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This deck can't run spells that cost less than 6.Quote:
Originally Posted by d3spam
And Emrakul is just too good due to the fact that it is not counterable, it gives you an extra turn (acting de facto as an extra copy of wanderer) and removing any chance they can do anything if they ever survive the attack.
Apologies for not being clearer. I was not suggesting that you should run Blood Sun, but post #41 said that they run 2 pithing needles in the SB for decks that can recur wasteland. Given that since then they seem to have moved away from needles, I assume they ended up not being good enough. My point is, Blood Sun might be better than Needle for this purpose. If needle was worth testing, maybe also Blood Sun is. With that said, needle seems bad to me, and a card that's better than a bad card might still just be a bad card.Quote:
Originally Posted by Cave
As for the emrakul: I was not suggesting to run the Marine over Emrakul. I was trying to say, if you already are on the fence about aeve vs force+surgical decks, maybe running a weaker version of Aeve that also has upside in other matchups might be worth testing.
So against Force+Surgical decks, you'd bring in Mariner (the same as you would bring Aeve right now), and if they do have force+surgical, you still get an extra body + kill something of theirs which may or may not be good enough for those matchups. (also mariner could work in a jegantha build where you have access to another body from the companion zone)
Now this is cleary weaker than aeve, but here is the upside you get in return: In matchups where you bring in 2/3 Trickery + 3 Throes, you can also bring in 1 Mariner (and board out emrakul for that slot). Based on simulations it does not hurt the combo potential as much as a 4th throes would and gives you 1 more combo starter at 5mana (which can be relevant in a world of gemstone caverns). It does not beat mindbreak trap the same way emrakul does, and you don't get to shuffle your gy should trickery mill it, but if it resolves, it shoots your opponent for 20+ to the face, pretty much no matter at which point of the combo you hit it. You also get the liberty to run it alongside emrakul for a higher threat density but I did not run simulations for that scenario yet.
in a way, Mariner is probably a weaker version of the 4th throes as well as a weaker version of aeve, but those are 2 already questionable sb slots in 1. ...maybe freeing up sb slots is worth it. again, this was not the main argument of my post and just a side thought.
Something else that I realized after posting yesterday:
Most people who posted SB strategy here seem to board out non-lands for the trickery package. Based on my simulations that might be incorrect. Let me try to give an intuitive explanation why that might be the cast:
Let's first look at the base deck without the trickery package:
AT MOST, you get to resolve 8 copies of CT. In order to win on the spot, you need one of those to flip into either a Wanderer or Emrakul. The more cards you run that are not Wanderer/Emrakul, the less likely you are to succeed, even if you get to cast all CTs.
This means the more cascaders we run, the more likely we are to start a combo chain. However, there is a point of diminishing returns where having too many cascaders starts lowering your odds of presenting a win.
I ran simulations for 8 to 16 cascaders and 11 was the optimum (assuming 5 'I win' hits). If you want more cascaders, you might want to look at running as 6th I win button.
Now, if we board in 3 trickery 3 throes, we get 8 copies of CT + 3 copies of trickery = 11 shots at wanderer/emrakul. this means we can afford to lower the odds of hitting a wincon for each individual roll to reach the same sweet spot.
Note that trickery can mill other copies of trickery/CT in which case you get less flips, but on average the number of shots at a wincon will be somewhere in the interval of [8, 11].
Again the question for the 'sweet spot' between max number of starters vs odds of turning a starter into a win arises.
To that end, I ran simulations that boarded out a varying number of lands/cascaders to see the effects. The simulations suggest that boarding out 1-2 cascaders is the sweet spot, meaning the rest of the cards you are supposed to board out are lands!
Ok, I got around to implementing a mulligain logic.
I'll add the exact rules on the bottom in case you are interested / have suggestions.
this has been running for 2 days. will start trickery simulations for the top configs over the next few days.
quick reminder: wr means percentage of games where emrakul and/or wanderer ended up being cast by turn 3.
the simulator always assumes 4 wanderer and 4 CT. the emrakuls are placeholders for any big 'I win' button that you run ontop of 4 wanderer.
number of cascaders referres to cmc=6.
I've ran this with 10^6 games first, and now with 10^7 games. the numbers only change very little (e.g., the best deck goes from 0.997616 to 0.9976351 after 10x games).
here's the results:
https://i.ibb.co/VS69CCt/wr.jpg
wr 0.9976351, 5 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9975394, 6 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9974991, 6 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9974563, 4 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9973862, 5 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9973488, 7 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9972219, 7 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9970799, 7 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9970562, 6 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9969484, 3 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9968969, 8 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9968531, 4 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9967543, 8 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9966897, 8 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9966318, 5 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9964613, 7 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9962403, 6 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9962338, 8 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9961585, 9 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.996015, 9 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9959897, 9 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9959027, 2 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9958404, 3 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.99567, 4 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9954916, 9 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9954793, 7 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9954083, 5 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9953095, 8 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9950104, 10 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9949377, 6 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9948451, 10 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9947935, 10 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9946078, 9 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9942267, 10 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9940447, 7 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9940188, 8 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9937818, 3 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9937542, 4 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9937437, 2 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9937069, 1 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9936198, 5 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9932072, 6 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9931775, 9 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9931288, 10 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9921604, 8 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9920872, 7 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9913948, 10 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9913303, 5 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9912611, 4 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9911377, 9 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.990915, 6 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9908729, 3 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9904435, 2 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9898025, 1 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.989633, 8 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9895658, 7 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9889624, 0 emrakul, 8 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9889431, 10 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9883643, 5 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9883142, 9 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9880604, 6 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9879898, 4 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9870877, 3 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.985771, 2 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9854407, 10 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9848673, 5 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9840764, 4 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.984014, 1 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.982352, 3 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9814257, 0 emrakul, 9 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9799531, 2 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9794385, 4 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9768043, 3 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9764657, 1 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9730174, 2 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9712031, 0 emrakul, 10 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9706404, 3 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.967367, 1 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9651062, 2 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9585142, 0 emrakul, 11 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9570413, 1 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9564075, 2 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9455524, 1 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9439158, 0 emrakul, 12 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9334481, 1 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9283588, 0 emrakul, 13 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.9115256, 0 emrakul, 14 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
wr 0.8945183, 0 emrakul, 15 cascaders, False, trickery, over 10000000 games
I encourage you to not jump to conclusions from this yet!
There are some obvious insights to which configurations the simulator preferres to reach a win state:
as expected adding proper mulligains increases the overall winrate compared to my previous post.
It also reduces the demand for having a starter in your initial opening hand drastically (more than I anticipated tbh).
The result is that having fewer starters becomes favorable (at least in the context of this win criterion).
with fewer starters, you also need fewer wincons.
HOWEVER:
Note that this does not take into account opposing interaction. The mulligain logic prefers keeping a second starter if possible, but the winrate does not reflect any form of interaction!
While a high number of wincons seems preferably here, I would like to draw your attention to how little the wr actually improves with more cards dedicated to winning after you got off the ground.
A higher top end might help in matchups where you don't want to demo your opponent into a stax piece, but it also means less room for utility lands like boseiju, otawara, gemstone cavern and what ever else you might be packing (maybe ipnu rivulet to mess with doomsday, or scavenger grounds to mess with reanimator).
Think it would be too early to derive the optimal build from this, but I hope this can help with more datadriven deckbuilding.
Ive seen others have mentioned running simulations too. Let me know if this is in conflict with your results, please!
Simulator details:
the simulator keeps any opening hand that has a starter + enough lands.
'starter' means either Throes, CT, or a Cascader with cmc=6
the following criteria are checked to find cards to mull:
1) 2+ CT => mull CT
2) 1+ Trickery => mull Trickery
3) 1+ CT > 1 and 1+ other starter => mull CT
4) 1+ starter and 1+ wanderer => mull wanderer
5) 2+ wanderer => mull wanderer
6) 1+ emrakul => mull emrakul # this basically assumes wanderer is more important than emrakul for mindbreak protection
7) (2+ lands and Throes) or (3+ lands and CT/cmc6) => mull land
8) in case of multiple starters, first mull cmc6, then CT, then throes ...again assuming that if we board in Throes, it should be prioritized
9) in case of multiple copies of a specific starter => mull those
10) mull land
11) mull random
PunishingWaterfalls played a version of the list here: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FWRolbb_j9g
Haven't checked in on the thread in a while but a brief glance makes it look like someone here is doing a better job with the numbers than I ever did so I'll have to go catch up if people have improved the core of the deck.
Speaking of potentially improving the deck, congrats to Mark and Mattias for the double Top 8's at the most recent Bazaar of Boxes (a repeat for Mark) and the Aren for the 13 place finish at NRG.
Also, importantly (and why I just checked in) ... I believe Creative Technique hits MTGO today!
(rereads d3's analysis over and over again)
Fantastic stuff; I'm taking notes.
... and the deck has now won the Legacy Challenge: https://twitter.com/_SeanGoddard_/st...71159247986688
Some interactions I missed with Blood sun the first time around:
it kills saga right away, as the land keeps it's saga type, but looses all it's chapters. this means the #chapters = 0, and sagas die when the number of chapter-counters >= #chapters.
this should make it harder for lands decks to get boseiju into their hand as they can't get expedition map from a saga.
however it also makes lands enter without counters, so if they have boseiju already, any crop rotation can blow you out.
e.g., vs lands: the opponent can play depths, it comes in without counters, then boseiju blood sun to get a free 20/20.
also it means our counter lands do nothing post blood sun, so make sure you sequence your lands accordingly.
it kinda buys less time than I thought and also accelerates us less than I would like. might still be worth testing, but maybe just having more red sol lands is better.
Is Mind's Desire worth considering or too high of whiff potential hitting lands?
I don't think this deck is the place for Mind's Desire. Even storm of like 4-5 could realistically whiff on lands. The core is powerful enough to win just as is.Quote:
Originally Posted by inked
Mind's Desire doesn't do anything to shore up existing problems or make the deck any faster.
Someone played it in a shell with mb trickery + CT, more threats and the 3cmc cascaders.Quote:
Originally Posted by inked
https://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=46611&d=544464&f=LE
Is this better? Probably not as all of the sudden you are weak to force again. Hardcasting CT is harder and you don't get to retrace your t2 cascade spell.
Upside is instant speed VO, however minds desire does not work on opponents turns.. At least you get more T2 wins against non force decks.
If I had to make changes, I'd work in 4 hickory woodlots as well as noise Marins over the omniscience/tendrils as it does the same while not bricking your streams. They also work as combo starters.
Ultimatum can play a choice of apex/CT/desire to keep chaining. Make sure you cast the other spell before desire for an extra storm count.
Just saw thrabenU play a version of this deck.
SB Karakas is probably something we should be running in some numbers for thalia / reanimator / sneak show, possibly a MB card in the right meta.
This is the Thraben U video.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=i8ThLFcjfqo
He played a pretty standard build with 40+ lands, the 6 cmc cascaders, and the ThroesBalt plan in the SB (3 Throes, 2 Tibalt).
Looks like some new spice is LotR set:
**Call Forth the Tempest** `{5}{R}{R}{R}`
Sorcery (R)
> Cascade, cascade.
> ~ deals damage to each creature your opponents control equal to the total mana value of other spells you've cast this turn.
Hi, my name is Eltinho and I have been a long time Red Prison player and more recently RW Initiative player as well.
Since I had the Sol Lands, I decided to test my luck playing Creative Technique for a change. Since it was on paper, I went with Let the Galaxy Burn.
This is the list I run on a 16 player LGS tournament into a 2-2 score:
4 Creative Technique
4 Let the Galaxy Burn
4 Maelstrom Wanderer
4 Boarding Party
2 Aurora Phoenix
2 Sweet-gum Recluse
1 Apex Devastator
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
2 Otawara, Soaring City
3 Boseiju, Who Endures
3 Sulfur Vent
4 Dwarven Ruins
4 Tinder Farm
4 Hickory Woodlot
4 Sandstone Needle
4 Saprazzan Skerry
2 Crystal Vein
4 Ancient Tomb
4 City of Traitors
Sideboard
1 Boseiju, Who Endures
2 Otawara, Soaring City
2 Karakas
2 Tibalt’s Trickery
4 Pyrokinesis
4 Throes of Chaos
List was geared into having 5R mana on 3 (hence the Sulfur Vents). After the tournament, I felt like Karakas overperformed (single-handedly won me a match vs Sneak n Show) but Otawara felt a little lackluster and it got me thinking about getting a bit greedier, going mainly RG and having a more consistent 6 mana plan on turn 3 (one of my losses was to Goblins, comboed on 3 by them on the draw, mulled to 5 and getting all the wrong mana, despite pyrokinesing them). Other loss was to UB scam where they Surgicaled my CT and with only 2 Trickery, I was left without outs. Third Trickery would win that game.
So I thought about a list like this:
4 Creative Technique
4 Let the Galaxy Burn
4 Maelstrom Wanderer
4 Boarding Party
2 Aurora Phoenix
2 Sweet-gum Recluse
1 Apex Devastator
1 Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
1 Mountain
1 Havenwood Battleground
4 Boseiju, Who Endures
4 Sulfur Vent
4 Dwarven Ruins
4 Tinder Farm
4 Hickory Woodlot
4 Sandstone Needle
4 Crystal Vein
4 Ancient Tomb
4 City of Traitors
Sideboard
2 undefined slots
2 Karakas
3 Tibalt’s Trickery
4 Pyrokinesis
4 Throes of Chaos
https://www.magicspoiler.com/mtg-spo...idden-volcano/
There is a full cycle with the same ability that has been spoiled, but the Red one seems most relevant for the time being. I assume this is too slow as you need this plus 3 more lands to go off, but it is 4 more "red" cascade spells. I have no idea what you would cut for this, either. Thoughts?
Edit: For some reason I thought it hit 5s, not 4s. Never mind. Maybe with a more all in Throes of Chaos build.
There's a 7 drop revealed that will discovery for 10.
If you hit something less than 10 you get treasures equal to the difference.
https://mythicspoiler.com/lci/cards/...motherlode.jpg
Since discover only happens upon resolution, doesn’t that destroy the core idea of the deck. The whole point is multiple cast triggers so they can’t counter everything.
It might work for the ThroesBalt version, but for the main build it seems strictly worse than Boarding Party and other 6-mana cascaders.
Boarding Party - 100% chance of hitting Creative Technique. FoW can't stop all of it. Costs 6 mana (turn 3). Doubles as wincon that turns sideways.
Mother Lode - Some chance of missing. FoW can stop all of it. Costs 7 mana (turn 4). Can't turn sideways without getting rules violation.
The treasures are trivial. If your big spell resolves, you don't really need more mana. You need mana when stuff isn't resolving.
https://cards.scryfall.io/large/fron...jpg?1698962820
This could take the place of Pyrokinesis and also be played in the maindeck, because if you flip it with Creative Tecnique it usually doesn't stop the combo.