All B/R update speculation.

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09-02-2015, 05:03 PM
phonics

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Megadeus

People saying unban balance. And I wonder why this thread isn't taken seriously

People too embroiled in the 200 page brainstorm ban and discussion thread to recognize explicitly stated sarcasm I suppose.
09-02-2015, 05:04 PM
Barook

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by iatee

Though:
- brainstorm makes blue decks more consistent than anything else
-> brainstorm gone almost certainly means the blue deck % decreases by some amount greater than 0
-> fewer blue decks means fewer Force of Wills floating around.

Brainstorm doesn't have to be 'good vs belcher' to be good vs belcher.

Brainstorm ban =|= FoW ban

Belcher wasn't a problem when blue decks were at 52% in 2011.

How much would the blue deck percentage in the meta have to decrease for glasscannon combo to actually become a problem? I doubt the blue penetration would dip even close into the 50% range without Brainstorm.
09-02-2015, 05:08 PM
Megadeus

Re: All B/R update speculation.

What Barook said essentially
09-02-2015, 05:12 PM
Admiral_Arzar

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barook

Brainstorm ban =|= FoW ban

Belcher wasn't a problem when blue decks were at 52% in 2011.

How much would the blue deck percentage in the meta have to decrease for glasscannon combo to actually become a problem? I doubt the blue penetration would dip even close into the 50% range without Brainstorm.

People making the hysterical, sky-is-falling, "glass cannon combo" argument have a terrible understanding of history. I used to play SI all the time in 2010-2011, and the deck was held in check by its own instability just as much as by blue decks (and the prevalence of discard). People forget that very little has been printed to make glass cannon decks better in the last few years, while other strategies in Legacy have continually increased in power level. The lack of Brainstorm wouldn't change any of those dynamics.
09-02-2015, 05:12 PM
iatee

Re: All B/R update speculation.

I agree, blue is still the most powerful color in legacy even post-brainstorm ban. And regardless of blue, glass cannon decks are just a general nuisance, not something worth planning the format around - that was more my point. If they became too much of one, that's not an impossible problem to solve.
09-02-2015, 05:25 PM
nedleeds

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quasim0ff

Yes, Black Lotus is everywhere. This does have the function, that the format is actually broader than without Black Lotus, as it's playable in everything [wanting that effect]. No other card has that quality.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quasim0ff

Yes, Ancestral Recall is everywhere. This does have the function, that the format is actually broader than without Ancestral Recall, as it's playable in everything [wanting that effect]. No other card has that quality.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quasim0ff

Yes, Time Walk is everywhere. This does have the function, that the format is actually broader than without Time Walk, as it's playable in everything [wanting that effect]. No other card has that quality.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Quasim0ff

Yes, Demonic Tutor is everywhere. This does have the function, that the format is actually broader than without Demonic Tutor, as it's playable in everything [wanting that effect]. No other card has that quality.

Just so you know how retarded your "argument" is.
09-02-2015, 05:28 PM
nedleeds

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barook

Brainstorm ban =|= FoW ban

Belcher wasn't a problem when blue decks were at 52% in 2011.

How much would the blue deck percentage in the meta have to decrease for glasscannon combo to actually become a problem? I doubt the blue penetration would dip even close into the 50% range without Brainstorm.

Everything you said plus the combo hate cards that have been printed since ~2010 have gone through the roof. Trap, Leyline, Flusterstorm.
09-02-2015, 05:36 PM
Crimhead

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HrishiQQ

Secondly, Wheel and Twister have real costs attached to them where they draw your opponent into a fresh 7, meaning they draw into more permission for you to fight through (that permission that you just recently discarded away with your Duresses).

I'm well familiar with this, having played a fair bit of High Tide in the past. I wouldn't cast Time Spiral if I could win without it, but I wouldn't hesitate to cast it if I did need it. And it rarely ever lost after resolving one.

Quote:

Originally Posted by HrishiQQ

Yes, obviously Dig through Time has a delve cost. It's not hard to delve away fetches, random Duresses and other crap and leave your business spells in your yard for you to reuse with a PiF or Yawg Will.

Legacy - not Vintage. You'll note that DTT actually doesn't see play in Legacy Storm.

It can be very hard to cast DTT on turn two, or to cast more than one on a single (early) turn. But this is exactly what Storm decks will want to do if they could get their hands on Wheel.

If you honestly are saying Wheel Of Fortune could be unbanned and not give a massive boost to Storm, I'll trade a LED for whatever it is you're smoking..

Quote:

Originally Posted by Admiral_Arzar

Probably because you've been bullshitting about Vintage cards for the last page or so.

Eh? I've been talking about cards which are banned in Legacy. How those cards fare in EDH, Vintage, or Rainbow Stairwell is of little consequence.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nedleeds

The miracle mechanic is busted because of the broken overpowered ubiquitous card Brainstorm. The end. You have to be a rhesus monkey to think adjusting the cost to WW is a real discussion or a solution.

Seems to me Miracles is not dominant and is quite beatable by other tier decks. On what evidence is the miracle mechanic broken?
09-02-2015, 05:49 PM
jimmythegreek

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by nedleeds

Everything you said plus the combo hate cards that have been printed since ~2010 have gone through the roof. Trap, Leyline, Flusterstorm.

Absolutely. It seems every set now has a graveyard hoser at the price of a whopping one or two mana. The grave-hate comes in all forms (creature, artifact or enchantment). As oppressive as these decks can be wheres the new hate for decks that draw like a million cards a game.
09-02-2015, 10:58 PM
Nielsie

Re: All B/R update speculation.

I don't know about you guys, but this is kind of getting ridiculous (data fetched from TCDecks):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7d...ew?usp=sharing
09-02-2015, 11:34 PM
nedleeds

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nielsie

I don't know about you guys, but this is kind of getting ridiculous (data fetched from TCDecks):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7d...ew?usp=sharing

Thank you. When you visualize it, it's even more idiotic that the card is still legal. Also shows how absurd putting DTT ahead of it in line is.
09-03-2015, 12:05 AM
Barook

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nielsie

I don't know about you guys, but this is kind of getting ridiculous (data fetched from TCDecks):

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7d...ew?usp=sharing

Your graph lacks a Y-axis.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I only trust TCDeck data during the month, because after the month is over, it seems that the "most played card" section isn't updated properly anymore, while still adding decks to the Top 8 section, resulting in a way lower meta penetration than reality for all cards.

It makes no fucking sense that Brainstorm hovers around 80% usage during every month (where both sections are updated properly) while dropping lower after the month is over. Brainstorm was ~79% meta penetration at the end of July, now with the added tournament results added to July until mid-August, it suddenly dropped to 66.2% - just what? :eyebrow: Which is especially suspicious that we're at 80% Brainstorm usage again for August at the end of the month - I expect a massive drop in Brainstorm % until mid-September.

We're currently at 229 decks/744 BS at the time I write this post - let's see how those numbers change when we have mid-September.

Edit: I'll also track the events that are currently reported compared to those which get added later. Hopefully this reveals the cause of the repeated discrepancies every month.
09-03-2015, 12:12 AM
nedleeds

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barook

Your graph lacks a Y-axis.

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I only trust TCDeck data during the month, because after the month is over, it seems that the "most played card" section isn't updated properly anymore, while still adding decks to the Top 8 section, resulting in a way lower meta penetration than reality for all cards.

It makes no fucking sense that Brainstorm hovers around 80% usage during every month (where both sections are updated properly) while dropping lower after the month is over. Brainstorm was ~79% meta penetration at the end of July, now with the added tournament results added to July until mid-August, it suddenly dropped to 66.2% - just what? :eyebrow: Which is especially suspicious that we're at 80% Brainstorm usage again for August at the end of the month - I expect a massive drop in Brainstorm % until mid-September.

We're currently at 229 decks/744 BS at the time I write this post - let's see how those numbers change when we have mid-September.

13 of 16 at the latest SCG ... Survival couldn't even beat that

http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=17954

SCG Charlotte before that was ... drum roll 13 of 16 ... yay mental misstep level uniformity

http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=17907

Champs was 22 of 32

http://www.tcdecks.net/deck.php?id=17901

also telling I don't even have to look at lists anymore ... I already know at least 12 cards in all of them. What a pathetic format.
09-03-2015, 12:40 AM
Nielsie

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barook

Your graph lacks a Y-axis.

Oh shoot, in my haste I cropped too much. It's 5am in the morning for me and need some sleep... I fixed the image

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7d...ew?usp=sharing

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barook

I've said it before and I'll say it again: I only trust TCDeck data during the month, because after the month is over, it seems that the "most played card" section isn't updated properly anymore, while still adding decks to the Top 8 section, resulting in a way lower meta penetration than reality for all cards.

That's not true, or at least not true the way my data is generated. I fetch all the most played cards for each month and than I fetch how many decks they have for each month. This way I can generate my percentages. In my last Excel 06/2015 had BS at 69.73% my current data reports 69.52%. All the other months are pretty much the same too like 05/2015 had 76.15% to current 76,15%
09-03-2015, 01:11 AM
Barook

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nielsie

Oh shoot, in my haste I cropped too much. It's 5am in the morning for me and need some sleep... I fixed the image

https://drive.google.com/file/d/0B7d...ew?usp=sharing

That's not true, or at least not true the way my data is generated. I fetch all the most played cards for each month and than I fetch how many decks they have for each month. This way I can generate my percentages. In my last Excel 06/2015 had BS at 69.73% my current data reports 69.52%. All the other months are pretty much the same too like 05/2015 had 76.15% to current 76,15%

While the effort to visualize the data is nice, it doesn't really show meta penetration, but "dominance", as MTGGoldfish calls it. The graph is only accurate for Brainstorm since everybody runs 4 copies, which isn't necessarily true for other cards, especially DTT.

Paper numbers in use are most likely extremely close to Online numbers, so use these to get the actual meta penetration for Paper:

- Wasteland: Going to leave this one out due to the scarcity factor online
- Brainstorm stays the same: 81.2%
- Ponder goes from 63.9% to 69.0%
- FoW goes from to 77.2% to 83.4% (I guess Merfolk is the main culprit here for the higher number than Brainstorm? :really: )
- DTT goes from 34.9% to 55.9%

Obviously there's some room for error, but the graph drastically underplays the role of DTT in the meta. The adjustments get the number also much closer to the number of the Online meta.
09-03-2015, 01:25 AM
jrsthethird

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Let's make an agreement to splash blue in EVERY deck for Brainstorm for the next GP. Then Wizards will notice.

Brainstorm Goblins, Brainstorm Belcher, Brainstorm Death and Taxes, Brainstorm MUD, Brainstorm Merfolk, Brainstorm Dragon Stompy! The splashing possibilities are endless!
09-03-2015, 01:28 AM
Barook

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrsthethird

Brainstorm Merfolk

I always wondered why Merfolk didn't run a bunch of fetches and Brainstorm. Seemed like a no-brainer before MD CotV became a thing.
09-03-2015, 01:43 AM
Stevestamopz

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by jrsthethird

Let's make an agreement to splash blue in EVERY deck for Brainstorm for the next GP. Then Wizards will notice.

Brainstorm Goblins, Brainstorm Belcher, Brainstorm Death and Taxes, Brainstorm MUD, Brainstorm Merfolk, Brainstorm Dragon Stompy! The splashing possibilities are endless!

Quote:

Originally Posted by GoboLord

I am thinking about integrating a playset of Brainstorm into the deck. Here is what I think it can do for the deck:

1. Make you use you mana more efficiently. You can use it proactively to dig for cards that you can play/cards that match the manacost of your Aether Vials charge counters. Curving out is extremely important for an aggro deck, and Brainstorm helps to e.g. exchange multiple copies of Warchief for a Piledriver, Warchief and Ringleader.
2. Send back conditionally weak cards. Every goblin deck has some sort of (mini-)toolbox. So, why not send that Tuktuk Scrapper back against BUG Delver in exhange for something more relevant? Why not turn your 2nd or 3rd Aether Vial into a creature?
3. Brainstorm helps to switch between the two roles the deck can take during a game (aggressive/combo vs. Grindy controlish)
4. Live the Dream of Drawing 7 cards out of Brainstorm + Ringleader. E.g. draw 2 lands and a goblin out of BS, put 2 Goblins back on top, then bring ringleader and draw 4 goblins.

I know that we can beat any deck as long as we put our potential into action. In order to do so, I think we need ti stream line the deck, to make it work more consistently. Whatever your deck does , it has to do so on a regular and solid basis.

From the Goblins thread. Presented without comment.
09-03-2015, 02:00 AM
Barook

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Stevestamopz

From the Goblins thread. Presented without comment.

Brainstorm has a ridiculously low opportunity cost compared to its power. More news at 11.

If the blue splash had more to offer than just Brainstorm and a bunch of mediocre cards blue card that don't really solve its problems, D&T would probably run it as well. For now, the red splash is probably stronger.

And jrsthethird's list misses Brainstorm Elves - gotta put those NO targets back into the library.
09-03-2015, 04:18 AM
jrsthethird

Re: All B/R update speculation.

Quote:

Originally Posted by Barook

Brainstorm has a ridiculously low opportunity cost compared to its power. More news at 11.

If the blue splash had more to offer than just Brainstorm and a bunch of mediocre cards blue card that don't really solve its problems, D&T would probably run it as well. For now, the red splash is probably stronger.

And jrsthethird's list misses Brainstorm Elves - gotta put those NO targets back into the library.

But Brainstorm makes finding those red cards so much easier!

A more complete list:

Brainstorm Nic Fit
Brainstorm Deadguy Ale
Brainstorm Junk
Brainstorm Jund
Brainstorm Spanish Inquisition
Brainstorm Lands
Brainstorm Dredge
Brainstorm Enchantress
Brainstorm Sylvan Plug
Brainstorm Oops All Spells
Brainstorm Maverick
Brainstorm Pox
Brainstorm Manaless Dredge
Brainstorm Rock
Brainstorm Cure
Brainstorm Quinn
Brainstorm Parfait
Brainstorm Gate
Brainstorm Eggs
Brainstorm Zoo
Brainstorm Stax
Brainstorm Burn
Brainstorm Eva Green
Brainstorm Daretti
Brainstorm Zombardment
Brainstorm Angel Stompy