Originally Posted by
Hot Soup
Goblins is never planning to cast it's 5 drop. It's there because of Lackey. If the game goes long, maybe it will cast it, but it's not the cards purpose. Goblins is too busy throwing down small dudes and porting and wasting your land to think about paying 5 mana for one card, even if it does have that much value. Theres a reason that everyone is proclaiming Goblins dead with Mental Misstep, and it's because Goblin Lackey or Aether Vial turn 1 was cluth for this deck. You seem to be forgetting just how dependant these decks are upon Vial. I bet you folk hardcast Sower maybe 1/5 of the time, the rest they just tick up a vial to 4 later in the game, steal your creature and win. Commander does not need to have a bunch of mana dumped into it in one go, you can do it here and there, and he doesn't take much at all to hit his next level. Mutavault requires 1 to use. Merfolk live comfortably on 2-3 mana.
Of course these decks play out different if they don't drop a Vial turn one, that's to be expected. The deck is completely different when it does not. Theres a reason these decks are so dependant upon it. If Mr.Merfolk player doesn't hit Vial turn 1, you think he's going to agreesivly cast Daze and use wastelands? No, of course not. But if he has a Vial out, ticking away, he can wasteland all he wants, lose mutavault to your wastelands and daze away, and feel comfortable.