All B/R update speculation.

Progenitus was bad in Show and Tell because of the interactions with Sneak Attack.
Look at this way:
Progenitus+Sneak Attack=10 Damage
Progenitus+Show and Tell=two turns left for opponent

Emrakul+Sneak Attack=board wipe & 15 Damage
Emrakul+Show and Tell=one turn left for opponent

Griselbrand+Sneak Attack=draw 7-14 cards, possibly find Emrakul and win or just win with card advantage. Typically ignore Karakas here with mad card advantage.
Griselbrand+Show and Tell= three turns left for opponent, but essentially game over with mad card advantage.

You see before Griselbrand, 1 out of 4 combinations Sneak N Show had just equaled ten damage. 10 damage from a combo deck isn't exactly ideal. So 25% of the games Sneak N Show used to play weren't optimal.

I know a lot of people already knew this, but I felt I had to point this out for certain people who have said Progenitus was stronger than Griselbrand in Sneak N Show.

Also, quite a few people noticed Griselbrand was AR's best card. Only dragonfireheart was convinced Temporal Mastery was broken.

I think it's just a matter of clocks.
Progenitus is an unaswerable, 3-turn clocks. Griselbargain is not unanswerable, but it's very close to and it's a 1-turn clock. Emrakul, for comparison, need two turns to win and is slightly more answerable (karakas, maze, creatures that tap or kill and Emrakul does nothing, while u still draw 7 with Grizz). Prog is good, but it's almost never a problem when it come down and u play an aggressive deck. It can't even block fliers. Blade control can also race it easily with Batterskull. Honestly, it's funny but a 10/10 pro everything isn't that amazing when almost all decks in the format can race it. Especially if it come off a SnT (with batterskull and KotR being widely played) and not a NO.

EDIT: also yeah, Progenitus is way worse with Sneak.

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Originally Posted by joemauer

Also, quite a few people noticed Griselbrand was AR's best card.

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There was some notice of that, but I (personally) don't recall seeing much of it until later on.

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Only dragonfireheart was convinced Temporal Mastery was broken.

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Enh, he was the most prominent supporter of that claim, but he wasn't the only one.

Regardless. I don't think Griselbrand or Show and Tell will be banned this time around. It's not putting up particularly amazing results so far, and I think Wizards might want to wait until September to really make a decision on that. I doubt they'd make a move as bold as banning Brainstorm so close to really big Legacy events (if they're ever planning to at all). We might see some cards unbanned, but I don't think there will be bans in Legacy this month.

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Originally Posted by Lord Seth

Regardless. I don't think Griselbrand or Show and Tell will be banned this time around. It's not putting up particularly amazing results so far, and I think Wizards might want to wait until September to really make a decision on that. I doubt they'd make a move as bold as banning Brainstorm so close to really big Legacy events (if they're ever planning to at all). We might see some cards unbanned, but I don't think there will be bans in Legacy this month.

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-That didn't stop them from banning Mystical Tutor.

About 12 hours away from the announcement, I'm still sticking with a guesstimation of 1 card getting axed in standard, nothing getting axed in type 1.5, and the possibility of a couple cards coming off the banned list for type 1.5.

My best guess is:
No changes in standard
No changes in Legacy


My hope is:
No changes in standard
Brainstorm banned in Legacy.

My fear is:
Snapcaster Banned in Standard
Show and Tell Banned in Legacy
Scion of the Ur-Dragon banned in commander (My oldest and most awesome commander deck)

Don't we usually get the banner by this point if they're banning something (I'm remember the survival and intangible virtue banners from the past)? Or do they wait until closer to midnight EST?

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Originally Posted by Honoluluicecaps

Don't we usually get the banner by this point if they're banning something (I'm remember the survival and intangible virtue banners from the past)? Or do they wait until closer to midnight EST?

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WotC might be putting a tighter control over the announcement these days. We'll know in about 12 hours when they post the article. (they could very well be not including a relevant picture in the teaser)

i thought the reason we got the banner early last time was because it accidently got leaked online . i dont really think we should be expecting it.

The "banner" will probably appear at 9 pm pacific time / midnight eastern time.

Where does this "banner" or announcement first appear? Link to page?

Is 11 more hours really too much time for you people to wait? No, let's hack the website for info!!!

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Originally Posted by Star|Scream

Is 11 more hours really too much time for you people to wait? No, let's hack the website for info!!!

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Sounds like a good idea...
I want to know what get's the axe, if anything does. I can wait for a little longer, but I'm excited to see if anything gets unbanned. Maybe we can bring up some new archetype(s) and awesome intereactions or some of us have to take a deep breath and pick up another Deck since some of the existing decks' key cards got banned. It's just pure excitement for me. That's my personal reason and excuse for being nervous.

I think nothing is banworthy at the moment as legacy is concerned. Dunno about Standard - not playing it. I still predict something is coming of the list, but I can not point my finger on it - just a feeling.

Grabbed my 4th Korean Earthcraft just in case.

Instead of doing some cyber attacks on the military, get foreign powers to go after Wizards. We'll tell them it's a new arm of the military that uses Magic.

-Matt

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Originally Posted by Star|Scream

Is 11 more hours really too much time for you people to wait? No, let's hack the website for info!!!

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Believe it or not, there is a lot of money involved for dealers and stores.

Whoever gets the information first can dump the soon-to-be banned in regular prices or can buyout the soon-to-be unbanned for low prices.

Any last-second predictions?

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Originally Posted by caiomarcos

Whoever gets the information first can dump the soon-to-be banned in regular prices or can buyout the soon-to-be unbanned for low prices.

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And this is why we can't have nice things.

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Originally Posted by Hollywood

Any last-second predictions?

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I think they will unban Bargain. Or ban Grieselbrand. Just in case, I'm ready!

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-7...0/IMG_1715.jpg

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Originally Posted by sdematt

Instead of doing some cyber attacks on the military, get foreign powers to go after Wizards. We'll tell them it's a new arm of the military that uses Magic.

-Matt

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Sigged

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Originally Posted by Hollywood

Any last-second predictions?

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No bans tonight.

Maybe in three months there will be a ban on SnT and/or a reban of Entomb. Wizards has shown they prefer to ban enablers to banning the proximate troublemakers, and Griselly Bear would be fair in this format without good ways to cheat him into play.

There is an extremely small but non-zero chance Wizards decides to upend the format and bans Brainstorm. However, I strongly suspect they see it as a format pillar and thus won't do anything with it.

It was pointed out to me that the link in my signature is obsolete. I contend that until December, it's still live.

Brainstorm banned tonite?

I have playsets of 20 cards on Legacy's banned list, so I'm pretty prepared for anything. Although that includes cards they'd never take off like Tinker and Wheel, and Vintage staples like Drain, Oath, and Bazaar. I'm REALLY hoping to be able to play with Mind Twist next month.

#freemindtwist

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Originally Posted by Aggro_zombies

No bans tonight.

Maybe in three months there will be a ban on SnT and/or a reban of Entomb. Wizards has shown they prefer to ban enablers to banning the proximate troublemakers, and Griselly Bear would be fair in this format without good ways to cheat him into play.

There is an extremely small but non-zero chance Wizards decides to upend the format and bans Brainstorm. However, I strongly suspect they see it as a format pillar and thus won't do anything with it.

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Entomb won't be banned. 1. it just came back. 2. to combo off to a griselbrand, you need to dump creature into the gy then find another card to reanimate him. 3 cards in total.

Show and tell only needs 2 cards.

If anything, show and tell will be the first to go if anything. But i don't think anything will happen today.

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Originally Posted by caiomarcos

I think they will unban Bargain. Or ban Grieselbrand. Just in case, I'm ready!

https://lh3.googleusercontent.com/-7...0/IMG_1715.jpg

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Seems optimistic, but I have a set too. Just in case!

Prediction:
Show and Tell and/or Griselbrand will be banned. Tough to say which one.

Something will be unbanned to throw us a bone. Something like Mind Twist and/or Land Tax.

My predictions:

Griselbrand - Banned

Earthcraft - Unbanned
Mind Twist - Unbanned

While Show and Tell might prove even more abusive in the future, I think the four or so archetypes that rely on it bring more to the meta than detract from it.

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Originally Posted by Honoluluicecaps

My predictions:

Griselbrand - Banned

Earthcraft - Unbanned
Mind Twist - Unbanned

While Show and Tell might prove even more abusive in the future, I think the four or so archetypes that rely on it bring more to the meta than detract from it.

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+1

and flash or burning wish unbanned in vintage

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Originally Posted by Honoluluicecaps

My predictions:

Griselbrand - Banned

Earthcraft - Unbanned
Mind Twist - Unbanned

While Show and Tell might prove even more abusive in the future, I think the four or so archetypes that rely on it bring more to the meta than detract from it.

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There were a bunch of different Survival decks, including Bant, RGBSA, Tradewind, Junk, and UGx Madness, and that didn't stop that card from getting the axe.

Wizards has shown it prefers to ban enablers since, once an enabler has shown itself to be too strong with the right conditions, it's only a matter of time before new printings meet those conditions again. There are fewer necessary long-term bans if you kill the enablers.

That said, I honestly don't expect action until the fall. They didn't ban Survival right away either, even though they had an opportunity to do so during the fall B&R update.

I really hope show and tell doesn't get banned.

It means we are back to the old boring RUG, Mav, UW stoneblade meta.

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Originally Posted by Avatar of Shadow

I really hope show and tell doesn't get banned.

It means we are back to the old boring RUG, Mav, UW stoneblade meta.

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I don't believe a banning reverts the metagame or the state of the format to where it was before the onset or predominance of said banned card.

Even if it does there's nothing boringier than S&T decks.

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Originally Posted by caiomarcos

I don't believe a banning reverts the metagame or the state of the format to where it was before the onset or predominance of said banned card.

Even if it does there's nothing boringier than S&T decks.

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Its more about diversity.

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Originally Posted by Avatar of Shadow

I really hope show and tell doesn't get banned.

It means we are back to the old boring RUG, Mav, UW stoneblade meta.

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Agreed.

This banning at this current time would revert the meta to pre Grisel

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Originally Posted by Avatar of Shadow

Its more about diversity.

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A stable metagame is better for diversity because it gives defined targets to Tier Two strategies. This is especially important in Legacy because the Tier One decks also tend to be the most inherently powerful decks, both in terms of consistency and their ability to weather randomness in the opening rounds.

There were plenty of decks that were viable in the Maverick/RUG/Stoneblade era, even if they didn't put up results as consistently. There are certainly a broader range of viable decks then than there are now that Griselly Bear-based combo decks are on the rise.

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Originally Posted by caiomarcos

Even if it does there's nothing boringier than S&T decks.

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I don't know about that. You finish the match in 20 min tops, then have 30 min to find a pub, or smoke a bowl, or shark some trades. Shit, I'm bringing a pillow with me to the Grand Prix so I can nap in between my matches. /grin/

While I'd unexceptionally support the ban of Griselbrand and Show and Tell (and to a further extent even Delver of Secrets, because as long this creatures stays legal, one will have hard time justifying playing a nonblue aggressive deck), I don't think that something will be banned this time simply because there hasn't been enough time to evaluate the effective implications on the format. However, It's obvious that Griselbrand is unsustainable in the format and that Show and Tell will have to be banned at a time so i expect seeing a ban in September, which is a pity.

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Originally Posted by caiomarcos

Even if it does there's nothing boringier than S&T decks.

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Yeah, watching control mirrors is so much fun.

What do you prefer?
a) Someone hitting a nail on the head putting it directly into the wood
b) Someone hitting all around the nail and eventually, after five hundred tries, reaching the goal

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Originally Posted by H3llsp4wn

Yeah, watching control mirrors is so much fun.

What do you prefer?
a) Someone hitting a nail on the head putting it directly into the wood
b) Someone hitting all around the nail and eventually, after five hundred tries, reaching the goal

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b, as it requires much more skill to hit the nail in the end...

BAN: Show and Tell
UNBAN: Nothing

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Originally Posted by Philipp802

b, as it requires much more skill to hit the nail in the end...

BAN: Show and Tell
UNBAN: Nothing

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Landdrop, Brainstorm, more Landdrops, Sword, Jace. SUPER INTENSE! :>

You just want to see SnT banned because you sold your Sneak Show. Case closed.

#freemindtwist