All B/R update speculation.

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

Peer into the Abyss sees much play. Bargain is cheaper and draws almost as many cards.

It really doesn’t and it really doesn’t

[TheInfamousBearAssassin]

Bargain would be an interesting unban. It seems to fit neatly from a mana cost and power standpoint along with the other black draw/tutor effects. If you look at it this way:

Beseech the Mirror = 4 mana, tutor for another 4 mana card and play for free if you Bargain
Ad Nauseam = 5 mana, draw X cards where X is equal to the mana cost of the cards you reveal
Yawgmoth's Bargain = 6 mana, draw X cards where X is 1 less than your life total (this is the only that is banned)
Peer into the Abyss = 7 mana, draw approximately 20+ cards depending on the turn when it is cast
Griselbrand = 8 mana, draw in 7 card increments up to your life total, but also the ability to gain life over subsequent turns

The only banned card is the 6 mana card which is Yawgmoth's Bargain which is basically draw X cards where X is 1 less than your life total. That X varies depends which turn you play this card. It can be at most 19, but that assumes you never play a fetchland, never took damage, never cast a thoughtseize, etc. The power level of the cards should rise as does the mana cost. If you look at Peer and Griselbrand they are more powerful than Bargain and Bargain seems more powerful than Ad Nauseam or Beseech the Mirror, but it isn't clear that it actually nets you more card advantage than those cards. Ad Nauseam can draw you more cards since when you draw lands and 0 mana artifacts you don't take any life lose. When you draw a land with Bargain, it still costs you 1 life. Finally, it should be noted that Bargain is the only one of these cards that costs you your draw step, which means that if you can't win with the cards you draw off it, you lose.

Also you’re actually far more vulnerable to burn and just getting aggro’d with Bargain than you are with Peer.

But yeah drawing it up on the options along the mana curve highlights how silly the ban is.

[FTW]

It really doesn’t and it really doesn’t

Before Beseech the Mirror, Peer was a staple in TES and other ANT/storm with even 1 Burning Wish. It's only dropped off since Beseech.

Beseech is better than those 5-8 mana cards so it's outcompeting all of them now.

Edit: Peer still sees play in Storm builds playing around artifact hate (Cabal Ritual instead of Mox Opal, which means Ad Naus & Peer instead of Beseech):
https://www.mtgtop8.com/event?e=62799&d=674127&f=LE

Edit2: I am not arguing Bargain should be banned, but that it's more playable than Mind's Desire, and probably would have been played before Beseech existed.

[rufus]

This discussion seems very focused on the payoff side of the cards, but I think the cost is really what makes the bargain a plausible un-ban: I get the impression that the power level of legacy is such that even "If you cast this spell you win the game" as a cmc 6 sorcery wouldn't be ban-worthy. After all, Ad Nauseam already comes close to doing that as a 5 cost instant in a color with rituals.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

Combo decks need to lose to force

Was that really a problem? I'd have thought the combo decks would have had a somewhat harder time working around it than exploiting it.

[FTW]

Was that really a problem? I'd have thought the combo decks would have had a somewhat harder time working around it than exploiting it.

Yes, the Legacy metagame was over 40% combo, control was borderline unplayable. Top win%s at Eternal Weekend were all combo decks (not just Froginator), control had losing records.

It wasn't all Bauble. But between combo protected by Force/Daze and combo protected by Bauble, there were no good matchups for control to farm, while they got pounded by the top aggro decks too.

The 2nd best "control" deck on mtgtop8 was Stiflenought (a tempo deck with a creature combo finish).

[Goaswerfraiejen]

Yes, the Legacy metagame was over 40% combo, control was borderline unplayable. Top win%s at Eternal Weekend were all combo decks (not just Froginator), control had losing records.

It wasn't all Bauble. But between combo protected by Force/Daze and combo protected by Bauble, there were no good matchups for control to farm, while they got pounded by the top aggro decks too.

The 2nd best "control" deck on mtgtop8 was Stiflenought (a tempo deck with a creature combo finish).

Since I haven't paid attention in a few months, I have to ask: which combo? Was it several different ones protecting themselves against FoW/Daze/Solitude/Endurance/FoV, or one in particular?

[FTW]

Since I haven't paid attention in a few months, I have to ask: which combo? Was it several different ones protecting themselves against FoW/Daze/Solitude/Endurance/FoV, or one in particular?

Any combo deck that doesn't protect itself with FoW could jam Bauble for protection:
Mystic Forge
Painter
Storm
Etc

It's a colorless turn 1 play, easy for any nonblue combo deck to fit in.

Blue combos already run Force/Daze (Nadu, Doomsday, Breakfast, UB Reanimator). Between the two, it was a bad time to be playing the police (fair blue) instead of the combo player.

[Goaswerfraiejen]

Any combo deck that doesn't protect itself with FoW could jam Bauble for protection:
Mystic Forge
Painter
Storm
Etc

It's a colorless turn 1 play, easy for any nonblue combo deck to fit in.

Blue combos already run Force/Daze (Nadu, Doomsday, Breakfast, UB Reanimator). Between the two, it was a bad time to be playing the police (fair blue) instead of the combo player.

Yes, but was the 40% a single combo deck, or made up of several different combo decks?

[Whoshim]

Here is the top 8 of major events in the last 4 months: https://mtgtop8.com/format?f=LE&meta=188&a=

It was largely Reanimator, but other combo decks like Mystic Forge and Painter were there. You can see the low percentage of control decks as well.

[FTW]

Yes, but was the 40% a single combo deck, or made up of several different combo decks?

The main offender was Mystic Forge, which had a 57%+ win rate at Eternal Weekends including winning 1st in North America.

Painter also played 3-4 Bauble and became one of the top decks (but not oppressive). When you can't FoW/FoV/Daze/FoN/Surgical/Solitude them, you can get Grindstoned out of nowhere.

Some TES and ANT ran Bauble, though those decks were not as well positioned in the meta in general.

Forge had a small meta presence (Froginator was more popular) but high win rate and could be oppressive in a post-Frog meta.

I know the card doesn't look that unfair. Remember Arcum's Astrolabe and Gitaxian Probe are also banned. The problem is cards like this can be thrown in any deck. While you want them to improve fair fringe strategies, in practice they get used unfairly. Because any deck can run it, so the unfair one just uses it better, and the format is overall better without them. Turn 1 colorless cantrips have to be very weak to be fair (Mishra's Bauble). Vexing Bauble does so much at so little cost to run.