4 Card Blind

Unlif3's results for round "Afflictions & trading wins galore":

1. Asthereal (TO): Godless Shrine, Dryad Militant, Dutiful Thrull, Shrieking Affliction
Whoever is OTP wins. 3-3
2. Wrath of Pie: Swamp, Rakdos Cackler, Rakdos Cackler, Shrieking Affliction
Whoever is OTP wins. 3-3
3. square_two: Breeding Pool, Wasteland Viper, Rapid Hybridization, Serene Remembrance
Such an elegant submission.
OTP:
Crypt (U=18), Cackler / Pool (S=18), Viper
Mugging the Viper, swing (S=16) / Serene on Viper. IIRC the 4CB rules specify that when computing random things, we take the worst line, so you will redraw Serene first.
Swing (S=14), Affliction / Affliction trigger (S=11), draw Serene, pass
Swing (S=9) / draw Viper, play Viper
and from there Viper trades and all I get is an extra Affliction trigger before getting Hybridized out of the game. 0-6
4. Tylert: Swamp, Drainpipe Vermin, Shrieking Affliction, Shrieking Affliction
I can't race two Afflictions with one + a Cackler, but I sure can Mug Vermin when you're tapped out and get the draw. 2-2
5. H: Blood Crypt, Shrieking Affliction, Drainpipe Vermin, Mugging
We should be trading wins OTP. 3-3
6. Unlif3: Blood Crypt, Rakdos Cackler, Mugging, Shrieking Affliction
That's me !
7. FTW: Overgrown Tomb, Swamp, Abrupt Decay, Lotleth Troll
I Mug the Lotleth when you're tapped out, you can't just sit on cards or you'll get Cackled out. 6-0
8. GoblinSmashmaster: Blood Crypt, Shrieking Affliction, Mugging, Rakdos Cackler
Nice submission mate. 3-3

Total points, if I'm correct: 20 points?

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Unlif3

3. square_two: Breeding Pool, Wasteland Viper, Rapid Hybridization, Serene Remembrance
Such an elegant submission.
OTP:
Crypt (U=18), Cackler / Pool (S=18), Viper
Mugging the Viper, swing (S=16) / Serene on Viper. IIRC the 4CB rules specify that when computing random things, we take the worst line, so you will redraw Serene first.
Swing (S=14), Affliction / Affliction trigger (S=11), draw Serene, pass
Swing (S=9) / draw Viper, play Viper
and from there Viper trades and all I get is an extra Affliction trigger before getting Hybridized out of the game. 0-6

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If you look at my analysis just before your post, I am not sure this is true. If he Hybridizes your creature, he could "Fog" on attack, but I don't know that he can really race Affliction from there. But maybe I did the math wrong.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by H

If you look at my analysis just before your post, I am not sure this is true. If he Hybridizes your creature, he could "Fog" on attack, but I don't know that he can really race Affliction from there. But maybe I did the math wrong.

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I'm playing Cackler and not Drainpipe. The extra P/T doesn't matter a whole lot for me there, but the discard from Drainpipe offers you extra opportunities to trigger Affliction, which I can't afford.
I'm super-bad at combat math though, so this is to be taken with a grain of salt I think.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Unlif3

I'm playing Cackler and not Drainpipe. The extra P/T doesn't matter a whole lot for me there, but the discard from Drainpipe offers you extra opportunities to trigger Affliction, which I can't afford.
I'm super-bad at combat math though, so this is to be taken with a grain of salt I think.

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I think we draw when you are OTP.

OTP (for you)

U: Crypt, Cackler (u18)
S: Pool, Viper (s18)

U: Mug Viper, attack (s16)
S: Serene, pass (lib serene/viper) (hand RH)

U: SA, attack (s14)
S: lose 3 (s11), draw Serene, pass (hand Seren/RH)

U: attack (s9)
S: draw Viper, play Viper (serene/RH in hand)

Here at least I could draw - no more SA damage and I can block forever.

U: attack????, I block with Viper

S: I serene the Viper (RH hand, Serene/Viper library)

U: nothing

S: lose 3 (s6), draw Serene, I win out from there with 1/2 beater

U: don't attack????

S: I attack with Viper -> you can't block (u17)

U: If you attack, that's bad race for me so I have to RH my tapped Viper and block, leaving Serene in hand

S: lose 3 (s6), attack 3/3 (u14), Serene (library serene/rh/viper) and I lose from there

Looks like draw.

(I'd be trying to puzzle out my points, but at work atm and it takes a bit, I'll try to post in tonight and check over the solves)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Unlif3

3. square_two: Breeding Pool, Wasteland Viper, Rapid Hybridization, Serene Remembrance
Such an elegant submission.
OTP:
Crypt (U=18), Cackler / Pool (S=18), Viper
Mugging the Viper, swing (S=16) / Serene on Viper. IIRC the 4CB rules specify that when computing random things, we take the worst line, so you will redraw Serene first.
Swing (S=14), Affliction / Affliction trigger (S=11), draw Serene, pass
Swing (S=9) / draw Viper, play Viper
and from there Viper trades and all I get is an extra Affliction trigger before getting Hybridized out of the game. 0-6

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U - Untapped Crypt & Cackler, because you need to pressure his life before his engine comes online (U=18)
S - Untapped Pool & Viper. No point in playing a tapped land, since he would take an extra 2 from Cackler. (S=18)

U - Mugging. Attack (S=16)
S - Serene --> Serene first, then Viper

U - Affliction. Attack (S=14)
S - Trigger (S=11). Draw Serene. Pass

U - Attack (S=9)
S - 2 cards = no trigger. Draw & play Viper.

U - If you attack, Viper trades, then he casts Serene to get it back taking only 3 more Affliction damage before the 1/2 kills you. Instead you pass and play for the draw.

At this point S can either do nothing too and accept the draw, or try to win. But he's 1 life too low to win.

S - 2 cards = no trigger. Attack with Viper. (U=17). Pool is untapped.
U - If Cackler doesn't attack back, Viper attacks 17 more times FTW, so Cackler attacks. He Hybridizes tapped Viper making a 3/3, blocking and killing Cackler.

S - 1 card = trigger (S=6). Cast Serene -> Serene, Hybrid, Viper
U - Do nothing

S - 0 cards (S=3). Draw Serene. Attack (U=14)
U - Do nothing

S - 1 card (S=0). With just 1 more life, he would draw a 2nd card and stabilize while the 3/3 kills you, but he's too low. Therefore he can't play for the win and has to draw above.

OTD the extra turn saves him a Cackler hit, which is enough to stay above 0 to make that 3/3 and win.
For other matches it should be the same thing. He needs to have at least 10 life with Viper vs Affliction + creature to play for the win. Otherwise it's a draw.
This is a hard analysis. What a crazy innovative deck.

Should be DL 1-4 for Unlif3

Quote:

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Originally Posted by square_two

I think we draw when you are OTP.

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Ninja'd! Yeah, my analysis agrees.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by H

H: Blood Crypt, Shrieking Affliction, Drainpipe Vermin, Mugging

3. square_two: Breeding Pool, Wasteland Viper, Rapid Hybridization, Serene Remembrance
My intuition says I lose these, but I don't know what the math says.

If I am on the Play:
H: Crypt, untapped [H=18], Vermin. (Affliction does nothing here.)
S2: Pool, lets say Untapped [S2=18], the only card that does anything is Viper.

H: Mugging on Viper, attack for 1, [S2=17].
S2: Remembrance, shuffling Remembrance and Viper. Library order: Remembrance on top and Viper on bottom.

H: Attack for 1, play Affliction. [S2=16]
S2: Only RH in hand, so take 3 from Affliction [S2=13], pass. Hand is now RH, Remembrance.

H: Attack for 1 [S2=12]
S2: No Affliction damage, Draw Viper, play Viper.

H: If I attack and S2 blocks, I can trigger Vermin. If S2 discards Remembrance, I don't think Hybridiazation on the Viper can win the race, since S2 will be at 9 on the next turn, the 3/3 won't be able to attack until the following turn and I am at 18 then to 6. So, the discard, if it happens must be Hybridization. That would delay a 3/3 by another two turns, which I don't think gets there. So, it would seem that it's best to not block at all. So, [S2=11].
S2: Hybridize the Viper, pass.

H: I definitely want to attack here, since Remembrance is the only card in hand. Again, S2 can't race here with just a 3/3 losing Remembrance, so, no block. [S2=10].
S2: Only one card in hand, Remembrance, so [S2=7]. Cast Remembrance, order is Remembrance, RH, Viper. You have a 6 turn clock (18/3) but I have 3 coming next turn, (4), plus 3 on the following turn, plus a potential attack (7). So, attacking does not seem to win yet, so pass.

H: No attack since it can be blocked.
S2: No cards in hand, so Affliction [S2=4], one card in hand, Remembrance, does nothing, so pass, the attack still can't race.

H: Attack, since I can trigger Vermin for gain on a block. If no block, I win the the following upkeep. If blocked, I trigger Vermin, discarding Remembrance, then there is no way for S2 to race the Affliction.

So, I think I win on the Play. Unsure about the Draw, but my guess is that it doesn't make that much of a difference?

More analysis needed, clearly.

---

Well, I haven't found the mistake in the above, so I guess I'll try it on the Draw and see what happens.

S2: Pool, Viper. [S2=18] (Here it is hard to say, if the advantage is to play Pool tapped and pass, but lets see what happens.)
H: Crypt, Mugging the Viper. [H=18] (Affliction won't do anything the next turn. Vermin also won't do anything, since Viper can just made a 3/3 and then we are well behind on the race.)

S2: Remembrance the Viper, library is Remembrance, Viper, hand is Hybridization.
H: Affliction, pass.

S2: Take 3, draw Remembrance, pass. [S2=15]
H: Vermin, pass. (Now, S2 could Hybridize, but that would only make the race worse, as far as I can tell.)

S2: Draw Viper, play Viper. Hand is RH and Remembrance.
H: If I don't attack, Viper becomes a 3/3 on the next turn and I don't think I want that, since then RH can be Remembranced and S2 can keep 2 cards in hand the rest of the game. So, I attack, if S2 trades, I pay 1 and S2 discards RH. Then, S2's next turn would be 3 damage (12), one in hand, Remembrance. Casting that, the next turn would be 3 more (9), drawing the Remembrance, then 3 more, (6), drawing the Hybridization. Now, no damage from Affliction, draw Viper, cast Viper. Next turn, no damage, cast the RH on the Viper. Turn after, take 3 (3), cast Remembrance, but there is no time, with zero in hand, there will be 2 more Affliction triggers, so S2 would lose. That remaining trigger leads me to believe that playing the Pool untapped turn 1 does not help.

So, possibly I win both. Now, I probably made some errors here, so let me know what they are.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by H

If you look at my analysis just before your post, I am not sure this is true. If he Hybridizes your creature, he could "Fog" on attack, but I don't know that he can really race Affliction from there. But maybe I did the math wrong.

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OTP at best you can draw. I don't know if there's a line where he can sneak a win OTD. This is complex. I say if there is one, he has to find it, otherwise it's DD.

H - Crypt. Vermin. (H=18)
S - Tapped Pool, because you only have a 1/1.

H - Affliction. Attack (S=19).
S - 3 cards = no trigger. Viper.

H - Mugging. Attack (S=18)
S - 2 cards. Serene -> Serene, Viper

H - Attack (S=17)
S - 1 card = trigger (S=14). Draw Serene.

H - Attack (S=13)
S - 2 cards. Draw and play Viper.

Now you have no way to pressure his life total. If you attack into his Viper, he wins...
H - Attack. He blocks and kills you. You pay B. He discards RH.
S - 1 card (S=10). Serene -> Serene, RH

H - Can't do anything
S - 0 cards (S=7). Draw Serene. Attack for 1 (H=17)

H - Pass
S - 1 card (S=4). Draw RH. Attack for 1 (H=16)

H - Pass
S - 2 cards = no trigger. Attack for 1 16 more times FTW.

If you don't attack into his Viper, he can also do nothing and draw, so playing for the draw is your best line.

He could try to play for the win, which means finding a way to get rid of Drainpipe Vermin, then trade with the 3/3 token, then make another body to attack you. I can't find a line where he has enough life to do it. They all fall short and end in draws. So I don't think he can't win.

Looks like draws

Quote:

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Originally Posted by H

Well, I haven't found the mistake in the above, so I guess I'll try it on the Draw and see what happens.

S2: Pool, Viper. [S2=18] (Here it is hard to say, if the advantage is to play Pool tapped and pass, but lets see what happens.)
H: Crypt, Mugging the Viper. [H=18] (Affliction won't do anything the next turn. Vermin also won't do anything, since Viper can just made a 3/3 and then we are well behind on the race.)

S2: Remembrance the Viper, library is Remembrance, Viper, hand is Hybridization.
H: Affliction, pass.

S2: Take 3, draw Remembrance, pass. [S2=15]
H: Vermin, pass. (Now, S2 could Hybridize, but that would only make the race worse, as far as I can tell.)

S2: Draw Viper, play Viper. Hand is RH and Remembrance.
H: If I don't attack, Viper becomes a 3/3 on the next turn and I don't think I want that, since then RH can be Remembranced and S2 can keep 2 cards in hand the rest of the game. So, I attack, if S2 trades, I pay 1 and S2 discards RH. Then, S2's next turn would be 3 damage (12), one in hand, Remembrance. Casting that, the next turn would be 3 more (9), drawing the Remembrance, then 3 more, (6), drawing the Hybridization. Now, no damage from Affliction, draw Viper, cast Viper. Next turn, no damage, cast the RH on the Viper. Turn after, take 3 (3), cast Remembrance, but there is no time, with zero in hand, there will be 2 more Affliction triggers, so S2 would lose. That remaining trigger leads me to believe that playing the Pool untapped turn 1 does not help.

So, possibly I win both. Now, I probably made some errors here, so let me know what they are.

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On that paragraph where I draw and play viper, instead if I draw and rapid your vermin, then I believe I eek out a draw at 3 life. That way I don't discard, you get one attack before I play viper, then SA is too slow for me to get serene and rapid back to hand. Left with your 3/3 to my deathtouch and I can't afford to cast serene or rapid anymore.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by square_two

On that paragraph where I draw and play viper, instead if I draw and rapid your vermin, then I believe I eek out a draw at 3 life. That way I don't discard, you get one attack before I play viper, then SA is too slow for me to get serene and rapid back to hand. Left with your 3/3 to my deathtouch and I can't afford to cast serene or rapid anymore.

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Yeah see my comment above. If you play your land tapped and take a different line, you can easily play for the draw in several ways.

I can't figure out if there's a win somewhere when you go first, but otherwise it's 2 draws. DD 2-2

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Unlif3

2. Wrath of Pie: Swamp, Rakdos Cackler, Rakdos Cackler, Shrieking Affliction
Whoever is OTP wins. 3-3

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Convince me that somehow we avoid the Affliction staring contest. (This also applies to the mirror.)

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Wrath of Pie

Convince me that somehow we avoid the Affliction staring contest. (This also applies to the mirror.)

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you both want to score points. so you let him win the first game and he's kind enough to let you win the other one....

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Wrath of Pie

Convince me that somehow we avoid the Affliction staring contest. (This also applies to the mirror.)

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Actually, come to think of it, I can't really convince you.

I did some quick napkin math after posting decks and kind of assumed OTP would win.
Somehow, everybody just accepted that idea and ran with it.
But... the first one to drop below two cards in hand will get the first Affliction damage and will probably lose the race.
This means playing Affliction first might actually lose in a number of instances. So we'll need to examine the mirrors further.

Not tonight, though. I need to get some sleep. I'll look at it again in the morning.

My pseudo-mirror is rather simple, Cackler dies to Mugging and we stare with two cards in hand to avoid losing to Affliction. The actual mirror works out the same way, except the roles swap based on play/draw status. I might beat H just because I can outrace once I empty my hand and a Vermin trigger is no longer a threat, should check the math on that.

You vs. the other Affliction hands is the interesting matchup, because Dutiful Thrull being a 1/1 is enough of a liability to be a problem against 2/2s.

3. square_two: Breeding Pool, Wasteland Viper, Rapid Hybridization, Serene Remembrance

Did some scratchwork last night and I believe I'm caught up on this mess. If only Serene Remembrance had a cantrip attached at the end! :wink:

1. Asthereal (TO): Godless Shrine, Dryad Militant, Dutiful Thrull, Shrieking Affliction

OTP I can end up at 3 life with a Viper in play and 2 in hand to your Thrull/SA
OTD FTW outlined drawing here and it seemed sound
DD - 2 pts

2. Wrath of Pie: Swamp, Rakdos Cackler, Rakdos Cackler, Shrieking Affliction

OTP/OTD I think I simply RH my Viper, then Serene all back to hand, giving me Viper and 3/3 to attack with
OTP I saw that I end up with 3/3 and Viper at 9 life to your SA and single Cackler, so seems favorable OTD also.
WW - 6 pts

4. Tylert: Swamp, Drainpipe Vermin, Shrieking Affliction, Shrieking Affliction

Having Vermin make me discard means I lose, and if I RH Vermin immediately, the double SA does me in before recovering cards.
DD - 2 pts

5. H: Blood Crypt, Shrieking Affliction, Drainpipe Vermin, Mugging

Pretty similar. Will let you guys' analysis stand :)
DD - 2 pts

6. Unlif3: Blood Crypt, Rakdos Cackler, Mugging, Shrieking Affliction

See FTW analysis. I can eek out Draw OTD and OTP there's one less Cackler hit to allow me to create 3/3 and takeover.
WD - 4 pts

7. FTW: Overgrown Tomb, Swamp, Abrupt Decay, Lotleth Troll

Either way I kill Troll the turn he comes down, and can recoup my stuff.
WW - 6 pts

8. GoblinSmashmaster: Blood Crypt, Shrieking Affliction, Mugging, Rakdos Cackler

Same as Unlif3
WD - 4 pts

Total - 26

Time for some Affliction math, I guess.

me vs. Asthereal is simple, being ahead in life forces Asthereal to play into Affliction, and thus he loses both ways.

me vs. Mugging/Cackler at best draws, on the draw I see no winning line but there might be one on the play:

W - Swamp, unleash Cackler
M/C - Blood Crypt, untap it (M/C @ 18), Mugging the Cackler
W - unleash Cackler 2
M/C - Affliction (playing Cackler loses the race)
W - Affliction trigger (W @ 17), attack with Cackler (M/C @ 16), Affliction
M/C - Affliction trigger (M/C @ 13), unleash Cackler
W - Affliction trigger (W @ 14), attack with Cackler (M/C @ 11)
M/C - Affliction trigger (M/C @ 8), attack with Cackler (W @ 12)
W - Affliction trigger (W @ 9), attack with Cackler (M/C @ 6)
M/C - Affliction trigger (M/C @ 3), attack with Cackler (W @ 7)

One more Affliction trigger and I win the race, because I still have 2 life left.

me vs. H is probably a win because I can just play out my hand to avoid the Vermin trigger like so:

H - Swamp, Drainpipe Vermin
W - unleash Cackler
H - pass (holds up mana for Vermin trigger and means I play into Affliction first, not passing loses the race)
W - unleash Cackler 2
H - Affliction
W - Affliction trigger (W @ 17), Affliction, attack with both Cacklers (H @ 16)
H - Affliction trigger (H @ 13), Mugging one of the Cacklers

Now I am ahead in the life race and 2 power outraces 1.

H vs. Mugging/Cackler is simple enough, Cackler/Vermin gets hit with Mugging and then there are two options:

H on the play: H can take 7 Affliction triggers while M/C can only take 6 triggers because of Blood Crypt, so H playing out his hand (Affliction, then Vermin is the best order) should win the race.
H on the draw: Playing either card loses the race, so a pass is forced, and without Vermin H cannot force M/C to get into Affliction range, so this is a draw.

Now the Asthereal matchups (other than mine):

Mugging/Cackler can just hit Asthereal's first threat with Mugging and force a draw on the draw, because the first to play Affliction loses so they stare. Mugging/Cackler on the play is a bit more interesting, t1 unleashed Cackler gets in for a hit after Asthereal's first threat is hit with Mugging which creates a life total lead which is enough to win.

Drainpipe Vermin replacing Cackler makes no difference because Swamp replacing a shockland in itself creates a life advantage, so the result should be the same as above.

Looks like I need to edit some of my results.

GoblinSmashmaster Results for Unlif3's deck c/o Unlif3 and Wrath

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Unlif3

Unlif3's results for round "Afflictions & trading wins galore":

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1. Asthereal (TO): Godless Shrine, Dryad Militant, Dutiful Thrull, Shrieking Affliction
Cackler races going first 4-1

2. Wrath of Pie: Swamp, Rakdos Cackler, Rakdos Cackler, Shrieking Affliction
Whoever is OTP wins. 3-3

3. square_two: Breeding Pool, Wasteland Viper, Rapid Hybridization, Serene Remembrance
Such an elegant submission. 1-4

4. Tylert: Swamp, Drainpipe Vermin, Shrieking Affliction, Shrieking Affliction
Mug Vermin when you're tapped out and get the draw. 2-2

5. H: Blood Crypt, Shrieking Affliction, Drainpipe Vermin, Mugging
Mug each other. Playing Affliction first loses. 2-2

6. Unlif3: Blood Crypt, Rakdos Cackler, Mugging, Shrieking Affliction
Mug each other. Playing Affliction first loses. 2-2

7. FTW: Overgrown Tomb, Swamp, Abrupt Decay, Lotleth Troll
I Mug the Lotleth when you're tapped out, you can't just sit on cards or you'll get Cackled out. 6-0

8. GoblinSmashmaster: Blood Crypt, Shrieking Affliction, Mugging, Rakdos Cackler
That's Unlif3!

Total points: 20

Finally found time to re-evaluate my games.
Analysis here: http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...=1#post1077423

I'm pretty sure this is correct now, but if I still missed something, let me know.

Preliminary standings for round 5

Rank. Player: score - SP:
1. square_two: 26 - 3,7
2. Wrath of Pie: 24 - 3,4
3. Tylert: 18 - 2,6
3. Unlif3: 18 - 2,6
3. GoblinSmashmaster: 18 - 2,6
6. H: 16 - 2,3
7. Asthereal (TO): 10 - 1,4
8. FTW: 4 - 0,6

This would mean Unlif3 takes the lead, and Wrath enters the top-3.

NOTE: This was a rather complicated round. Please check your matches and scores with the latest analysis.
If anything is wrong, please let me know. You cwill find the most recent scores here: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets...it?usp=sharing

Round 6 of 4CB Season 4, The Block Tour - part 2, has started. For this round we shall play Modern Core "block" (Magic Origins, Core Set 2019, Core Set 2020)![/B]

I have PM'ed myself my deck for round 6, so you can start sending me your decks.

DEADLINE: Wednesday the 13th of November, at 11:00AM Central European Time.
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