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  1. Replies
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    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    I still don't know why you're so stuck up on hypothesis testing.
    There is no reason to assume anything.
    You just present the data and that's it.

    What I was initially was suggesting was how to...
  2. Replies
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    3,562,234

    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    ?

    I still think that is an bad assumption.
    There's no reason to assume that any matchup besides the mirror is 50%.
    Why even assume anything in the first place?
    You just present the matchup data...
  3. Replies
    23,203
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    3,562,234

    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    TBH I don't really care about MTG anymore to even bother.
    The fact that it needs the community to collect and process the data instead of WotC is not helping.
    As physicist I just (should) know more...
  4. Replies
    23,203
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    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Conversion rate is a bad metric because only so many can make top whatever and an infinite number of people can run.

    However, if it's just UR, it's predators and the decks that pray on those, it's...
  5. Replies
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    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    People buy literally anything.
    Look at any of the butt ugly Secret Lairs.
    Sells like no tomorrow.

    However, so does cocaine, which has at most dubious health benefits.
  6. Replies
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    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Modern Horizons were a mistake.
  7. Thread: Dwarf Bugs

    by Zoid
    Replies
    91
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    4,702

    Re: Dwarf Bugs

    The initial versions of the deck can generate some advantage but rely heavily on drawing the right cards.

    As for beating unfair decks, that's what a big part of this thread is about.
    In a concept...
  8. Thread: Dwarf Bugs

    by Zoid
    Replies
    91
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    4,702

    Re: Dwarf Bugs

    My point was more that you always need like Magda + Changelings, Reyav + equipment + Rancor, etc.
    There is the Magda plan and the equipment plan which is a different deck which seems just better to...
  9. Thread: Dwarf Bugs

    by Zoid
    Replies
    91
    Views
    4,702

    Re: Dwarf Bugs

    While the build seems more streamlined, It has no ways of creating card advantage and always needs at least 3 specific cards to work.
    Your only plan seems to flood the board and hope your opponent...
  10. Thread: MTG Arena

    by Zoid
    Replies
    534
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    95,530

    Re: MTG Arena

    Isn't that an even bigger failure?
  11. Thread: MTG Arena

    by Zoid
    Replies
    534
    Views
    95,530

    Re: MTG Arena

    There's a difference between "code without bugs" and "it at least compiles :cry:".
    It's just industry standard now to release whatever is pushed at the end of the day without more than 5 min of...
  12. Thread: Battleforge

    by Zoid
    Replies
    27
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    997

    Re: Battleforge

    Path to Exile is still a card.
    While having to give your opponent a basic might suck, it's still better than losing or having to win the game twice.
  13. Thread: Battleforge

    by Zoid
    Replies
    27
    Views
    997

    Re: Battleforge

    I would concur on the main deck Canonist.
    It might be worth it against more "fair" decks since it stops the cantrip train.
    You also can't run Chalice.

    You don't have too many creatures which are...
  14. Replies
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    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    I still don't know where you're trying to go with this.
    If you have enough samples, outliers are expected.
    In fact it would be weird if you don't have them.




    Filling the diagonal in this...
  15. Replies
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    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    It is not.

    You have you have n matches for each matchup which are assumed to be independent from the rest.
    One deck wins k/n games.

    Assuming 50% win rate seems a stretch.
  16. Replies
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    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    I wouldn't label it as hypothesis testing but just as simple counting experiment to first order.
    If you interpret the data as Bernoulli experiment with n matches an k wins.
    The error then becomes...
  17. Replies
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    3,562,234

    Sticky: Poll: Re: All B/R update speculation.

    It would help if people would only fill in either half triangle.
    No idea who is favored here.

    Any info on the sample size?
    Apparently, statistical uncertainties haven't made it far enough.
  18. Re: Innistrad Crimson Vow: A Red Wedding That Won't Dissapoint!

    Locked behind cleavage cost.

    Pay cleavage to motorboat booba.
  19. Re: Innistrad Crimson Vow: A Red Wedding That Won't Dissapoint!

    Isn't this just a straight up better Eidolon?

    This could be the red Thalia but this guy is not legendary.
  20. Re: Innistrad Crimson Vow: A Red Wedding That Won't Dissapoint!

    More humans fodder.

    https://mythicspoiler.com/vow/cards/washaway.jpg

    A bit narrow but might have applications somewhere.
  21. Thread: Dark Moon

    by Zoid
    Replies
    2
    Views
    297

    Re: Dark Moon

    This seems spicy but I agree that it's very 1 dimensional.

    I feel like this needs Chalice but that is a nonbo.
    Maybe some Trinispheres main?
    Would help a lot with the DarkRitual.dec matchups....
  22. Re: Innistrad Crimson Vow: A Red Wedding That Won't Dissapoint!

    https://mythicspoiler.com/vow/cards/toxrillthecorrosive.jpg

    Might have some applications in reanimator somewhere.
  23. Re: Innistrad Crimson Vow: A Red Wedding That Won't Dissapoint!

    Ok, maybe you should specify you mean a Time Twister like effect during your turn.
  24. Re: Innistrad Crimson Vow: A Red Wedding That Won't Dissapoint!

    Why 14?

    Note that the draw only works if cards are drawn during a players turn.



    What would that do?
    It only works if both players control a ring.
    Otherwise it does nothing.
  25. Re: Innistrad Crimson Vow: A Red Wedding That Won't Dissapoint!

    Has some good jank material with Smothering Tithe.

    Otherwise:
    Narset? Leovold? Hull Breacher?

    https://mythicspoiler.com/vow/cards/changeoffortune.jpg

    This on the other hand seems very easy...
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