I would cast silence. Then if it gets forced off of a brain storm, cast petal, rite, then in response to daze or something, ritual twice, pay for daze, then cast empty. Obviously this is me assuming the worst, but it seems like a solid hand
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I would cast silence. Then if it gets forced off of a brain storm, cast petal, rite, then in response to daze or something, ritual twice, pay for daze, then cast empty. Obviously this is me assuming the worst, but it seems like a solid hand
I think that would be a great scenario having Silence and the Rituals at instant speed to pay for Daze. For them to Brainstorm (say twice to dig for Force and Daze), then casting both of those counters, that adds 4 to the Storm count. So we are getting 8 more Goblins while still "having" it due to the large ritual count and the Silence.Quote:
Originally Posted by Megadeus
So it seems like my original thought of just going for it here is more in line with what TES is doing, as opposed to ANT who would probably want to Brainstorm into hate/protection?
If you're hesitant to pull the trigger, TES isn't your deck. In addition to being the best Goblin aggro deck in the format, TES is most definitely a gambler's deck. Saying "12-14 Goblins, go" is quite often the correct play, and a winning play.
With that said, TES really gives you the urge to play Belcher-style "is this the nuts? If not, mull", which is usually wrong, because the 6 or 5 probably won't be that much better, if at all. TES also lacks card advantage outside the combo turn and plays 3 "Dear God why did I draw this ******" Moxes, which makes every card precious.
Also, even if it's not the deck's forte, many slower hands can be negotiated into wins or strong board positions with a bunch of Goblins with enough patience. It's kinda grueling because the deck isn't that well suited for it, but it most certainly can do it.
So be willing to dump Goblins, mulligan only the most atrocious hands (especially while goldfishing), and force yourself to play out long game scenarios because you'll inevitably end up playing those in real games. If you feel like you want more deterministic lines and want to feel more comfortable cantripping, I'd honestly just suggest some ANT variant - Vault Tendrils, 16 cantrip Prosak list, Grim Tutor versions, whatever. All are built to do that stuff better than TES so if those are your natural inclinations, play to them.
And just remember that this deck is in the harder end of the spectrum. Practice makes perfect.
Combo deck wise I'll play tES first and 16 can trip ANT (I love consistency). But yeah sometimes you have to read your opponent for counter spells. This is definitely a gambling mans deck
I definitely see myself pulling the trigger more often then not, and just going for the ~10+ goblin plan if I can do it on like turn 2 safely. The only time I have struggled with this plan was against Elves, when they were able to effectively block/race me while matching my sheer number of creatures. In other cases, I feel like dropping 10+ creatures is very strong and will probably win unless they: Echoing Truth, Tabernacle :(, etc.
I like just going for it, making a slew of dudes and passing. It then puts me in the driver seat and the opponent on the back foot, where they have to really plan out their turns where as I can just turn goblins sideways and get in there.
First off, I have no fucking clue why you just didn't play "Scalding Tarn, go" in your first turn and just save your free stormcount via Probe for turn 2 or 3. Depending on if your opponent slams down a 2cc-card next or not you can decide if you think that you want to go off via Probe + Silence/Ponder + Rituals into EtW (depending on his potential defense) or simply slowroll the game into a Tendrils if he's unwilling to put up some pressure.Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
making goblins and lean back isn't something that you should see as an desired option. There are enough decks out there with Terminus, Engineered Explosives, Deeds, Batterskulls and crap to spoil your fun.
That seems like a good option, just playing a nondescript land and passing. I like the thought of just building an unbeatable hand to Tendril them out if they give you time to just sculpt and put no pressure on, but I could also see an argument that the more time you sculpt the more hate they can draw into if they get an idea of what you are doing. If my opponent played a Tarn and passed I would put him on:
1. Slow but hateful Delver hand
2. Show and Tell
3. Maybe High Tide?
4. Storm
5. ???
With the knowledge of their hand you know exactly how you want to play out the next couple of turns with cantrips. Again, I am new to the deck, so I don't know if just saving the free spell for the combo turn is right, if they will naturally reveal what they are on without you wasting a free storm earlier in the game. This also leaves me open to Daze (if I didn't play a land first), but then again that does give some info, slows them down, and takes a counter out of their hand.
I have found that I like blind casting Probe before anything else to see what they are on, which then provides me with information to know what/when to cast and keep off any cantrips. Also helps me if I draw into a different land I want to use to just go for it???
Then explain me why you casted G.Probe turn 1 if you already have a second land in your hand?Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
I mean, casting G.Probe blind turn 1 is fine, if you fear that you throw your only Rainbow-/Dualland right before the feet of an opponent holding wasteland, but with 2 lands and one being a fetchland, your play is an outright mistake.
If you sit on both, Probe and Silence, you can even trick your opponent into carddisadvantage if you check the coast turn 2/3 and see no counters but Brainstorm, you can start to combo off and the moment he tries to interact by casting Brainstorm (to find a counter), you catch him off-guard with a Silence while BS is still on the stack aka one less card in hand and now he has to respond with his second Brainstorm but has already burned a mana and is forced to find a FoW AND a blue card within the Brainstorm
I Would 100% of the time cast Probe turn 1. You get extremely positive odds of him not having an answer to a turn 1 EtW, in which case you just outright win. Even if he somehow has an answer, casting the Probe turn 1 is only marginally worse than keeping it.
Option 1 out of these two, not even close in my opinion.Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
The problem is: IF the opponent has any way to interact with you (and that outright possible with a blue fetchland in play), you not only wasted a free stormcount but also revealed, which deck you are on and he can take preparations. It's not unlikely that he opts to drop his Goofy turn 2 in this scenario, if you only show a fetchland yourself. And that moment he's dead.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
I'm okay with casting the Probe turn 1 against an unknown deck game 1. There are certainly decks the opponent could be holding that would change my turn 1 plan.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
We don't know if he has a Goyf. Dropping a Scalding Tarn means literally nothing except that our opponent isn't Belcher or Dredge. What if he drops a CB instead of a Goyf? You just lost the game. Maybe he plays a Hymn? Maybe he kills you on his turn. Maybe he is Show and Tell, where waiting a turn means you're probably going to lose. There isn't a single doubt that turn 1 Probe is the correct play imo.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Your argument doesn't make much sense either, since casting an EtW from your hand is practically unstoppable if you know what your opponent is holding. There is almost no benefit in waiting if you're planning to cast your EtW anyway.
Which deck would that be aside a TES/Belcher with a Turn 1 kill so you want to be able to cast Silence and therefore drop the other Land? It's not that the hand offers that much flexibility.Quote:
Originally Posted by davelin
I can see this being a consideration for holding the spell. If he is on the Delver plan with Goyf in hand, he could possibly put a Goyf on board and not leave open Brainstorm mana if we didn't do anything. This then makes the hand an all in on the Goblin plan pretty good.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
That being said, if they were on Belcher or another Turn 1 combo, and they didn't go off, I think I would be ok with waiting for the extra storm count on the combo turn, also leaving up the ability to Silence a mirror match combo during their turn. I do like knowing if they are on the discard plan with some Black deck with Hymn and such, but I think playing Probe turn 1 reveals your hand that you are on combo at that point and a Black deck will almost certainly do the discard spell turn 2, instead of something else to try and disrupt as fast as they can.
I am not sure 100% either way which is right/wrong, I can see situations where both seem correct. That is why I asked also, to see the discussions and help myself learn this deck and these situations which will probably come up A LOT while playing the deck.
Show and tellQuote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Please tell me how this hand should beat S&T in a realistic scenario?Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
If they are on the Lotus Petal for 3rd mana plan, in response to the Lotus Petal you can Silence them (they are on the play)??? This way you can go off the next turn (your turn 2), to make however many Goblins we said 10 (12 minus 2 from the non Silence during combo turn). Pass to them, their turn 3 they play Show and Tell into Emrakul and pass. We swing with 10 Goblins, they block one, go to 11. Pass to them. They swing, we don't block, lose 2 lands and 4 goblins (9 down to 5). Pass to us, we swing for 5??? and deal damage them down to 6?.... so yea we die.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
I think the only way is to have something insane in the sideboard that we can find with the tutor and play on turn 2 (or 3 if we silence) to stop them... but I can't think of anything.
So yes, I don't think we are beating S&T with this hand if they just go for it.
If we draw into Brainstorm we can dig for a Duress?
You turn 1 EtW and Silence the turn before you win the game. I'm pretty sure this hand almost always beats S&T.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Just making sure I am on the right page...Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
Keep 7 was:
Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, Rite of Flame, Gemstone Mine, Scalding Tarn, Gitaxian Probe
Top 2 cards from draw were:
Lotus Petal (draw for turn), Ponder.
So turn one you 1st thing play Probe blind and see the Lotus Petal/Sol Land, Land, S&T, Emrakul, whatever....
Probe (S1), Petal (S2), Land, Rite of Flame (S3, RR), Dark Ritual (S4, RRBBB), EtW makes 10 goblins and you pass. They drop a land and pass.
You swing for 10, pass, and during their upkeep Silence them?
I think even if they draw into a Force of Will and they counter Silence and resolve Emrakul, you still can swing in for 9 bringing them to 1. Then sac enough dudes to Emrakul to be able to live through the 1st Emrakul swing and deal lethal the next turn.
Seems like that is a good enough argument to win off a blind Probe T1 instead of saving it. You sold me :)
Well, in your example we were on the draw, so our opponent did land, go. If you Probe them and they have a turn 2 Emrakul/win (which is pretty unlikely), then obviously that Silence is not going to do anything. Our 10 tokens also won't beat an Emrakul, so your only option is to cast the Ponder we just drew, or to Silence in his upkeep.Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
EDIT for clarification: Opponent on the play:
O: Scalding Tarn
I: Probe into throw my hand at him
O: S&T -> Emrakul
I: Well fuck, I got a dead Silence now and my tokens aren't going to beat that guy
I think the question of Silence vs Ponder isn't that obvious in this scenario. If you Silence to gain a turn, you really only get a new card, but it allows your opponent to draw into countermagic. Now you're probably not beating a turn 2 Emrakul with countermagic, unless you see an Ad Nauseam with your Ponder or something else completely broken, so I think it's arguable that Silencing is the correct play. But this is kind of besides the point. The point is that even against his best hands, you still have a shot if you cast the Probe on turn 1, but you get the added bonus that you just win the game against a lot of his other hands.
So Silence to draw an extra card (allowing him to do the same to potentially get counters), or Ponder to dig for the stone cold Ad Nauseam into Tendril kill (which also seems very weak to counters)? If he has the turn 2 on the play, I don't think we are beating that unless like you said, we get lucky and hit the one of Ad Nauseam, or keep drawing into Silence to stall until we can start casting cantrip on our turn + Silence his turn. Doesn't seem like a good situation for us.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
The more I think about it the more I think of crazy ways to stop the opponent:
We draw into Lotus Petal, effectively giving us 2 mana. If we Gitaxian Probe and see the bonkers turn 2 hand from S&T, and we draw say a Burning Wish off the Probe: could it be relevant/correct to Rite of Flame into Burning wish, grabbing Cabal Therapy and the Petal to cast Therapy naming Show and Tell? This slows him down a bunch until he can find another fatty drop card, at the same time uses Petal, Rite of Flame, Probe, and Burning Wish from our hand effectively slowing us down a bunch too. Is that trade worth it if he just has the turn 2 Emrakul? (Still leaves us with: Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, One Land, with just a land in play)
Admittedly we need help in order to do so. I will still contend that we aren't giving up percentage points (or at least a significant number of them) to cast Probe here.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
If you Ponder into AdN, you can win with Silence next turn, since we have 3 initial mana sources, a Ritual, Rite and Silence.Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
It's obviously not a good situation, which is why I'm emphasizing that it's an unlikely situation, and that we'll just win the game against most other hands, while having a shot at drawing out of it if he has the nuts.Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
Casting Probe, we get the following:
- Instant win against hands that don't win quickly and don't have like 3 FoW (we can still just pass and make the 10 tokens next turn using the Silence.
- Good shot against a naked turn 2 Emrakul (LED+Tutor etc.. from Ponder)
- Pretty terrible shot at winning if he has the nuts of turn 2 Emrakul + countermagic, but still a single out of Ad Nauseam
On first sight it definitely seems worth it, but we can think about it.Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
So we drew Wish, and we're looking to not die to turn 2 Emrakul. If we don't Therapy him, we pass the turn and he drops his Emrakul. Now we have a single draw to find an out, which can only be winning on that same turn or making 24 tokens. The best card we can draw here is either Ritual or Rite because it gives us the following win (call whatever we drew X):
Land (2 now), Petal, Silence, Ritual, Rite, X, Wish, PiF, Probe (drawing whatever), Rite, Ritual, X, EtW
This EtW makes 24 tokens, so we can sac 4 and 2 land to Emrakul and swing for the win. LED and Petal will both work too if he put himself at 18, or if we draw them from a Probe. Aside from drawing a Brainstorm into something broken, I think those are the only outs. It accounts for 6/51 cards, or (3/51)*(13/51) for Probe.
Unfortunately, these numbers don't really tell us much except that we can say something like "Oh, well that doesn't seem like a good plan then, they're pretty low numbers and all", but we are comparing against the other option which is to discard 3 cards to get rid of his S&T and which we can never quantify. In a real life situation, I would just consider my outs, notice that there aren't that many of them, and just Therapy his S&T and hope to draw something broken like a Brainstorm.
- You cast EtW for 10 turn 1, IF they have no FoW/Spell Pierce.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
- You can timewalk them, IF they don't have Ancient Tomb or a counterspell
- All asuming they have S&T already 'cause there was no turn 1 cantrip
Tbh, I would not start discussing scenarios based on drawn cards off Probe/Ponder
Please read my above post. Your first scenario is the complete nuts and you're not beating that. Your second scenario means turn 2 Emrakul, which I go over.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Why are you take examples with Emrakul and not Griselbrand/Omniscience which are much more likely to be S&T'd into play these days? Both beat the 10 GoblinsQuote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
How the hell is this relevant? If he's going to turn 2 S&T, it doesn't make a difference at all, 10 tokens doesn't win anyway. If he has turn 3 S&T, we're Silencing him.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
You still asume that your opponent never has any piece of disruption in all your scenarios, nor have you ever adressed the meaning of him leaving a Fetchland untapped aka don't need to cantrip into anything, so getting your Silence discarded/countered is relevant because the named S&T targets are enough in turn 3.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
If we now discuss scenarios against goldfishes or switch being on the play/draw at will, it's pointless to continue
???? Have you read my posts????Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
I don't get your point here. First of all, untapped fetchland could mean Brainstorm (if he knows what he's doing), and secondly, you are just describing the complete nuts hand again, which I told you I'm willing to lose to, or at least have a very small amount of outs against. By the way, if you're playing against the complete nuts of turn 2 win + countermagic, going Tarn go (as you suggest) is WAY worse than doing turn 1 Probe Ponder.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
I do not do this, read my post.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
I do not do this. Seabass confused this in one of his posts.Quote:
Originally Posted by Lemnear
Dark Ritual, Empty the Warrens, Silence, Rite of Flame, Gemstone Mine, Scalding Tarn, Gitaxian Probe sounds like a weak keep for me on the draw regardless. Turn 1 empty for 10 gets beaten out by turn 2 stoneforge for instance. I might wait on the probe to gain info on a combo turn if i didn't straight mulligan this hand on the draw. On the play I'd consider probe into seeing if I can cast the goblins and winning.
The prescribed game plan seems weak against everything not RUG to be honest. If I suspect I'm against sneak and show I'm looking to save the disruption for the combo turn if I can. Stalling them for a turn will not win it for you against a lot of their draws
I don't know if this hand is a mulligan against a blind opponent. I think I would keep it, since there are a lot of draws that improve the EtW plan quite a bit (anything you can cast basically makes the plan better). However, I would never Probe on turn 1, because there are only 7 cards in my deck that will enable me to EtW on turn 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tammit67
I think there are more decks it's pretty strong against. For instance, it's a good hand against Storm, since you'll get to put pressure on the board and have a Silence. Additionally, the game plan of this hand changes according to what Probe sees/draws. The fact that this hand (in my opinion) GETS to play a turn 1 Probe (because it's a good play), makes the hand better, because you are guaranteed that information on turn 1.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tammit67
Improving the empty plan to 12 or 14 goblins turn 2 or 3 i don't think is that compelling.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
Its ok against storm, you give them a free turn 2 should you drop for empty and the chance to tag the silence for free. They are equipped to kill you on their turn 3 protected at 10 life a reasonable amount of the time. While not terrible there are better hands and I think there are better 6 card hands.Quote:
I think there are more decks it's pretty strong against. For instance, it's a good hand against Storm, since you'll get to put pressure on the board and have a Silence. Additionally, the game plan of this hand changes according to what Probe sees/draws. The fact that this hand (in my opinion) GETS to play a turn 1 Probe (because it's a good play), makes the hand better, because you are guaranteed that information on turn 1.
Wait a minute...
Quote:
However, I would never Probe on turn 1, because there are only 7 cards in my deck that will enable me to EtW on turn 1.
:eyebrow: Which stance do you want to take?:eyebrow:Quote:
The fact that this hand (in my opinion) GETS to play a turn 1 Probe (because it's a good play), makes the hand better, because you are guaranteed that information on turn 1.
EDIT: In general I try to gain the information as close as possible to the turn I am likely to go off. Here it is unlikely I'd turn 1 goblins either due to only having 7 things to hit and a number of opposing options that prevent my line for winning even if I should draw those 7.
An untapped Fetchland can hint to a S&T-deck having the namesake-card in their hand, Stifle, Brainstorm, Spell Pierce, turn 2 Hymn, SFM, Goofy, Daze, Counterbalance, etc. It's a surprise-box with various possibilities and therefore I'm not a Fan of casting T1 Probe just to see one or more options preventing a T1 EtW and have to move to T2 anyways but have less stormcount and less insight about his hand/plays aside from the mentioned Striptease you perform by casting T1 Probe and having to ship the turnQuote:
Originally Posted by Bahamuth
Maybe I didnt make this clear enough. I would probe if I am on the draw, not on the plat.
In my limited experience with the deck, I would do the turn one blind Probe to see what we are up against because of the EtW in hand. If we draw into another ritual or just straight into AdN we are in good shape knowing if the coast is clear. I feel like when I am playing with the deck I am looking to pull the trigger on EtW more often then trying to do the tricky math (that I haven't had enough time learning yet) and trying to get there with a LONG chain a turn or 2 later.
Once I get more familiar with the cantrips and how they are affecting my hands/keeps I will probably be able to know when to go EtW for 10 goblins, or just wait for a longer, stable, Tendril kill.
I normally save most of my free spells until my combo turn, but with a hand with that many rituals and an EtW (no LED/tutor) I am keeping it looking to just shove turn 1 or 2 if the coast is clear. Tammit makes a point that the hand is a marginal keep on the draw... I didn't consider that as an option. I see 1. a kill card (EtW) 2. some lands 3. some rituals. I figure with the Probe turn 1 I can just go for it. I do like the idea of basing this also on what they do (on the draw). If they play some blue land I would be more hesitant to shove into a hand I don't know (for the EtW turn 2 for like 12 Goblins). If they play like a basic mountain, or a Savannah into GSZ -> Drayd Arbor, I am feeling a lot better about holding the Probe for the combo turn to build extra storm..... then again, knowing if they have a Thalia or a hate bear to push a turn earlier seems important, either way, a turn 2 Thalia throws a wrench in either plan and I think I am just shoving in on Goblins if I see the Maverick player get mana in one way or another on their play turn 1.
I just wanna say thanks again to everyone who has been chiming in. Thinking about all these lines seems healthy for learning the deck. :tongue:
Am I also crazy for considering dropping 10 goblins (maybe even 12 with a brainstorm in resp) on T1? Yes we're cold to Force but can play through a Daze.
Would you consider a Brainstorm in your opponents hand as "clear"?Quote:
Originally Posted by oSeabass
The point is that 10 goblins are often too slow as soon as a blocker like DRS, SFM or else makes it onto the battlefield
Playing through a Daze requires you to chain spells correctly, something that not everyone remembers ;)Quote:
Originally Posted by davelin
My point was about odds. Imo the odds against a deck, that opens with "blue-Fetchland, go", to successfully chain 5 spells T1 is very low for only 10 goblins ,which fold to a wide array of decks/spells anyways
After reading about a hundred posts, I have decided I side with Bahamuth. Not because he's Dutch, but because I feel he is right. And that's weird, because I know Lemnear as the more agressive and risk-loving player, while he votes for slow-rolling the hand, and the usually slightly conservative combo player Bahamuth suggests we try to blow up on turn one.
I think that we should always Probe on turn one. Reasons:
1. We can do sick shit on turn one with this hand. We should always check if that's an option. We play TES right?
2. Show and Tell decks can beat us, but the Omniscience-Enter the Infinite decks usually go off after 3 turns or durdling, and even the others still need a nut draw to beat our Silence. Probe will tell us what's what.
3. Another option is Canadian Thresh. Empty is pretty good against them. Probe now is mandatory on turn one, because we desperately need to know what's going on at the other side of the table. We have no other cantrips (remember we haven't seen the Ponder yet), so chances for finding more protection are slim. The extra card Probe draws us, combined with the info we get, will tell us how to play the remainder of our turn one, and how to build up the rest.
4. If they are on StoneBlade, we need to know what's what as soon as possible. They have little counterspells main deck, and we need to know whether our Empty can actually beat them at all (Mystic into Batterskull? Oh crap!).
5. If they are on Miracles, and we durdle for a bit, they get the opportunity to lock us out with Counterbalance. We need to know whether our best option, winning before CB hits the table, is actually an option in the first place (so no Terminus + Brainstorm in hand or something like that).
Mulling this hand? How many beers have you had this evening? We have accelleration, a kill spell, a protection spell, lands and a Probe. Seems amazing to me. Remember this is game 1, we don't know what he plays and the fact that we are on the draw means we see two more cards on our first turn (if we Probe, that is). Snap keep in my opinion.