Most common cards at GP Chicago Day 2

There's been talk about the GP Chicago Top 8, but I think that in general the Day 2 breakdown says a lot more about the format than the Top 8. Making Day 2 in a GP is like making Top 8 at a 100+ player tournament, it's a sure sign of a deck being competitive (though Byes distort the results somewhat).

EDIT: I had estimated some rough numbers about what were the most played cards on Day 2, but GreenOne took up the task of actually counting them, so I edited his numbers into this post (more detailed infos see some posts below)...

Out of 132 decks, there are

70 playing Wasteland
66 playing Force of Will
66 playing Brainstorm
54 playing Tarmogoyf
46 playing Daze
45 playing Sensei's Divining Top
43 playing Ponder
37 playing Counterbalance
34 playing Swords to Plowshares
33 playing Aether Vial
33 playing Dark Confidant
30 playing Thoughtseize
25 playing Spell Snare
24 playing Standstill


Popular cards who didn't make that list include Dark Ritual, Nimble Mongoose, Stifle (maindeck), or Life from the Loam.

So let's see...apart from Wasteland, that's

1. disruption (blue)
2. card draw (blue)
3. beater (green)
4. disruption (blue)
5. card draw (artifact)
6. card draw (blue)
7. permanent disruption (blue)
8. removal (white)
9. creature enabler (artifact)
10. permanent card draw (black)
11. disruption (black)
12. disruption (blue)
13. card draw (blue)


Interesting, isn't it ?

It's quite unsurprising once you consider

Quote:

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only counting decks showing up more than five times on Day 2...

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Which makes me wonder: why? Either their cards won't make the cut or, if some of them do, it means they're played a lot through multiple archetypes, so they should be taken into consideration. Thoughtseize, StP, Chalice and Confidant come to mind here.

Its not surprising when you consider the thresh dominance still and the overlap between archetypes. For instance landstill is a big player and Merfolk use standstill as well. And wasteland is used in sooo many archetypes. I'm at of the loop on tourneys. Is it still going? Do we have a final report of best decks?

I didn't count those showing up less than five times because by their labels it often isn't clear which of the cards in my list they play (is Painter + Grindstone EPIC Painter, or Imperial Painter? Does Faeries use Vial ? Does UW Control play Top ?). From a quick look, I think their exclusion doesn't alter the results much (Survival, Natural Order, Ravager etc wouldn't have made the cut in any case). But as I said, if someone has more accurate results, I can just edit this post.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by georgjorge

I didn't count those showing up less than five times because by their labels it often isn't clear which of the cards in my list they play (is Painter + Grindstone EPIC Painter, or Imperial Painter? Does Faeries use Vial ? Does UW Control play Top ?). From a quick look, I think their exclusion doesn't alter the results much (Survival, Natural Order, Ravager etc wouldn't have made the cut in any case). But as I said, if someone has more accurate results, I can just edit this post.

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If you're going to do a breakdown like this, and decklists are available, you should take the time to do it correctly.

For instance, I counted 31 decks playing 4x Aether Vial, and one playing 3x.

Slowly doing the work. Going to edit that post with more results. EDIT: done.

132 total decks.
More played cards in order from the most played to the less played (excluding basics, duals, fetches).

FoW
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x66 = 264
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 2
Brainstorm
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x65 + 3x1 = 263
Average per deck playing it: 3,98
Average per deck: 1,99
Wasteland:
Number of decks playing it: 70
How many: 4x53 + 3x15 + 1x2 = 259
Average per deck playing it: 3,70
Average per deck: 1,96
Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90
Daze
Number of decks playing it: 56
How many: 4x38 + 3x14 + 2x3 +1x1 = 201
Average per deck playing it: 3,59
Average per deck: 1,52
Ponder
Number of decks playing it: 43
How many: 4x26 + 3x6 + 2x11 = 144
Average per deck playing it: 3,35
Average per deck: 1,09
Sensei's Divining Top
Number of decks playing it: 45
How many: 4x15 + 3x21 + 2x5 + 1x4 = 137
Average per deck playing it: 3,04
Average per deck: 1,04
Counterbalance
Number of decks playing it: 37
How many: 4x26 + 3x11 = 137
Average per deck playing it: 3,70
Average per deck: 1,04
Swords to Plowshares
Number of decks playing it: 34
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 + 1x1 = 132
Average per deck playing it: 3,88
Average per deck: 1
Aether Vial
Number of decks playing it: 33
How many: 4x32 + 3x1 = 131
Average per deck playing it: 3,97
Average per deck: 0,99
Thoughtseize
Number of decks playing it: 30
How many: 4x15 + 3x6 + 2x7 + 1x2 = 94
Average per deck playing it: 3,13
Average per deck: 0,71
Standstill
Number of decks playing it: 24
How many: 4x20 + 3x4 = 92
Average per deck playing it: 3,83
Average per deck: 0,70
Spell Snare
Number of decks playing it: 25
How many: 4x7 + 3x13 + 2x5 = 77
Average per deck playing it: 3,08
Average per deck: 0,58
Duress
Number of decks playing it: 18
How many: 4x11 + 3x4 + 2x2 +1x1 = 61
Average per deck playing it: 3,38
Average per deck: 0,46
Lion's Eye Diamond
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x13 + 3x1 = 55
Average per deck playing it: 3,93
Average per deck: 0,42
Dark Ritual
Number of decks playing it: 11
How many: 4x11 = 44
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,33

It's worth noting that Goyf, Fow, Brainstorm and Wasteland have basically the same showings, with the other cards being a lot less present.

Not to be harsh, I really appreciate the work you're doing, but I'd like to point out: what do you understand by average per deck?

I mean:

Quote:

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FoW
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x66 = 264
Average per deck: 2

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Beyond any math, there's logic, so maybe I'm dumb as I never studied any statistic except basic statistic in high school, but... If every deck play 4, shouldn't average be 4?

Same happens to other cards:

Quote:

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Brainstorm
Number of decks playing it: 66
How many: 4x65 + 3x1 = 263
Average per deck: 1,99

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Isn't avarage copies per deck equal to total number of copies of a card divided by the number of decks playing it? In the case of Brainstorm (66 decks playing it, only playing 3 copies) the average would be 263/66=3,98, which sounds much better to me.

But, I insist, I'm far from being an expert in "statistic" an maybe this post it's a total nonsense.

:wink:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by godryk

Beyond any math, there's logic, so maybe I'm dumb as I never studied any statistic except basic statistic in high school, but... If every deck play 4, shouldn't average be 4?

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That just means he meant average between the TOTAL number of decks. Not average between only the decks that played it.

I don't know if it's a relevant number, though. Wouldn't it be more interesting to just tell the average number betweend decks that played the card ?

Or you could just give both. Or none, since it can be directly deducted from the previous informations : )

Thank you all for enlighten me. :wink:

I incorrectly assumed he meant: average per deck playing the card, which wasn't obviously what was written.

EDIT: I've seen you've added the average por deck playing the card, I think the whole thing gets more interesting. Thanks again.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by ParkerLewis

I don't know if it's a relevant number, though. Wouldn't it be more interesting to just tell the average number between decks that played the card ?

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I would say yes. If 50 decks play 4x FoW, and 50 don't play blue at all, that would mean the average number is 2 (per deck, total). Now, that number seems rather insignificant to me.

If you say, however, of those decks using FoW, the average number is 4, that would mean: If you put FoW in a deck, the corrrect number is 4. And this is a relevant observation, imho.

Bonus Section: the beaterz of legacy in order of popularity, analyzing only day 2 of the GP obv.

Tarmogoyf
Number of decks playing it: 64
How many: 4x61 + 3x2 + 1x1 = 251
Average per deck playing it: 3,92
Average per deck: 1,90

Dark Confidant
Number of decks playing it: 33
How many: 4x32 + 2x1 = 130
Average per deck playing it: 3,94
Average per deck: 0,98

Mogg Fanatic
Number of decks playing it: 23
How many: 4x20 + 3x2 + 2x1 = 88
Average per deck playing it: 3,82
Average per deck: 0,67

Goblin Lackey
Number of decks playing it: 17
How many: 4x17 = 68
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,52

Mishra's Factory
Number of decks playing it: 16
How many: 4x15 + 3x1 = 63
Average per deck playing it: 3,94
Average per deck: 0,48

Mutavault
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x9 + 3x4 + 2x1 = 50
Average per deck playing it: 3,57
Average per deck: 0,38

Nimble Mongoose
Number of decks playing it: 11
How many: 4x10 + 3x1 = 43
Average per deck playing it: 3,91
Average per deck: 0,33

Trygon predator (Majority in the MD)
Number of decks playing it: 20
How many: 3x3 + 2x16 + 1x1 = 42
Average per deck playing it: 2,1
Average per deck: 0,32

Sower of Temptation (circa 2/3 MD 1/3 SB)
Number of decks playing it: 17
How many: 3x7 + 2x9 + 1x1 = 40
Average per deck playing it: 2,35
Average per deck: 0,30

Vexing Shusher (circa half MD, half SB)
Number of decks playing it: 12
How many: 4x6 + 3x3 + 2x1 + 1x2 = 37
Average per deck playing it: 3,08
Average per deck: 0,28

Trinket Mage
Number of decks playing it: 14
How many: 4x2 + 3x4 + 2x8 = 36
Average per deck playing it: 2,57
Average per deck: 0,27

Merrow Reejerey
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x8 =32
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,24

Tombstalker
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x3 + 3x1 + 2x3 + 1x1 = 22
Average per deck playing it: 2,75
Average per deck: 0,17

Phyrexian Dreadnought
Number of decks playing it: 8
How many: 4x1 + 3x3 + 2x3 + 1x1 = 20
Average per deck playing it: 2,5
Average per deck: 0,15

Golgari Grave-Troll
Number of decks playing it: 5
How many: 4x5 = 20
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,15

Magus of the Moon
Number of decks playing it: 6
How many: 4x2 + 3x2 +2x1 +1x1 = 17
Average per deck playing it: 2,83
Average per deck: 0,13

Figure of Destiny
Number of decks playing it: 4
How many: 4x4 = 16
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,12

Kird Ape
Number of decks playing it: 4
How many: 4x4 = 16
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,12

Vendilion Clique
Number of decks playing it: 7
How many: 3x1 + 2x4 + 1x2 = 13
Average per deck playing it: 1,86
Average per deck: 0,10

Spellstutter Sprite
Number of decks playing it: 3
How many: 4x3 = 12
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,09

Wild Nacatl
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x2 = 8
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,06

Painter's Servant
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x2 = 8
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,06

Progenitus
Number of decks playing it: 7
How many: 1x7 = 7
Average per deck playing it: 1
Average per deck: ---

Nantuko Shade
Number of decks playing it: 2
How many: 4x1 + 2x1 = 6
Average per deck playing it: 3
Average per deck: 0,05

Hypnotic Specter
Number of decks playing it: 1
How many: 4
Average per deck playing it: 4
Average per deck: 0,03


Decks playing creatures in the MD and NOT playing Tarmogoyf*:
17 Goblin
9 Merfolk
5 Dredge
4 Burn/RDW (fanatics+Keldon Marauders..)
2 Progenitus Elves
2 Affinity
1 Monored Painter
1 Faerie Stompy
1 Salvager's combo
1 Faeries
1 MonoU Painter
1 Dragon Stompy
1 Natural Order
1 Slivers
1 Countertop
1 StifleNought

Total decks: 49
Total decks excluding Tribal decks: 19
So,
61,06% of the decks playing creatures are packing goyf.
83,14% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are packing goyf

This includes decks playing combo-creatures, like Painter, Salvagers, Gamekeepers, Ichorid, Progenitus.

* Excluding 5 Landstill (1 Eternal Dragon) and 1 UW control (2 eternal dragon)

Did you include Hippie and Nantuko Shade in the creature list? Weren't there at least 8 of them in the T8?

Anyway, excellent work! I appreciate, as others probably do too, seeing some hard data and actual numbers to consider in our endless Goyf debate. :wink:

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Peter_Rotten

Did you include Hippie and Nantuko Shade in the creature list? Weren't there at least 8 of them in the T8?

Anyway, excellent work! I appreciate, as others probably do too, seeing some hard data and actual numbers to consider in our endless Goyf debate. :wink:

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Thanks! I added Magus of the Moon, Hippie and Shade.
If you'd like any other creature to be in the list just tell me and I'll add it, it just takes a couple minutes.

Thanks for this.

Are you using a small program for this, or doing it all manually?

Manually.

On the discussion: Goyf is un-arguably the creature of the GP, with the other creatures A LOT less played:
1 Confidant every 2 goyfs
1 Mogg Fanatic every 3 goyfs,
1 Mishra's Factory every 4 goyfs,
1 Mongoose/Trygon Predator every 6 goyfs.

Blue is the most played colour in the format, and people is playing less and less non-goyf beaters, to play more utility creatures that can be categorized IMO:

Card Draw: Dark Confidant #2
Support to Standstill: Mishra #4 and Mutavault #5
Anti-Counterbalance: Trygon Predator #8, Vexing Shusher #10
Anti-Goyf: Sower fo temptation #9

So, basically the played creatures in legacy are either, in order:
- Goyf
- To draw cards
- Goblins
- To beat blue
- To beat Goyf

This makes me quite sad.

Better to have one overpowered creature that everyone can play than to have a creature that one deck can play and no one can answer, IMHO.

Things that surprise me...

Thoughtseize isn't among the more popular cards! However, unless I miscounted, there are still 43 decks that play either Duress or Thoughtseize (or both), the decks with Duress being pretty much ANT. So the 1cc black spot discard is still there, just split between two cards (it makes some sense to count it this way since unlike Ponder/Brainstorm, there are very few decks that play both of them).

In the months before the GP, many people said that the three creatures you needed to handle were Goyf, Tombstalker, and Dreadnought. But here 'Stalker and 'Nought show up in very small numbers only, in only 8 out of 132 decks, so maybe you don't have to tailor the removal you play to them. There were more Trygons and Sowers around than those two !

I'd count Mutavault and Factories as one (very few decks play both), which would make 2/2 manlands the third most played beater after Goyf and Confidant.

And as for Goyf, that number - 83% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are playing Goyfs - says it all.

Added Thoughtseize and Duress. Feel free to ask for other cards.

Added Dark Ritual and LED.

Evidently combo is not overpowered, even with the new AN tool OR is really underplayed OR the meta sucked for it. There's 1 Dark Ritual every 6 Force of Wills, and not every deck running dark ritual comboes where every deck packing force well.. counters.

The dominance of blue aggrocontrol is subtle but present. I mean, every counterbalance deck has a beautiful combo matchup, a quite good aggro matchup (due to Goyf and Counterbalance), and a fair matchup against control.
Where's the bad matchups? I can see only really good ones and fair ones.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GreenOne

Feel free to ask for other cards.

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Any Chub Toads?

I think the dominance of blue aggro-control is best shown by this: The most played cards don't represent different succesful deck types that fight against each other...they all make up one deck/archetype ! Witness:

4 Ponder
4 Brainstorm
4 Sensei's Top

4 Counterbalance
4 Force of Will
3 Daze
3 Thoughtseize
3 Spell Snare

4 Tarmogoyf
4 Dark Confidant

4 Swords to Plowshares

19 lands

...a rather straightforward 4c build, succesfully incorporating 11 out of the 13 most popular cards in the format in one deck (probably not playing Wasteland though).

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Skeggi

Any Chub Toads?

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Oh, you missed it:

Quote:

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Announcement Date: February 20, 2009
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Yep. 83% sounds about right to me. Good work, Georgjorge. Tarmos are a virus. I would like to add that the blue aggro-control decks (except Merfolk which makes a point not to splash) are pretty much all Tarmo decks with the other popular creatures taking turns from one deck to another.

No Tarmo=no dominating blue aggro-control environment

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GreenOne

Total decks excluding Tribal decks: 19
83,14% of the non-tribal decks playing creatures are packing goyf
* Excluding 5 Landstill (1 Eternal Dragon) and 1 UW control (2 eternal dragon)

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Wow, tweak the numbers much? Let's see, if you exclude all the decks that wouldn't be playing goyf, and then exclude all the decks that don't play goyf, then

100% of the decks at the GP played Tarmogoyf!

Yeah, the numbers I think would be a little skewed. A lot of tribal decks (prolly at least 25%) run Goyf. Those Goyfs might not have been subtracted along with the Tribal decks.

We have Goyflins and Golfolks now.


And 61% of decks with creatures run Goyf? I'm really surprised. What the hell are the other 39% of people doing?

I'm tempted to dust off my old Turbo Pascal skills and write a program to parse these results myself.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Forbiddian

And 61% of decks with creatures run Goyf? I'm really surprised. What the hell are the other 39% of people doing?

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They´re playing goblins. =]

/facepalm this whole thread.

I think the data is useful. It's not conclusive, but it is useful.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nightmare

Wow, tweak the numbers much? Let's see, if you exclude all the decks that wouldn't be playing goyf, and then exclude all the decks that don't play goyf, then

100% of the decks at the GP played Tarmogoyf!

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You're assuming that it would normally be reasonable for 80+% of the non-combo, non-tribal decks to play a single given creature. Your strawman is exceptionally fluffy.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by Nightmare

Wow, tweak the numbers much? Let's see, if you exclude all the decks that wouldn't be playing goyf, and then exclude all the decks that don't play goyf, then

100% of the decks at the GP played Tarmogoyf!

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I also said 61,06% of the decks playing creatures are packing goyf, just to avoid that.
But this number doesn't give an exact feeling of how much tarmogoyf is dominant in the metagame. I would not say that a deck with 1-2 Eternal Dragon as only creatures is a deck that plans on going beating. Same thing with a deck with 4 Painters or Salvagers+Gamekeepers. It's not a great manipulation when you offer both the percentage, and anyway, it's quite true that if you exclude decks that can't take advantage from goyf (like Ichorid, Gamekeeper, etc) and some tribal decks (not every, but some) then almost 100% of the decks that beat face are splashing green for Goyf.

I'm not assuming anything, Jack, and it would be great if you'd stop arguing with people (me) who have no agenda on the Tarmogoyf issue. I don't care about him at all. As long as he exists in the format, I will play him, as he is the best available creature. If he is somehow banned, I will find another card to play instead. Such is the benefit of being emotionally detached from deckbuilding.

I don't really give a shit, honestly, whether there were 100 or 1000 goyfs at GP Chicago. I just don't like people misrepresenting their statistics - which is what Green One was doing, for certain.

If you want to know what kind of presence the card had at the event, then consider it along with ALL the other cards, in ALL the other decks - not just the ones that make your case for you.

Providing context is misrepresentation?

Ur dum.

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Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin

Providing context is misrepresentation?

Ur dum.

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Providing context is not the same as selectively excluding portions of the sample pool that don't point to the results you're looking for.

So if I said, "1% of America's population is in jails. 11% of young black men are in jail.", I would be selectively excluding portions of the sample pool that don't point to the results I'm looking for, which is the number of young black men in jail versus the overall figure, for instance.

And there would be no valid conclusions or data that could be drawn from this selective discrimination of data.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin

So if I said, "1% of America's population is in jails. 11% of young black men are in jail.", I would be selectively excluding portions of the sample pool that don't point to the results I'm looking for, which is the number of young black men in jail versus the overall figure, for instance.

And there would be no valid conclusions or data that could be drawn from this selective discrimination of data.

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Well, certainly there is data that could be drawn. But you'd be lying if you were to say that those statistics aren't chosen to be leading.

What percentage of the jail population is black? What percentage of non-black males are in jail? What is the age defined as "Young?" These are as important in providing context as any of the information you've provided, but you've chosen to exclude it in order to invoke the idea that there is a disproportionately larger amount of black men in jail than the average populus. That may be true, but we certainly can't tell by your statistics alone - unless we take it at face value, which is exactly what you're hoping we do.

Besides, your example isn't what Green One did. It would be like saying "11% of young black males are in jail - if you don't count the ones in college, or the ones with full-time jobs."

I may not agree with what you say, sir, but I will defend to the death your right to say it.

Sometimes I write out posts that are funny in my head, laugh at them, and then delete them because it's better that way.

This was one of those times.

Well, I wrote
- the number of decks playing goyf,
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures and not being tribal.

I do believe people can read statistic on their own. The 3rd point statistic is obviously biased (is that the correct term?) if presented on its own, that's why I wrote #1 and #2 too. Obviously with that statistic I wanted to communicate something, and I'm sorry if that wasn't clear.

Quote:

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Originally Posted by GreenOne

Well, I wrote
- the number of decks playing goyf,
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures
- the number of decks playing goyf/the number of decks playing creatures and not being tribal.

I do believe people can read statistic on their own. The 3rd point statistic is obviously biased (is that the correct term?) if presented on its own, that's why I wrote #1 and #2 too. Obviously with that statistic I wanted to communicate something, and I'm sorry if that wasn't clear.

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I thought it was very clear. Also your source is easy to find, so anybody could look through and verify or think of contradictory data points to look up. I think Nightmare just didn't read your post and/or think.

Obviously every presented datum has an agenda. It either supports or refutes an idea. If you blame people for digging out data that support their ideas, you're really dumb. Try refuting the data instead of strawman.



It seems to me decks that have no business playing G at all crop up all over with Tarmogoyfs, and that's the general point.

I think a more telling data point might be, "What percentage of decks with fewer than 8 green cards are playing Tarmogoyf?" A similar line could be repeated for Force of Will, Brainstorm, and Daze, or even all the way down to Swords, Thoughtseize, etc which might be more "fair" since they're non-U. I think there would be an extremely trace number of decks splashing any extra colors for any cards other than Tarmogoyf (which I expect a lot of people would splash for).

This really narrows the Goyf numbers down to "The decks that have no business running G, but are better because of Tarmogoyf."

Those data could be coupled with, "What percentage of Tarmogoyf decks have less than 8 green cards?" and "What percentage of decks with any green but fewer than 8 green spells have Tarmogoyf?"