View Poll Results: Most bannable card in Legacy? (not that they will touch it)

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  • Brainstorm

    16 8.33%
  • Force of Will

    4 2.08%
  • Lion's Eye Diamond

    35 18.23%
  • Counterbalance

    34 17.71%
  • Sensei's Divining Top

    103 53.65%
  • Tarmogoyf

    46 23.96%
  • Phyrexian Dreadnaught

    2 1.04%
  • Goblin Lackey

    4 2.08%
  • Standstill

    6 3.13%
  • Natural Order

    8 4.17%
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Thread: All B/R update speculation.

  1. #23321

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Yeah everytime a ridiculously OP card gets banned, you get people showing up to hottake about how this actually helps the decks that ran it because it frees up slots to run cards they could have been running anyway but didn't because the banned card was better.
    Hahahahahah

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  2. #23322
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    It's almost like Delver was always a better card.

    I don't have a dog in this fight. Just sayin'.
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    I am tired of malicious top 8s and it is time to put an end to the practice.

  3. #23323
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    I too like to flex about being bad at statistics
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  4. #23324
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    Anyway, so now that we've had time to aggregate data and Delver has gone from 22% rep in top 8s to 15%, do you want to apologize and admit you were showing your ass here or what
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  5. #23325

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Anyway, so now that we've had time to aggregate data and Delver has gone from 22% rep in top 8s to 15%, do you want to apologize and admit you were showing your ass here or what
    What are you talking about. Itís 22% at one of the largest recent events. With everyone gunning for it with multiple maindeck pyroblasts, it still has tier 1 winrates.


  6. #23326

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Anyway, so now that we've had time to aggregate data and Delver has gone from 22% rep in top 8s to 15%, do you want to apologize and admit you were showing your ass here or what
    What are you talking about. Itís 22% at one of the largest recent events. With everyone gunning for it with multiple maindeck pyroblasts, it still has tier 1 winrates.
    lol, fake profile guy pwned

  7. #23327
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    What are you talking about. Itís 22% at one of the largest recent events. With everyone gunning for it with multiple maindeck pyroblasts, it still has tier 1 winrates.
    Again, bragging about being bad at stats is a weird flex

    https://www.mtgtop8.com/format?f=LE
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  8. #23328
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Expressive Iteration is a dumb card that will be banned
    Also, feeling real good about this call rn
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  9. #23329
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by Reeplcheep View Post
    Delver usually doesnít have 2 lands plus a land drop on t3 (That means you havenít wasted or dazed at all on the first 2 turns) or 0 mana proactive spells. Snap caster and TNN are considered lategame cards by delver standards.
    Here's a guy who makes good calls about what cards do and will be played, definitely listening to this guy
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  10. #23330

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Again, bragging about being bad at stats is a weird flex

    https://www.mtgtop8.com/format?f=LE
    Part of being good at stats is accounting for bad data. Top 2 of a 10 man event is essentially useless data.

  11. #23331
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Again, bragging about being bad at stats is a weird flex

    https://www.mtgtop8.com/format?f=LE
    28% at Major Events in Last 4 Months (Ragabanned 6 months ago)
    https://www.mtgtop8.com/format?f=LE&meta=188&a=

    Next biggest shares:
    8cast 9%
    UWR 9%
    Nothing else over 5%

    Under "Last 2 Months" UR Delver is only 15%, but that includes a lot of 10-30 player events with Tier 3 brews. Those take up more meta share in small events.
    Stoneblade v MonoR storm top 2 of 13-player event, Hive Mind winning 18-player event, Aluren & 2 Food Chains top 8 of 32-player event, etc.

  12. #23332
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Careful that you donít throw your back out, hauling those goalposts all over
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  13. #23333

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Properly weighting the quality of your data is essential to being a good statistician. Second place in top 8 went 2-1. Every single person in the top 8 of a 80 man event won 3 in a row.

    Otherwise you are like the crazies who think 12 double blind studies showing vaccines work and your moms cousinsís hairdressers son got autism are equally valid evidence.

  14. #23334
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Careful that you donít throw your back out, hauling those goalposts all over
    Can't shift goalposts when those are the first I've set.

    You mean you disagree with mine. But what are YOUR goalposts? And what makes them right?

  15. #23335
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Can't shift goalposts when those are the first I've set.

    You mean you disagree with mine. But what are YOUR goalposts? And what makes them right?
    The fact that I'm using the same metric for stat A and stat B, for starts.

    You can't use one number for UR Delver prevalence with Ragavan, and another for UR Delver prevalence without, and then say, "Oh but the second stat is more accurate."

    If you want to make that case that's fine in a vacuum but you need to apply it to both halves of the things you're comparing to each other

    This is like stats 101, if not earlier. This is just basic good argumentation. Scrambling because number A is bigger than number B and that hurts your argument, so you try to find some way to reframe number B to be bigger while not applying the same change in metric to number A is just really obviously bad faith argumentation on a fundamental level.

    Honestly it's fucking embarrassing that I have to explain this
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  16. #23336
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    The fact that I'm using the same metric for stat A and stat B, for starts.

    You can't use one number for UR Delver prevalence with Ragavan, and another for UR Delver prevalence without, and then say
    Except I never gave a stat A, so I never did anything inconsistent. I only gave data for UR Delver's current metagame dominance. Your patronizing is then irrelevant.

    Where does this "before" stat come from? Reeplcheep compared Challenges before and after Ragaban: apples to apples. Nothing wrong there. You pulled out 22% without a source or anyone agreeing on it.

    You have to decide on a reasonable way to measure competitive metagame share:
    a) Large Events only
    b) All MTGO Legacy events (Challenges & Leagues, not practice room)
    c) All Paper Legacy events
    d) All Paper and online events (b + c)
    e) Paper and online events logged on mtgtop8

    They won't all be the same. The online meta (B) is a bit different from the paper meta (C).

    D & E are also different. mtgtop8 has good coverage of large events, but very inconsistent coverage of small events. Some LGS weeklies get posted, most don't. Once in a while an MTGO League result makes it up, but most of the 5-0 dump doesn't. It's a real crapshoot what makes it on there. Very far from all small events. It's not a random sample of them either. Just some of them. Then sometimes they only post top 4, top 2, or the winner. It's a mess.

    So even if you wanted to define the metagame by what gets played at ALL events including small LGS Legacy nights (D), mtgtop8 (E) does a messy job of representing it. If you really included ALL paper and online Legacy play, I'd wager the Tier 1 DTBs make up a tiny metagame fraction - while brews and casual jank take up a fair bit. But we don't have good data on it so we'll never know anyway.

    IMHO Large Events are the best indicator of the competitive metagame, especially to see if a deck is Tier 0. For small LGS weeklies and MTGO Leagues, players often play a worse deck for fun, even though they know their other deck is better, just because they're bored of Xerox. But when the large event comes up they pull out what they think is best. If Delver is 28% at large events, that says a lot about competitive dominance. The much lower share in small events just means people get bored of Delver, lower tier decks stand a better chance over fewer rounds (more variance), or the more casual players can't afford Volcanic.

    To make a fair comparison, look at the large events before Ragaban. I never said to compare it to a different metric from before.
    Last edited by FTW; 07-29-2022 at 04:51 PM.

  17. #23337
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FTW View Post
    Except I never gave a stat A, so I never did anything inconsistent. I only gave data for UR Delver's current metagame dominance. Your patronizing is then irrelevant.

    Where does this "before" stat come from? Reeplcheep compared Challenges before and after Ragaban: apples to apples. Nothing wrong there. You pulled out 22% without a source or anyone agreeing on it.

    You have to decide on a reasonable way to measure competitive metagame share:
    a) Large Events only
    b) All MTGO Legacy events (Challenges & Leagues, not practice room)
    c) All Paper Legacy events
    d) All Paper and online events (b + c)
    e) Paper and online events logged on mtgtop8

    They won't all be the same. The online meta (B) is a bit different from the paper meta (C).

    D & E are also different. mtgtop8 has good coverage of large events, but very inconsistent coverage of small events. Some LGS weeklies get posted, most don't. Once in a while an MTGO League result makes it up, but most of the 5-0 dump doesn't. It's a real crapshoot what makes it on there. Very far from all small events. It's not a random sample of them either. Just some of them. Then sometimes they only post top 4, top 2, or the winner. It's a mess.

    So even if you wanted to define the metagame by what gets played at ALL events including small LGS Legacy nights (D), mtgtop8 (E) does a messy job of representing it. If you really included ALL paper and online Legacy play, I'd wager the Tier 1 DTBs make up a tiny metagame fraction - while brews and casual jank take up a fair bit. But we don't have good data on it so we'll never know anyway.

    IMHO Large Events are the best indicator of the competitive metagame, especially to see if a deck is Tier 0. For small LGS weeklies and MTGO Leagues, players often play a worse deck for fun, even though they know their other deck is better, just because they're bored of Xerox. But when the large event comes up they pull out what they think is best. If Delver is 28% at large events, that says a lot about competitive dominance. The much lower share in small events just means people get bored of Delver, lower tier decks stand a better chance over fewer rounds (more variance), or the more casual players can't afford Volcanic.

    To make a fair comparison, look at the large events before Ragaban. I never said to compare it to a different metric from before.
    I was going to respond to this earlier but I failed to dig up actual screenshots of the data I'm referencing. That is my failure to take adequate screenshots I guess. I just remember Ragavan-Delver topping out at higher on the same site

    To be clear, it's still way too prevalent. Wizards decided to take what was arguably already the best deck/archetype in the format and give it four insanely powerful new cards, and then banned one. And I'm completely open to the argument that Ragavan was the weakest of those four, if the swingiest.

    But the idea that banning Ragavan was helping Izzet Delver is still stupid. What's helping Izzet Delver is that they printed three insanely powerful cards to an already tier 1 strategy in the past 18 months or so.
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  18. #23338
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Here's a guy who makes good calls about what cards do and will be played, definitely listening to this guy
    Also pointed out how I literally said Expressive Iteration was going to have to be banned and got laughed at by people who now think they're geniuses of card strength analysis.
    For my confessions, they burned me with fire/
    And found I was for endurance made

  19. #23339

    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by TheInfamousBearAssassin View Post
    Also pointed out how I literally said Expressive Iteration was going to have to be banned and got laughed at by people who now think they're geniuses of card strength analysis.
    I still laugh.
    There's a still quite a few cards ahead of it. In power and banability.

    Well maybe not laugh. I did get a good laugh in the dreadnought threads now that they're playing 4 Expressive Iterations like I said they should. I didn't want to say anything but if we're pointing our calls I got one, too!

  20. #23340
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    Re: All B/R update speculation.

    Quote Originally Posted by FourDogsinaHorseSuit View Post
    I still laugh.
    There's a still quite a few cards ahead of it. In power and banability.

    Well maybe not laugh. I did get a good laugh in the dreadnought threads now that they're playing 4 Expressive Iterations like I said they should. I didn't want to say anything but if we're pointing our calls I got one, too!
    At the same time, if you play Dreadnought you know how crappy EI is in Delver. The card is beyond pathetic if you challenge their mana. The ones complaining most about Iteration refuse to adapt and b/c of that failure to adapt they put themselves in the abyss where Delver is able to loop EI-Daze-Sanctuary.

    In the same way people that refuse to adapt and build a deck that doesn't die to Goyf keep losing to MurkGoyf.

    If you want to break the cycle, Daze is the only ban worth considering. This Delver stuff is less pressing however than banning the already banned cards Mind Twist and Timetwister (Day's, Echo).

    Most legacy players want to sit there and cite a 55% non-mirror winrate instead of understanding concepts...so if the winrate is below 55%, why are they complaining? Want to fix the problem - ban Daze.

    Guess what happens if you ban Iteration: Predict + DRC. Then hooray for spending the next 9 months saying "we have to ban DRC"...

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