View Poll Results: Most bannable card in Legacy? (not that they will touch it)

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  • Brainstorm

    16 8.33%
  • Force of Will

    4 2.08%
  • Lion's Eye Diamond

    35 18.23%
  • Counterbalance

    34 17.71%
  • Sensei's Divining Top

    103 53.65%
  • Tarmogoyf

    46 23.96%
  • Phyrexian Dreadnaught

    2 1.04%
  • Goblin Lackey

    4 2.08%
  • Standstill

    6 3.13%
  • Natural Order

    8 4.17%
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Thread: All B/R update speculation.

  1. #23281

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Purple Blood View Post
    I wonder how much of this is due to them deciding that its not fun when both players run out of resources so lets make an obscene number of cards that instantly replace themselves.
    I think this is survivorship bias talking.

  2. #23282
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Alright, the topic is B&R, so make arguments pursuant to that, not about what cred and/or clout you might have.

    Thanks.
    "The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
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  3. #23283

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by H View Post
    Alright, the topic is B&R, so make arguments pursuant to that, not about what cred and/or clout you might have.

    Thanks.
    Look at this zero phd scrub
    Git parchment, kid

  4. #23284
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    Look at this zero phd scrub
    Git parchment, kid
    Deep burn. But yeah, lets get back on track here folks.
    "The Ancients teach us that if we can but last, we shall prevail."
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  5. #23285
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Ragabanned should be a thing.

    Murktide doesn't need to get banned, at least yet. The decks abusing Murktide are mainly Ragavan decks. Their Murktide is so devastating because the 1-drops force early interaction, depleting your answers. Ragavan also buys insane tempo to get ahead on cards and mana, so they can increase velocity of cantrips (MOAR DELVE) and stick & protect Murktide. Murktide is a great finisher for this kind of tempo-Ragavan strategy (UR 2Delver, URW Ragavan), but you don't see Murktide dominating the same way in other Xerox decks like Bant or Yorion ABCD. That should say a lot. Murktide in a vacuum isn't banworthy. Ragavan decks can just exploit it as a fast finisher once they've already pulled ahead.

    Murktide is power-creeped Tombstalker, but notice how Tombstalker hasn't been relevant in Legacy for many years.

    Edit: Murktide and Iteration are clearly problems too, but both should lose some power level after Ragavan gets banned. Iteration without Ragavan will work in 4c midrange decks but should be awkward in Delver, since it's a turn 3 play (Delver can't afford to run too many slots that are weak on 1-2 lands). Iteration is just the most efficient way to convert free Lotus Petals into cards/velocity/gas.

  6. #23286

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    I think this is survivorship bias talking.
    Not sure what you mean.

  7. #23287

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Ragabanned should be a thing.

    Murktide doesn't need to get banned, at least yet. The decks abusing Murktide are mainly Ragavan decks. Their Murktide is so devastating because the 1-drops force early interaction, depleting your answers. Ragavan also buys insane tempo to get ahead on cards and mana, so they can increase velocity of cantrips (MOAR DELVE) and stick & protect Murktide. Murktide is a great finisher for this kind of tempo-Ragavan strategy (UR 2Delver, URW Ragavan), but you don't see Murktide dominating the same way in other Xerox decks like Bant or Yorion ABCD. That should say a lot. Murktide in a vacuum isn't banworthy. Ragavan decks can just exploit it as a fast finisher once they've already pulled ahead.

    Murktide is power-creeped Tombstalker, but notice how Tombstalker hasn't been relevant in Legacy for many years.

    Edit: Murktide and Iteration are clearly problems too, but both should lose some power level after Ragavan gets banned. Iteration without Ragavan will work in 4c midrange decks but should be awkward in Delver, since it's a turn 3 play (Delver can't afford to run too many slots that are weak on 1-2 lands). Iteration is just the most efficient way to convert free Lotus Petals into cards/velocity/gas.
    This is the best take in the thread on this topic. I'll just add that if Tombstalker was blue it would have been relevant until Murktide was printed.

  8. #23288

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Ragabanned should be a thing.

    Murktide doesn't need to get banned, at least yet. The decks abusing Murktide are mainly Ragavan decks. Their Murktide is so devastating because the 1-drops force early interaction, depleting your answers. Ragavan also buys insane tempo to get ahead on cards and mana, so they can increase velocity of cantrips (MOAR DELVE) and stick & protect Murktide. Murktide is a great finisher for this kind of tempo-Ragavan strategy (UR 2Delver, URW Ragavan), but you don't see Murktide dominating the same way in other Xerox decks like Bant or Yorion ABCD. That should say a lot. Murktide in a vacuum isn't banworthy. Ragavan decks can just exploit it as a fast finisher once they've already pulled ahead.

    Murktide is power-creeped Tombstalker, but notice how Tombstalker hasn't been relevant in Legacy for many years.

    Edit: Murktide and Iteration are clearly problems too, but both should lose some power level after Ragavan gets banned. Iteration without Ragavan will work in 4c midrange decks but should be awkward in Delver, since it's a turn 3 play (Delver can't afford to run too many slots that are weak on 1-2 lands). Iteration is just the most efficient way to convert free Lotus Petals into cards/velocity/gas.
    Very nice, something serious to talk about.

    In my experience UR delver has mainly 3 problems, ragavan, murktide and iteration (and DRC to an extent)

    The main problem is indeed that you have way too many removal checks, letting ragavan alive turns ugly very quickly and the same happens with DRC to be honest (maybe you dont get as punished instantly but it makes multiple murktides super easy).

    The problem with murktide is just that the stats are too good, if you are unable to instantly get a removal for it, you just lose (i would say that you lose 80% of the games in which murktide connects once), the first murktide if often an 8/8, which is actually pretty much twice what a tarmogoyf brings to the table.
    If UR had ANY other top of the curve finisher, you would win much much more games because you manage to stabilize, what i have seen so far is that tons of times you do stabilize, but take one hit from murktide in the process, and somehow you are in bolt range or close already


    On the tombstalker power creep, getting +3+3 clearly is an incredible power creep, but really is being blue that pushes it over the top, no one should argue that a blue tombstalker would have been the main beastick for any tempo deck from 2007 to 2020, while the BB cost forces you into UBx, which has not always been optimal.

    Murktide is not often played alongside green mostly because green is a playable color only because it brings to the table uro + library + loam (+ endurance and GSZ), most of those engines already do require grave usage, also Murktide is stupid broken in a deck capable of leveraging tempo, while those deck are mainly slower decks which do not really care about damage dealt.
    On the other hand, no deck besides tempo truly plays ragavan either (not counting memes), the cards are clearly meant to be played in a tempo shell

    Anyway, in my experience, murktide actually is more important to ur than ragavan itself, but i dont want too much about it, but i surely think that if ragavan is indeed better, is not by that much even.
    I truly think that if people starts taking notes, most of them would come up with a major lose rate to a resolved murktide than to a resolved ragavan to be honest

    Also, as a sidenote, regent is the third delve card which managed to be a staple 4 of not even in duscussion, the only other two card which made it are Cruise and Dig...
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  9. #23289

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Purple Blood View Post
    Not sure what you mean.
    I mean they print tons of cards that don't and realitively few that do but because those are the only ones that can break through there the only ones that get talked about

  10. #23290

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    I mean they print tons of cards that don't and realitively few that do but because those are the only ones that can break through there the only ones that get talked about
    That's a fair point but ultimately the point is that those cards are getting printed to a much larger degree as of late.

  11. #23291
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Noctalor View Post
    Anyway, in my experience, murktide actually is more important to ur than ragavan itself, but i dont want too much about it, but i surely think that if ragavan is indeed better, is not by that much even.
    I truly think that if people starts taking notes, most of them would come up with a major lose rate to a resolved murktide than to a resolved ragavan to be honest
    This reminds me of a bias that comes up in Limited card evaluation, if simply relying on stats/memory of what you lose to.

    In Limited, the cards with highest win % after resolution are Wraths and Overruns. But those aren't actually the best cards in Limited. They're conditional cards that you wait to cast until they would completely swing the game. If you look at the % of games you win after the card is resolved (or instead, how often you lost after opponent resolved that card), it skews highly towards Wraths and Overruns. But you miss all the time that card was stuck in hand, uncastable, or not relevant to the board state. The same thing can happen with 7-8 cmc Mythic Rare bombs, which can be back-breaking but also have a high "dud" rate. We just don't notice the times they're stuck dead in opponent's hand, and the win/lose rates don't reflect that either.

    We tend to remember the flashy finishers that beat us. But often opponent was already ahead in the game. It just dealt the final blow. We tend to neglect the early 2-for-1 or tempo exploit that really put opponent in a winning position to deploy the unanswered finisher, how they ended up with more threats than we have answers.

    Anyway, I wonder if the same bias may occur comparing Ragavan to Murktide. If you look at the win/lose rate of a resolved Murktide, it probably is higher than the rate for a resolved Ragavan. But that rate misses all the time Murktide was trapped dead in hand or buried by cantrips/EI because it was not helpful at that time. Monke is 1 cmc. If they have one, you probably see it. But they tend to play Murktide once they're ahead and can protect it. We all remember losing to Murktide and being unable to stop it fast enough, but we don't notice when they had/buried Murktides they didn't want. It's also less intuitive for us to notice the smaller tempo play that let opponent pull ahead with a protected threat, while the big 8/8 smashing our face is wearing a flashy neon vest.

    Fireblast has a similar bias in Burn.

    Marit Lage also has a very high win rate, though that misses all the games Depths got disrupted before one could be created.


    Quote Originally Posted by Noctalor View Post
    The problem with murktide is just that the stats are too good, if you are unable to instantly get a removal for it, you just lose (i would say that you lose 80% of the games in which murktide connects once), the first murktide if often an 8/8, which is actually pretty much twice what a tarmogoyf brings to the table.
    If UR had ANY other top of the curve finisher, you would win much much more games because you manage to stabilize, what i have seen so far is that tons of times you do stabilize, but take one hit from murktide in the process, and somehow you are in bolt range or close already
    I agree with your main observations here, but that's the definition of power creep. Its stats are pushed, better rates than anything before it, and that allows them to keep tempo advantage and finish faster. Does that mean its banworthy though? By that argument, any power creeped card should be banned, because it does its job better than any previous cards. But power creep is a format inevitability. The stats of vanilla beaters keep getting pushed over time. If this was banned, eventually some other big beater would appear.

    Blue Tombstalker existed (Ethereal Forager) and saw play in UR Delver, although that card was not very good. It was just the best option available.

    Regular Tombstalker was still viable for BUG or Grixis tempo for years, but unpopular. Gurmag Angler was preferable once printed. Despite not flying, it presented the same clock (with fewer resources), and they just wanted some big dumb finisher. An interesting question is if a 6UB Tombstalker would have seen play over Angler.

  12. #23292

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    This reminds me of a bias that comes up in Limited card evaluation, if simply relying on stats/memory of what you lose to.
    By talking about winrates specifically, i may have been misleading.
    Ofc we know that in Doomsday Thassa has probably a 90% winrate when casted, while probably doomsday itself has a much lower outcome.

    We tend to remember the flashy finishers that beat us. But often opponent was already ahead in the game.
    Yeah, this is kinda what I was trying to say to be fair.
    Everyone talks about ragavan as if volcanic + ragavan + daze always appens, but from what i have seen (and this is probably due to the meta being shaped by ragavan, not gonna lie), the monkey's value greatly diminishes the longer the game goes, tons of times ragavan is actually in check by turn 2.

    And still it is broken as hell, not claiming it is not.

    What i have experienced is that murktide is online as soon as turn 3, and it's value never diminishes, you either have removal or you lose, regardless of your board state

    Monke is 1 cmc. If they have one, you probably see it. But they tend to play Murktide once they're ahead and can protect it. We all remember losing to Murktide and being unable to stop it fast enough, but we don't notice when they had/buried Murktides they didn't want.
    To be fair, is safe to assume that having too many murktides is not a big deal, or playing 4 of them would not be 100% mandatory in any UR list, as i said, they only payoff so good to be still a 4 of despite having delve and an high cost was ancestral recall, and dig through time.
    On the other hand, it is true that murktide is a 4 off both because it is busted and because DRC provides support

    I agree with your main observations here, but that's the definition of power creep.
    I think this narrative about "just being power creep" is a bit lazy.
    It's clear that you can start with basically any card, and power creep it to power9 level of being good, with murktide, we are talking about getting to be blue and getting +3+3, now, we could do the same with other cards:

    Darktide Confidant 5/4
    At the beginning of your upkeep, reveal the top card of your library and put that card into your hand. You lose life equal to its mana value.

    Dryad Regent
    Color Indicator: Blue Land Creature Island Dryad 4/4
    (Dryad Regent isnt a spell, its affected by summoning sickness, and it has {T}: Add .)

    This is the MH2 treatment, ist not just power creep, is power creeping a card so much that you get probably the most impactful creature in the format (or at least top 3 easily).

    Also, for the lulz, a 6/6 nacatl would probably be enough to push zoo back into legacy

    any power creeped card should be banned, because it does its job better than any previous cards.
    As i said above, it depends on the magnitude of the creep, blue tombstalker would aready be a massive power creep over BB stalker, and it would have been enought to push it into UR delver and enought to be one of the best creature in the format, adding +3+3 to an already overstatted creature which got the insane buff of becoming blue may just be too much

    Blue Tombstalker existed (Ethereal Forager) and saw play in UR Delver, although that card was not very good. It was just the best option available.
    Nah, they are functionally different, i would argue that forager is probably closer to a nerfed Dreadhorde (it kinda does the same thing, but it's not a turn 2 play and you have to pay the mana for the free spells you cast, but you get some minor buffs alongside).
    Traditionally, what delver needs is to have the best beatstick possible, a blue tombstalker would have been a top3 legacy card from 2007 to 2020, until the +3+3 version gets printed

    Regular Tombstalker was still viable for BUG or Grixis tempo for years, but unpopular. Gurmag Angler was preferable once printed. Despite not flying, it presented the same clock (with fewer resources), and they just wanted some big dumb finisher. An interesting question is if a 6UB Tombstalker would have seen play over Angler.
    I am unsure about the 6UB stalker, but i think having to tap half the lands is way more important, if regent had no flying but needed only a single blue, it would be so busted that no one would argue about it being too good, flying is a pretty damn good buff, but surely not whort 1 mana in legacy, pretty much any staple card wo flying would be garbage with +1mana+flying and almost any flying playable card would be busted with -1mana-flying


    Tu sum it up, indeed regent is creeping existing cards, but this is one of the biggest creep in legacy history, by being this much better, it actually changes how the card functionally works
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  13. #23293
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Edit: Murktide and Iteration are clearly problems too, but both should lose some power level after Ragavan gets banned. Iteration without Ragavan will work in 4c midrange decks but should be awkward in Delver, since it's a turn 3 play (Delver can't afford to run too many slots that are weak on 1-2 lands). Iteration is just the most efficient way to convert free Lotus Petals into cards/velocity/gas.
    Not to argue Iteration should be banned, but the Oko era taught us that if a 3-mana card is actually good enough Delver can and will play it.

    As an aside, Zoo won't be playable until it gets access to literal Force of Will.

    EDIT: this is also an aside, but is mainboard graveyard hate just something you want and if so, is that a bad thing? Murktide and DRC aren't great in the face of Rest in peace. 3 recently banned cards were reliant on having a graveyard (W6, Arcanist, Underworld Breach EDIT EDIT: 4 if you don't Lurrus and 5 if you count DRS as recent). Part of me wonders if any of them would still be legal if nuking graveyards was something that every deck was equipped to do.

  14. #23294

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Watersaw View Post
    Part of me wonders if any of them would still be legal if nuking graveyards was something that every deck was equipped to do.
    Part of it is saga and edict are very good against counterspells, but curses has the best fair blue matchup right now that it ever had.

    Not to mention that most blue control decks are uro+loam decks right now.

  15. #23295
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Those +3/+3 examples aren't a fair comparison. 8/8 Murktide Regent is blue Tombstalker power-creeped by 60%. 1/1 to 4/4 is power-creeped by 300%! A fair comparison would be a 3/2 Bob or a 1/2 Dryad Arbor. Those would certainly be strong, but not as outrageous as the ones you made. 5/5 Wild Nacatl would be equivalent, which is what I posted a few pages back as the rough power level needed for Zoo to be relevant. I support the printing of 5/5 Nacatl if it has the appropriate conditions so blue tempo can't use it. It would breathe life into an otherwise dead archetype, without being easy to abuse in current top decks.

    Pushing the stats on dumb beaters isn't unreasonable, because beatdown is ALL they can do. Other Legacy creatures do other things too. That was how we got past the Tarmogoyf era. They didn't print new beaters as big as Goyf, but instead we got smaller creatures that did things beyond beatdown, and that proved to be more valuable overall (to the point where Goyf got increasingly pushed out of the format). If all a creature can do is turn sideways, maybe it should have big stats? Other creatures have card advantage, deathtouch, hate abilities, combo-enabling, protection, etc. Beaters have to do something distinct from utility creatures, like beat harder.

    Hogaak is also an early 2-mana 8/8, and it even has trample! But it's fine in Legacy because players recognize they can hate it out with grave hate. Murktide is just as soft to grave hate though. Maybe this is a failure of players to bring in enough grave hate against UR. Once Ragavan is gone, most of their deck is graveyard-based. Grave hate and flyer hate both punish them.

    The main argument to ban Ragavan is not that Ragavan is unbeatable, but that the interaction of Ragavan + Daze + Volcanic Turn 1 on the play should not exist in the format. It creates non-games where the first player has too much tempo and fair opponent can't stabilize despite having the answers. Like you said it doesn't happen all the time. It's more that when it does, those non-games shouldn't exist. It's a design flaw in the mechanics of the game.

    Re: maindeck GY hate, this was one of my reasons for trying to revive UW Rest in Peace. A lot of the new overpowered cards rely on the graveyard. This axis isn't being attacked enough. Curses does it well.

  16. #23296

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Those +3/+3 examples aren't a fair comparison. 8/8 Murktide Regent is blue Tombstalker power-creeped by 60%. 1/1 to 4/4 is power-creeped by 300%! A fair comparison would be a 3/2 Bob or a 1/2 Dryad Arbor. Those would certainly be strong, but not as outrageous as the ones you made. 5/5 Wild Nacatl would be equivalent, which is what I posted a few pages back as the rough power level needed for Zoo to be relevant. I support the printing of 5/5 Nacatl if it has the appropriate conditions so blue tempo can't use it. It would breathe life into an otherwise dead archetype, without being easy to abuse in current top decks.

    Pushing the stats on dumb beaters isn't unreasonable, because beatdown is ALL they can do. Other Legacy creatures do other things too. That was how we got past the Tarmogoyf era. They didn't print new beaters as big as Goyf, but instead we got smaller creatures that did things beyond beatdown, and that proved to be more valuable overall (to the point where Goyf got increasingly pushed out of the format). If all a creature can do is turn sideways, maybe it should have big stats? Other creatures have card advantage, deathtouch, hate abilities, combo-enabling, protection, etc. Beaters have to do something distinct from utility creatures, like beat harder.

    Hogaak is also an early 2-mana 8/8, and it even has trample! But it's fine in Legacy because players recognize they can hate it out with grave hate. Murktide is just as soft to grave hate though. Maybe this is a failure of players to bring in enough grave hate against UR. Once Ragavan is gone, most of their deck is graveyard-based. Grave hate and flyer hate both punish them.

    The main argument to ban Ragavan is not that Ragavan is unbeatable, but that the interaction of Ragavan + Daze + Volcanic Turn 1 on the play should not exist in the format. It creates non-games where the first player has too much tempo and fair opponent can't stabilize despite having the answers. Like you said it doesn't happen all the time. It's more that when it does, those non-games shouldn't exist. It's a design flaw in the mechanics of the game.

    Re: maindeck GY hate, this was one of my reasons for trying to revive UW Rest in Peace. A lot of the new overpowered cards rely on the graveyard. This axis isn't being attacked enough. Curses does it well.
    I think that there are two main reasons why ragavan it's pushed, one being the turn1 blowout and one being dash.
    Indeed ragavan diminishes in value the longer the game goes, but by having dash it still can win you the game on turn 10 if your opponent has no blocker/removal and youi hit well (also the whole RNG mechaninc is pure garbage).

    As far as creeping confident and arbor, i pourposely made it unbelievably broken, in a vacuum it's still "just a power crept version of said card", my point was that power creep can lead to broken cards if you push it enough.

    On GY hate vs delver, it does some work right now, the main issue is that this current iteration of delver has both the best beaters, the best cantrips and the best countermagic, so hating on it by slamming hate pieces is not guaranteed (unless you go for the leyline route or spam relevant treaths), also they have too many game breaker tools if needed, when (if, at this point, sadly) ragavan gets axed, they could still put up a good fight against the meta and they still have the tools to be an insanely oppressive deck.
    Actually, yorion taxes is in a very decent spot against UR delver and it has 8 stp + skyclave + rip and still the main two reason it loses to delver are ragavan blowout and murktide + force on kill spell.

    Pushing the stats on dumb beaters isn't unreasonable, because beatdown is ALL they can do.
    On this point, i still want to stress that because beating is all they can do, hitting certain tresholds holds immense value.
    For example, a 19/19 marit lage does 50% of the work of the current token against non fetchlands deck, lets say that a 17/17 marit lage for sure does, while a 999/999 one is kinda functionally the same.
    Murktide, by getting to 7/7 guarantees a 3 hit ko (so it's much better ofc because stalker needs 4 and goyf often 5), by reaching 8/8 it also gets to kill you in two hit (+ bolt + fetch)

    Hogaak is also an early 2-mana 8/8
    Clearly, the problem here is that hookag is printed to be a broken piece of cardboard, absolute terror but held back by a very (at least on paper) harsh summoning condition (that is enough to force it in ad hoc decks), murktide has the same stats, has flying instead of trample, but requires to tap two volcs.
    Bringing hoogak to the table also pushes the idea that murktide is actually busted

    The main argument to ban Ragavan is not that Ragavan is unbeatable
    Indeed, they should ban either because a card is too good or because a card is too unfun, basicly no mtg card actually is unbeatable
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  17. #23297
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Noctalor View Post
    On GY hate vs delver, it does some work right now, the main issue ....
    Actually, yorion taxes is in a very decent spot against UR delver and it has 8 stp + skyclave + rip and still the main two reason it loses to delver are ragavan blowout and murktide + force on kill spell.
    Bant is also favored. Maindeck Endurance does a lot of work.

    8cast players could run more maindeck GY hate artifacts, easy synergy with their deck.


    Quote Originally Posted by Noctalor View Post
    On this point, i still want to stress that because beating is all they can do, hitting certain tresholds holds immense value.
    For example, a 19/19 marit lage does 50% of the work of the current token against non fetchlands deck, lets say that a 17/17 marit lage for sure does, while a 999/999 one is kinda functionally the same.
    Agreed. The math on them absolutely matters. If Murktide capped at 7/7, it would be a big difference. Just 1 turn faster than Tombstalker, or 2 attacks + 2 Bolts.

    Quote Originally Posted by Noctalor View Post
    Clearly, the problem here is that hookag is printed to be a broken piece of cardboard, absolute terror but held back by a very (at least on paper) harsh summoning condition (that is enough to force it in ad hoc decks), murktide has the same stats, has flying instead of trample, but requires to tap two volcs.
    Bringing hoogak to the table also pushes the idea that murktide is actually busted
    By that logic, Hogaak only requires "tap two dorks". Murktide also has conditions. Both have high Delve and are equally hated out by GY hate. Both are worth drawing counters or spot removal. Hogaak is just nonblue and harder to protect.

    The fact that it's so hard to answer in UR Delver isn't just Murktide's power level in a vacuum, but all the other strong cards. Delver was already Tier 1 and gained +16 power-creeped cards. If other decks got this much support, the power creep wouldn't feel this unbalanced. Bant Exit has also gained a lot of new cards, and it keeps up. Other MH2-heavy decks do too (Sagavan, 8cast).

    I also suspect Murktide was a design oversight. R&D designed the set with Modern in mind. In Modern it takes some effort to support Murktide. They probably thought it would be a 5/5-6/6 most of the time, sometimes weaker, sometimes 7/7, occasionally an 8/8 topdeck in lategame. That sounds fair. They probably didn't consider how easily Legacy Xerox fills the yard, nor factor in the interactions with Ragavan and DRC to fuel it even faster. Even in Legacy Pre-MH2, UR Delver would have struggled to make 8/8 Murktides with tempo. Ethereal Forager often delved only 2-3 spells. Both DRC (mill) and Ragavan (moar cantrips) add velocity to fuel Murktide.

    The question now is whether that mistake is banworthy or just overpowered. The format has many ways to interact with it, so at least it's not some uninteractive RNG machine. Murktide also gets weaker when you remove some of its opening gas (Monke ban).

  18. #23298
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    I love posing as a contrarian (in this case, pretend -not even so much- ragaBan could remain in the format)

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    The main argument to ban Ragavan is not that Ragavan is unbeatable, but that the interaction of Ragavan + Daze + Volcanic Turn 1 on the play should not exist in the format. It creates non-games where the first player has too much tempo and fair opponent can't stabilize despite having the answers. Like you said it doesn't happen all the time. It's more that when it does, those non-games shouldn't exist. It's a design flaw in the mechanics of the game.
    WHY?

    I mean, about "Those non games shouldn't exist". WHY?!
    I could say those games when All Spells decks kill you on turn one shouldn't exist, because it's an unfun experience.
    We tolerate that in the format, though, because
    - it's hatable (and sure a one-drop that dies to every removal is too)
    - most importantly, it doesn't happen all the time

    I think with Ragavan it's the same. Someone before was speaking of survivor bias and other similar things, it's just that everybody remembers when this combination of cards happens and not all the time when
    - ragavan is not in the opening hand
    - daze is not in the opening hand
    - the UR player is on the draw
    - removal on the creature resolves
    - the blind flip of the top card hits nothing
    - etc

    When you pretend to be making a rational discussion, you can factor in the feeling, but you should also consider the real impact and not the perceived one.

  19. #23299
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Ragavan is a mana advantage exploit as well as a first player advantage exploit, same as DRS. Meaningful counterplay is minimal; it's not just the inability to profitably respond to turn 1 threat with Wasteland, it's that in either case you are talking about a card that also wins the game by itself (i.e. unlike any other mana dork, you're not going to catch back up with a wrath). This combination of mana advantage and ability to protect the queen naturally leads to Daze abuse; legacy's classic first player advantage exploit.

    Any time you see mana advantage, it is a variation of working around 1 land per turn rule. The chess equivalent is taking two moves in a row. If your opening hand isn't perfect, your Delver opponent is effectively opening the game 2 turns ahead of you. This is the non-game people are talking about.

  20. #23300

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    By that logic, Hogaak only requires "tap two dorks". Murktide also has conditions. Both have high Delve and are equally hated out by GY hate. Both are worth drawing counters or spot removal. Hogaak is just nonblue and harder to protect.
    Well, ofc you know that being "nonblue" and as a consequence "harder to protect" is indeed a big deal, also it's obvious that (in legacy at least), tapping two blue lands is nowhere near as hard as tapping two creatures, by design hookag is forced into a specific shell, and the card is soo good despite forcing you in said shell, to spawn a fairly competitive archetype.
    Murktide on the other hand has close to the same power level, and can just be played as a 4 off in what would already be one of the best decks with no real downside

    The fact that it's so hard to answer in UR Delver isn't just Murktide's power level in a vacuum, but all the other strong cards. Delver was already Tier 1 and gained +16 power-creeped cards. If other decks got this much support, the power creep wouldn't feel this unbalanced. Bant Exit has also gained a lot of new cards, and it keeps up. Other MH2-heavy decks do too (Sagavan, 8cast).
    I do agree that is quite hard to make "in a vacuum" evaluations of UR's cards because most of them are triving in the absolute overpowered current shell.
    I do not agree that other decks are keeping up that well, it's clear from the data that most of good players go in autopilot on UR for any important event and despite it happening the deck is showing mostly good, UR is currently beating most of the meta despite having shaped said meta

    I also suspect Murktide was a design oversight.
    I agree, also, fun fact, if you look up the modern metagame, their version of UR delver is referred as:

    And is still one of the best deck of the format

    The question now is whether that mistake is banworthy or just overpowered. The format has many ways to interact with it, so at least it's not some uninteractive RNG machine. Murktide also gets weaker when you remove some of its opening gas (Monke ban).
    No idea really, in my experience murktide really is too overtuned, but i may be wrong

    WHY?

    I mean, about "Those non games shouldn't exist". WHY?!
    I could say those games when All Spells decks kill you on turn one shouldn't exist, because it's an unfun experience.
    My go to approach is "how much you could lose vs how much you could gain"
    In this example:
    Balustrade:
    You gain a win vs you go hellbent (and lose basicly 99% of the times)
    Ragavan
    You gain a free lotus petal + 20-40% chance (done no maths on this) of drawing an extra card (per turn) vs you trade 1 for 1 on mana and cards

    This is mostly what makes one drop keen to be OP, the downside will always be something similar to "you trade 1 for 1 on mana and cards", which means going even IF your opponent has a one mana removal

    By applying this logic to murktide
    You deal 40% of the total HP of your oppo (per turn) vs you trade 1 for 1 card and 2 for 1 mana

    So you can actually come up on top of the exchange, but you also do lose an absurd amount of HP each turn that you are unable to
    "You either die a Onesto-Player, or live long enough to see yourself become a Dredger"

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