A bit of an update, I ended up chickening out and going with 4c loam with a modified sideboard
3x thalia
1x Tabernacle
1x smallpox
1x maelstrom pulse
1x reverent silence
1x toxic deluge
1x dreadbore
1x devastating dreams
1x slaughter games
1x Life From the loam
1x Ravens crime (felt strong to wish for)
1x Green sun's zenith
1x Mindsparker ("red thalia")
so after all my efforts to improve my matchups against known decks, I avoid most of em
round 1 vs Miracles:
g1:
I have a hand that is something like dryad arbor, burning wish, mox, wasteland, wasteland etc.
My opponent is borrowing miracles and picked it up roughly yesterday. Playtesting last night (before I knew she would be playing here) has taught her to fetch for basics and play around the right stuff. She lands t1 top into t2 counterbalance. I'm forced to wish for reverent silence in turn 2 and she forces my silence, forces the play after that and starts floating 2s on top. I can't find a live spell, she can't find a win con. I beat down with dryad arbor. The game takes forever and she eventually kills me. I should have surrendered much earlier.
g2:
Time is called as we start, we get an extension for starting late or w.e. I keep a better hand, burning wish for Ravens crime and make her discard some 10ish cards over the course of the game. On turn 0 I find an abrupt decay for her RIP, waste my badlands and hit with knight, villiage and arbor for 8or9, then kill her on turn 2 to tie the game.
round 2 vs Hivemind:
G1. Small confession, I don't often play in tournaments (with time limits) so I play this game a little too fast. I keep something like mox, wasteland, GSZ, tranquil thicket, treetop villiage, loam. My opponent starts with volcanic island pass. I put him on not having enough mana to fight through wastelands and waste his volc he brainstormlocks himself in response. here I should have played a mox dropping village to GSZ for arbor to wasteland off of loam on t2 as well. He plays ancient tomb into grim monolith an complains about colored mana. I wastland lock him, land a knight and then a bob.
G2.
I go t1 bob into loam->waste, into Mindsparker. my opponent show&tells i have knight in case he has emrakul. he has hive mind and 2 pacts.
G3
I mill to 5 and keep a hand with thalia, thicket, forest, chalice and something not great. He has an early show n tell. I show thalia and he can't pact me that turn. I land a chalice on 0 and proceed to ride thalia to victory.
round 3 against TinFins
g1 I assume the guy is on DDFT because nothing has stopped him from losing with that deck for over a year now. I have a turn 1 teeg. he has a turn 1 shallow grave'd griselbrand 8+storm and a tendrills in hand. I make the mistake of not keeping up wasetland in case he fetched a non-basic and he brainstorms off Usea and has exact mana to throw an emrakul at me.
g2 I mill to 6 and keep based on maze of Ith thinking that maybe denying him 7 cards would be good enough to live a little rather than risk not getting a mox in my 5 card hand. he attacks with a griselbrand and an Emrakul and i fog griz. I'm at 5, he is at 3 and i play dryad arbor pass. he value tendrills me.
There is no round 4 because of some tiebreaker stuff.
conclusion1: don't play loam against these people unless you can sneak 8 moxen into your list somehow.
conclusion2: Mindsparker needs to see play in something.
conclusion3: time to move my burning wishes to TES for a bit :/

