Originally Posted by
4eak
LEDless is likely dead for the foreseeable future. From what I can tell, nobody has top 8'd a sizable (33+ person) tournament with LEDless in the past 4 months. Nobody seems to be playing it (or if they are playing it, they aren't doing well with it), and for good reason, LED Dredge is just plainly better (and I submit it is not simply because of the presence of Maverick).
I run 13 Dredgers in both LEDless and LED Dredge. I do not compromise on the chance to open with dredgers (alongside all the functions I seek) and the ability to effectively chain dredge.
LED can be tuned to have just as high (if not higher) a chance to open "mana source, discard outlet, dredger, draw." In fact, that is largely my goal in any mana'd version of the deck. We now have a critical mass of draw/discard spells, enough so that the best way to attain "mana source, discard outlet, dredge, draw" is by lowering the number of permanent discard outlets to play draw/discard spells (which pull double duty). LED Dredge is simply in a better position to take advantage of that critical mass of draw/discard spells. Further, LED Dredge can viably run more mana sources than LEDless in virtue of the fact that LED pulls double duty - and that also improves its consistency. I'm fine with 18 mana sources in my LED Dredge deck, but I would never go above 15 with LEDless.
16 lands is outright too many, even for those who desperately want to make Faithless Looting more effective in LEDless.
Consistency is largely based upon your opening hands (which is all you've talked about here), but given how many draw spells we can run at this point, your opening hand is not the only thing which matters to consistency. Being able to reliably play back to back draw spells in the first two turns often means that you have to consider that your hand + the top 2-4 cards of your library bears upon your consistency.
Consider this opening hand:
LED, CoB, CC, Looting, Study, Bridge, Ichorid.
That hand is a keeper. It isn't great, but it is certainly keepable. The reason this is keepable is because I can use my draw spells to find a dredger and still likely have gas left over to explode. Consistency requires more than merely considering the odds of opening with "mana source, discard outlet, dredger, draw."
Regardlesss, at this point, I believe that number of hands which are keepable for LED Dredge is greater than the number of hands which are keepable for LEDless.
peace,
4eak