You are right, it makes it a draw!
And I realize I also win against Asthereal, as sinkhole cannot be played on T2. With more than half the MUs wrong in my initial analysis, I decided to just redo it a bit more carefully.
1. Asthereal (TO): Mishra’s Factory, Urborg, Tomb of Yawgmoth, Quicksand, Sinkhole
6-0, T2 Emrakul > T3 Sinkhole
6
2. Wrath of Pie: Urza's Factory, Icatian Store, Rishadan Port, Maze of Ith
3-3, T2 Emrakul OTP, and OTD I am ported down while the store gets counters, maze is discarded
9
3. GoblinSmashmaster: Sandstone Needle, Goblin Lackey, Flame Slash, Morophon, the Boundless
6-0. No LD!
15
4. Reeplcheep: Dust Bowl, Dunes of the Dead, Thran Turbine, Retrofitter Foundry
6-0, T2 combo > T3 LD
21
5. dte: Geier Reach Sanitarium, sandstone needle, Stronghold Gambit, Emrakul, the Aeons Torn
Me, with troubles evaluating Mus even without any combat maths.
6. silkster: Sandstone Needle, Dunes of the Dead, Hangarback Walker, Cleansing Wildfire
1-4. T2 targeted LD (can take sanitarium) + creature.
22
7. RoosterCocoa: Remote Farm, Remote Farm, Brimaz, King of Oreskos, Brutal Cathar
6-0, no LD
28
8. maxx!: Treetop Village, Gruul Turf, Sandstone Needle, Dust Bowl
6-0, late LD
34
9. FTW: Stomping Ground, Skyshroud Cutter, Gods' Eye, Gate to the Reikai, Crack the Earth
3-3. OTD crack the earth T2 beats me. OTP, T1 needle, FTW plays stomping ground (if cutter, I gambit T2), I play sanitarium, if FTW play crack the Earth, I take 2 manas of needle and sac it, then discard and shuffle. If no crack, double discard before his next turn.
37
10. jhhdk: Leyline of Abundance, Havenwood Battleground, Llanowar mentor, Kozilek, Butcher of Truth
2-2. If you ever play mentor, you have battleground is the gy, and leyline + kozilek in hand. End of your turn, I make you discard, you have to discard leyline or I play gambit. my turn I pass. You attack me for 1. End of your turn, crack needle and discard, both our gy shuffle. My worst is top Emrakul, then needle, yours is 2 cards, then Kozilek. Draw Emrakul. Draw Leyline, attack for 1. Draw and play needle. Draw Havenwood. Play Gambit.
So you never play mentor, and we stare for a long time.
39
11. PJim: Forest, Forest, Lush Growth, Thallid
1-4. T2 LD + creature beats me.
40
12. alphastryk: Westvale Abbey,Sand Silos,Sand Silos,Dust Bowl
6-0, late LD
46
Funnily enough, my initial score was correct even with 6/11 MUs wrong...