[DTB] U/G/x Thresh - a.k.a. Not Quite Gro, SuperGro

As Getsickanddie mentioned, and as I said before (although I don't think anyone noticed), Magma Jet is savage with Predict. UGr Gro lists should not cut good cards (Predict) to run bad cards (Mental Note). Magma Jet is better removal than Fire/Ice because it is so incredibly awesome to set up every single Predict, so that UGr Gro outdraws its white counterpart (assuming no-one is running AK).

Also, Mental Note is a bad card for many reasons, but the one I would like to point out is the milling bit. Unlike many decks, decks based on the principle of running fewer "meaty" cards and running more cantrips in order to play as if they ran more "meaty cards" cannot afford to lose cards randomly, because in many cases you only run 2-3 copies of a card you need and want to cast during any given game. Normally, it would be okay to lose random cards, but in a deck designed to run fewer threats and answers and instead draw into them, you cannot afford the likely possibility of milling away a threat or counterspell that you didn't choose to lose (Because Predict just gets rid of a card that you decided you didn't need [because you wouldn't predict it away if you needed it]). Also, blind predicts happen maybe 5-10% of the time in UGr Gro (due to Magma Jet's awesomeness), and so you rarely blindly mill cards away like the shitty mental note does. That is why Mental Note is bad.

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Originally Posted by Brushwagg

I have question on the UGB list posted on page one. I like it better then the other 2 (since I have all the cards -1 Underground). I got to thinking wouldn't Lim-Dul's Vault fit nicely into it? I replaced the A.K. with Predict, just beacuse without Intuition AK sucks. Also what other removale could be used instead of the Demise? I like that it cost 1 mana but it's just seems kinda meh. But I haven' t done testing yet so I can say for sure.

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Well im glad to see other people playing my varient. I just wish more people would give it a shoot before decideing to play another varient.
@Lim-Dul's Vault: The thing about Vault is that it doesnt offer card paridy or card advantage making it a subpar md card choice compared to somthing that actually cantrips. If your looking for more library stacking effects to set up Predict look into Portent.
@other removal: theres an abundace of removal that black has to offer the deck. In my original I was running Echoing Decay which was fucking hot against goblins and decree tokens. But not so much against big fatties so it had to go. Other opitions are
Vendetta(this doesnt seem to stellar because of the life loss)
Diabloic Edict(not to hot against goblins)
Putrefy(I like the idea of this but the cost is a big deturrrent)
The biggest reason for my choice of removal is the goblins match up, the deck just needed more answer to the 1st turn lackey. But the removal is heavly depened on the meta game.

There's that whole ''first turn Lackey" problem coming up again. In my UGb, I have been playing Diabolic Edict in the Ghastly demise slot. Basically, I cant count on Ghastly Demise to work for the turn one lackey every time. Even if I happen to have it in my opening hand, I have to also have a fetch to pop to put a card in the grave and get U-sea. So I just prefer Edict. Yes, I allow for the chance of a shitty game one, but, when 4 E-Plagues enter for games 2 and 3, the match is almost gauranteed to be mine. I have actually considered maindecking 2 E-Plague. Thoughts?

@Overlord: The reason I was asking is because the Syracuse Meta is all messed up. There is always at least 2-3 mono-Black decks there, and Goblins aren't there every week. So I'm try out Diabolic Edict and Vendetta and let you know.

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Originally Posted by Brushwagg

@Overlord: The reason I was asking is because the Syracuse Meta is all messed up. There is always at least 2-3 mono-Black decks there, and Goblins aren't there every week. So I'm try out Diabolic Edict and Vendetta and let you know.

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Just so you know vendetta says non-black. Also I agree with dsg123456789 I've been running predict and jet, although I did not cut fire/ice. my removal is
4 lightning bolt
4 fire/ice
3 magma jet

I've found that almost any aggro deck can't handle that, and if they arn't running aggro...TAKE IT TO THE DOME!

Just as a reference point for people who are interested in the basics of the deck, there is an *ok* article on Londes.com today about Thresh. Here's the link: Londes Threshold Article

He's a little off on numbers, and his card choices are a bit iffy, but he at least has a grasp of the way the deck should work. It's a great starting point for people with no experience with the deck. I'm pretty sure I'll be posting in the boards to clarify a few things, feel free to as well.


Notes on the deck: What, other than it being 2 mana and sometimes weak, are the disadvantages of AK in your opinions? I have been running it since day 1, over other cantrippers such as Sleight, because I find that lategame, aside from Predict, the deck has no way to gain actual card advantage. In those situations, I would almost always rather just draw 3 than look at the top 2 and pick 1. Am I missing something?

What you're missing is that Gro loses more games because it can't generate card quality advantage quickly enough in the early game than it loses because it can't gain pure card advantage in the lategame.

Really, by the time AK comes online (meaning you've drawn 3 or 4 of them), the game will often have been decided already, one way or the other.

The late-game in the absolute should ideally not be reached with your general gro draw. The relative late-game is ideally a few turns before your average late-game control deck has stabilized. OF is right-- by the time you get to the point of AK mattering, the game is over. Very rarely will AK dig you out of a situation that you would otherwise lose in, and often enough AK will make your deck slower where you would otherwise win.

Like I said on some other boards, AK is more explosive and less consistant, Predict is less explosive and more consistant. If you want to randomly win games you shouldn't go for AK, if you want to win because of skill over luck, go for Predict.

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Originally Posted by Gimbles

Like I said on some other boards, AK is more explosive and less consistant, Predict is less explosive and more consistant. If you want to randomly win games you shouldn't go for AK, if you want to win because of skill over luck, go for Predict.

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That's funny; every instance of the word "Predict" I would replace with "AK" and vice versa. :) AK is more consistent, but less explosive, etc.

A few thoughts:

I'm not as squeemish about the late game as Hat here, for one. True, you don't have Fact to fill your hand, but with all of the land fetch and limited number of lands you're running, by the time you hit the 25th or so card in your library, you're drawing nothing but business or more cantrips (and less land in the deck) with which to find your business (i.e. beaters and counters). After a battle of attrition, with both you and your opponent trading one-for-one on threats/answers; you're in a much better position to stabilize and pull the game out.

True, Thresh doesn't have a similar endgame as Tog or MUC (one threat on the board and a fistfull of counters), but the outcome is the same.

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(Ob Freely) What you're missing is that Gro loses more games because it can't generate card quality advantage quickly enough in the early game than it loses because it can't gain pure card advantage in the lategame.

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Thresh doesn't rely on "true card advantage" but it's much better at drawing what it needs when it needs than something like MUC since all of the cards play have different structural roles depending on the game state. I tried to explain the polymorphous nature of the deck's elements in the beginning of the first post on page 1. It's one of the most subtle and easily overlooked mechanics of the of the deck. That is, Werebear is a mana elf, blocker, or beater depending on what you need. Cantrips are proxy lands, creatures, and removal. Fetchlands are basic lands, duals, Ancestral Recall (with Brainstorm), threshold builders, etc.

The peculiar advantage this deck has: it just draws better cards than its opponent. And this is true for a variety of reasons: less land -> more spells, more cantrips -> better topdecking, raw efficiency of threats/answers. So a classic application of card advantage misses what's really going on you're playing this deck.

And I don't mean to talk down or anything here, I know you know how to play this deck Ob Freely, I've lurked at The Source long enough to know that. I'm trying to explain the inner workings of the deck to those who just discovered this thing and want to know why it works.

@ Mr Nightmare. I thought that article sucked. :( It's like he just read my stuff at SCG and condensed them, and not well, I might add.

Re: Predict vs. AK. First off, I finally took the plunge and invested $1 for a set of Predicts. :) Man, is my wallet sore... You can even get them for $0.19 a piece at Blackborder.

Anyway, you don't need to draw AK 3-4 for them to be good. This was my misconception when I was building the deck a year ago. And to more reliably see AK 3-4 I was running 1-2 Merchant Scroll/Mystic Tutor to find those elusive buggers. Only later (like later winter/early spring) I realized that was unnecessary. True, AK1 is not an efficient use of your resources, but it's still not bad (not a stunning endorsement) in building threshold or having a blue card for FoW/DS/MisD. But AK2 is right on the money: draw 2 cards for 1U at instant speed. And of course, they just get better from there.

Predict requires more planning, cards, and time, lest you end up with a perpetual AK1 that just mills you a little bit everytime, unless you're lucky. But Predict is a poweful card that has a relevant effect in the deck. But first you rarely have a problem hitting threshold by turn 4-5 without Predict when you have 8 fetchies and 14-15 cantrips anyhow, so the whole "use it for threshold" is not all that compelling. But it's true that you can get the AK2-effect once the deck is up and running (since you have the mana to do so), though drawing into them with Serum Visions/Sleight isn't all that hot.

I'm still undecided, but I understand both sides of the argument. It just doesn't seem as cut and dry as many are making the argument seem.



Edited By bardo_trout on 1133898200

Thats kind of my point, Trout. I'm still not clear about which cantrips to use, because I can see the pros and cons of both. Because of this, I'm using both. Just because it makes things easier, here is my list (it's not really much different from any other UGw)

Creatures
4x Werebear
4x Meddling Mage
3x Mystic Enforcer

Counters/Removal
4x FoW
3x Daze
3x Pithing Needle
2x Counter target Spell
4x Swords

Cantrips
4x Brainstorm
4x Serum Visions
4x Predict
4x AK

Land
4x Trop
4x Tundra
3x Windswept Heath
3x Flooded Strand
2x Island
1x Forest
1x Plains

The board is kinds of meta dependant, although Geddon, BEBs, Engineered Explosives, Mongeese, Naturalize, Sacred Ground, and Compost cycle.

My assertation is this: AK and predict are good together. I run 8 1mana cantrips, and 7 2mana draw spells. Unless something rare happens, I almost always mill my first AK into the yard with Predict. In fact, aside from situationally useless stuff like swords vs. Solidarity, it's the first card I would like to mill. Running both has made my draws incredibly smooth, and although I still have to test with Sleight, in testing the mirror I generally come out ahead because I can generate Real Card Advantage fairly easily. I have to assume this holds true in other control matchups as well. I guess thats the overall point. Do predict and AK need to be mutually exclusive? It seems like there is enough synergy between them that it would be worth running both.

@ the article. Yeah, I said it was *ok* mostly to be nice. Anyone who has read this thread knows way moer about the archetype than that guy anyway.

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Originally Posted by umbowta

There's that whole ''first turn Lackey" problem coming up again. In my UGb, I have been playing Diabolic Edict in the Ghastly demise slot. Basically, I cant count on Ghastly Demise to work for the turn one lackey every time. Even if I happen to have it in my opening hand, I have to also have a fetch to pop to put a card in the grave and get U-sea. So I just prefer Edict. Yes, I allow for the chance of a shitty game one, but, when 4 E-Plagues enter for games 2 and 3, the match is almost gauranteed to be mine. I have actually considered maindecking 2 E-Plague. Thoughts?

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I would think Edict would be even more unreliable in the fact that it cost 2. Demise gives you the chance to be on the draw and still have another answer to lackey. As opposed to Edict which only gives the answer to him if your on the play. Plus the whole targeting part of Demise is also HUGE in this matchup. As the game progresses Edict gets worse and worse with each passing turn due to the fact they are going to play more creatures. Me personally I would rather have a halfway decent game 1 with demise then a shitty game 1 with edcit.

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(Mr Nightmare) My assertation is this: AK and predict are good together.

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Not to throw a monkey-wrench into the gears here, but... Having too many 2cc cantrips compromises drawing out of one-land hands. And the playable 1-land hand phenomenon is the only reason I'm playing Sleight of Hand anyhow.

Here's my draw right now:
4 Serum Visions
4 Brainstorm
2 Sleight of Hand
2 Predict
4 Accumulated Knowledge

The Sleights lower the average cc of the deck and let you pull out of land-light position much better than AK/Predict.



Edited By bardo_trout on 1133895815

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Originally Posted by bardo_trout

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Originally Posted by Gimbles

Like I said on some other boards, AK is more explosive and less consistant, Predict is less explosive and more consistant. If you want to randomly win games you shouldn't go for AK, if you want to win because of skill over luck, go for Predict.

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That's funny; every instance of the word "Predict" I would replace with "AK" and vice versa. :) AK is more consistent, but less explosive, etc.

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And see, I have been getting bad results with AK, I'm not sure why ut Predict has always performed better for me.

Edit: Perhaps it is because I felt you have to run Mental Note and AK toghethor.

Edit2: I'm going to tinker around with draw a bit more.

Edit3: After some additional testing, it appears that Mental Note is explosive, not AK and the problem was the Mental Notes which I though were a necessity with AK. The deck is running smoother than it ever has without even one predict.

[quote="bardo_trout"]

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Not to throw a monkey-wrench into the gears here, but... Having too many 2cc cantrips compromises drawing out of one-land hands. And the playable 1-land hand phenomenon is the only reason I'm playing Sleight of Hand anyhow.

Here's my draw right now:
4 Serum Visions
4 Brainstorm
2 Sleight of Hand
2 Predict
4 Accumulated Knowledge

The Sleights lower the average cc of the deck and let you pull out of land-light position much better than AK/Predict.

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How many lands are you running in your build? I have 19, which may be why I don't really see 1 land hands very often. When I do, the chances are extremely high that I'll either draw the second by turn 2, or have/draw into one of the 8 1 mana dig spells. I think if I were to include more 1cc dig, I would do it in the same configuration you use, although it would then be in the air for me between Portent and Sleight.

In that discussion, does the ability to shuffle outweigh the wait to draw? or have we concluded that Portent is a bad Brainstorm, just like we did when Ice Age was released?

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I would think Edict would be even more unreliable in the fact that it cost 2. Demise gives you the chance to be on the draw and still have another answer to lackey. As opposed to Edict which only gives the answer to him if your on the play. Plus the whole targeting part of Demise is also HUGE in this matchup. As the game progresses Edict gets worse and worse with each passing turn due to the fact they are going to play more creatures.

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I agree with you 100% on every point you made. I'm just willing to take that chance, it's 50/50 whether I'm on the play or not in game 1, and then bring in 4 BeB and 4 E-plague from the board.

Here's the deal. UGx is becoming more popular by the minute. In that matchup, the targeting of Ghastly Demise becomes a huge liablility which is more difficult to overcome through sideboarding. Diabolic Edict, on the other hand, is awesome in the mirror.

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Originally Posted by Mr. Nightmare

How many lands are you running in your build? I have 19, which may be why I don't really see 1 land hands very often. When I do, the chances are extremely high that I'll either draw the second by turn 2, or have/draw into one of the 8 1 mana dig spells.

In that discussion, does the ability to shuffle outweigh the wait to draw? or have we concluded that Portent is a bad Brainstorm, just like we did when Ice Age was released?

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I'm running 18:

4 Flooded Strand
2 Windswept Heath
2 Polluted Delta
3 Tropical Island
3 Tundra
2 Island
1 Forest
1 Plains

If you're up to 8 2cc draw spells, then yes, I think 19 lands is correct; though I'm not sure 8 2cc draw spells is. Though I can't say that for certain.

re: Portent. It just seems inexcusably bad. A lot of times you need creatures and/or lands to play this turn, not next. And the benefits of Portent just don't outweigh that glaring downside.

Let me say this: you will lose some games* just because you (or someone else) is playing Portent. * Though it may not be a significant amount of games (~ 2%) because of the "I need [card x] this turn" problem.

re: Demise vs Edict in UGB. (1. Really, I'd rather just play Tog); 2. When I was tweaking removal slots in GAT a couple of weeks ago, I settled on Smother at the time, after testing Demise/Edict/Smother against many decks. Edict is too unpredicatable in the format right now (too many creatures) and Demise can't nail Confidant, Wretch, Hyppie, Psychatog, etc., etc. Smother kills all of these and more -- though it has its downside too. 3. In the end (i.e. today), I just yanked all of the targetted removal from GAT and am just running 3 Deeds. That's been the most stable configuration I've found, since all of those former removal slots made room for more draw and counters. Something to consider, for what it's worth.



Edited By bardo_trout on 1133908237

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I would think Edict would be even more unreliable in the fact that it cost 2. Demise gives you the chance to be on the draw and still have another answer to lackey. As opposed to Edict which only gives the answer to him if your on the play. Plus the whole targeting part of Demise is also HUGE in this matchup. As the game progresses Edict gets worse and worse with each passing turn due to the fact they are going to play more creatures. Me personally I would rather have a halfway decent game 1 with demise then a shitty game 1 with edcit.

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I thinking it here it all depends on what you see in your meta. More Goblins = Ghastly Demise or Smother, less Goblins = Diabolic Edict. I too was thinking about Deed, but the cost is kinda iffy, but I think it is worth to at least test. Another removal spell I thought about was Devour in Shadow, but I quickly dismissed it because of the BB casting cost :( . If it where 1B then it would be really hot.

What about Omen in this deck? Seems like it might be kinda good. I don't know if it's better than Portent, but it's worth a shot is it not?

Omen's probably worse than Telling Time excepting the occasion when you have a Predict and a single dead card in the top 3 cards. It's got a lot of bad stuff attached to it anyways, seeing as how it's a Sorcery.
-Slay