Hey guys,
As much as choosing a good list, knowing and understanding correct lines of play is critical to success with CBtop. Since the last several pages have been mostly just lists, I wanted to pose a couple of scenarios to the CBtop community to gather feedback on what people would do once they're actually forced to use the cards they spend so much time choosing.
Depending on how they're received, I'd be willing to continue posting scenarios (most of them real, from games I've played) and encourage others to do the same. With such a decision-heavy deck, it's not uncommon to have multiple valid lines of play that all lead to game losses and a single, possibly unintuitive play that gives you the win. I personally learn much more from watching and listening to others play real than I do from reading lists with unusual choices explained.
Situation 1- It's a pure theory question, but one I'm not sure I know the answer to.
Your opening hand is Volcanic Island, Tropical Island, Misty Rainforest, Tarmogoyf, Counterbalance, Sensei's Divining Top, Brainstorm (you keep), versus an unknown opponent G1 on the play.
The question is what are your t1, t2 plays? Obviously if your opponent has a relevant t1 play (wasteland, Duress, etc.) it will change what you do. The point is to understand the theoretically correct opening given multiple relevant options and no prior information on your opponent.
In my opinion, this is one of the most decision-heavy hands you can draw and as long as you've got CB, top, Brainstorm, exactly 1 fetchland and some other cards, the exact contents aren't too relevant. What I mean is, this hand is pretty common and requires more thought than I think a lot of CBtop players realize.
The easiest play would be Volcanic, top, go. Tropical Island is never correct because you don't know if they run/ have Wastelands in their deck/ hand. Most people who do will blindly waste your first land, which itself is usually a mistake against an opponent who keeps their 7, but you don't want to be wasted off relevant (G) mana (for the goyf in hand) and the fetch would be better saved for either a basic or if you need to open another color (like if you draw Swords). T1 top is obviously a strong play, but there's another one that I think is almost always correct.
Instead, you could play Rainforest, go. At their EOT, you'll crack the fetch (probably for a basic Island or Tundra, assuming their first turn was innocuous) and play Brainstorm. The reason you played the fetch was to dodge that t1 Wasteland. It's irrelevant what Brainstorm finds, you'll put back Tarmogoyf first and any other card on top. You'll draw the top card during your turn, putting goyf on top. T2 your play is Volcanic, Counterbalance, go. This leaves you in an extremely strong position; it's the only play that guarantees wasteproof t2 CB, even encouraging your opponent to sandbag it if they've got it. You also guarantee countering their 2-drop if they try it (goyf on top), giving you the opportunity to play Top next turn with mana up. Wasting a shuffle effect kind of sucks, but you don't want to shuffle anyway once you've set up CB and the classic t1 Top, t2 CB (assuming you kept your land) still forces you to blindflip. This can be relevant if their play is Pridemage, Confidant, Survival, or some other 2-drop you can't afford to resolve.
I'm sure there are other valid t1, t2 plays from this hand (though I don't think any includes a t2 goyf, including an opponent's t1 Mountain, Lackey, go). I'd be especially interested to hear people's thoughts on this hand, since it's probably the one I think about the most without ever having an especially good answer to.
Situation 2- Came up for me today during the Legacy side event at WizCon.
You're in G1 against Merfolk. His board is 2 Islands, Mutavault, Vial @2, Tarmogoyf, Lord of Atlantis. He has 4 cards in hand and 2 Cursecatcher and Daze in the 'yard. Your board is Counterbalance, Top, Tarmogoyf and 4 lands (one of each colored dual + Island). Your hand is Jace, Fire/Ice and Brainstorm, with Counterbalance, Fire/Ice and some fetchlands in the 'yard. He passes the turn and your EOT top finds Force of Will, Vendilion Clique, Counterspell.
The question is, beginning with ordering them correctly and continuing through your upcoming turn, what do you do?
Given I didn't have time to poll the Source, this was my decision: order them (from top to bottom) Counterspell, Clique, Force. I drew into CS during my turn (Clique on top) and passed. During his turn he attempted Merrow Reejerey, which was countered revealing Clique. EOT I spun top, seeing a Tarn 3rd down. I put it on top, Force second and Clique on bottom. During my turn I played the Tarn, attempted Jace (resolved) and fatesealed for the win.
The reasoning behind CS on top (after first spin) was because I knew I couldn't draw a 5th land and didn't want to run Jace into Daze. I assumed any relevant 2-drop would be played through the Vial, so CB@3 vs. Reejerey was the play while I could still have Counterspell up for any must-counter. It also gave me mana for F/I, Counterspell or both, or one + EOT top. Putting FoW second (after Tarn) next turn gave me the option for protected Jace that would've needed double Force, triple Daze or Force+ double Daze to beat. In hindsight I think this was wrong because a Standstill during his previous turn (instead of Reejerey) would've been pretty bad and would've forced me to re-spin, then activate Top to stop it. Drawing Force may have been better, closing off 3-drops and 2-drops not done through Vial.
The difficulty with the hand was being presented with multiple valid lines of play in a fast-closing window. Choosing to play draw-go during a crucial turn, let me set up a protected Jace through multiple threats. LoA online with only Fire/Ice to stop it could get really bad really fast, especially if his hand has some gas. Since Fire/Ice, Clique and Jace all offer their own pros and cons, the choice wasn't necessarily clear-cut. Would you have played differently?

