
But the games, where it would be nice to have them are by far outnumbered by entire tournaments in I didn't board them in once.
Concerning Darkblast and Contagion they are probably the right cards to replace Leyline of the Void in the sideboard.(I am rather for Contagion) But actually I'd still rather board in some anti-hate against decks where they could be relevant rather than
Darkblast and Contagion, at least against Goblins.
Usually I put in Chain of Vapor for the second game, if they play black and Pithing needle if they play RG/RW. Chain of Vapor can at least delay lackey by one turn, bounce fanatic before the combo but first and foremost helps you to get rid of leylines they might have.
Nonblack builds are more likely to be running Crypt than Leyline and therefore I think boarding in Needles is better here as you can also needle Fanatic if they don't have crypts.
The Leylines might be good as, Ichorid doesn't want to board in too many cards in one matchup, because it would weaken the engine of the deck too much. But still, Contation can also kill Magus of the Moon, Meddling Mage, Jailer, Fanatic and Lackey..... and all this for 0 mana. I'll try it.
In the Neelde VS Calice discussion I am clearly on the side of Needle. You told me to test it against
> Decks that board in only 4 Crypt
> Decks packing Crypt + EE
> Decks packing Deed
> TES
> Belcher
> Painter
(and I'll do so, but atm...)
In general I think, that in general Crypt shouldn't see much play, because it is really bad graveyard hate, and not good against Aggro Loam or ThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThresh, but people still play it, as it can be put into simply every deck due to it's CC 0.
I have to admit, that against decks packing Deed I would not put in Needle, because they play black and I'd be afraid of Leylines and put in some Chain of Vapor and Ray of Revelation to fight them and perhaps plagues.
Another valid point is, that there are only some decks playing Crypt and Explosives together.
On the one hand, there is ThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThreshThresh, where Chalice is much better as it prevents them from casting both their pieces of hate.
On the other hand there are decks including Crypt and Explosives, which actually do play lands producing colorless mana like Mishra's Factory or Wasteland. In combination with those colorless lands, Chalice set at 0 could first be blown up by Explosives and then they could lay down a Crypt, while Needle cound at least stop Explosives. Then in some cases, you could either find a second Needle to name Crypt with, or try to play arround it.
To be fair, that requires them to draw three separate cards to answer your 1.
I think chalice being good against extirpate and combo is probably the tipping point, because most games will be g3s anyway.
This is my SB:
4 Chalice of the Void
4 Pithing Needle
4 Chain of Vapor
2 Ray of Revelation
1 Ancient Grudge
I don't think Leylines are needed in the SB. They help with the aggro MU's, but for everything it does, Needle almost always does the same thing anyway (Needle on Fanatic, en-Kor, Ravager).
Granted it's a bit tougher to use, but Leyline just seems too narrow for me. The deck is already mulligan-prone, and having a mindset of mulling into a Leyline because you boarded them in takes away much of the explosiveness that the deck offers.
I don't think Chalice and Peedle are the way to go, you can't board in both of them anyway, so why waste slots? I would rather cut either Chalice or Needle and play some Contagion and Darkblast.Quote:
Originally Posted by kicks_422
Chalice comes in against combo (I can at least try, right?), backed up by a quick clock and a slew of Therapies. It also comes in if I'm on the play and I'm sure the opponent only has Crypts as hate.
So what do you need the Needle for? Imho you'd better play some removal for Jailer etc. instead of wasting slots. Sure Needles help against Keg, EE and Deed, but actually Deed is too slow and EE and Keg just kill your tokens, so you probably should go for the aggro plan.Quote:
Originally Posted by kicks_422
For Fanatic, Crypt (on the draw), and other random stuff. Chain of Vapor into Therapy is probably already enough for most permanent-based hate, including Jailers.Quote:
Originally Posted by jjjoness'
What should I replace the Chalices with anyway? I don't want combo to steamroll right through me, and Jailers aren't really played much to warrant 4 Darkblast/Contagion.
Pithing Needle and Leyline of the Void have been/are overrated, if you use anything, you use Tireless Tribe to circumvent Tormod's Crypt and Darkblast to circumvent Yixlid Jailor (or kill Goblins and Cephalid Illusionist etc.) while maintaining your deck's consistency.
If it's not Leyline of the Void or Planar Void etc., then you shouldn't be dedicating a "hard answer" to their "soft disruption."
Sorry, how does Tireless Tribe circumvent Crypt?
You dredge bit by bit with out discarding your entire hand, that way they have to break Crypt prematurely.Quote:
Originally Posted by kicks_422
The problem with not having a hard answer to crypt is that a lot of decks that play it can either find multiples (Trinket Mage stuff ), have too much speed/other lock pieces that can wreck you if they buy time with a crypt(Stompy, Stax), or can recur the damn thing forever. (Academy ruins, mostly.)