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Belcher isn't exactly an archetype that cares about what it's going to top deck, if you don't have Leyline of Sanctity and/or Chancellor of the Annex in your SB then you're going to coin flip vs Jund. All that matters is that you're playing the most efficient card for the job at any moment in time, if you brick on your 8th card on the draw so be it - I think a 0 mana counter to Force of Will is worth it.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckjunt
Can I please get your list? Or at least you 15?
Your reasoning makes sense, I understand why you do it. The rest of my side becomes clunky it seems if I were to open with chancellor and any number of other sided cards. This is why I asked to see your list, you said the differences were in our 15. Have you tested these options or is it theoretical?
It's the core 52 cards with Pyretic Ritual and Chancellor of the Tangle and the 15 is 1 Empty the Warrens and 14 different disruption/protection slots - a mix of Pyroblast, Guttoral Response, Autumn's Veil, Xantid Swarm, Leyline of Sanctity and Chancellor of the Annex depending on the meta.Quote:
Originally Posted by Buckjunt
It's not theoretical, I've used the white disruption cards in Belcher for awhile to good effect, not preparing for discard in this metagame is just incredibly stupid, especially when preparing for discard is more effective than preparing for counterspells in terms of your disruption's cost efficiency.
This is what I am going to test out:
3 chancellor of the annex
1 empty the warrens
4 guttural response
4 leyline of sanctity
3 pyroblast
I am considering replacing the fourth seething song and the fourth chrome mox with 2 street wraith(or maybe cut a burning wish for the 3th street wraith)but I have not tested it or did any calculation, so what do you think?
I would never cut mox or burning wish, personally, but seething song is ok to Axe.
I was reading the last pages and i see that a main issu is discard. If it's why would you cut the cantrips?
I understand that you want to increase the consistency of your combo but if you get discarded properly you are in a complete topdeck mode. With gitaxian probe you get info about your opo cards at the time you make an effort to bring your win cond to ur hand. The same goes for morphose or street wraith. This apply for counter magic too!
The cantrips have always been terrible in terms of consistency, especially since Pyretic Ritual was printed and to a lesser extent Grim Monolith was unbanned. One of the problems with Belcher, or perhaps all Storm combo decks, is that the low cost of entry for the deck encourages arguably some of the worst deck builders and players to play it and then completely fuck up the MD for no good reason. Why would you want any uncertainty in your opening 7, especially for Manamorphose which forces you to gamble with 2 mana in the hopes that you'll cantrip into the last mana source you need to go off?Quote:
Originally Posted by GoldenCid
I can understand Gitaxian Probe if you don't like Grim Monolith or Chancellor of the Tangle, but that's assumming you can actually do anything with the information. Not playing Pyretic Ritual tho' is just an inconceivably bad judgement call, and I think Chancellor of the Tangle combined with Chrome Mox in your opening hand is one of the strongest natural draws this deck has despite being a shitty top deck. I think it may be the kind of card you want to gamble with in the MD game 1 and then SB out immediately if you win in order to avoid having a blank 8th card. Likewise I think Gitaxian Probe is kind of a pre SB card where it's not really great game 1 but gets a lot better game 2 when you SB in blasts.
What i simply say is that in a hand where you have: LG + SSG + LED + RoF + Pyretic + GP + BW is better than LG + SSG + LED + RoF + Grim Monolith + BW if BW gets discarded. Then you have an extra card next turn to hit (uncertaily, i know) one of the remaining winning conditions.Quote:
Originally Posted by Final Fortune
We can debate corner cases all day, of sample hands that are worse then others, but this proves nothing. The deck is incredibly redundant, and discard isn't even our main concern. It can be a huge hinderance, and it can lose you the game if you have terrible topdecks, this is why we board answers. The main deck needs to be consistent, and cantrips are anything but. Knowing you can get there or that you have to mull is far more crucial than gambling on a blind draw. The information does nothing for us. You slow roll to avoid the force as they set up board position and draw more answers. You have to make them stop you. You should always play as if they have it, use the minimum ramp required to get there, play your kill and hope for the best. If they have it, you will draw another and hopefully you haven't used your entire hand to get there. It is a glass cannon, but the first shot doesn't always shatter. I have seen multiple games where they use fow to answer and they have to pitch jace, counterbalance or another force to do so. That is amazing news for us. Just keep on trucking.
hey guys i was looking at my collection and i found 4 lion's eye diamond... i was wondering do i really need to buy the burning wishes to be competitive ? (sideboard plan)
Well, that depends on who you ask. I've run a Wish-less list and had good success with it. The Wish-less list has done decent at big events like SCG Opens here and there too. But thre are those who swear by the Wish builds, so ultimately it's up to you and your playstyle to decide.Quote:
Originally Posted by Tlbwars
I own wishes and still prefer the Wish-less list, FWIW.
Agreed. I run a wish build and I love it, but it is up to you. I say goldfish the he'll out of the deck and decide for yourself!
After a lot of testing, I have made my sideboard this for Cincinnati this weekend:
4 Chancellor of the Annex
1 Empty the Warrens
4 Guttural Response
4 Leyline of Sanctity
2 Pyroblast
I played Belcher at Edison and am a big fan of Leyline of Sanctity. They did not have any Chancellors of Annex, but I intend to pick up a play set pronto.
With all the discard around, Leyline is great, that it's out of Abrupt decay range too means it's not until turn 3 (M. Pulse, O-Ring) that it's most likely going to bite the dust, by which, we should have won/be winning.
Cheers,
it's also funny to play against burn- just because.
Anything but blue!Quote:
Originally Posted by ahg113
You guys are too concerned about discard, as opposed to Forces. To elucidate, I have prepared the following back-of-the-envelope calculation:
What are the odds that Thoughtseize will wreck your shit?
First, you need to lose the die roll: 50%
Then, your opponent needs to draw a thoughtseize: 40%
Then, you need to have a hand with exactly one win condition out of eleven in the deck: 40%
Then, you need to fail to draw a win condition when you draw for turn: 81%
.5*.4*.4*.8=.065-> A 6.5% chance of thoughtseize wrecking you.
Now, this is a simplified assessment. Your opponent could plausibly take a mana source, but that seems highly unlikely given the composition of belcher. Compensating for that are
a) The assumption that failing to topdeck a win condition on t1 is GG
b) The assumption that your opponent is going to actually lead with Thoughtseize, instead of Deathrite or whatever--totally dependant on your opponent's awareness of what you're playing.
By contrast, what are the odds of FOW wrecking your shit?
First, your opponent needs to draw a Force: 40%
Then, you need to have a win condition that's not ETW: 73%
.40*.73= a 29% chance
So you are far better off boarding against Force than you are against discard--especially when a timely force will cost you far moer resources than a Thoughtseize.
That's why I have ten sb cards for fow and 8 for thoughtseize. Also there is a 100% chance they know what we are playing game two. You also forgot to calculate the chances they have a blue card to pitch to fow.
No one is sacrificing SB space vs Force of Will in order to SB cards vs discard, it just so happens that Chancellor of the Annex is goog against Force of Will (on the play) and discard (on the draw) and that the SB cards vs discard are significantly more cost efficient than the SB cards vs Force of Will, which you have to pay mana for.Quote:
Originally Posted by Ozymandias
Also, you need to take into consideration that decks that play discard can play more than 4 copies of "Thoughtseize and co."
This. Chances that a single duress, inquisition or thoughtseize will stop us are minimal, but still existent. And as I said before, this is games 2 and 3. Most decks that run any of these in the main run additional in the side. This can be a huge issue if they are on the play. Leyline downright negates these while chancellor will hold them off at least for 1 turn so we have a chance to combo. As final said, they are free to use, and if need be, we can even throw chancellor under the mox. They are only sided in on the draw against targeted discard effects because we should be in a winning position by the time they become relevant if we are on the play, if we hadn't already won. Chancellor doubles as F.o.W. protection when we are on the play as well, so it is an added bonus.Quote:
Originally Posted by Final Fortune
Ok, I notice the primer for Belcher is, 2007, I have actual experience with this deck and I even ran it for a while, unless there is objection, I would like to take on the "project" that is making a new primer for Belcher, if it helps as an example, I recently had a lot of fun making the High Tide primer that is now being used, and you can use that as a reference to see the types of things I would note in a primer, I would make it very detailed, posts successful decklists, note the wishless belcher decks accordingly, card choices, note playstyle tricks like getting to 3 mana instead of 4 mana, then use a spirit guide to get the 4th mana so you can cast an empty the warrens against known opposing counterspells, where as if you are at 3 mana, then spend 1 to cast a ritual to get to 4, they might counter it keeping you at 2, then causing you to "fizzle" and you wasted more resources, etc etc etc, stuff like that.
It was also my "1st" legacy deck in that, I've had it since it was "2 land belcher" like 10 years ago.
-edit- I am almost done making the new Belcher thread, will be posting it sometime in the next few hours, -playing the deck- -history all the way to 2 land belcher- -successful decklists starting late 2009 with Belchers 1st appearance in a Legacy top 8 at a major event- -Maindeck cards- -Sideboard cards- -Price guide- -Links to Belcher related stuff- -and of course, a link to this thread both at the top & bottom of the main post.
-edit- http://www.mtgthesource.com/forums/s...r-Deck-Belcher submitted belcher/primer link. ^.^