I REALLY don't think you can afford to cut Xantid Swarm. 1 mana "I win" cards vs. decks that otherwise have a fair game against you are generally hard NOT to find room for.
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I REALLY don't think you can afford to cut Xantid Swarm. 1 mana "I win" cards vs. decks that otherwise have a fair game against you are generally hard NOT to find room for.
The only Tempo decks around these parts have Stifle. Also, it is not impossible for Merfolk to race Empty the Warrens when they get Reejery. Xantid is a beating for them though.
A resolved Xantid Swarm is basically impossible to beat for them, that's true. Also, they don't have the fastest clock of all time, so it's not too bad if you only resolve it on turn three on the play, on the draw it becomes way harder since you most likely won't be able to win via Ad Nauseam anymore plus they actually just might kill you by then, though this is pretty unlikely.
In my eyes it's important to find out whether they're more likely to deal with Empty The Warrens or with Xantid Swarm. The issue I see with Xantid Swarm is that it's basically protection that must be protected, at least by now, when they have eight hardcounters and eight softcounters. I'm definitely going to do some testing with both cards and perhaps even with a split.
Also, I don't really get your first sentence; would you like to explain? Thanks.
Thats just a comment on the LA metagame, where the EtW plan is terrible.
Yep, attacking for 2-3 turns isn't viable when you're dead to a slower combo deck.Quote:
Originally Posted by lorddotm
So, did some more testing today against countertop.
List:
3 top
4 counterbalance
4 fow
4 mental misstep
2 counterspell
3 firespout
4 goyf
2 clique
4 lavamancer
+ the usual stp, brainstorm, etc
He boarded 2 spell pierce, 2 reb
Same principle as last testing session against UGB tempo *****.
Results:
preside: TES 4 - Countertop 6
postside: TES 7 - Countertop 3
Comments:
1. preside is a coinflip. It really depends on their hand.
2. Empty the warrens from hand destroys them. Creating 10 goblins turn 1 is very easy with this build, usually without playing a blue spell (no reb), none of few 1cc spells (which can be played in the beginning of your chain, so even if they counter it, you'll just lose 1 card.)
3. postside first 4 games results: TES 4 - Countertop 0. Opponents won't realise until it's too late that your on a etw plan and act accordingly (ie preventing you from reaching 4 mana instead of waiting for the big spell)
4. Creating 10+ goblins on the play invalidates firespout. (happened at least 2 games where he had it in hand, but couldn't cast it in time) Of his 3 postsb wins, 1 involved a crazy top, cb, mm, fow, brainstorm, 2 land hand, the other 2 involved firespouting my tokens. He did firespout my tokens 4 times postsb, however since they already attacked him down to 10ish life 1 time mini tendrils, 1 time another 6 tokens from hand finished the deal.
I don't get the point about stifle invalidating etw. Tendrils requires storm too to win the game.
I agree the etw plan is just meh against merfolk, as they have a reliable way to race it if you don't cast it turn 1.
On cutting xantids:
I don't think this is a good idea. Xantid remains our number 1 against merfolk and certainly has its merits in the tempodeck matchup.
I believe we need the protection.
I'm advocating a very agressive approach against counterbalance and tempodecks, but I do believe we should try to do this as safe as possible. If I can chant them before I resolve my empty/Adn/Iggy/returns, I chant them. Therefore, I fail to see why stifle would be more devastating to the goblins than it is towards tendrils self?
Besides:
1. If you're on the play, they can't stifle a turn 1 attempt (happens quite a lot) Don't forget even just (6-)8 goblins get the job done against them turn 1 on the play.
2. If you're on the draw (and they didn't cast ponder or top) you changed the dynamic from 'having the force' to 'having the stifle'
We just can't allow them to develop. Even if you board to 12 protection spells, you'll lose to a resolved counterbalance (countertop) or 20ish counters + wasteland + hymn/confidant card advantage (tempodecks)
Stifle is good against Empty the Warrens because you usually don't go for too much protection when playing Empty from hand. This allows them to Stifle it very easily. Typically, 1 Chant is not enough to cold them, especially since they have Mental Misstep to just ignore it.
I'm not saying that your approach is incorrect, but be aware that Stifle is still a big game against it (but I think Stifle is going to leave for a little bit while Mental Misstep is as hyped as it is right now).
I still don't understand why people are dodging Mental Misstep in any way different than Force of Will...
If it's 3Top-Counterbalance with Mental Misstep, you should already have an advantage over 4Top-Counterbalance like an Adam Prosak CTJace list (in my opinion one of the hardest pure control CT lists to beat because of MD Spell Snare), because it's stupid not to run 4of.
Without proactively stripping counterbalance (say more thoughtseize or inquisition of kozilek, perhaps) it's tough to win with or without Mental Misstep. Essentially, all your opponent needs to be able to do is hold the counter or, better yet, stifle and be able to count. Dazing or piercing a Petal, Dark Rit, or Chome Mox (almost worse would be stifling the imprint on Mox...ugh) would be embarrassing when your goal is to get around an inferior counter by getting to 4, you reward the bad general decision.
A turn 1 Xantid Swarm against Counterbalance is likely going to be enough to get you to a decent storm count and 4 mana before they have access to 0,1,2,3, and 4 near the top of their library and a way to kill you. Firespout, Pyroclasm, Caltrops (yeah, I know), Moat, Propaganda, etc. all stop the ETW plan. It's interesting, because ETW is a good plan against CT, but sometimes you can just win.
If you do have 3 ETW in the board to bring in, I don't think you can run Ad Nauseam profitably anymore, due to the higher density of 4s. CT Goyf puts a decent enough clock on many times that a stifled fetch can be enough to lose.
Just my 2 cents.
I fully agree: stifle is troublesome for this approach. However, they have a 40% chance to have it in their opening 7, 50% they are on the draw => 20% chance of them having it on my T1 attempt. If they are on the play and didn't tap out, it's a liability, but it doesn't have to be devastating to your hand.Quote:
Originally Posted by lorddotm
Etw MD allows us to play it reliably from hand (ie not needing burning wish and led mana (most of the time) to cast it), preserving part of our hand and allowing for another combo attempt (etw/tendrils) soon.
The fundamental change MM brings to our interaction with tempo decks, in my opinion, is that we can't 'wait and see' any longer against them.
When playing against countertop you allways feared the moment when they tapped UU en cast cb. MM forces us to play against tempodecks like we did against counterbalance: win before it lands -> win before they build a grip with that many relevant* counters, we just can't get through it.
*: MM + fow gives them 8 ways to answer our 4 chants. And even if we get to 2-3 chants, their wastelands/stifle can stop us from getting enough W mana.
PS: Them playing bob forces us to win earlier too in my opinion. When playing against UGB tempo *****, I don't think I won a single game if he sticked a bob more than 2 turns.
1. I agree not playing 4 top in a countertopdeck is a mistake. MB etw invalidates spell snare as you don't need to resolve a 2cc spell for your etw.Quote:
Originally Posted by Andy_V
2. Proactively stripping counterbalance from their hand. I never liked this approach.
- they don't have balance in hand (well, not that bad for us :rolleyes:), but doesn't prevent them from topdecking it ftw.
- they have balance and brainstorm it away (faced this sequence too many times) Also note, that this play allows them to immediately have a 'good casting' cost on top even if they tap out turn 2 to play counterbalance.
- they have counterbalance and a counter (fow, MM): they just counter the discard spell and proceed to kill us.
- they have 2 counterbalances in hand and just smile a my discard spell
=> The way I see it, discard only really shines in the situation where they have 1 counterbalance in hand, 0 brainstorm, 0 fow and 0 mm. Mediocre to say the least.
Countering our spell chain is a pain, but this applies to every combo attempt we make. I understand your reasoning completely, but I don't see a better solution for this problem than going for it before they sculpt their hand.
Besides, I think we shouldn't underestimate the surprise effect of this plan. People expect every chain to end with Adn/tutor/wish into kill spell and wait accordingly with their counters hoping for the blowout.
For example, you have a MM or fow in your opening grip.
Opponent leads with underground sea, dark ritual.
Do you counter the ritual? I think most people expect this sequence will be followed by some other spells into a key spell to counter.
Ritual resolves, lotus petal, lotus petal, empty the warrens from hand (hey wait, I can't use my mm anymore)
3. I didn't like xantid against counterbalance decks. They generally only have 4 fow and 3/4 spell snare or daze as countersuite. (ie only 4 ways to stop chant/duress) Duress has the added benefit of grabbing counterbalance if you're lucky. MM doubled their answers to chant and makes xantid necessary against them.
I think you look at their balance the wrong way: they don't need to have a 0,1,2,3 on top to kill us. They just need 0 and 1 to stop us 99% of the time. Their deck is build that way, that once they untap with balance in play, they will have a 0 and 1 floating. This way you don't really have much time to develop your hand.
4. Fully agree on this one. If we get to late game and etw loses its power, we still have tutor chains/iggy loop to kill them without tapping tokens sideways.
CT goyf doesn't play stifle, I think you meant tempodecks. Stifling our fetch indeed is troublesome sometimes (but the only answer we have to this is playing without fetchlands), other times I let them stifle my first land to draw a stifle and my second turn involves creating some goblins.
Are people really this bad? You see them lead with Underground Sea -> Dark Rit, and you DON'T Misstep the Dark Rit? Really? What's more important than that Dark Rit this turn?Quote:
Originally Posted by Diprivan
Short answer: Yes
Long answer: People expect every chain to end with Adn/tutor/wish into kill spell and wait accordingly with their counters hoping for the blowout.
If they MM the first ritual effect, they face another attempt next turn and another turn 3 etc.
If I open with volcanic island, rite of flame. Do you counter the rite of flame?
If you don't, you open yourself to 8-10 goblins turn 1
If you do, your MM will not buy you much time when you try to counter every chant/duress/dark ritual/rite of flame I play.
Short answer:Quote:
Originally Posted by Diprivan
"People expect every chain to end with Adn/tutor/wish into kill spell and wait accordingly with their counters hoping for the blowout."
Yeah, because MM counters adn/tutor/wish/killSpell.
Long answer:
I seriously doubt that.
Having mental misstep IS the reason why they would counter (or try to counter) almost any cc1 drop you can play.
Any decent (not pro, just decent) player knows A LITTLE which are the cards your deck plays, you don't have to know the list, just a guess if more than enough.
We do NOT have cc1 threats. Almost everything we can propose cc1 are cantrips and ramps.
Your example: I play turn1 darkrit, do you counter it GIVEN the fact that they have misstep and not any other counter? Yes you do.
Because MM becomes highly ineffective for any other threat we can throw at them (be it burning, infernal, bunch of leds, adn, tendrils, etw, igg).
And anyway, against our specific deck, using misstep to buy some tempo (albeit just 1 turn, it CAN be enough to compromise the game) is exactly the reason why they would play it against any of our cantrips/rits/chant.
You're missing the point completely. MM makes up 20% of the countersuite of tempo *****.
I suggest you read my previous posts, instead of just reading the last one and adressing things I already went through.
I'm done with this. I suggest a new sideboard strategy. Have you tested it? Try it first, post me your results and we'll talk.
I'm merely suggesting a new tech, tried it out and got some decent test results with it. 60% postsb against tt and 70% against countertop. Albeit low sample sizes may give a wrong image, this are results which suggest the etwplan may be viable.
So don't dismiss my ideas, based on a theoretic scheme.
Thank you for wanting to advance some discussion in the thread.Quote:
Originally Posted by Diprivan
On Etw: I think we need to evolve in order to combat the hype and the return of counterbalance, and i think this is an excellent way to start. I would just like to get an exact way your board looks, and how you board against tempo and counterbalance.
I also think that the reactive answers (pryoblast) to counterbalance are a necessary evil.
Another way i see playing against tempo is using them to jack your storm count. It has happened numerous times, and with empty the warrens, it could be even better.
You don't have to hit the first ritual... It would make more sense to hit whatever protection that they try to throw at you, or counter the second ritual. If the only protection in their hand is MM, then yeah, they should probably hit the first ritual (they also kept a shitty hand against storm IMO). If they have other counters as well, it is better to save the MM for stuff like brainstorm, ponder and protection spells, and hit the other key spells after their hands are empty.
If your opponent doesn't know that you are running 4x ETW post board, you are probably going to need at least 1 other spell at 1 cmc in order to go off in their eyes. They effectively negate both pieces of acceleration if they can keep you from going off after countering the second.
As far as I'm concerned, it is quite possibly the right play to not counter the ritual - especially if they just lead with Underground sea-> ritual
the second dark ritual?Quote:
Originally Posted by x8eikdls
Underground Sea -> Dark Ritual -> Duress -> Business
Underground Sea -> Dark Ritual -> Lotus Petal -> Moxes/LED -> EtW
Underground Sea -> Dark Ritual -> Lotus Petal/Moxes x2 -> Ad Nauseam
If your only disruption is the MM, you counter the first Dark Ritual. The only reason not to is because you're greedy and hoping they plan to go Dark Rit -> Dark Rit -> Ad Nauseam, or Dark Rit -> Petal -> Rite of Flame -> Ad Nauseam.
If you counter the first Dark Rit, you most likely shut them down for that turn, and possibly the next few turns if they needed that Ritual to resolve. You buy yourself a land drop, which gives you access to Brainstorm/Pierce/Daze/etcetcetc.
+1 i agree, MM is only there to buy time until you get mana and able to counter with other hard counters.Quote:
Originally Posted by x8eikdls
with out our acceleration it feel like ages before we can go off
+1 i agree, MM is only there to buy time until they get mana and able to counter with other hard counters.Quote:
Originally Posted by x8eikdls
with out our acceleration it feel like ages before we can go off
Exactly :)Quote:
Originally Posted by x8eikdls
Against T1 darkrit if you have MM as only counter there is no reason not to stop it.
Different thing is if everything happens on t2 and maybe you have both MM and fow, where you can choose NOT to counter the first rit as it could be a good bait for your counters and it follows with duress (in which case you should wait to MM the duress/orim given a fow in hand, otherwise it'll destroy your handcounters and go off t3) - but then we're talking about completely different situations.
Anyway going back to the multiple ETW board, I'm liking it- for now I'm going with 2x ETW main and 1sb to wish for postboard, further testing will see if MD 3x postboard will be needed.
Agreed.
I should have been more cleare with my example. If your only counter is MM, you use it ofc. I was speaking more generally i.e. "a deck with counters" aka any combination of counters in their opening 7.
I'm glad some people are testing the etw plan atm. Due to examens I don't have much time right now, but I'm interested in your findings. I suggest you figure out your own boarding strategy, however I'm willing to give mine if you are really doubting some choices. Please share your findings with us, that way we can see whether this idea holds some potential value.