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personally, with the maverick that is around my area, I've moved to running a virtue's ruin (in the spot of deathmark) as it's an out to mom+canonist/teeg.
But as to the above, thoughtseize doesn't really solve them having that many hate bears/search so I'm not 100% sure what you are saying.
I like Virtue's Ruin a lot. I've been thinking of picking one up for a while. Pyroclasm is a pretty effective wish target against Maverick sometimes, and I can see Virtue's Ruin doing that job but better.
Another poster sounded doubtful about Maverick playing Mindbreak Traps. This might be specific to my area, but in my experience every Zoo, Maverick, and Goblins player has four in the sideboard and will mulligan for them very aggressively.
I'll probably play the Duress in the sideboard for a few tournaments and then decide whether I'd rather have the Thoughtseize or not.
I'm honestly just shocked you guys are having this much trouble with a Green/White deck. I've played against it a bunch and just rolled it every time.
As a Maverick player, it's pretty hard to beat a quick EtW for 10 on turn 1. The deck doesn't need to Tendrils for 20 on turn 1 to win this matchup. EtW is usually sufficient if its early enough. Backup plan for B-wish -> Virtue's Ruin will clean up the rest of the trouble you would have; or Silent Departure/Grapeshot.
I don't see Mav as a bad matchup by any stretch, but I think there is a pretty big upside to having a full out to their possible "lock" (or just a wrath usually) and you aren't really missing much by the slot it takes up.
I have been playing that protection suite for about a month, Bryant, and like it more than 4/4 duress/chant. The extra chant helps a lot against the tempo/landstill decks in my meta.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
Been TESing at local events as it has been proving more fun than UB and better against people who decide they want to show up with a million counters. Scenario of the night given the 2 Ad Naus, 0 Empty, 4/4 disruption split list.
Game two opponent is on a control heavy Bant Blade list. You are going off (if you want to argue having waited here, go ahead). To the best of your knowledge, they have X Spell Pierce, X Counterspell, X Spell Snare, 4 Force of Will, and 3 Snapcaster Mage in their deck along side Canonists post-board. You do not know if they have any GY interaction, they appeared to board 6 or so cards in which is about right for Pierce + Canonist.
Game State:
Them-
3 Blue Duals untapped (Tundra, Trop, Trop if you care)
Stoneforge Mystic with 2 Batterskull in hand
You-
In play-
Untapped City of Brass (plus 2 Tapped Gemstone Mine)
Lotus Petal
Lion's Eye Diamond
6 Black Mana Floating
Storm count of six
Graveyard
Brainstorm
3 Dark Ritual
2 Underground Sea
19 life
48 cards in Library, top cards all unknown
Burning Wish already paid for and resolving
Land drop for turn is used up
Options are:
Past in Flames into Brainstorm with 9 B, 3 U, 1 uncracked Petal floating. Outs are 3 Burning Wish, 2 Ad Nauseam, 4 Infernal Tutor, 1 Tendrils, or 4 Brainstorm seeing 1 extra card and 3 Ponder seeing 2 extra cards to hit one of the above. Brainstorms/Ponders can also chain and Ponder chaining obviously sees more cards.
IGG into Brainstorm with 6 B, 3 U, 1 uncracked Petal and 1 untapped City of Brass. Same outs as above.
Burning Wish for Ponder with 6 Black, 3 U, uncracked Petal floating. Outs are same as above only your Storm count isn't lethal immediately off a Burning Wish (but is off Infernal from a chain).
Dim Ret with 4 B and 3 LED mana floating.
Form opinions, then continue
Some math:
Past in Flames line is 51% to just hit the kill off the Brainstorm. 29% to hit Brainstorm if you don't hit a kill, which gives you another 23% to hit the actual win or about +3%. Ponder is 39% to hit if you draw it, but you are only 22.5% to find it w/o a kill, another +4%. I did not account for finding Bstorm + Ponder off the first Brainstorm or any other cantrip chains. I think they at most add half a percent. That totals about 57-58% to kill. I assume IGG is similar but leaves less floating but an extra Blue to cantrip with, which seems irrel.
Ponder is only lethal from 7 cards in the deck, or 48% to just kill. Chaining Brainstorms and Ponders brings you to lethal storm off Burning Wish, and if you shuffle into a cantrip things get better as you have a full new 3 or 4 shots to hit. I'm too tired currently to do further percentages, but I have a feeling you at least come close to making up the 3% difference. Will come back a couple days later and finish this.
Dim Ret I have no clue. I went with this mostly as a matter of principle and I'm fairly sure it is the stone worst option despite winning. I assumed you were heavily favored to kill from that game state and likely to beat a counter, but I likely overestimated those and under estimated odds of him having two counters (even assuming Pierce is irrelevant). Some quick samples show me at about 75% to kill from this game state, but that's not enough. Exact breakdown from sample size of 20 is about 25% to fizzle (assuming dead, some hands could just go for it a turn or two later), 15% to have no backup, 35% to have single Duress, 10-15% to have Chant, 10-15% to have double Duress. Assuming Pierce is a dead card and 3 Snare, 2 Cspell, 4 Force, he is 65% to have at least one counter incorrectly assuming he always has a blue spell for Force, likely closer to 60% total accounting for that. So, of the single disruption hands you need to assuming the odds of him having two counters (or Snare + Snapcaster when you have just Duress) is less than 10-15% to make the percentages match Past in Flames. Double counter is probably more likely than that. I likely didn't lose too much percentage here, but it's significant (5-10% is my estimate).
I think that another good option is burning wish to Diminishing Returns, I think that I would have tried this.
Against a Blade list w/o CSpell & Canonist I'd have waited but I think going here is better. Did he have anything in his grave to make Snapcaster a relevant topdeck? And side issues like time left and the result of game-1 can influence the decision to wait or go as well.
One question about the gamestate: Was the Stoneforge Mystic in hand or in play? In the unlikely event that it was still in his hand you could make 14 goblins tokens which would race the skull (-13,-11/+4). This obviously does not apply if it is already in play.
Assuming we're going for it and the SFM is in play there's two things to look at; What odds do I have at winning now? & If I don't; what're the chances of still winning later?
The BW->Ponder simply seems inferior to either IGG or PiF so we'll forgo that option.
IGG / PiF:
Almost the same outs to win now (close to 60%) but PiF can flashback for a chance later. To make up for this you can choose not to crack LED directly after IGG (float BB, make BBB BBB, use CoB to Brainstorm and Petal to Wish/Cantrip more, saccing LED for red if you cantrip more). In reality either option is unlikely to give you the win if you fizzle of Brainstorm. The slight increase in winning now from PiF (PiF->BS->Ponder->FB PiF->Ponder or similar lines) coming from the ability to flashback it will make me pick PiF over IGG.
DR:
I'm not a TES pilot so I have no experience with this card. Assuming your calcs are correct you lose close to 10% to win now with this option. You do however get the chance to go off later with the drawn 7 in some situations. I have no clue how often this happens, but I somewhat doubt it'll make up for the 10%.
TL;DR: If the SFM is in hand I go for tokens. If it is not I go for PiF as the flashback option makes it slightly better than IGG and the chance to win is higher than DR. It also doesn't make me shuffle; I hate shuffling.
Regarding Maverick:
Chanting their turn-1 upkeep on the play is often better than duressing. It stops turn-2 Zenith and Mindcensor whereas Duress often doesn't stop Mindcensor (other than stopping the Zenith->Arbor, t2 MC line) or multiple Zeniths. Both do nothing against Bears in hand, but chant does if cast on t2 ofc. Duress preempively takes Trap but most GW pilots don't play trap. Probe is a nice card to know what's up.
If they land their army of hatebears you'll just have to wish for Virtue's Ruin and kill them after.
Mystic was in play and active. If I wait Skull starts putting him out of actual range.Quote:
Originally Posted by JamieW89
I'm pretty sure the percentages on d returns were added to the opening thread awhile back. They're pretty good anytime you have 2 mana floating and amazing if you haven't played a land yet.
I’m glad to see that you’ve joined the ranks!Quote:
Originally Posted by AriLax
The Snapcaster Mages are actually irrelevant. They don’t do anything with the current board state. If Burning Wish has resolved, I imagine you’re practically in the clear minus some sort of Stifle effect or waiting to get you on some sort of Pierce.Quote:
Originally Posted by AriLax
In my eyes it’s either this option or Diminishing Returns, it comes down to, “how lucky do you think you are?” Both options require a decent amount of luck, although, this scenario leaves a player cold to Stifle and Flusterstorm.Quote:
Originally Posted by AriLax
Not an option, seems awful in comparison to the other choices.Quote:
Originally Posted by AriLax
Too risky, while being less mana, it doesn’t have the ability to beat stifle effects or any sort of disruption. Although, this play does avoid the graveyard to protect from Surgical Extraction.Quote:
Originally Posted by AriLax
(Avoids extraction)Quote:
Originally Posted by AriLax
This isn’t a bad option, with that amount of mana floating the kill percentages are actually much higher than you’d believe. It’s probably around that 75% you mentioned. If there’s a cantrip in the new hand the chances of winning skyrocket. There’s also the possibility to protect the kill between Chant effects and Duress. Although, they could in theory draw multiple counterspells. What does happen is an interesting interaction between Returns and SFM. They’re forced to vial in the Batterskull and tap two mana or lose it. Taking away their clock isn’t awful if you do manage to fizzle.
I follow you here, but there’s always the chance you draw the double protection hand. It’s a lot of “What if’s”, drawing the natural Tendrils is also almost a guaranteed win here. As you mentioned, you could always go off a turn or two later also, especially considering that they’ve shuffled back in Batterskull. I believe the best option was in fact Diminishing Returns, not Past in Flames.Quote:
Originally Posted by AriLax
I’d type more, but I’m at work. I don’t know if this helped or not, it’s just what I’d do.
Opening post.Quote:
Originally Posted by lebron jim
With the mana you have leftover I think Returns is right, although PiF is tempting.
While it looks like DR is the "risky" option, I think it's actually the safest. If he untaps with batterskull you are most likely out of the game even after Returns, but you are 100% out of the game if you don't hit off bstorm, so at that point I would rather take my chances with him having 1 mana (I mean... he's going to put bskull into play) and a fresh 7 vs. my fresh 7 + 8 mana.
I would play it by tapping a city + saccing the petal (and using 2 floating B) and leaving LED unbroken, which will still let you cast anything + make Infernal live.
(edit) after re-reading Ari's (I reed gud) post I suppose that option put's you off of having red mana for burning wish. I'd still leave LED up, but it does make it a bit worse.
PiF is tempting, but the best play involving PiF would have been to ship the turn without playing anything. PiF has no life requirement if you dig into a bomb that isn't AdN, generates lethal storm by itself even with batterskull's +4 with a draw that isn't a land/artifact and has no opponent-related variance. Not sure what the opponent's hand looks like, but I won't expect Stoneblade to board in extraction against TES. Drawing a cantrip or bomb next turn almost certainly wins with PiF.
Dreturns is the safest play, you only lose if the opponent draws at least X+1 pieces of relevant disruption, where X is the number of protection spells you draw, or if you don't draw into a bomb. I see the point the above poster made about not cracking LED to make IT live, but I can't say I necessarily agree. With only CoB untapped, along with LED/petal, not cracking LED means you cut yourself off wish and cantrips, which are 9-10 cards depending on how many ponders were taken out in sideboarding. You must crack LED, which leaves CoB + petal and U, which means you get naturally hellbent if you draw IT in any case, unless you draw a hand with 3 ponders, no wish and no artifact mana.
The better question would be if the DReturns play would have been better served without making the land-drop, ie before reaching your current board state. Assuming you played Petal/LED/3 drit/wish to reach the board state, the only time pierce is relevant is when you play your first drit, and there is no way Dreturns is viable paying for that pierce -- once the first drit resolves, pierce doesn't matter anymore. Stoneblade doesn't really play Daze, but paying for Daze with a Gemstone Mine is still fine -- you can make the land drop after daze and end up floating U and a Petal post DReturns for non-B mana, the same as what you would have if you kept the land drop without daze. If you made your land drop, you probably lose to a post Returns hand with a land, IT and without bs. The only thing that would be awkward is if you draw into a chant effect without getting a petal or a land, while having wish, but the chances of not getting a petal or a land (14-15/56 with a draw 7) are low.
I actually think IGG is the better line than PiF since if you miss off of the Brainstorm, it gives you the highest chance of being able to go off again (since you would have a Petal in play, along with City and DR+LED, in comparison to needing 6-7 mana with no rituals and an empty graveyard). On top of that their hand just got reduced to 3 from whatever.
So that makes it between DR and IGG, and at that point, I think it is just between how lucky you feel because in the moment there is almost no chance you would be able to do the math. In retrospect, I'm sure there is a right play, but I can't actually do the math.
I think most people didn't choose IGG as it's against blue, but then and again I don't think any counterspells would have been binned as there are no discard effects and spells that weren't played this turn in the grave. Another strike against PiF this turn is that it requires red, which means you need to either tap city or sac petal. IGG also gives you cards to put back with bs, so drawing into the nuts like chant + IT is almost an autowin. PiF is probably the better play than IGG overall, but only if you pass the turn.
I might run something in excel when I've some spare time.
I actually explained why that is untrue.Quote:
Originally Posted by Occam
Two completely different situations, right? IGG is better because 1) there probably aren't any counterspells in the blade player's grave, 2) it uses black which leaves more coloured mana open, 3) it leaves cards in your hand. With a draw or two to reduce cantrip variance after wishing for PiF without casting anything else, there are definitely a lot of situations where PiF is better. PiF itself plays around countermagic better with flashback, which is relevant if you draw something which means the card they are countering is not restricted to your only out for both IGG and PiF, the brainstorm in your grave. PiF generates more storm -- lethal without flashback on PiF itself, which makes it more likely to win through Batterskull's lifegain.
If you go off with IGG and fail, you have two rits in hand, but it means that you are forced to win with AdN or BW into PiF/Dreturns to get enough storm. With PiF, you don't go off that turn, but drawing any relevant card practically ensures a win with the mana available, can easily win through 8 life gained from batterskull, and every draw you brick on makes the brainstorm less likely to brick. They really aren't the same, and should not be evaluated as though they were both cast on that same turn.
All that is also difficult to discuss without knowing what the opponent has in his grave. Even a brainstorm changes matters.
What you are failing to remember is that to PiF you have to break LED, which means you need to draw an action spell+mana if you fizzle, while with IGG you have to draw an action spell and then you can try and get something going again, however unlikely that may be, it is a higher chance than PiF.Quote:
Originally Posted by Occam
I'm not talking about PiF this turn, in which case you would indeed have to break LED for blue or red. I'm talking about wish for PiF without having cast anything else, and pass/draw. You won't need to break LED then, as you free up the mine that was tapped for wish.
In either case, if brainstorm misses an action spell you have to hit a fetchland to have any chance at all passing the turn.Quote:
Originally Posted by lorddotm
Just wanted to share. Played at a Local tourney yesterday and finished 3-0-1 with TES(1st)
Round 1: Elfball
G1: I mulled to 5 but his cabal therapy misses. Went off with Ad Nauseam> Tendrils for 22
G2: His Cabal Therapy hits my 3 dark rituals. Then he played surgical and Null Rod. My Diminishing Returns whiffs. He went off his turn and continued to rape my hand and library with Cabal and Surgical. I told my self I'm gonna grapeshot this guy on G3 when I get the chance.
G3: Duresed his surgical and Thoughtseized his Scavenging Ooze. Went off with Ad Naueam on my turn> "GRAPESHOT for 20". I could have made it longer but he wasn't a douche, so I stopped there.
Round 2: Mono Black Discard
G1: Mulled to 5 for the 2nd time. He plays the classic Darkrit>Duress>Hymm.
G2: I played the classic T1 Ad Nauseam>Tendrils for 26
G3: It was my turn to disrupt his hand with Duress and Thoughtseize. Then went off with Ad Nausaem>Past in Flames> Tendrils for 26
Round 3: UW stoneblade
G1: He plays the T2 Stoneforge>batterskull. After I passed my turn and his, I went off with Ad Naus on my next turn after he counters my Orim's.
G2: My Thoughtseize was met by his spell pierce. He played his T2 Stoneforge>batterskull. Then I played my duress for his FOW, then pondered to a second Duress for his Batterskull. Having only Burning wish on my hand and lands as the only cards left on his, I decided to go for ETW(he was down to 16 that point). The goblins went the distance.
Round 4: Tempo Thresh(RUG)
ID(not confident yet that I can beat this deck due to lack of playtesting against this. So I agreed/negotiated to draw)
Got Store Credit and a BYE for a next Major Tourney.
One doubt, Do you think that the hands with a lot of mana producers but without manipulation or tutors are mulligan?
For example : 2 Land, 2 led, 3 dark ritual keep or mulligan ?
Mulligan. If you just don't draw a business spell, you die.
Agree, although besides business, if you are playing against a deck with any form of disruption you are also missing protection. A whole lot has to go right in 2 (maybe 3) draw steps for you to have any shot.Quote:
Originally Posted by Namida
Only keep the double LED and triple dark rit hand if you're feeling extremely lucky and want to gamble a lot. Because if you don't draw business you straight lose. I know I kept that hand one time although it was 1 land, 3 LED, 3 dark rit's, and I got bailed out by my opponent tapping tarnished citadel at least 2 times for colored mana and him misplaying by not stripping my hand with a pair of therapies when he was able to and I topdecked tendrils for the win. That will rarely happen though as no optimal dredge build runs tarnished citadel with most opting for undiscovered paradise. But you should typically mulligan the all mana hand unless you've already mulled down to 4 or something quite low where the all mana hand can get there if you draw perfectly.
Thalia, Guardian of Thraben 1w
Legendary Creature - Human Soldier Rare
First Strike
Noncreature spells cost 1 more to cast.
"Thraben is our home and I will not see it fall to this unhallowed horde."
Illus. Jana Schirmer & Jonannaes Voss #24/158 2/1
While this creature isn't the end of TES or combo, it's another obstacle to play around. I'm unsure if it's better than Ethersworn Cannonist or Teeg against us, but it's another option for storm haters. I'm not happy about this printing.
Thank god its Legendary.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
I would say Canonist and Teeg is better as they are easier to tutor for.
Unless some form of hater deck becomes viable, or some aggro control deck adopts a love for sphere effects, I can't see this thing even seeing SB use in any current deck. The only decks that I can see remotely wanting it are either Maverick or D&T... and both already have better options available.Quote:
Originally Posted by Bryant Cook
It is better than Glowrider I suppose.
At least it's legendary.... also it's not really better than canonist, they both say, "play about one spell per turn".
Not only am I glad its legendary. I'm glad its white instead pf green. At least opponents can't GSZ for it and it dies to virtues ruin for those that play it.
This hatebear might justify a different bounce split in the sideboard if it becomes popular. Making Echoing Truth cost 3 is pretty irritating.
I don't see chalice of the void very often, and about wipe away its more strange to see counterbalance than before.
I think that if the new bear would see a lot of play its not a bad idea to replace echoing truth, moreover white decks has wasteland too and having 3 mana for bouncing Thalia can be hard.
From my point of view the best options for replacing echoing truth are Slaughter Pact, Path to exile and lightning bolt.
That just seems worse than Chain of vapor or another deathmark.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwi
Really path or bolt? I would run a chain lightning before I ran bolt. I guess it being instant would warrant it's use, but chain of vapor just seems better.Quote:
Originally Posted by kiwi
Completely agree, an extra chain would work. Chain being instant also help a bit in the maverick MU for hitting mindcensors.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tammit67
Excuse me, I didnt remember chain of vapor :)
What are the biggest differences between this deck and ANT? I've been playing ANT for a while now, but just tendrilsing my opponent each game has gotten boring, not to mention that TES looks way prettier foiled out than ANT. Anywho, are the kinds of hands to keep different than with ANT? I understand that TES is supposed to turn 1/2 as opposed to ANTs turn 2/3, does this mean that hands full of cantrips are bad? Also, how many chrome moxen in an opener is too many to keep it (I assume 2 or more), and how aggresively should I be using them (for example, early on to cast cantrips)? Should you hold back land drops if you think your opponent has a waste?
I’m on the draw with: gemstone mine, gemstone mine , city of brass, chrome mox, infernal tutor, ponder, and brainstorm, keep? I said to myself “what the f*ck, I’ll never know if I don’t go for it” and kept. My opponent drops a memnite, mox opal, and ancient den (I know whats coming next), then comes the sfm for batterskull. I draw lotus petal. I need duress so I play a gemstone mine and ponder into duress luckily, shuffle, imprint infernal tutor on mox and duress the batterskull. It’s turn two and opponent top decks another sfm going for another batterskull but it’s in his sb so he grabs cranial plating, drops seat of the synod and passes. I draw brainstorm, drop another mine and brainstorm into: volcanic island, led, and dark ritual putting the volcanic and city of brass back on top. This is when I realize I am screwed without a shuffle effect and probably have no chance so I go for it and brainstorm seeing the volcanic and city of brass I put back along with my saving grace, infernal tutor. Once again I put the volcanic and city back. i proceed to drop the lotus petal and led, then tap the mox playing dark rit so I can cast my naturally hellbent infernal tutor for ad nauseam cracking led for BBB in response. I find AN and sac the petal for B and cast AN. I ad nauseam down to 5 life, stopping in fear of revealing the second AN, revealing: lands, 3 dark rit, 2 rite of flame, lotus petal, 2 led, 2 infernal tutors, and 3 burning wish. I drop the petal and led’s, sac petal for B then play the dark rits floating BBBBBBB. I cast infernal tutor, revealing burning wish, for burning wish cracking one led for BBB and the other for RRR. Now with RRR and nine B in the pool I discard the rest of my hand and cast burning wish for past in flames. I use the remaining R in the pool to cast both rite of flame putting me at 4R and 9B. I cast the past in flames, leaving 3R and 6B in the pool, I flashback the rituals leaving me with 7R and 14B. The storm count is 23 and I’m at 5 life, at this point I have to stop and think about where I going to go with this. I’m contemplating trying ill-gotten gains to up the count but because I haven’t ever used igg I'm not confident about that route. Next I contemplate using tendrils to up the count but I cannot instantly determine the correct math so I abandon that road and just flashback burning wish for grapeshot. I told my opponent that I save the massive grapeshot for douche bag a$$holes, he doesn’t know I am new to the deck and barely have a clue how to play or the fact that I was extremely lucky and he wasn’t playing blue.
How would I have been able to get the storm count higher with IGG and/or splitting the tendrils damage?
Tendrils him, targeting him enough times to leave him with 2 or 1 life, the rest at yourself (for no life change)Quote:
Originally Posted by rxavage
Use your new 16-18 life to AdN again, and enjoy
That's what i was thinking but i wasn't sure. thanks. can you flashback the rituals again if you flashback the pif?Quote:
Originally Posted by Basaka