I have tested both Predict and Standstill. Standstill is better. But it is also more difficult to play properly. If played correctly, Standstill will generate better results.
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I have tested both Predict and Standstill. Standstill is better. But it is also more difficult to play properly. If played correctly, Standstill will generate better results.
Standstill can get pitched to FoW if the board state is bad. Or shuffled away with brainstorm if its a dead card. It's a hard card to play optimally but I advocate its inclusion because drawing 3 cards is a lot better than drawing 2 cards and you know what predict needs to be useful? A brainstorm or sensei's divining top which you will not always have in hand so you'll have to wait until you get one of those cards to be able to utilize predict to draw 2. Forcing a turn one threat then dropping standstill is a huge tempo gain or you can stifle their first fetch then drop standstill due to them not being able to play any spells without that one mana. Also of note if they drop nothing turn 1 then try to drop a two drop turn 2 and it gets spell snared then you can drop standstill this being an on the draw case of standstill being a bomb. And I like ancestral recall in legacy.
@keys:
Wait, did you literally just count the advantages vs. disadvantages? My point was not meant to be that each of the advantages were equally advantageous, and each of the dis-advantages were equally dis-advantageous. My point was not to pitch one card over the other, rather it was to have a concise list of advantages and disadvantages for each card followed by a description of why I choose standstill.
EDIT: since you were counting the advantages vs. disadvanteges in your (biased) post I will comment on them below:
Advantages:
1. Draws three cards instead of two
2. Refreshes the top three for SDT/Brainstorm
Disadvantages:
1. Requires a board that is in your favor or neutral (not necessarily, just a prospective board position, if standstill buys you the time to stabilize the board with manlands/wastelock/other in the future, it has done its job)
2. Weakness against decks with fast creatures (Zoo, Survival), Vial (Goblins, Merfolk, D&T), or more man-lands/Wastelands (Landstill) (true)
3. Pumps Goyf (assuming you're not playing Goyf) (how much does this actually matter vs. the card advantage difference)
4. Flash creatures can blow you out (I understand where you're getting that, but who plays flash creatures? and clique costs 1 more mana, it's pretty obvious when they're tempo thresh and they've left three mana open after you've done stuff like popped a fetch, basically if you get into this situation make sure you've got stp)
5. Sorcery speed (doesn't matter, at all, why would you consider not casting your draw? if you need more options during their turn, you'd still cast standstill)
6. Allows opponent to regain tempo lost from Stifle/Wasteland (umm actually I'd call this neutral because every turn of tempo that they're gaining, you also will be hitting your land drops and with wastelock down you pretty much make it an advantage) (not to mention it'll refill your hands which will be better for the dreadstill player)
Predict
Advantages:
1. Refreshes the top three
2. Instant speed (doesn't matter, it's draw therefore the only difference would be vs. discard) (if it were about filtering it would be different)
3. Can be used on your opponent to mill SDT, a card tutored with E Tutor/Sterling Grove, or Doomsday piles (honestly, didn't think of that, but how will they cast those cards if you've got a standstill up)
4. Can be cycled if conditions aren't met (this is a disadvantage, when it's cycled that means it is no longer better than... any cantrip... to this deck) (also, it can get countered, although idk why anyone would do that)
Disadvantages:
1. Requires a way to manipulate the top 3 (SDT, Jace, Brainstorm)
2. Draws 2 cards instead of 3
My responses in red:
Quote:
Originally Posted by bowvamp
A friend of mine was playing this deck, but very differently from the style we're going. He was playing it in a 3C Counterbalance list with Tarmogoyfs, Dark Confidants, and a bunch of other stuff. It wasn't as oriented on getting Dreadnought, it was playing more like a Counterbalance based deck, with the Dreadnought-Stifle combo in it. It played rather well against the majority of the field, as with most Counterbalance decks, and he said it was nice having other threats and answers rather than riding Dreadnought to victory (hopefully).
I'll try to get the list from him and post it, just to show another direction that he's gone.
-Matt
Feed us with this information! Arnold says naoUWW!Quote:
Originally Posted by sdematt
Goyf can be really good in a UGR version with Firespout, for the reasons you mentioned.Quote:
Originally Posted by sdematt
However, I don't agree with adding green to the deck if you're already playing black and/or white. It makes Perish worse and gives your opponent free Submerges, which is a problem against mono blue Merfolk and UG Madness when you're trying to protect Nought or Peacekeeper.
As someone who would play the Ur version with the occasional black splash strictly for Perish, and also someone who is not all that fond of the deck objectively/competitively (rather it nourishes the inner timmy in me)... I see this thread and it's bullshit. I wish people would stop talking about Predict vs. Standstill.
After some testing, I like both. I ran Predict as a supplement to Dark Confidant and makes the deck much more tempo-oriented and plays a "Draw, Go" fashion a lot while chipping away with Bob and answering everything the opponent plays. The Standstill version will always be classic but it's definitely a different deck style. I wish people would stop bickering and just playtest both versions rather than speculating.
This thread is getting NOWHERE. Both are valid options. As of now I prefer Predict because it's novel to me but tomorrow it's damn likely I'll throw my Standstills back in.
The Predict versus Standstill discussion needs to take place every few months. Don't get put off by it; it's just part of the evolution of the deck.
You're right that both are valid options. I think Predict is better with Confidant in a 3 color shell, whereas Standstill is strong in a UR(g) build with full sets of Mishra's/Wastelands.
Since i posted some pages ago without getting any notification i thought predict would be awful too, but had great results playing it in the UGR Goofy Dreadstill.
Predict is easier to play optimally and can still pitch to Force or get shuffled away with Brainstorm/Jace. This entire argument for the side of Standstill is based on the fact that "drawing 3 cards is better than drawing 2 cards". Without prejudice against all Standstill-lovers in any way, this is why I think it's a poor argument.Quote:
Originally Posted by Dark Ritual
1. In the context of Stifle-Nought, card advantage isn't necessarily as important as tempo gains or retarding the opponent's board development. Like many people have said before, dropping Standstill gives the opponent time to rebuild and forces you to spend mana during your main phase.
2. Unless they're REALLY in a pinch, they can just wait until you have atleast five and pop it EOT. In this case, it seems more like you casted Recall with 7 cards in hand and then passed the turn. Even if you had five cards, popping the Standstill then is about the same as Predict (draw 2 and throw away one).
3. Think about the situations that would warrant the optimal playing of Standstill. You would only drop Standstill when you have a better board position, or if you're holding onto man lands, or if you have top. Playing standstill also means that either you're assuming you will draw countermagic or you already have countermagic in hand (for, as an example, if they play Survival). In addition, your opponent can't have Vial, wasteland, manlands, library manipulation, or some other way of cheating things into play. On the other hand, optimal playing of Predict requires your having Jace, Brainstorm, or Top, or somehow knowing the top card of either player's libraries. I think it is quite obvious that the situations which consititute optimal play for Predict are more likely to occur than those which warrant the optimal playing of Standstill. Most important is the fact that Standstill REQUIRES a good board position to work in your favour while Predict can be played even if the optimal conditions aren't met.
4. This point has also been brought up previously. Standstill is sorcery speed and Predict is instant speed. The *only* argument for playing Standstill over Predict from this point of view is that Standstill draws 1 more card. But as I have already mentioned before, in a deck which values tempo over card advantage AND has can situationally handle Predict better than Standstill, this gain of one card can be considered negligible.
To all those out there playing Standstill over Predict, I don't mean to offend or to deride. This is a forum meant to develop this deck, and if you feel that playing Predict over Standstill makes the deck worse, then by all means don't play it. Those of us who are advocating playing Predict over Standstill obviously have our reasons for doing so (no one would knowingly play a card that makes the deck worse).
I just feel that if you look at Standstill vs Predict NOT in a vaccuum but in the context of Stifle-Nought, Predict seems to be a better card.
Standstill is not a hard card to play. If they have threats, don't play Standstill. If they don't have anything going on, play Standstill.Quote:
Originally Posted by The Atog Lord
How is that a challenging card to play?
He means the conditions for playing and triggering Standstill favorably are more challenging than the conditions for Predict, not that the decision making process is any more difficult.Quote:
Originally Posted by lorddotm
"I counted 2 advantages and 6 disadvantages for Standstill, versus 4 advantages and 2 disadvantages for Predict. See my list above." - keys
"I'm not assuming every advantage or disadvantage is weighted equally." - keys
Do you not understand that your logic doesn't work if they aren't weighted equally?
Prospective board position:
Turn 3:
You -> Standstill, Goyf, no cards in hand (Standstill was your last)
Opponent -> Goblin Lackey, Goblin Piledriver, Goblin Piledriver
It was the right play to put standstill on the board. Your current board position favors your opponents, but dropping Standstill, it will get progressively better because they will be walled out and you can develop your manabase. Currently the only way the opponent can save his board position (get it where he wants it to be is by playing spells, therefore making standstill non-situational)
I understand the difference between instant and sorcery speed draw. It's just that, well, the times you'd see the difference doesn't deserve a full two (not sure if they're equally weighted) points off of standstill using your metric. It would be a little like making the stifle/wasteland argument be "doesn't allow your opponent to gain tempo" as a pro for predict in addition to standstill.
"How is the option a disadvantage? If Standstill had "1U: discard *this*, mill the top card of your library, draw a card" it would certainly be better." - keys
It certainly would be better if this were the case, however, predict as I see it would make standstill read the following way:
1U
Standstill
Enchantment
Whenever a player plays a spell, that player flips two coins.
If both of them are heads, that player draws four cards.
Otherwise, that player draws one.
This is clearly the effect Predict + Standstill would have.
Predict is possibly one of the worst cantrips (yes, not actual draw) in the game for this deck. It's not like MUC where you run 23+ islands to begin with, in this deck you actually have to be even more situational to guarantee the number of cards you draw even goes so far as to net you an advantage.
I'd suggest that we run Mulldrifter before Predict because then, at least Spell Pierce doesn't hit it, and it doesn't require card filtering to be of use.
http://magiccards.info/query?q=skysc...v=card&s=cnameQuote:
Originally Posted by bowvamp
Are you serious? Posts like this are the reason why this debate is so tired and pointless. What kind of personal affront did Predict commit to you? Likewise to keys regarding standstill. Seriously people just use what works for you, it's resembling a religious or political debate up in here.
In an effort to steer the thread away from this stupidity: How many 'noughts are people running nowadays? I've been going with 3 but I'm thinking about going back up to 4 so the t2 12/12 threat option happens more often, especially with decks like Vengevival and Merfolk running around that can't deal with it easily. I have run as few as two with a Goyf-ed version of the deck, but then it didn't really feel like Dreadstill anymore.
Predict is like Standstill but for CB decks. If you can't get there with your lock, you can still try to blow them out with CA + efficient removal. Maybe it's not the right fit for dreadstill but in UWr CBtop, it's amazing.
Would you guys say in the current meta u/b/w dreadstill is a better choice then pro-bant?
I enjoying playing counterbalance and nopro has been good to me so far. I do like the fact tho that this deck can take out shakey mana bases with wasteland and stifle.
No, you keep assuming I mean things I don't. To assume makes an Ass out of U and Me. I can list things AND not have them be weighted. These aren't mutually exclusive concepts! I did not mean to imply that because I've listed more advantages for Predict that it is objectively the better card. I have many points to consider and I thought it was prudent to list them in an organized fashion.Quote:
Originally Posted by bowvamp
This is not an unfavorable position. It could be described as neutral.Quote:
Originally Posted by bowvamp
I don't have a "metric" so I don't have a clue what you're talking about. It's not a game where each card scores a certain number of points. These concepts are subjective.Quote:
Originally Posted by bowvamp
WTF? I don't want to flame you but this is completely nonsensical. Evoked Mulldrifter costs 1 more, is horrible with Confidant and Counterbalance, doesn't refresh the top three, and is not instant speed, so ...no.Quote:
Originally Posted by bowvamp
Sigh.
@sclabman: I don't have anything against Standstill! I just think Predict is better with Confidant in the Uwb shell. It's also a much more interesting debate topic than the optimal number of Noughts to run in the deck.
So this is the list i am running right now and since my meta is mostly merfolk, survival, goblins, and then some storm this is the list i am running.
Also to add to the predict to standstill i think its a meta call more then anything.
So here is the list:
--Lands--
2 Island
4 Flooded Strand
2 Polluted Delta
3 Tundra
3 Underground Sea
3 Wasteland
2 Mishra's Factory
1 Plains
1 Academy Ruins
-- Creatures--
2 Trinket Mage
3 Phyrexian Dreadnought
4 Dark Confidant
-- Spells --
4 Stifle
3 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
1 Trickbind
2 Engineered Explosives
4 Force of Will
2 Daze
4 Brainstorm
3 Counterbalance
2 Spell Snare
3 Predict
-- Sideboard--
1 Pithing Needle
1 Relic of Progenitus
3 Peacekeeper
3 Swords to Plowshares
2 Perish
2 Vindicate
3 Spell Pierce
I have also been looking at dropping the counterbalances from the list and going more counter type control or something else, thoughts?
Predict or Standstill can both generate pretty decent card advantage. I mean I can see why some would want to play Predict over Standstill since it's instant speed and requires less to generate off of. Standstill warps the game down to the game speed that this deck wants to play at times which is incredible slow. A resolved Standstill is going to make your oponent play alot more passively granting you extra turns to hit land drops and spin with Top in alot of situations. Predict while being instant speed cannot slow the game speed of a game down which is problematic when you need the game to slow down a bit.
But if you want to slow the game down a bit, that means you're having trouble with the speed of the game, right? Which means you're losing? Then why would you want to drop a Standstill?
Kicks: Why would the game being slowed down be bad for us? Part of the strength of Dreadstill is its ability to transition between quick combo deck, and grinding control deck. It is quite comfortable in both roles. One of the primary misconceptions about this deck that I have seen is that too many people are distracted by the Dreadnoughts. Yes, they are big and yes they can finish the game very quickly. But the rest of the deck is quite capable of functioning like a long-term control deck.
Now, for Predict vs Standstill. I don't think there is much left to say. My own recommendation is that Standstill is much stronger -- but that is a function of quite a bit of testing. You can make a logical argument for either card, and neither card is really wrong. There's no point in debating it much further; why not just sleeve up both cards one at a time and try them both?
I minorly disagree with Atog Lord. The deck usually lacks any kind of removal outside of EE, meaning a single resolved threat shifts the deck into stall-mode and we're looking to seek out the combo quickly. A control deck that's looking to grind out the game usually contains at the very least four StP and some number of sweepers.
There are a variety of reasons why Standstill is preferable to Predict.
For starters, Predict demands that we have Brainstorm or Top in place before we cast Predict. Standstill does not. In many ways Predict is more difficult to utilize effectively because if we don't have one of those set-up cards, or worse if our opponent interferes with the casting of one, then our Predict becomes exceptionally weak. This provides a compounding series of problems which I will outline below.
1) A turn 2 Predict is uncommon while a turn 2 Standstill is frequent. Even if we have Top, and successfully resolve it turn 1, we are not going to be casting Predict turn 2. Standstill is a play that is going to happen consistently earlier than Predict despite having the same mana cost.
2) Disruption of some sort can easily interfere with our combo. Suppose a black-based deck like the ones seen in recent SCG top 8's casts a Thoughtseize. They see Top and Predict. They were going to take Top anyway...
3) Brainstorm. When we want to cast Predict, we need to Brainstorm first. For any of us with decent Brainstorm etiquette, we know this is a terrible line of play. On the other hand, casting a Brainstorm after a Standstill is nearly unmatched in digging power. Compare these two simple scenarios:
BS -> Predict
See 3 cards
Net 1
Filter 1
Standstill -> BS
See 6 cards
Net 2
Filter 2
Brainstorm is a great card. But Playing it effectively is an art. When Predict forces us to Brainstorm at the wrong time, it is a crime and will severely hurt our ability to draw cards, dig for cards, fix our cards, and ultimately win games.
I agree with basically everything you're saying, Rico. Playing Brainstorm suboptimally in order to use Predict is bad; in that scenario I would probably just hold my Predict. You're also right that Predict + library manipulation often costs a total of 3 mana unless you have Jace out, so a turn 2 Predict (barring an E Tutor from your opponent) is rarely possible.
I think the root of our disagreement may be the fact that Predict and Standstill do not fill exactly the same role, even though they are both draw spells that cost 1U. Pigeonholing Predict into the role that Standstill used to play is not going to convince anyone of its power.
Like you said, it is often the best play to cast Standstill on turn 2, whereas Predict shines in the late game when board positions have already developed (i.e your opponent has creatures and you have a Top) and you need that extra card advantage to take control of the game.
If we're talking specifically about a replacement for Standstill, I think everyone should have their eyes on Dark Confidant. Like Standstill, running out Confidant on turn 2 is often the correct play, and both cards provide a huge early advantage.
In the current Uwb Dreadstill list I play, I am using 4 Confidants for the early advantage, and 2 Predict for the late game boost, and it is very fluid.
Would you like to post this list of yours?Quote:
Originally Posted by keys
I am currently having some thoughts whether or not its worth running 4 dreadnoughts, i.e cutting some and replacing with other creatures. I know how incredulous this must sound to some but with the current meta that is basically SPRAWLING with creature and above all, artifact and enchantment hate as a consequence of the abundance of survival decks, I just find myself boarding out the noughts regardless of what match up. Hence, I alter my deck completely with peacekeeper instead of noughts, turning it into some jacestill/CBtop hybrid... lol
This, not to mention setting up Standstill is easier with the deck's strong early permission suite + factory. If you really wanted to Predict with Top/Brainstorm, it boils down to a total of {3U}/{1UU} mana spent respectively, which only nets 1 cards (sometimes 'scrying' is suboptimal). Now imagine the same situation Standstill + either Top/Brainstorm, you will net 2 cards and dig another 3 cards, for a total of {3U}/{1UU} respectively. Not to mention Standstill allows the Dreadstill player to develop his manabase IF opponents refused to crack it early. Now, imagine both situations WITHOUT secondary cards.Quote:
Originally Posted by Rico Suave
As far as I'm concerned, Predict's instant speed + not pumping opposing goyfs +1/+1 does not outweigh the raw card advantage and super-digging synergy with Top/Brainstorm that Standstill provides. What if you HAD to counter a spell and had no mana to predict? Then you wasted both tempo and resource management. When I play Standstill, I KNOW That the situation si going to benefit me regardless if they cracked it immediately or not, i.e. I have full knowledge that my tapped-out resource management is still beneficial when I made the decision to play Standstill. And if they don't crack it, I will have mana open to win any permission war with the raw cards I draw from Standstill. At least, I want MORE cards, to either control the game, or protect my Dreadnought. Standstill + Top/Brainstorm to me already seems stronger than Predict + Top/Brainstorm, and Standstill has another added synergy with Factories, so the nature of Standstill fits better in the deck than Predict. And I've tested Predict due to displeasure with Standstill, I thought it was strong until I realized that I was convincing myself it was better than standstill due to my bad experiences with Standstill. The mind games you can play with yourself heh.
I posted it a few pages back, but I'll copy it again. [PMP]Krevvy shared a list that was very similar as well.Quote:
Originally Posted by Jackehehe
4 Dark Confidant
3 Phyrexian Dreadnought
2 Trinket Mage
4 Force of Will
4 Brainstorm
3 Spell Snare
2 Daze
2 Predict
4 Stifle
1 Trickbind
2 Jace, the Mind Sculptor
3 Counterbalance
3 Sensei's Divining Top
2 Engineered Explosives
4 Wasteland
1 Academy Ruins
4 Flooded Strand
3 Polluted Delta
3 Underground Sea
2 Tundra
3 Island
1 Plains
Sideboard:
3 Peacekeeper
2 Perish
3 Swords to Plowshares
3 Spell Pierce
1 Vindicate
1 Pithing Needle
1 Tormod's Crypt
1 Relic of Progenitus
The 3 Nought, 2 Mage, 4 Stifle, 1 Trickbind combo works very well, and Confidants fill your hand with them fast. Bobby also acts as a lightning rod, sucking up removal that would otherwise target your Nought. Of course if I have a counter I will definitely protect Confidant, because a few turns of his upkeep will put you ahead very fast.
Sometimes your opponent will answer all your threats, leaving you with just a Top and a stale board, and then Predict really speeds up the topdeck. I'm playing 3 Spell Snare/2 Daze because of the popularity of Survival (although I played the same formation back in the days of UGR Dreadstill and it was just as good then). I'm considering some Counterspells, but I haven't tried them out yet.
I'm currently running 4 Wasteland to capitalize on the mana denial option with Stifles, and it's really good to have against opposing Mishra's/Mutavaults as well as Maze of Ith. Academy Ruins is there for the EE lock which is the deck's only maindeck removal, but it can also dig up a Nought if you need it, and recurring Crypt is game over for Dredge.
I secon Rich, this discussion is unecessary: Standstill is proven and powerful, the correct metagame response has already been taken by going down to 3 Still and adding other ways to gain card advantage. Just (extensively) test Predict and tell us your results.
Two notes which hasnt been mentioned till now:
- Predict is basically a two card combo with SDT to gain a little card advantage. Blind Predicts are bad as they are with BS (see Metalwalkers) post. Personallyi would hate to use BS in combination with Predict as i either want to shuffle bad cards away or configure my top cards for CB. I would consider Predict a strong option in decks starting with 4 SDT and at least a couple of Ponders, but not in Dreadstill.
- They are some matchups were Standstill is above average powerful, far better than Bob in some cases. Black aggro control or board control with comes to my mind, basically decks with lots of removal, but not that many threats of none-blue nature.
Also I value Standstill quite high against Countertop, especially against recent lists which sometimes just play Goyf and Clique as beaters. As a sidenote a few pages back someone mentioned that he thinks that the best strategy against Zoo is to try to chain Standstills... given this was a different version of the deck, but it should state the value of the card imo.
Well, I went down to 3 Standstill about a year ago when Zoo became the DTB. Now that Zoo has been supplanted by Vengevine Survival, and partially due to the printing of Spell Pierce and Coralhelm, Merfolk has become a huge force. It's a new metagame now that is not friendly to Standstill.Quote:
Originally Posted by deadlock
3 SDT, 2 Trinket Mage (to get SDT), 4 Brainstorm, 2 Jace. That's 11 methods to set up Predict, and that doesn't count the ways in which your opponent can reveal his top card. It is much more than a two card combo; it flows very naturally with the game plan.Quote:
- Predict is basically a two card combo with SDT to gain a little card advantage. Blind Predicts are bad as they are with BS (see Metalwalkers) post. Personallyi would hate to use BS in combination with Predict as i either want to shuffle bad cards away or configure my top cards for CB. I would consider Predict a strong option in decks starting with 4 SDT and at least a couple of Ponders, but not in Dreadstill.
Is mono black control that popular in your meta? I see a healthy number of Landstill decks in my meta, and Standstill is pretty poor in that matchup, considering that they play more man lands, Wastelands, and potentially DoJ. Besides, Bob is insane versus most things black because Snuff Out and Ghastly Demise can't touch him.Quote:
- They are some matchups were Standstill is above average powerful, far better than Bob in some cases. Black aggro control or board control with comes to my mind, basically decks with lots of removal, but not that many threats of none-blue nature.
Also I value Standstill quite high against Countertop, especially against recent lists which sometimes just play Goyf and Clique as beaters. As a sidenote a few pages back someone mentioned that he thinks that the best strategy against Zoo is to try to chain Standstills... given this was a different version of the deck, but it should state the value of the card imo.
Predict also has its uses against CounterTop, such as milling a flipped Top. Funny you mention Clique, because he has a way of turning a Standstill into a 4-for-0 in your opponent's favor. I remember when it was mentioned, but I still find it hard to believe that "chaining Standstills" is even a legitimate strategy.
Anyway, it does seem like time to move on, since I'm seeing many of the same arguments rehashed. I'll let you know how things go at the next tournament I attend.
I've found that this is the best way to defeat Zoo with Dreadstill. You can often land a Standstill in the first few turns, in a position that Zoo can't break through. Using either Top or drawing into a Factory, you will force Zoo to break that Standstill. Then you can establish a Dreadnought with counter backup, a Counterbalance, or another Standstill to continue. In any case, you're quite often in a favorable position. I'm not saying that Zoo is a great matchup, but Counterbalance does help a lot.Quote:
Well, I went down to 3 Standstill about a year ago when Zoo became the DTB...I still find it hard to believe that "chaining Standstills" is even a legitimate strategy.
On the matter of Merfolk. Sure, Standstill is bad here. But so is Predict. You'll either resolve a quite Dreadnought and win, or you'll lose. You don't have time Game I to set up a worthwhile Predict. And game II, you'd board out Standstill or Predict anyway.
And do you really want to count Jace for setting up Predict? Making your tiny draw spell better when you've already landed Jace and are not needing to bounce something right away is very much win-more.
Can you explain what you mean by this? Even when you're on the play, how do you expect to consistently land a Standstill early against a deck that plays at least 10 1-drops?Quote:
Originally Posted by The Atog Lord
I agree that Counterbalance is key.
You counter zoo's second turn threat or if it's a nacatl you can go turn 1 island per se turn 2 they try to drop goyf you snare it then that's followed up by standstill on turn 2 with you at 17 life they have a 3/3 nacatl presumably and you have an island and factory. This is where standstill shines; you trade your factory for their nacatl then you wait until they either break the standstill or you draw into another factory to put pressure on them to break the standstill. The above scenario will happen often because spell snare can be any non daze counterspell like FoW works to counter the goyf. The only problem with this scenario is if the opponent drops a steppe lynx turn 1 then it will eat your factory alive but that's the only one drop that gives us problems loam lion, nactal, and kird ape have nothing on a 3/3 factory. If they bolt the factory that's fine because they just broke standstill and you can likely protect the factory with the cards you drew.
Or they just wait until you have a full hand and bolt you in your end step? Honestly, I think Standstill's greatest strength is that people still do not how to properly play against it.
At least my personal experience with Predict was even with its synergy with Brainstorm/Top, if I don't have Top, Predict just simply isn't worth playing. Playing a Brainstorm following up with a Top results in 2 cards being used simply to net 1 card (you can value the benefit of scrying a irrelevant card' but most tight lists seldom have irrelevant cards, you have fetches for 'scrying' purposes with Brainstorm/Top).
The Predicts without Top are very weak, even with conjunction with Brainstorm, because in setting this up, it's 1UU net 1 card. Standstill when being cast, will always net you 2 cards, and if not cracked immediately, will net you 2 cards with mana open for responses aka, huge tempo loss for opponents when you have mana open to counter their spells when they crack Standstills. When you resolve a standstill and they crack immediately, you net 2 cards for 1U, still seems good for me.
The ONLY argument that Predict has over Standstill is: Standstill is sometimes a dead card, but Predict never is. This I fully agree. But in arguing which is more powerful in drawing in GENERAL and over the course of the game, there is really nothing else in the format that outdraws Standstill (Bob doesn't count since it's just as situational if not more protecting Bob). Bob doesn't take the slots of Standstill, so there's no point in discussion Bob v.s. Standstill. For the people who are still convinced Predict > Standstill, I can personally say that this is true in a Merfolk/Goblin dominant meta, otherwise Standstill is simply better against any other deck without exception. I can always confidently drop a Standstill against Zoo and know that I'll take at most 10 damage before I draw my 3 cards. Assuming the WORST scenario where I never drew my manlands against Zoo's Wild Nacatl, then Standstill has still bought me the 4-6 turns to sculpt my hand, where I'll EOT crack my STandstill, drop my Counterbalance engine, and deal with the board to which they will be in a bad position unless they have Grip. Standstill is all about building up to a good position, it's not about resolving it in a favorable position, but it also serves as BOTH a card draw and the establisher of a good board position given the scenarios your opponent has to react to it.
I currently play 3 in Landstill (don't really play Dreadstill although I've piloted it before and probably will pick it up once in awhile in my meta now that it's shifting towards heavy combo, the stifles and counterbalance >>> LAndstill against combo).
On the topic of Merfolk, it bears repeating a few key points that have been previously mentioned.
Standstill isn't too hot here, but neither is Predict. It is correct to board out Standstill in this match, but we came to the conclusion that boarding out Predict is also correct. So I find it difficult to believe that Merfolk is a reason to play Predict over Standstill.
Furthermore, what strategies are successful against Merfolk? Well, there seem to be 2 lines of attack Dreadstill can execute which have an advantage over what Merfolk is doing:
-Present a 12/12 early and outrace the opponent
-Secure a Peacekeeper and protect it
For the purpose of playing an early 12/12, it is imperative to play 4 Dreadnoughts. In fact, I would wager that somewhere around 95%+ of Dreadstill's game 1 wins against Merfolk revolve around this line of play.
Rico I understand what you mean, and I think I didn't phrase/argue correctly but what I'm saying that Standstills ain't hot against Merfolks, which we all know, so an alternative e.g. Predict maybe considered running over it, and since the meta has quite a number of Merfolk decks, it should replace Standstill.
But I am fully agreeing with you here,the Standstillsthe Standstill SLOTS should be boarded out because you cannot afford to board out anything else against Merfolks. You need to keep your permission, sweepers, Dreadnought unchanged while bringing in the hate cards.
EDIT: So Predict would be bad too since it is technically a Standstill SLOT, and these slots need to be boarded out for answers while the other MD (Permissions/Noughts) cannot be touched since they are relevant to winning the game against Merfolks.
And Brad and I are both saying that while Standstill is not good against Merfolk, Predict is also bad. If you're spending your first three turns setting up and using Predict, you're probably losing anyway.
This is the list my friend was using the other night, and placed second, only losing to Goblins:
This is taken straight out of the email he sent, and I don't feel like editing for capitals and grammatical errors:
*Quote*
x3 Nought
x4 Stifle
x2 Trickbind
x4 FoW
x4 Daze
x4 Brainstorm
x2 EE
x3 Counterbalance
x3 S. top
x4 Dark confidant
x4 Tarmogoyf
x2 Trinket mage
x3 U sea
x3 Trop
x2 island
x1 forest
x3 wasteland
x3 mishras factory
x4 misty rainforest
x2 polluted delta
i would like to put a 2-3 spell snares back in but cant find room, and i would also like to put in a 4th wasteland because right now i'm playing this as a tempo deck with goyf/confidant that has an oops smash with the nought. i try to stifle all fetches, waste non basics and then daze/fow important stuff.
SB still in the works
x2 BeB
x2 trygon predator
x3 krosan grip
x3 smother
x1 pithing needle
x3 tormods crypt
x1 ??
*End quote*
He did really well with the deck, and it looks like it was a blast to play. Critique it at your leisure.
-Matt
Looks similar to the deck which placed 4th at GP: Bochum's sideevent.
-1 Nought, -4 Snare, -2 Jace 2.0 => 3 CB, + 3 Top, +1 land all the while adding Factories.
As I am considering trying UBG Thresh at the moment, I am a bit attracted to both of the lists. UGB Tempo contains targeted removal, though, and Spell Snare is too important and strong to pass in my opinion.
I am also not sure about those Factories - are they needed? I am currently playing NLT and am growing to dislike them - not doing much, providing colorless mana for a colorhungry deck and merely synergising at all with the rest of the deck. Cutting the Factories and adding a 4th Wasteland and 1 or 2 fetchlands might be better without Standstill or CoW. On the other hand, thex provide cheap blockers and are nearly immune to opposing planeswalkers.