Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DragoFireheart
Well, for that card, there are multiple solutions:
A- Run your own as you said. (Mirror matches, Merfolk)
B- Run a redunant amount of 1cmc spells. (Zoo)
C- Run a deck that don't need 1cmc spells. (Stompy)
D- Run decks that shit all over those blue decks and don't care about a stupid counterspell. (Rock, mid-range, etc)
Just the fact I came up with three solutions beyond "run your own" should be evidence enough that the card in question is not broken.
B: This is not a very practical solution. Against decks running Mental Misstep Zoo is:
Merfolk: 66% (As it has always been)
NO RUG: 50%
UW Stoneblade: 40%
Hivemind: 12%
So Zoo beats the creature based deck running Misstep and loses or splits with the Brainstorm based decks running Mental Misstep. Zoo isn't beating the Misstep/Brainstorm decks. It does well when it dodges those.
C: Seriously? We're talking about decks that have a chance at winning, not some garbage that isn't Tier 3.
D: So the real solution is, run Mental Misstep or Knight of the Reliquary. Awesome format you have there. Maybe you and Tom LaPille should sit down and talk about how awesome Great Sable Stag is.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
joemauer
There is something wrong when the best answer to a card is the card itself.
Who says Mental Misstep needs to be answered? It's not Show and Tell into Emrakul. It's not Natural Order into Progenitus. It's not SFM into Batterskull. Mental Misstep doesn't need "answering" any more than Swords to Plowshares or Force of Will or Daze. It's not a game-winning play by itself and as such does not require an answer. It's simply a very strong tempo play.
The notion that you're required to run Mental Misstep in order to answer Mental Misstep is downright preposterous. The only time you're required to answer a card is if that card's resolution will unequivocally cause you to lose the game. If your deck is losing to a resolved Misstep, it's more likely a problem with your deck, not with Misstep.
If Misstep is actually a problem, (and I'm not convinced that it is,) it's because it pushes blue even further towards dominance, not because it's an objectively unfair card.
Quote:
Originally Posted by CorpT
Maybe you and Tom LaPille should sit down and talk about how awesome Great Sable Stag is.
That horse couldn't be any deader. It's time to put down the whip.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CorpT
B: This is not a very practical solution.
Against decks running Mental Misstep Zoo is:
Merfolk: 66% (As it has always been)
NO RUG: 50%
UW Stoneblade: 40%
Hivemind: 12%
So Zoo beats the creature based deck running Misstep and loses or splits with the Brainstorm based decks running Mental Misstep. Zoo isn't beating the Misstep/Brainstorm decks. It does well when it dodges those.
C: Seriously? We're talking about decks that have a chance at winning, not some garbage that isn't Tier 3.
D: So the real solution is, run Mental Misstep or Knight of the Reliquary. Awesome format you have there. Maybe you and Tom LaPille should sit down and talk about how awesome Great Sable Stag is.
Zoo would lose to Stoneblade even without Brainstorm. Stoneforge->Batterskull is what makes you lose. Not Brainstorm.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
majikal
Zoo would lose to Stoneblade even without Brainstorm. Stoneforge->Batterskull is what makes you lose. Not Brainstorm.
And why do they always have a Stoneforge? And a counter for my removal? You can't point to one card and say "this is why blue dominates". It has a critical mass of cards that are superior to cards in other colors. They include: Brainstorm, Mental Misstep, Force of Will and Jace. This combination of cards are the reason blue is dominating. Vengevine without Survival was nothing and Survival without Vengevine was just another Tier 2 deck. But together...
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Zilla
Who says Mental Misstep needs to be answered? It's not Show and Tell into Emrakul. It's not Natural Order into Progenitus. It's not SFM into Batterskull. Mental Misstep doesn't need "answering" any more than Swords to Plowshares or Force of Will or Daze. It's not a game-winning play by itself and as such does not require an answer. It's simply a very strong tempo play.
The notion that you're required to run Mental Misstep in order to answer Mental Misstep is downright preposterous. The only time you're required to answer a card is if that card's resolution will unequivocally cause you to lose the game. If your deck is losing to a resolved Misstep, it's more likely a problem with your deck, not with Misstep.
If Misstep is actually a problem, (and I'm not convinced that it is,) it's because it pushes blue even further towards dominance, not because it's an objectively unfair card.
That horse couldn't be any deader. It's time to put down the whip.
This. This. This.
If you haven't read this well laid post, please read.
What one mana card ends a game on the spot when countered by mental misstep?
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DragoFireheart
Well that begs the question now doesn't it?
No, it doesn't, and I'm not sure you understand what that phrase means. Begging the question does not refer to a situation in which a question is actually asked, it refers to a situation where A is true because of B and B is true because of A, but neither is an accepted premise.
Quote:
How would you define as too good? A high representation in the Top 8? Abstract power? Relative power? Some other criteria?
"Too good" would mean that it is either in a very large percentage of decks- at a guess, I would say that 2/3 is generally the red zone although it matters more for some card types than others- or that the card contributes to archetype or color stagnation.
But that's more of a call for looking at something to be banned, not necessarily the most prevalent card in that metagame. For instance, Force of Will was more common than Flash during GP: Flash, but Flash was the problem card that caused this shift.
Generally one should adopt a "least harm" approach to the banned list, which I think is the strongest argument for banning MM over Brainstorm if anything is to be banned.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
I'm going to predict that Mental Misstep gets the axe tomorrow. Some random cards will probably come off the banned list, but I have no idea how the DCI decides what to unban.
Factors which make it likely for Mental Misstep to survive the banning tomorrow include the following:
- "Answer" cards are inherently less broken than "threats", and Mental Misstep does allow fair decks to fight against combos.
- Metagame has slowed down to some extent, so that control decks are more viable than previously.
- Despite the previous point, Mental Misstep has discouraged players from playing the really slow decks that often cause rounds to go overtime (Countertop and High Tide strategies).
- All colors--not just blue--now have access to answers against broken strategies like Storm.
- Despite the prevalence of Mental Misstep (with Top 16s often running ~80% of the allowable slots), there is a lot of variation in decks that play Mental Misstep. That is to say, Mental Misstep isn't central to their strategies or a defining feature of the deck. The strategy of Survival decks clearly revolved around that single card. Mystical Tutor combo decks made use of broken sorceries and instants, and Tutor allowed them to easily and quickly assemble the necessary combo and/or any protection pieces (even though I would argue that Mystical Tutor decks didn't make up a disproportionate percentage of the metagame, nor were they too successful).
However, here are the factors in favor of banning Misstep:
- The metagame now is clearly less diverse than it was from January to May. Decks like Goblins, Elves, Storm Combo, Countertop, and High Tide have fallen off the map. Despite their position as "Decks to Beat", I've noticed much less Rock, Zoo, and Merfolk than before (but they aren't extinct, just less played, which I think is fine in a healthy metagame). Regardless of whether you attribute these to other factors ("these decks are bad", "no one is willing to build their own deck", etc.), this point cannot be disputed.
- Getting your 1-drop Misstepped countered in the early game doesn't just mean your threat is getting answered, but that you are taking a brutal tempo beating in a format in which tempo is even more important than ever. For this reason, I have added Mental Misstep to all my blue decks, added Mental Misstep to all my non-blue decks that can accommodate it (non-linear strategies like Zoo and Maverick), and no longer play decks that cannot accommodate Mental Misstep (Storm, Elves, Dredge, etc.--and in my opinion, Goblins, even though I am aware many players do include MM).
- Even if all decks are able to cast Mental Misstep, the card is extremely strong in the early game (against a blind opponent, there is no single card I would rather see in my opening 7, even in multiples) and often a blank late during topdeck mode. Unfortunately, this has the consequence of making games swingier than ever. Similarly, it makes having Brainstorm more important than before. We have discussed the merits of banning Brainstorm, but it is because of Misstep that Brainstorm is more powerful than ever. (Personally, I think Brainstorm is overpowered, but it is a defining card of Legacy, intrinsic to the way it's played, so I would prefer it stays.)
- The card is an answer, but it is also a huge tempo play, and the alternate cost of just two life is way too low. I would not argue that it is "broken", but I can see why someone would based on that logic.
- The card sees way too much play, even more than Force of Will, Brainstorm, Tarmogoyf, etc. I don't think the ubiquity of a card is necessarily a bad thing, but many people do.
I personally don't think Mental Misstep is a card that needs to be banned, but it is a strong candidate for it. I will continue playing Legacy either way. I won't complain if it survives tomorrow, since it's probably my favorite card since Cursed Scroll, but I won't complain if it gets the axe either (and I would believe the format would be more fun as a result).
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
crovakiet
Sounds interesting, especially if it had Tom playing UW Mystic for the lulz. Is there a report anywhere for this tournament showing top 8 results and/or match summaries?
The results are up, but only a few of the Top 8 lists have been posted as of yet. I walked around at one point and wrote down a lot of the archetypes, if you're interested. (I saw about half the room.)
http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=4585
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
ESG
Man i'd find it hilarious if somehow SFM, NO and SnT get banned tomorrow.
Like laughing to no end.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
DragoFireheart
Well that begs the question now doesn't it?
How would you define as too good? A high representation in the Top 8? Abstract power? Relative power? Some other criteria?
I'd use this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Strategic_dominance
Re: All B/R update speculation.
I expect following:
Unbanned in legacy: Balance, Earthcraft, Land Tax.
Banned in Legacy: Mental Misstep, Brainstorm.
Unbanned in Modern: Mental Misstep.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
My guesses for Tuesday,
-brainstorm and mental misstep banned in legacy
-grapeshot and empty the warrens banned in modern
-No changes in vintage, type II, other formats
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
swoop
I expect following:
Unbanned in legacy: Balance, Earthcraft, Land Tax.
Banned in Legacy: Mental Misstep, Brainstorm.
Unbanned in Modern: Mental Misstep.
I can't see Balance ever coming off the Legacy banned list.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Zilla
It's not a game-winning play by itself and as such does not require an answer.
Zilla I agree with basically everything you've said except for this post. If you think Mental Misstep isn't a game-winning play, you've probably never had Dark Ritual or High Tide Misstepped.
EDIT: My (tenuous) banlist predictions.
Legacy: Misstep banned. Maybe Earthcraft or Mind Twist will come off, but I don't feel too confident about that.
Modern: Emrakul and Rite of Flame banned. Either Jace and/or Ancestral Visions unbanned.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CorpT
And why do they always have a Stoneforge?
Because they mulligan until they find it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CorpT
And a counter for my removal?
A. Because it's a deck full of counters.
B. Ancestral Visions.
C. Dig spells which could just as easily be Ponder or Preordain in that deck and not even make a difference.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
CorpT
You can't point to one card and say "this is why blue dominates". It has a critical mass of cards that are superior to cards in other colors. They include: Brainstorm, Mental Misstep, Force of Will and Jace. This combination of cards are the reason blue is dominating. Vengevine without Survival was nothing and Survival without Vengevine was just another Tier 2 deck. But together...
Wait, just a second ago you were arguing that Brainstorm was the sole reason blue was dominating. Which is it?
edit- RE: http://www.northwestmagic.com/forums...ead.php?t=4585
It seems apparent to me that decks with a strategy based around tutoring and cheating mana costs are the ones actually dominating. Blaming Mental Misstep seems misguided. I honestly expect Natural Order to get the axe tomorrow, first of all. Secondly, Stoneforge Mystic is a candidate, however I think that it can be suppressed by decks that lose to Natural Order if NO gets banned. Show and Tell is also somewhat likely, but it doesn't tutor so they might leave it alone, even if it is obnoxious.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
This is for sure one of the hardest B&R changes to call because Modern is going to get turned upside down if Wizards has any common sense at all.
My guesses, not what I want to happen, just guesses.
Legacy
Stoneforge Mystic- Banned
Mind Twist- Unbanned
Earthcraft- Unbanned
Modern
Rite of Flame- Banned
Emrakul- Banned
Scapeshift- Banned
Valakut- Unbanned
Ancestral Visions- Unbanned
Golgari Grave-Troll- Unbanned
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
joemauer
The best answers to SotF:
1: Play extirpate(black exclusive)
2: Play deck that doesn't care about SotF(fast combo)
3: Play SotF in your own deck.
Answers two and three sound like the answers you gave to battle MM.
- The fact that you are comparing SotF with MMS invalidates your position. MMS is a counterspell that only hits cmc1 spells while SotF is a win condition that can tutor 4/3 hasty dudes on turn 2/3. They are abou as comparable as an Island to Black Lotus.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Admiral_Arzar
Zilla I agree with basically everything you've said except for this post. If you think Mental Misstep isn't a game-winning play, you've probably never had Dark Ritual or High Tide Misstepped.
Whenever Mental Misstep hitting Dark Ritual or High Tide actually wins a game it will most of the time be due to one (or both) of two things:
1) The Combo player is just bad.
2) He's being pressured quite hard thus having to just go for it unprotected. In this case, Mental Misstep didn't actually win the game. It was just the last card played.
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
majikal
Because they mulligan until they find it.
A. Because it's a deck full of counters.
B. Ancestral Visions.
C. Dig spells which could just as easily be Ponder or Preordain in that deck and not even make a difference.
Wait, just a second ago you were arguing that Brainstorm was the sole reason blue was dominating. Which is it?
-Don't waste your time with him. He's obviously has an agenda against blue decks/cards/things.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
TheInfamousBearAssassin
No, it doesn't, and I'm not sure you understand what that phrase means. Begging the question does not refer to a situation in which a question is actually asked, it refers to a situation where A is true because of B and B is true because of A, but neither is an accepted premise.
- I worried my rhetorical question poorly.
Quote:
"Too good" would mean that it is either in a very large percentage of decks- at a guess, I would say that 2/3 is generally the red zone although it matters more for some card types than others- or that the card contributes to archetype or color stagnation.
But that's more of a call for looking at something to be banned, not necessarily the most prevalent card in that metagame. For instance, Force of Will was more common than Flash during GP: Flash, but Flash was the problem card that caused this shift.
Generally one should adopt a "least harm" approach to the banned list, which I think is the strongest argument for banning MM over Brainstorm if anything is to be banned.
- So in other words you have only a vague idea of what would need to be banned using your criteria? Do you think MM should be banned over brainstorm? Do you think either should be banned?
Re: All B/R update speculation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by
Admiral_Arzar
Zilla I agree with basically everything you've said except for this post. If you think Mental Misstep isn't a game-winning play, you've probably never had Dark Ritual or High Tide Misstepped.
This is exactly what I'm talking about. Mental Misstep isn't overpowered just because it makes combo play fair with non-blue decks. I mean I'm sure it was nice having a 70% matchup vs. Zoo/Goblins/Rock/Sligh decks for the past 7 years, but now a days there is finally a relevant SB cards vs. combo. I personally don't think Misstep countering a Ritual effect that would have won you the game for free qualifies it as particularly ban worthy. On the contrary I think that is the exact reason it should never be banned.
